Luke Shilling
Luke Shilling
P
Birmingham Barons
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 230 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION7 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.2%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%13.4%
IP8
K†5555
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 16 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 27 | 8 | 2 | 27.4% | 12.1% | 3.6% | 2.95 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 15 | 1 | 13 | 70 | 20 | 16 | 3 | 28.6% | 22.9% | 4.3% | 8.78 | 5.93 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 17 | 1 | 15 | 78 | 16 | 17 | 4 | 17.1% | 26.3% | 6.6% | 9.60 | 8.61 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 8 | — | 8 | 33 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 48 | 2 | 47 | 224 | 54 | 46 | 11 | 24.2% | 20.4% | 4.9% | 6.75 | 6.31 | -1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 206 | 9 | 200 | 960 | 231 | 197 | 47 | 24.2% | 20.4% | 4.9% | 6.75 | 6.31 | -2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luke Shilling (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 3.1% | — | 4.56 | 23.0% | 13.0% | 20 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 85 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 84 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 84 |
| David Hernandez R 2028 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 83 |
| José Cisnero R 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.40 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .367 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.38 | 2.28 | 279 | 81 |
| Tanner Kohlhepp R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.85 | 24.1% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 138 | 80 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.34 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.6% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 166 | 80 |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.34 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.49 | 2.93 | 201 | 79 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.55 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | -0.03 | 3.15 | 272 | 78 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.35 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 4.1% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 158 | 78 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 78 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 78 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2024 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 25.2% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 111 | 78 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.72 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 125 | 78 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 355 | 77 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.16 | 25.1% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.00 | 18.0% | 13.9% | 29 | -1.16 | 3.00 | 313 | 77 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.81 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.2% | .373 | 3.58 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.23 | 3.37 | 170 | 77 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 76 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.46 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .327 | 4.77 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.31 | 2.32 | 676 | 76 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.72 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 4.0% | .311 | 5.88 | 16.9% | 4.6% | 74 | +1.16 | 3.33 | 258 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.