Triston McKenzie

Triston McKenzie P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 165 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION16 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.29

FIP5.70

K%20.3%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%6.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL4045

CMD4550

K†5050

CU (13%)

SL-1.4 (7%)

FB-1.8 (80%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	17	ROK MLE	AZL Indians	4	3	12	43	17	3	0	75%	3.0	39.5%	7.0%	32.6%	0.0%	0.75	0.65	—
2015	17	ROK RAW	AZL Indians	4	3	12	43	17	3	0	75%	3.0	39.5%	7.0%	32.6%	0.0%	0.75	1.02	—
2016	18	A MLE	Lake County Captains	6	6	34	133	49	6	2	100%	5.7	27.3%	5.3%	21.9%	1.5%	3.18	2.31	—
2016	18	A RAW	Lake County Captains	6	6	34	133	49	6	2	100%	5.7	36.8%	4.5%	32.3%	1.5%	3.18	1.51	—
2017	19	A+ MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	25	25	143	568	186	43	14	100%	5.7	25.2%	8.7%	16.5%	3.4%	3.46	3.95	—
2017	19	A+ RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	25	25	143	568	186	43	14	100%	5.7	32.7%	7.6%	25.2%	2.5%	3.46	2.67	—
2018	20	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	16	16	91	362	87	28	8	100%	5.7	19.5%	8.5%	11.0%	3.2%	2.68	4.27	—
2018	20	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	16	16	91	362	87	28	8	100%	5.7	24.0%	7.7%	16.3%	2.2%	2.68	3.25	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	8	6	33	127	42	9	6	75%	4.2	33.1%	7.1%	26.0%	4.7%	3.24	3.80	+0.4
2020	22	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	8	6	33	127	42	9	6	75%	4.2	33.1%	7.1%	26.0%	4.7%	3.24	3.73	+0.5
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	29	141	586	159	70	26	97%	4.7	26.7%	12.0%	14.6%	4.5%	4.65	4.84	+0.1
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	29	141	586	159	70	26	97%	4.7	27.1%	11.9%	15.2%	4.4%	4.65	4.73	+0.3
2022	24	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	31	30	191	741	190	44	25	97%	6.2	25.6%	5.9%	19.7%	3.4%	2.96	3.54	+3.2
2022	24	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	31	30	191	741	190	44	25	97%	6.2	25.6%	5.9%	19.7%	3.4%	2.96	3.50	+3.3
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	9	33	140	35	19	6	100%	3.7	22.1%	13.6%	8.5%	4.9%	4.91	5.64	-0.3
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	9	33	140	35	19	6	100%	3.7	22.1%	13.6%	8.5%	4.9%	4.91	5.64	-0.3
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	9	9	33	140	35	19	6	100%	3.7	25.0%	13.6%	11.4%	4.3%	4.91	5.07	-0.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	26	129	578	130	81	29	90%	4.4	20.8%	13.4%	7.4%	5.1%	5.16	5.84	-1.3
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	26	129	578	130	81	29	90%	4.4	20.8%	13.4%	7.4%	5.1%	5.16	5.84	-1.3
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	26	129	578	130	81	29	90%	4.4	22.5%	14.0%	8.5%	5.0%	5.16	5.89	-1.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	5	27	138	35	38	3	25%	1.4	20.9%	26.9%	-6.0%	3.1%	8.00	6.45	-0.6
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	5	27	138	35	38	3	25%	1.4	20.9%	26.9%	-6.0%	3.1%	8.00	6.45	-0.6
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	5	27	138	35	38	3	25%	1.4	25.4%	27.5%	-2.2%	2.2%	8.00	6.17	-0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			88	80	442	1806	462	179	73	91%	5.0	25.6%	9.9%	15.7%	4.0%	4.07	4.37	+2.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	14	3	16	110	22	40	4	21%	1.2	16.6%	32.7%	-16.1%	4.0%	15.98	8.04	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	14	3	16	110	22	40	4	21%	1.2	16.6%	32.7%	-16.1%	4.0%	15.98	8.04	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	SD	14	3	16	110	22	40	4	21%	1.2	20.0%	36.4%	-16.4%	3.6%	15.98	8.01	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	SD	6	0	6	27	5	4	1	0%	1.1	20.3%	13.5%	6.7%	4.1%	5.29	5.70	-0.1
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	23	137	27	44	5	—	—	20.1%	31.9%	-11.9%	3.7%	13.00	7.39	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	SD	11	11	68	286	56	39	12	100%	6.2	19.7%	13.7%	5.9%	4.2%	5.64	5.87	-0.7
2028	30	MLB MLE	SD	11	11	64	269	51	38	12	100%	5.8	19.0%	14.0%	4.9%	4.4%	5.90	6.07	-0.8
2027	29	MLB CTX	SD	11	11	68	287	56	39	12	100%	6.2	19.7%	13.7%	5.9%	4.2%	5.64	5.87	-0.7
2028	30	MLB CTX	SD	11	11	64	270	51	38	12	100%	5.8	19.0%	14.0%	4.9%	4.4%	5.90	6.07	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		111	102	574	2364	570	256	97	92%	5.2	24.1%	10.8%	13.3%	4.1%	4.46	4.69	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	36	200	823	199	89	34	92%	5.2	24.1%	10.8%	13.3%	4.1%	4.46	4.69	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		192	158	851	3526	854	384	135	82%	4.4	24.2%	10.9%	13.3%	3.8%	4.10	4.54	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	37	200	829	201	90	32	82%	4.4	24.2%	10.9%	13.3%	3.8%	4.10	4.54	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Triston McKenzie (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.70	20.3%	13.5%	4.1%	—	5.97	19.3%	5.4%	132	+0.27	—	—	—
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.84	19.6%	8.0%	114	-2.22	3.68	136	63
Vanny Valenzuela R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.380	6.25	10.9%	1.2%	25	+1.71	3.26	118	62
Chi Chi González R 2020 · 4.61 FIP	28	SP-	4.61	17.6%	11.0%	2.9%	.306	4.85	13.5%	6.9%	327	+0.24	4.01	800	62
Brady Rodgers R 2019 · 5.44 FIP	28	SP-	5.44	14.7%	9.0%	4.4%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	1.98	354	60
Kohei Arihara R 2021 · 6.04 FIP	28	SP	6.04	13.5%	7.3%	5.8%	.262	4.58	16.4%	9.2%	94	-1.46	4.58	135	60
Colin Rea R 2018 · 5.61 FIP	28	SP	5.61	17.6%	11.3%	4.7%	.344	4.14	17.7%	9.8%	198	-1.47	2.57	1,112	59
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	59
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	58
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	58
Chris Ellis R 2021 · 5.41 FIP	28	SP	5.41	19.6%	11.5%	4.6%	.274	6.19	11.8%	-1.3%	64	+0.78	3.84	780	58
Keyvius Sampson R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	26	SP-	5.08	19.6%	16.4%	2.8%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	57
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	57
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	57
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	57
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	57
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	19.3%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.96	3.02	341	56
Jason García R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	28	SP-	4.76	17.7%	13.5%	2.6%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	356	56
Bryan Mitchell R 2019 · 6.44 FIP	28	SP	6.44	13.7%	13.1%	5.2%	.360	4.61	18.1%	6.7%	97	-1.83	2.72	481	56
Riley Thompson R 2023 · 5.81 FIP	27	SP-	5.81	17.8%	12.9%	4.7%	.284	4.53	17.0%	8.1%	107	-1.28	4.53	340	56
Nick Tropeano R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	28	SP-	4.96	20.3%	9.2%	4.4%	.336	3.93	22.7%	10.0%	83	-1.03	2.34	446	56

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	19.7%	13.8%	1.63	5.60
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14