Edward Cabrera
P
Chicago Cubs
+1.6
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'5" / 217 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 1.6 · 2026
ERA4.19
FIP4.20
xFIP4.32
SIERA4.86
K%25.6%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%15.8%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.6peak
2026
K†6565
FB Velo
p6795.7
Whiff%
p6227.1%
K%
p2618.7%
xwOBA vs
p370.327
CH+2.3 (34%)
SL+1.3 (11%)
FB+0.9 (35%)
SI (20%)
CU (20%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 11 | 7 | 47 | 201 | 28 | 10 | 1 | 9.5% | 6.2% | 0.7% | 4.21 | 3.47 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 20 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 22 | 22 | 100 | 440 | 93 | 42 | 11 | 15.6% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.82 | +0.5 |
| 2019 | 21 | AA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 19 | 19 | 97 | 383 | 116 | 31 | 7 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 2.23 | 3.60 | +1.8 |
| 2021 | 23 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 20 | 20 | 88 | 369 | 120 | 44 | 13 | 28.0% | 13.2% | 4.3% | 3.80 | 4.78 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 23 | 23 | 110 | 442 | 129 | 49 | 12 | 26.9% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 2.94 | 3.91 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 27 | 25 | 128 | 547 | 148 | 78 | 13 | 26.4% | 14.4% | 2.4% | 3.80 | 4.00 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 26 | 26 | 119 | 514 | 134 | 62 | 15 | 25.4% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.06 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 28 | 28 | 145 | 610 | 160 | 48 | 18 | 25.8% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 3.48 | 3.64 | +2.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 3 | 3 | 17 | 66 | 13 | 9 | 0 | 19.7% | 13.6% | 0.0% | 1.62 | 3.16 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CHC | 17 | 17 | 95 | 402 | 102 | 42 | 11 | 25.3% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 3.86 | 3.74 | +1.6 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 112 | 468 | 115 | 51 | 11 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | 3.53 | 3.65 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 18 | 18 | 102 | 429 | 107 | 45 | 12 | 24.9% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 4.19 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 17 | 17 | 92 | 387 | 94 | 41 | 11 | 24.4% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.28 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 15 | 15 | 82 | 347 | 83 | 37 | 10 | 23.8% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.33 | 4.39 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 74 | 310 | 78 | 31 | 9 | 25.1% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.23 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 68 | 28 | 8 | 24.5% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.36 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 58 | 25 | 8 | 23.8% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 49 | 23 | 7 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 41 | 20 | 6 | 22.3% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.71 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 179 | 173 | 850 | 3572 | 847 | 396 | 100 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 3.58 | 4.03 | +12.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 41 | 200 | 840 | 199 | 93 | 24 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 3.58 | 4.03 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Edward Cabrera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.08 | 27.3% | 9.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.28 | 24.4% | 13.8% | 276 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Mitch Atkins R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .341 | 4.75 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.05 | 3.70 | 205 | 60 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 60 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 60 |
| Jose Pina R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 59 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 59 |
| Michael Bowden R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.20 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 1.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 141 | 58 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 58 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 58 |
| Jacob Turner R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.43 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 57 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.94 | 20.6% | 12.8% | 3.6% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 328 | 57 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2029 · 4.52 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.52 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.86 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.34 | 4.52 | 150 | 57 |
| Joe Wieland R 2024 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.28 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 270 | 57 |
| Brett Sears R 2023 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 57 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 302 | 57 |
| Tim Atherton R 2023 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 57 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.95 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.69 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.74 | 3.69 | 283 | 57 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 56 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.37 | 14.6% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .311 | 3.92 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 44 | -0.45 | 3.92 | 272 | 56 |
| Taylor Jungmann R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.8% | 11.1% | 1.7% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 435 | 56 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 56 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-1
MLB Debut 2021
Service 3.855 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $4M | +1.6 | $13M | +$8M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $4M | +1.3 | $11M | +$6M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $5M | +1.0 | $8M | +$3M |
| Totals | $14M | $32M | +$18M | ||