Andrés Muñoz — OGILVIE

Andrés Muñoz P Seattle Mariners

+1.4 WAR

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 222 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.3 · 2026

ERA2.80

FIP3.18

xFIP2.70

SIERA2.66

K%30.8%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%21.1%

IP60

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.3peak

2026

K†8080

FB Velo

p9098.4

Whiff%

p9036.5%

p9032.7%

xwOBA vs

p900.263

SL+0.7 (56%)

SI (12%)

CH (3%)

FB-2.7 (41%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2016	17	ROK	AZL Padres	16	1	20	93	26	16	1	19.0%	21.5%	1.5%	5.49	5.04	-0.0
2017	18	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	3	0	2	11	3	2	0	—	—	—	3.86	—	—
2018	19	AA	San Antonio Missions	20	0	19	74	19	11	0	20.8%	16.4%	0.0%	0.95	3.41	+0.3
2019	20	MLB	San Diego Padres	57	0	59	252	88	29	6	31.2%	12.1%	2.5%	3.37	3.37	+1.1
2021	22	MLB	Seattle Mariners	5	2	4	17	8	3	0	—	—	—	4.15	—	—
2022	23	MLB	Seattle Mariners	64	0	65	248	96	12	5	38.7%	4.8%	2.0%	2.49	1.54	+2.5
2023	24	MLB	Seattle Mariners	55	0	52	220	70	20	2	31.8%	9.0%	1.0%	2.77	2.08	+1.7
2024	25	MLB	Seattle Mariners	60	0	59	232	77	23	6	33.2%	9.9%	2.7%	2.12	3.01	+1.3
2025	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	64	0	62	254	83	25	2	32.7%	9.8%	0.8%	1.73	2.01	+2.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	Seattle Mariners	7	0	7	33	10	5	1	—	—	—	9.45	—	—
ROS	27	MLB	SEA	53	—	53	226	77	22	5	34.1%	9.7%	2.1%	2.66	2.97	+1.2
2026 Total	27	MLB	SEA	—	—	60	259	87	27	6	33.6%	10.4%	2.2%	3.41	2.64	+1.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	28	MLB	SEA	59	—	59	250	84	25	5	33.5%	10.2%	2.2%	3.00	3.14	+1.2
2028	29	MLB	SEA	58	—	58	244	81	25	5	33.1%	10.3%	2.2%	3.13	3.21	+1.1
2029	30	MLB	SEA	56	—	56	237	77	25	5	32.5%	10.4%	2.3%	3.23	3.30	+1.1
2030	31	MLB	SEA	54	—	54	229	73	24	5	31.9%	10.5%	2.4%	3.34	3.41	+0.9
2031	32	MLB	SEA	52	—	52	220	69	23	5	31.3%	10.6%	2.4%	3.45	3.52	+0.8
2032	33	MLB	SEA	50	—	50	210	64	23	5	30.6%	10.8%	2.5%	3.57	3.65	+0.7
2033	34	MLB	SEA	47	—	47	199	60	22	5	29.9%	11.0%	2.6%	3.70	3.79	+0.6
2034	35	MLB	SEA	44	—	44	188	55	21	5	29.2%	11.2%	2.7%	3.84	3.94	+0.5
2035	36	MLB	SEA	42	—	42	176	50	20	5	28.4%	11.5%	2.9%	4.00	4.10	+0.4
2036	37	MLB	SEA	39	—	39	163	45	19	5	27.6%	11.8%	3.0%	4.17	4.28	+0.3
2037	38	MLB	SEA	36	—	36	150	40	18	5	26.8%	12.1%	3.1%	4.35	4.47	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			351	3	349	1434	459	152	24	32.0%	10.6%	1.7%	2.73	2.66	+10.5
/ 200 IP	—			201	2	200	821	263	87	14	32.0%	10.6%	1.7%	2.73	2.66	+6.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrés Muñoz (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.97	34.1%	9.7%	2.1%	—	3.22	33.0%	22.8%	173	+0.25	—	—	—
Ryne Stanek R 2026 · 3.66 FIP	27	SW	3.66	30.8%	9.9%	3.5%	.250	3.84	27.9%	16.5%	145	+0.18	2.94	708	72
Daniel Hudson R 2027 · 3.48 FIP	28	SW	3.48	24.5%	7.9%	2.6%	.302	3.74	22.8%	13.6%	168	+0.26	1.69	468	72
Tyler Kinley R 2026 · 3.38 FIP	27	SW	3.38	27.2%	11.8%	2.0%	.331	4.08	23.5%	11.8%	159	+0.70	1.58	544	70
Justin Grimm R 2026 · 3.19 FIP	27	SW	3.19	28.9%	9.3%	2.5%	.313	4.23	25.2%	13.4%	170	+1.04	2.87	335	69
Jon Edwards R 2026 · 3.39 FIP	27	SW	3.39	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.39	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.39	132	69
Jordan Jankowski R 2026 · 2.94 FIP	27	SW	2.94	30.3%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	4.23	23.4%	8.8%	62	+1.29	2.57	196	69
Jaden Hill R 2024 · 2.56 FIP	25	SU	2.56	28.4%	7.7%	1.6%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	129	69
Juan Minaya R 2026 · 3.42 FIP	27	SW	3.42	27.0%	11.4%	2.1%	.282	3.85	24.0%	13.2%	131	+0.43	3.19	446	69
Mychal Givens R 2026 · 3.31 FIP	27	SW	3.31	27.9%	7.6%	2.9%	.244	3.55	28.4%	19.3%	162	+0.24	1.77	526	68
Mason Miller R 2025 · 1.79 FIP	26	SW	1.79	44.4%	11.1%	1.9%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	1.79	160	68
Spencer Patton R 2026 · 3.49 FIP	27	SW	3.49	26.8%	9.6%	2.6%	.295	2.83	30.3%	18.1%	57	-0.66	2.83	239	68
Arquimedes Caminero R 2027 · 3.38 FIP	28	SW	3.38	23.0%	8.5%	2.1%	.265	4.49	17.9%	6.5%	61	+1.11	3.38	173	68
Nick Mears R 2026 · 3.06 FIP	27	SW	3.06	29.3%	9.0%	2.4%	.358	3.65	20.8%	15.4%	57	+0.59	3.06	254	67
Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 3.68 FIP	28	SW	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.07	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.61	2.31	403	67
Josh Fields R 2028 · 1.85 FIP	29	SW	1.85	32.1%	7.7%	0.9%	.298	3.33	25.2%	19.0%	162	+1.48	1.85	238	67
Ben Heller R 2024 · 2.93 FIP	25	SW	2.93	32.4%	9.4%	2.5%	.243	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	246	67
Zack Kelly R 2026 · 2.91 FIP	27	SW	2.91	27.7%	10.1%	1.6%	.284	4.27	23.8%	12.9%	118	+1.36	2.47	359	67
Craig Kimbrel R 2026 · 2.46 FIP	27	SW	2.46	36.4%	8.8%	2.4%	.272	2.16	42.6%	32.3%	184	-0.30	1.10	556	67
Kaleb Ort R 2026 · 2.89 FIP	27	SU	2.89	30.1%	14.0%	1.0%	.369	3.11	25.5%	15.8%	114	+0.22	1.75	365	66
Blake Wood R 2028 · 2.91 FIP	29	SW	2.91	24.5%	10.5%	1.0%	.325	3.57	24.9%	14.9%	151	+0.66	2.91	210	66

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 7.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$16M	+1.3	$10M	-$5M
Totals		$16M		$10M	-$5M