Edward Cabrera

P Chicago Cubs

Age 29 RHP 6'5" / 217 lbs MLB peak 0.6 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	26	26	119	4.46	4.05	26.1%	12.1%	1.9	K 25.3% · BB 11.8% · FIP 4.15
2025	27	MIX2 levels	28	28	145	3.48	3.50	26.2%	7.9%	3.3	K 25.8% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.66
2026	28	MIX3 levels	24	18	94	5.92	4.77	22.9%	10.1%	0.7	K 20.3% · BB 10.3% · FIP 5.30
2027PROJ	29	MLBCHC	12	12	72	4.72	4.69	24.1%	9.6%	0.6
2028PROJ	30	MLBCHC	12	12	71	4.83	4.90	23.4%	9.9%	0.4
2029PROJ	31	MLBCHC	10	10	61	5.01	5.13	22.6%	10.3%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo75

K%37

xwOBA vs16

CompsAlexi Ogando (age 29) · Ross Ohlendorf (age 29) · Mike Clevinger (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.72

FIP4.69

K%24.1%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%14.5%

Proj IP72

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7596.3

Whiff%

p5826.5%

p3720.3%

xwOBA vs

p160.352

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	11	7	47	201	28	10	1	64%	4.3	9.5%	6.2%	3.3%	0.7%	4.21	3.47	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	GCL Marlins	11	7	47	201	28	10	1	64%	4.3	13.9%	5.0%	9.0%	0.5%	4.21	2.82	—
2018	20	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	22	22	100	440	93	42	11	100%	4.6	15.6%	11.3%	4.4%	2.9%	4.22	4.80	—
2018	20	A RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	22	22	100	440	93	42	11	100%	4.6	21.1%	9.5%	11.6%	2.5%	4.22	3.93	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	97	383	116	31	7	100%	5.1	23.8%	9.1%	14.6%	2.5%	2.23	3.60	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	97	383	116	31	7	100%	5.1	30.3%	8.1%	22.2%	1.8%	2.23	2.60	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	20	20	88	369	120	44	13	100%	4.4	28.0%	13.2%	14.9%	4.3%	3.80	4.76	+0.7
2021	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	20	20	88	369	120	44	13	100%	4.4	32.5%	11.9%	20.6%	3.5%	3.80	3.80	+1.7
2022	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	23	23	110	442	129	49	12	100%	4.8	26.9%	11.2%	15.7%	3.1%	2.94	3.96	+1.9
2022	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	23	23	110	442	129	49	12	100%	4.8	29.2%	11.1%	18.1%	2.7%	2.94	3.51	+2.5
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	128	547	148	78	13	93%	4.7	26.3%	14.0%	12.2%	2.5%	3.80	4.03	+2.1
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	128	547	148	78	13	93%	4.7	27.1%	14.3%	12.8%	2.4%	3.80	3.94	+2.2
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	119	514	134	62	15	100%	4.6	25.3%	11.8%	13.5%	3.1%	4.46	4.15	+1.8
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	119	514	134	62	15	100%	4.6	25.3%	11.8%	13.5%	3.1%	4.46	4.15	+1.8
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	119	514	134	62	15	100%	4.6	26.1%	12.1%	14.0%	2.9%	4.46	4.05	+1.9
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	145	610	160	48	18	100%	5.2	25.8%	8.3%	17.6%	3.1%	3.48	3.66	+3.1
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	145	610	160	48	18	100%	5.2	25.8%	8.3%	17.6%	3.1%	3.48	3.66	+3.1
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	145	610	160	48	18	100%	5.2	26.2%	7.9%	18.4%	3.0%	3.48	3.50	+3.3
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	18	94	407	93	41	17	75%	3.9	20.3%	10.3%	10.0%	4.7%	5.92	5.30	+0.1
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	18	94	407	93	41	17	75%	3.9	20.3%	10.3%	10.0%	4.7%	5.92	5.30	+0.1
2026	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	18	94	407	93	41	17	75%	3.9	22.9%	10.1%	12.8%	4.2%	5.92	4.77	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			107	102	512	2194	549	252	75	95%	4.8	25.0%	11.5%	13.5%	3.4%	4.36	4.34	+6.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CHC	12	12	72	304	73	29	11	100%	6.0	24.1%	9.6%	14.5%	3.7%	4.72	4.69	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	71	299	70	30	12	100%	5.9	23.4%	9.9%	13.5%	3.9%	4.83	4.90	+0.4
2029	31	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	61	256	58	26	11	100%	6.1	22.6%	10.3%	12.4%	4.1%	5.01	5.13	+0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	71	300	70	30	12	100%	5.9	23.4%	9.9%	13.5%	3.9%	4.83	4.90	+0.4
2029	31	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	61	258	58	26	11	100%	6.1	22.6%	10.3%	12.4%	4.1%	5.01	5.13	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		129	124	643	2749	677	308	97	96%	5.0	24.6%	11.2%	13.4%	3.5%	4.47	4.38	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	39	200	855	211	96	30	96%	5.0	24.6%	11.2%	13.4%	3.5%	4.47	4.38	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		200	188	928	3913	915	425	121	94%	4.6	23.4%	10.9%	12.5%	3.1%	3.85	4.20	+6.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	41	200	843	197	92	26	94%	4.6	23.4%	10.9%	12.5%	3.1%	3.85	4.20	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIowa Cubs · 9 IPFIP 2.59 → 3.03 (+0.44)K% 36.6% → 31.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.59%	—	×0.860	31.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.76%	—	×0.900	8.78%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.68%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.59 → 3.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 7 IPFIP 2.08 → 2.90 (+0.82)K% 34.5% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.48%	—	×0.860	29.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×0.900	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.45%	÷0.903	×1.100	4.20%

Result: FIP 2.08 → 2.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 23 IPFIP 2.31 → 2.48 (+0.17)K% 28.1% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.12%	—	×0.860	24.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×0.900	11.25%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.925	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.31 → 2.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 28 IPFIP 3.17 → 3.42 (+0.24)K% 26.5% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.55%	—	×0.860	22.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.62%	—	×0.900	9.56%
HR / BF /BF	1.77%	÷1.031	×1.100	1.89%

Result: FIP 3.17 → 3.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 29 IPFIP 2.52 → 2.99 (+0.47)K% 33.6% → 29.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.62%	—	×0.880	29.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.34%	—	×1.050	10.86%
HR / BF /BF	1.72%	÷1.032	×1.100	1.84%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 2.52 → 2.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 6 IPFIP 0.36 → 1.06 (+0.71)K% 40.0% → 32.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.810	32.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.00%	—	×1.100	5.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.048	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 0.36 → 1.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 29 IPFIP 3.53 → 4.41 (+0.88)K% 37.2% → 32.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.21%	—	×0.880	32.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.73%	—	×1.050	15.47%
HR / BF /BF	3.10%	÷0.886	×1.100	3.85%

Result: FIP 3.53 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 26 IPFIP 2.71 → 3.65 (+0.94)K% 34.0% → 27.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.02%	—	×0.810	27.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.19%	—	×1.100	6.80%
HR / BF /BF	3.09%	÷1.011	×1.200	3.67%

Result: FIP 2.71 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Edward Cabrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.7%	—	5.01	23.0%	13.0%	131	+0.32	—	—	—
Alexi Ogando R 2013 · 4.22 FIP	29	SP-	4.22	16.8%	9.3%	2.5%	.249	4.43	19.0%	8.4%	122	+0.21	2.83	538	62
Ross Ohlendorf R 2012 · 4.60 FIP	29	SP-	4.60	16.7%	10.3%	2.9%	.337	3.67	20.8%	14.6%	116	-0.93	3.30	617	62
Mike Clevinger R 2020 · 4.09 FIP	29	SP	4.09	24.7%	8.6%	3.6%	.275	4.24	19.4%	12.2%	246	+0.15	2.28	1,236	60
John Maine R 2010 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	20.5%	12.6%	4.2%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.91	582	59
Jesse Hahn R 2017 · 3.66 FIP	28	SP	3.66	16.6%	9.7%	1.3%	.327	2.19	29.2%	16.9%	17	-1.47	2.19	499	59
Claudio Vargas R 2007 · 4.76 FIP	29	SP-	4.76	17.7%	8.4%	3.8%	.307	4.10	16.8%	8.2%	98	-0.66	3.66	765	58
Domingo Germán R 2022 · 4.16 FIP	29	SP	4.16	19.5%	6.4%	3.5%	.257	4.65	22.6%	13.9%	204	+0.49	3.29	777	58
Nate Karns R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	29	SP	4.46	27.1%	6.4%	5.2%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	299	58
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	58
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	57
Stan Spencer R 2000 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	19.2%	8.7%	3.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	119	57
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	57
Jeremy Hefner R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP	4.64	16.8%	9.1%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	322	57
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	57
James Kaprielian R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP-	4.68	20.4%	10.7%	3.5%	.310	6.78	14.2%	1.6%	49	+2.10	2.80	446	57
Andrew Triggs R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP	4.68	23.6%	9.9%	4.2%	.263	—	—	—	—	—	1.66	242	56
Victor Santos R 2006 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	15.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.347	5.78	16.9%	7.4%	63	+1.36	4.09	602	56
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	56
Philip Humber R 2012 · 5.41 FIP	29	SP-	5.41	18.4%	9.3%	4.9%	.289	4.82	13.9%	6.6%	55	-0.59	2.97	362	56
Asher Wojciechowski R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	29	SP-	4.60	22.4%	7.8%	4.4%	.267	5.05	22.0%	13.3%	234	+0.45	3.15	678	55

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	79	24.6%	11.0%	1.38	4.50
Calvin Schiraldi ('84-'91, 2 WAR*)	2.8	92	25.3%*	11.1%*	1.35*	4.71*
Bobby Castillo ('77-'85, 5 WAR*)	3.4	86	22.3%*	11.3%*	1.23*	4.27*
Rich DeLucia ('90-'99, 1 WAR*)	3.1	78	23.2%*	10.5%*	1.55*	4.65*
Tony Cingrani ('18)	1.7	56	25.8%	11.3%	1.26	4.01
Michael Kopech ('25)	2.1	103	25.8%	12.5%	1.45	4.14
Daniel Norris ('23)	2.9	73	21.5%	8.9%	1.39	4.73