Triston McKenzie
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
Age 28
RHP
6'5" / 165 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION16 act + 71 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147138vR 129
ERA5.31
FIP5.73
K%20.6%
BB%14.1%
K-BB%6.5%
ROS IP71
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
CU (13%)
SL-1.4 (7%)
FB-1.8 (80%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 17 | ROK | AZL Indians | 4 | 3 | 12 | 43 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 75% | 3.0 | 39.5% | 7.0% | 32.6% | 0.0% | 0.75 | 0.65 | — |
| 2015 | 17 | ROK | AZL Indians | 4 | 3 | 12 | 43 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 75% | 3.0 | 39.5% | 7.0% | 32.6% | 0.0% | 0.75 | 1.02 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | A | Lake County Captains | 6 | 6 | 34 | 133 | 49 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 5.7 | 27.3% | 5.3% | 21.9% | 1.3% | 3.18 | 2.17 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | A | Lake County Captains | 6 | 6 | 34 | 133 | 49 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 5.7 | 36.8% | 4.5% | 32.3% | 1.5% | 3.18 | 1.51 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | 25 | 25 | 143 | 568 | 186 | 43 | 14 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.2% | 8.7% | 16.5% | 3.8% | 3.46 | 4.18 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | 25 | 25 | 143 | 568 | 186 | 43 | 14 | 100% | 5.7 | 32.7% | 7.6% | 25.2% | 2.5% | 3.46 | 2.67 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 16 | 16 | 91 | 362 | 87 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.5% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 3.9% | 2.68 | 4.68 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 16 | 16 | 91 | 362 | 87 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.0% | 7.7% | 16.3% | 2.2% | 2.68 | 3.25 | — |
| 2020 | 22 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 8 | 6 | 33 | 127 | 42 | 9 | 6 | 75% | 4.2 | 33.1% | 7.1% | 26.0% | 4.7% | 3.24 | 3.81 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 22 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 8 | 6 | 33 | 127 | 42 | 9 | 6 | 75% | 4.2 | 33.1% | 7.1% | 26.0% | 4.7% | 3.24 | 3.73 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 29 | 141 | 586 | 159 | 70 | 26 | 97% | 4.7 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 14.6% | 4.5% | 4.65 | 4.83 | +0.9 |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 29 | 141 | 586 | 159 | 70 | 26 | 97% | 4.7 | 27.1% | 11.9% | 15.2% | 4.4% | 4.65 | 4.73 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 31 | 30 | 191 | 741 | 190 | 44 | 25 | 97% | 6.2 | 25.6% | 5.9% | 19.7% | 3.4% | 2.96 | 3.55 | +4.1 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 31 | 30 | 191 | 741 | 190 | 44 | 25 | 97% | 6.2 | 25.6% | 5.9% | 19.7% | 3.4% | 2.96 | 3.50 | +4.2 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 9 | 9 | 33 | 140 | 35 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 3.7 | 22.6% | 14.1% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 4.91 | 5.59 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 9 | 9 | 33 | 140 | 35 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 3.7 | 25.0% | 13.6% | 11.4% | 4.3% | 4.91 | 5.07 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 26 | 129 | 578 | 130 | 81 | 29 | 90% | 4.4 | 21.3% | 14.3% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.16 | 5.86 | -0.7 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 26 | 129 | 578 | 130 | 81 | 29 | 90% | 4.4 | 22.5% | 14.0% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 5.16 | 5.89 | -0.7 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 5 | 27 | 138 | 35 | 38 | 3 | 25% | 1.4 | 20.9% | 26.9% | -6.0% | 2.4% | 8.00 | 6.07 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 5 | 27 | 138 | 35 | 38 | 3 | 25% | 1.4 | 25.4% | 27.5% | -2.2% | 2.2% | 8.00 | 6.17 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 14 | 3 | 16 | 110 | 22 | 40 | 4 | 21% | 1.2 | 17.6% | 38.2% | -20.6% | 4.0% | 15.98 | 8.65 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SD | 68 | 0 | 71 | 300 | 62 | 42 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 14.1% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 5.31 | 5.73 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SD | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 14.1% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 5.31 | 5.73 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | SD | — | — | 87 | 410 | 84 | 82 | 16 | — | — | 20.4% | 20.1% | 0.4% | 3.9% | 7.31 | 6.28 | -1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | SD | — | — | 7 | 30 | 6 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 20.6% | 14.1% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 5.31 | 5.35 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 68 | 286 | 57 | 41 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.0% | 14.3% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.66 | 5.89 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 64 | 269 | 52 | 39 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.3% | 14.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.92 | 6.10 | -1.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 57 | 41 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.0% | 14.3% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.66 | 5.89 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 52 | 40 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.3% | 14.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.92 | 6.10 | -1.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 117 | 102 | 581 | 2391 | 577 | 264 | 98 | 87% | 5.0 | 24.1% | 11.0% | 13.1% | 4.1% | 4.48 | 4.70 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 35 | 200 | 824 | 199 | 91 | 34 | 87% | 5.0 | 24.1% | 11.0% | 13.1% | 4.1% | 4.48 | 4.70 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 192 | 158 | 851 | 3526 | 858 | 396 | 138 | 82% | 4.4 | 24.3% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 3.9% | 4.10 | 4.62 | +7.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 37 | 200 | 829 | 202 | 93 | 33 | 82% | 4.4 | 24.3% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 3.9% | 4.10 | 4.62 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Triston McKenzie (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.73 | 20.6% | 14.1% | 4.0% | — | 5.99 | 19.7% | 5.2% | 132 | +0.26 | — | — | — |
| Brian Edgington R 2024 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 63 |
| Connor Schultz R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.85 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 171 | 63 |
| Darien Smith R 2024 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.67 | 19.0% | 12.9% | 2.8% | .212 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 102 | 63 |
| Vanny Valenzuela R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.66 | 16.3% | 11.3% | 2.8% | .380 | 7.26 | 10.9% | 1.2% | 25 | +2.60 | 3.26 | 118 | 62 |
| Brady Rodgers R 2026 · 5.58 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.58 | 14.7% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.98 | 354 | 59 |
| David Griffin R 2025 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 59 |
| Trent Sellers R 2024 · 5.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.09 | 23.5% | 14.2% | 4.0% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 236 | 58 |
| Kohei Arihara R 2026 · 6.20 FIP | 28 | SP | 6.20 | 13.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | .262 | 4.67 | 16.4% | 9.2% | 94 | -1.53 | 4.67 | 135 | 58 |
| Matt Cain R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 57 |
| Chris Ellis R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.31 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 4.4% | .274 | 6.16 | 12.5% | -2.7% | 64 | +0.85 | 3.85 | 780 | 57 |
| Colin Rea R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.72 | 17.6% | 11.3% | 4.9% | .344 | 4.10 | 17.7% | 9.8% | 198 | -1.62 | 2.67 | 1,073 | 57 |
| Jack Weisenburger R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.11 | 18.6% | 13.5% | 3.4% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 128 | 57 |
| Keyvius Sampson R 2024 · 5.21 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.21 | 19.6% | 16.4% | 3.1% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 316 | 57 |
| Blair Henley R 2025 · 5.90 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.90 | 17.6% | 14.5% | 4.5% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 187 | 56 |
| Aldo Montes R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.65 | 12.4% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.41 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 75 | -0.24 | 4.41 | 210 | 56 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.85 | 14.9% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .341 | 5.33 | 13.2% | 0.6% | 66 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 254 | 56 |
| Jason García R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.64 | 17.7% | 13.5% | 2.4% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 356 | 56 |
| Luis Niebla R 2024 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 11.6% | 13.2% | 2.1% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 156 | 56 |
| Kris Medlen R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 55 |
| Alex Blackford R 2024 · 5.71 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.71 | 14.9% | 12.5% | 4.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 229 | 55 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 20.0% | 14.4% | 1.61 | 5.62 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |