Edward Cabrera — OGILVIE

Edward Cabrera P Chicago Cubs

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 217 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.8 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION90 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.27

FIP4.23

K%22.7%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%13.0%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7496.2

Whiff%

p5826.6%

p3820.4%

xwOBA vs

p230.344

CH+2.3 (30%)

SL+1.3 (12%)

FB+0.9 (38%)

SI (21%)

CU (20%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2021

Service 3.855 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.4M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-2	$4M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-3	$4M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.4M		$-1M	-$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	11	7	47	201	28	10	1	64%	4.3	9.5%	6.2%	3.3%	0.7%	4.21	3.47	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	GCL Marlins	11	7	47	201	28	10	1	64%	4.3	13.9%	5.0%	9.0%	0.5%	4.21	2.82	—
2018	20	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	22	22	100	440	93	42	11	100%	4.6	15.6%	11.3%	4.4%	2.9%	4.22	4.80	—
2018	20	A RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	22	22	100	440	93	42	11	100%	4.6	21.1%	9.5%	11.6%	2.5%	4.22	3.93	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	97	383	116	31	7	100%	5.1	23.8%	9.1%	14.6%	2.5%	2.23	3.60	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	97	383	116	31	7	100%	5.1	30.3%	8.1%	22.2%	1.8%	2.23	2.60	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	20	20	88	369	120	44	13	100%	4.4	28.0%	13.2%	14.9%	4.3%	3.80	4.76	+0.1
2021	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	20	20	88	369	120	44	13	100%	4.4	32.5%	11.9%	20.6%	3.5%	3.80	3.80	+1.2
2022	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	23	23	110	442	129	49	12	100%	4.8	26.9%	11.2%	15.7%	3.1%	2.94	3.96	+1.2
2022	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	23	23	110	442	129	49	12	100%	4.8	29.2%	11.1%	18.1%	2.7%	2.94	3.51	+1.9
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	128	547	148	78	13	93%	4.7	26.1%	14.0%	12.1%	2.5%	3.80	4.05	+1.3
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	128	547	148	78	13	93%	4.7	26.1%	14.0%	12.1%	2.5%	3.80	4.05	+1.3
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	128	547	148	78	13	93%	4.7	27.1%	14.3%	12.8%	2.4%	3.80	3.94	+1.5
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	119	514	134	62	15	100%	4.6	25.2%	11.8%	13.3%	3.1%	4.46	4.16	+1.0
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	119	514	134	62	15	100%	4.6	25.2%	11.8%	13.3%	3.1%	4.46	4.16	+1.0
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	119	514	134	62	15	100%	4.6	26.1%	12.1%	14.0%	2.9%	4.46	4.05	+1.2
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	145	610	160	48	18	100%	5.2	25.8%	8.3%	17.6%	3.1%	3.48	3.66	+2.2
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	145	610	160	48	18	100%	5.2	25.8%	8.3%	17.6%	3.1%	3.48	3.66	+2.2
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	145	610	160	48	18	100%	5.2	26.2%	7.9%	18.4%	3.0%	3.48	3.50	+2.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			104	102	508	2173	545	248	74	98%	4.9	25.1%	11.4%	13.7%	3.4%	4.31	4.31	+3.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	21	18	90	386	89	37	16	86%	4.3	20.4%	9.7%	10.6%	4.7%	5.68	5.21	-0.3
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	21	18	90	386	89	37	16	86%	4.3	20.4%	9.7%	10.6%	4.7%	5.68	5.21	-0.3
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	CHC	1	1	5	16	7	1	0	100%	5.0	43.8%	6.2%	37.5%	0.0%	0.00	0.20	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	CHC	5	2	9	41	15	4	1	40%	1.9	36.6%	9.8%	26.8%	2.4%	8.68	2.59	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	CHC	15	15	76	329	67	32	15	100%	5.1	20.4%	9.7%	10.6%	4.6%	5.68	5.11	-0.2
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	CHC	15	15	76	329	67	32	15	100%	5.1	20.4%	9.7%	10.6%	4.6%	5.68	5.11	-0.2
ROS	28	MLB MLE	CHC	2	2	10	43	10	4	1	100%	5.1	22.7%	9.7%	13.0%	3.3%	4.27	4.23	+0.1
ROS	28	MLB CTX	CHC	2	2	10	42	10	4	1	100%	5.0	22.7%	9.7%	13.0%	3.2%	4.21	4.17	+0.1
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	100	429	99	41	17	—	—	23.0%	9.6%	13.4%	4.1%	5.54	5.11	-0.2
FULL	28	MLB A+C	CHC	—	—	86	364	99	41	17	—	—	27.1%	11.3%	15.8%	4.8%	6.45	4.86	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	CHC	19	19	115	485	110	48	19	100%	6.0	22.7%	10.0%	12.7%	3.8%	4.87	4.92	-0.0
2028	30	MLB MLE	CHC	18	18	108	456	100	47	18	100%	6.0	22.0%	10.3%	11.7%	4.0%	5.03	5.13	-0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	CHC	19	19	115	486	110	48	18	100%	6.1	22.7%	10.0%	12.7%	3.7%	4.79	4.84	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	CHC	18	18	108	456	100	47	18	100%	6.0	22.0%	10.3%	11.7%	3.9%	4.95	5.05	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		143	141	741	3157	765	347	111	99%	5.2	24.2%	11.0%	13.2%	3.5%	4.47	4.37	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	38	200	852	207	94	30	99%	5.2	24.2%	11.0%	13.2%	3.5%	4.47	4.37	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		197	188	924	3892	909	421	120	95%	4.7	23.4%	10.8%	12.6%	3.1%	3.82	4.18	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	41	200	842	197	91	26	95%	4.7	23.4%	10.8%	12.6%	3.1%	3.82	4.18	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Edward Cabrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.17	26.5%	9.8%	3.1%	—	5.02	22.4%	12.3%	223	+0.85	—	—	—
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,146	72
Anthony DeSclafani R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	22.3%	5.8%	4.6%	.290	3.95	22.6%	16.0%	368	-0.52	3.38	981	66
Jake Odorizzi R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	28	SP	3.91	22.8%	9.4%	2.8%	.284	3.73	24.3%	16.6%	277	-0.18	3.16	1,048	65
Chris Tillman R 2016 · 3.92 FIP	28	SP	3.92	19.6%	9.1%	2.4%	.277	5.96	12.2%	0.4%	144	+2.04	3.92	489	64
Nathan Eovaldi R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	28	SP	3.49	22.2%	4.2%	3.2%	.283	3.44	25.1%	19.2%	298	-0.05	2.44	1,378	64
Dan Straily R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	28	SP	4.48	22.1%	7.3%	4.2%	.283	5.36	18.7%	10.3%	237	+0.88	3.50	890	62
Jordan Lyles R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	28	SP	4.34	24.4%	8.8%	4.0%	.283	4.70	18.1%	10.8%	417	+0.36	3.44	1,080	62
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	62
Zack Godley R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	28	SP	3.56	23.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.315	5.07	17.6%	6.5%	219	+1.51	3.21	953	61
JC Ramírez R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	16.9%	7.7%	3.3%	.287	5.48	12.2%	2.1%	41	+1.01	3.75	369	60
Jacob deGrom R 2016 · 3.22 FIP	28	SP	3.22	23.7%	6.0%	2.5%	.310	2.46	31.0%	25.4%	622	-0.76	0.74	1,538	60
Tylor Megill R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	28	SP	4.62	16.9%	9.8%	3.1%	.322	3.35	26.9%	16.7%	205	-1.27	3.02	603	59
Sonny Gray R 2018 · 3.79 FIP	28	SP-	3.79	21.1%	9.8%	2.2%	.320	3.21	28.5%	19.1%	367	-0.58	2.55	1,792	59
Jesse Hahn R 2017 · 3.66 FIP	28	SP	3.66	16.6%	9.7%	1.3%	.327	2.19	29.2%	16.9%	17	-1.47	2.19	426	58
Nate Karns R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	28	SP-	3.88	24.2%	10.6%	2.7%	.322	4.46	27.1%	20.7%	45	+0.58	3.88	287	58
Nick Tropeano R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	28	SP-	4.96	20.3%	9.2%	4.4%	.336	3.93	22.7%	10.0%	83	-1.03	2.34	446	57
Chris Archer R 2017 · 3.31 FIP	28	SP	3.31	29.2%	7.0%	3.3%	.322	4.20	26.2%	17.7%	268	+0.89	2.85	1,018	57
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	533	57
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	57
James Kaprielian R 2022 · 4.63 FIP	28	SP	4.63	17.0%	10.2%	3.0%	.260	5.64	17.4%	5.9%	110	+1.01	2.80	446	56

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	114	23.8%	10.0%	1.40	4.69
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.2	83	22.4%	8.9%	1.12	3.97
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47