Edward Cabrera
P
Chicago Cubs
Age 28
RHP
6'5" / 217 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 1.6 · 2026
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 48 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 102
ERA4.40
FIP4.36
K%23.2%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%13.6%
ROS IP48
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7296.1
Whiff%
p5726.4%
K%
p4221.0%
xwOBA vs
p280.338
CH+2.3 (30%)
SL+1.3 (11%)
FB+0.9 (38%)
SI (21%)
CU (20%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 11 | 7 | 47 | 201 | 28 | 10 | 1 | 64% | 4.3 | 9.5% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 4.21 | 3.47 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 11 | 7 | 47 | 201 | 28 | 10 | 1 | 64% | 4.3 | 13.9% | 5.0% | 9.0% | 0.5% | 4.21 | 2.82 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 22 | 22 | 100 | 440 | 93 | 42 | 11 | 100% | 4.6 | 15.6% | 11.3% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 4.22 | 4.65 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 22 | 22 | 100 | 440 | 93 | 42 | 11 | 100% | 4.6 | 21.1% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 2.5% | 4.22 | 3.93 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 97 | 383 | 116 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 5.1 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 14.6% | 2.8% | 2.23 | 3.78 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 97 | 383 | 116 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 5.1 | 30.3% | 8.1% | 22.2% | 1.8% | 2.23 | 2.60 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 20 | 20 | 88 | 369 | 120 | 44 | 13 | 100% | 4.4 | 28.0% | 13.2% | 14.9% | 4.5% | 3.80 | 4.87 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 20 | 20 | 88 | 369 | 120 | 44 | 13 | 100% | 4.4 | 32.5% | 11.9% | 20.6% | 3.5% | 3.80 | 3.80 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 23 | 23 | 110 | 442 | 129 | 49 | 12 | 100% | 4.8 | 26.9% | 11.2% | 15.7% | 3.1% | 2.94 | 3.96 | +1.9 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 23 | 23 | 110 | 442 | 129 | 49 | 12 | 100% | 4.8 | 29.2% | 11.1% | 18.1% | 2.7% | 2.94 | 3.51 | +2.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 128 | 547 | 148 | 78 | 13 | 93% | 4.7 | 26.4% | 14.4% | 12.0% | 2.5% | 3.80 | 4.07 | +2.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 128 | 547 | 148 | 78 | 13 | 93% | 4.7 | 27.1% | 14.3% | 12.8% | 2.4% | 3.80 | 3.94 | +2.2 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 119 | 514 | 134 | 62 | 15 | 100% | 4.6 | 25.4% | 12.2% | 13.3% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.19 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 119 | 514 | 134 | 62 | 15 | 100% | 4.6 | 26.1% | 12.1% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.05 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 145 | 610 | 160 | 48 | 18 | 100% | 5.2 | 25.8% | 8.3% | 17.6% | 3.1% | 3.48 | 3.67 | +2.9 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 145 | 610 | 160 | 48 | 18 | 100% | 5.2 | 26.2% | 7.9% | 18.4% | 3.0% | 3.48 | 3.50 | +3.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 14 | 14 | 72 | 309 | 65 | 29 | 14 | 100% | 5.2 | 21.0% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 4.5% | 5.10 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CHC | 8 | 8 | 48 | 204 | 47 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 13.6% | 3.6% | 4.40 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | CHC | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 47 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 13.6% | 3.7% | 4.42 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 121 | 513 | 112 | 49 | 21 | — | — | 21.9% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 4.2% | 4.82 | 4.74 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 121 | 509 | 112 | 49 | 22 | — | — | 22.1% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 4.2% | 4.83 | 4.77 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 19 | 115 | 485 | 112 | 48 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 3.8% | 4.81 | 4.85 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 18 | 18 | 108 | 456 | 103 | 46 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.5% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 4.0% | 4.96 | 5.06 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 17 | 17 | 101 | 425 | 92 | 45 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.7% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 4.2% | 5.16 | 5.29 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 19 | 115 | 486 | 113 | 48 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 3.8% | 4.84 | 4.88 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 18 | 18 | 108 | 456 | 103 | 46 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.5% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 4.0% | 4.99 | 5.09 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 17 | 17 | 101 | 426 | 93 | 45 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.7% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 4.3% | 5.19 | 5.32 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 166 | 164 | 876 | 3723 | 898 | 403 | 136 | 99% | 5.3 | 24.1% | 10.8% | 13.3% | 3.6% | 4.51 | 4.44 | +9.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 38 | 200 | 850 | 205 | 92 | 31 | 99% | 5.3 | 24.1% | 10.8% | 13.3% | 3.6% | 4.51 | 4.44 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 190 | 184 | 906 | 3815 | 899 | 416 | 116 | 97% | 4.8 | 23.6% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 3.1% | 3.74 | 4.17 | +13.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 41 | 200 | 842 | 198 | 92 | 26 | 97% | 4.8 | 23.6% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 3.1% | 3.74 | 4.17 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Edward Cabrera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.18 | 26.6% | 9.9% | 3.1% | — | 5.06 | 22.5% | 12.3% | 324 | +0.88 | — | — | — |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.05 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 4.5% | .285 | 4.43 | 21.3% | 13.3% | 438 | -0.62 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 59 |
| Joe Wieland R 2024 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 56 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .302 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.88 | 533 | 56 |
| Kodai Senga R 2028 · 3.40 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.40 | 29.1% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .274 | 4.64 | 22.8% | 10.3% | 164 | +1.24 | 3.40 | 330 | 56 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.98 | 20.6% | 12.8% | 3.6% | .291 | 5.54 | 14.1% | -1.8% | 25 | +0.56 | 4.39 | 353 | 56 |
| Ian Kennedy R 2028 · 4.46 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.46 | 24.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | .293 | 4.91 | 21.1% | 13.0% | 469 | +0.45 | 2.87 | 864 | 55 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.11 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .330 | 5.14 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 62 | +1.03 | 3.49 | 355 | 55 |
| Matt Buschmann R 2029 · 3.92 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.92 | 17.2% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .282 | 4.71 | 12.8% | 4.4% | 142 | +0.79 | 3.92 | 277 | 54 |
| Charlie Morton R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.55 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 2.1% | .302 | 3.11 | 27.7% | 18.9% | 331 | -0.44 | 2.55 | 1,534 | 54 |
| Andrew Cashner R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.77 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 2.5% | .326 | 4.61 | 15.0% | 5.7% | 452 | +0.84 | 3.77 | 786 | 54 |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 3.8% | .333 | 4.43 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | +0.05 | 3.67 | 381 | 54 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 54 |
| Jake Odorizzi R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.90 | 22.8% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .284 | 3.67 | 24.3% | 16.6% | 277 | -0.23 | 3.16 | 1,048 | 54 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.02 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 1.9% | .306 | 4.58 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.56 | 4.02 | 203 | 54 |
| Josh Lowey R 2028 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.30 | 21.1% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .311 | 2.34 | 26.7% | 20.1% | 231 | -0.96 | 2.28 | 426 | 54 |
| Matt Shoemaker R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.51 | 20.4% | 5.8% | 4.4% | .280 | 3.83 | 21.8% | 15.9% | 269 | -0.68 | 3.24 | 592 | 54 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .292 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 7.8% | 118 | +0.05 | 3.22 | 254 | 53 |
| Chris Tillman R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.95 | 19.6% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .277 | 6.04 | 12.2% | 0.4% | 144 | +2.09 | 3.95 | 489 | 53 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2028 · 3.37 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.37 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.49 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.12 | 3.37 | 205 | 53 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 53 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 108 | 23.5% | 10.1% | 1.46 | 4.78 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Triston McKenzie ('24) | 4 | 105 | 26.0% | 9.4% | 1.52 | 3.94 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| Josiah Gray ('23) | 3 | 126 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 1.88 | 4.64 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |