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Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | FCL Tigers East | 13 | 0 | 20 | 87 | 18 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 14.1% | 12.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 4.12 | 3.55 | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | FCL Tigers East | 13 | 0 | 20 | 87 | 18 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 0.0% | 4.12 | 2.64 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | FCL Tigers East | 11 | 1 | 29 | 124 | 29 | 17 | 0 | 9% | 2.7 | 15.9% | 17.1% | -1.2% | 0.0% | 3.68 | 3.93 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | FCL Tigers East | 11 | 1 | 29 | 124 | 29 | 17 | 0 | 9% | 2.7 | 23.4% | 13.7% | 9.7% | 0.0% | 3.68 | 2.86 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | FCL Tigers East | 12 | 0 | 12 | 70 | 12 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.7% | 30.4% | -18.7% | 4.0% | 13.89 | 8.16 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | FCL Tigers East | 12 | 0 | 12 | 70 | 12 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.1% | 24.3% | -7.1% | 2.9% | 13.89 | 7.64 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Tigers West | 17 | 0 | 28 | 141 | 41 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.7 | 19.8% | 23.0% | -3.3% | 4.9% | 6.67 | 7.04 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | FCL Tigers West | 17 | 0 | 28 | 141 | 41 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.7 | 29.1% | 18.4% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 6.67 | 4.79 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 37 | 171 | 61 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.3% | 17.7% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 5.30 | 4.60 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 37 | 171 | 61 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 35.7% | 14.6% | 21.1% | 2.9% | 5.30 | 3.58 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 30 | 1 | 31 | 149 | 32 | 26 | 1 | 3% | 1.0 | 16.5% | 20.1% | -3.5% | 1.1% | 5.58 | 4.85 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 30 | 1 | 31 | 149 | 32 | 26 | 1 | 3% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 17.4% | 4.0% | 0.7% | 5.58 | 3.98 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 37 | 160 | 57 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.8% | 16.4% | 11.3% | 2.3% | 4.14 | 4.12 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 37 | 160 | 57 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 35.6% | 13.8% | 21.9% | 1.9% | 4.14 | 2.86 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 34 | 1 | 39 | 185 | 51 | 33 | 7 | 3% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 19.1% | 0.3% | 5.0% | 7.38 | 6.64 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | PHI | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 69 | 41 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 16.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.81 | 4.81 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | PHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 16.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.81 | 4.81 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 98 | 436 | 120 | 74 | 14 | — | — | 27.6% | 17.0% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 5.83 | 5.54 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 27.7% | 16.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.81 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 66 | 38 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.1% | 15.8% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 4.81 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 52 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 62 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.6% | 15.5% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 4.87 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 49 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 57 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.1% | 15.5% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.98 | 5.08 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 25 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.1% | 15.8% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 4.81 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 35 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.6% | 15.5% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 4.87 | 4.93 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 39 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.1% | 15.5% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.98 | 5.08 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 85 | 0 | 89 | 375 | 99 | 58 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.5% | 15.6% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 4.90 | 4.59 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 223 | 131 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.5% | 15.6% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 4.90 | 4.59 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 175 | 3 | 233 | 1087 | 215 | 208 | 28 | 2% | 1.3 | 19.7% | 19.1% | 0.6% | 2.6% | 5.79 | 5.30 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 150 | 3 | 200 | 933 | 184 | 179 | 24 | 2% | 1.3 | 19.7% | 19.1% | 0.6% | 2.6% | 5.79 | 5.30 | +0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cristhian Tortosa (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.81 | 27.7% | 16.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.95 | 26.6% | 11.0% | 165 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Andy Oliver L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 1.5% | .283 | 5.02 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 108 | +0.94 | 4.08 | 165 | 83 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.79 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.91 | 3.88 | 269 | 80 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 27.4% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .284 | 3.06 | 23.4% | 16.7% | 53 | -0.80 | 3.06 | 145 | 78 |
| Erik Rivera L 2024 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.69 | 25.3% | 15.4% | 3.2% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 122 | 78 |
| Brandon Neeck L 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.88 | 28.8% | 19.7% | 1.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 171 | 77 |
| Trey Jeans L 2025 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.12 | 22.3% | 16.5% | 3.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 111 | 76 |
| Mike Dunn L 2029 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 76 |
| Samy Natera Jr. L 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.07 | 32.0% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.94 | 191 | 75 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.82 | 24.6% | 14.1% | 1.8% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 161 | 75 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2025 · 5.07 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.07 | 23.3% | 16.1% | 3.5% | .215 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 152 | 75 |
| Rex Brothers L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.02 | 27.2% | 23.5% | 0.5% | .286 | 4.09 | 26.4% | 9.1% | 64 | +0.07 | 3.10 | 205 | 75 |
| Travis Bergen L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.91 | 26.7% | 15.9% | 1.9% | .308 | 4.83 | 19.3% | -1.2% | 24 | +0.92 | 2.52 | 143 | 74 |
| Jake Rice L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.63 | 21.8% | 13.8% | 1.1% | .273 | 6.46 | 16.9% | -1.3% | 54 | +2.83 | 3.29 | 199 | 74 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 203 | 74 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.24 | 23.8% | 11.7% | 3.0% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 265 | 73 |
| Reagan Todd L 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.74 | 25.6% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 122 | 73 |
| Sam Freeman L 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 2.3% | .265 | 3.53 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 166 | -0.70 | 3.03 | 299 | 72 |
| Hayden Harris L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 24.0% | 19.6% | 1.4% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.86 | 180 | 72 |
| Amir Garrett L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.65 | 31.7% | 13.8% | 2.7% | .291 | 3.80 | 28.5% | 15.3% | 111 | +0.15 | 3.06 | 712 | 71 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.69 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 4.1% | .296 | 2.67 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -2.02 | 2.51 | 160 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 56 | 26.9% | 15.8% | 1.20 | 4.86 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |