Andrés Muñoz — OGILVIE

Andrés Muñoz P Seattle Mariners

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 222 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION54 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8173vR 65

ERA2.52

FIP2.47

K%36.3%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%26.5%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7575

CTRL3535

CMD6565

K†8080

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9099.7

Whiff%

p9041.0%

p9037.6%

xwOBA vs

p850.278

SL+0.7 (44%)

SI (8%)

CH (7%)

FB-2.7 (50%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.465 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.5M	+0.1	$0.4M	-$0.1M
2027	Ext	$8M	+1.0	$7M	+$0.2M
2028	Ext	$10M	+0.9	$3M	-$5M
Totals		$18M		$11M	-$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	17	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	16	1	20	93	26	16	1	6%	1.2	19.0%	21.5%	-2.5%	1.5%	5.49	5.04	—
2016	17	ROK RAW	AZL Padres	16	1	20	93	26	16	1	6%	1.2	28.0%	17.2%	10.8%	1.1%	5.49	3.56	—
2017	18	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	3	0	2	11	3	2	0	0%	0.8	27.3%	18.2%	9.1%	0.0%	3.86	3.10	—
2017	18	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	3	0	2	11	3	2	0	0%	0.8	27.3%	18.2%	9.1%	0.0%	3.86	3.10	—
2018	19	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	20	0	19	74	19	11	0	0%	0.9	20.8%	16.4%	4.4%	0.0%	0.95	3.41	—
2018	19	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	20	0	19	74	19	11	0	0%	0.9	25.7%	14.9%	10.8%	0.0%	0.95	2.84	—
2019	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	57	0	59	252	88	29	6	0%	1.0	31.2%	12.1%	19.1%	2.5%	3.37	3.37	+0.8
2019	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	57	0	59	252	88	29	6	0%	1.0	34.9%	11.5%	23.4%	2.4%	3.37	2.91	+1.1
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	5	2	4	17	8	3	0	40%	0.9	47.1%	17.6%	29.4%	0.0%	4.15	1.36	+0.2
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	5	2	4	17	8	3	0	40%	0.9	47.1%	17.6%	29.4%	0.0%	4.15	1.48	+0.2
2022	23	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	64	0	65	248	96	12	5	0%	1.0	38.7%	4.8%	33.9%	2.1%	2.49	1.58	+2.3
2022	23	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	64	0	65	248	96	12	5	0%	1.0	38.7%	4.8%	33.9%	2.0%	2.49	1.70	+2.2
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	52	220	70	20	2	0%	0.9	31.8%	9.0%	22.7%	1.0%	2.77	2.09	+1.5
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	52	220	70	20	2	0%	0.9	31.8%	9.0%	22.7%	1.0%	2.77	2.09	+1.5
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	52	220	70	20	2	0%	0.9	31.8%	9.1%	22.7%	0.9%	2.77	2.06	+1.6
2024	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	60	0	59	232	77	23	6	0%	1.0	33.2%	9.9%	23.3%	2.7%	2.12	3.01	+1.1
2024	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	60	0	59	232	77	23	6	0%	1.0	33.2%	9.9%	23.3%	2.7%	2.12	3.01	+1.1
2024	25	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	60	0	59	232	77	23	6	0%	1.0	33.2%	9.9%	23.3%	2.6%	2.12	2.98	+1.1
2025	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	64	0	62	254	83	25	2	0%	1.0	32.7%	9.8%	22.8%	0.8%	1.73	2.03	+1.9
2025	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	64	0	62	254	83	25	2	0%	1.0	32.7%	9.8%	22.8%	0.8%	1.73	2.03	+1.9
2025	26	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	64	0	62	254	83	25	2	0%	1.0	32.7%	9.8%	22.8%	0.8%	1.73	2.06	+1.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			320	0	314	1272	439	115	24	0%	1.0	34.5%	9.0%	25.5%	1.9%	2.70	2.40	+8.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	57	0	54	226	85	23	7	0%	1.0	37.6%	10.2%	27.4%	3.2%	3.98	2.96	+1.0
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	57	0	54	226	85	23	7	0%	1.0	37.6%	10.2%	27.4%	3.2%	3.98	2.96	+1.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	MLB RAW	SEA	57	0	54	226	85	23	7	0%	1.0	37.6%	10.2%	27.4%	3.1%	3.98	2.91	+1.1
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	SEA	57	0	54	226	85	23	7	0%	1.0	37.6%	10.2%	27.4%	3.1%	3.98	2.91	+1.1
ROS	27	MLB MLE	SEA	5	0	5	21	8	2	0	0%	1.0	36.3%	9.8%	26.5%	2.2%	2.52	2.47	+0.1
ROS	27	MLB CTX	SEA	5	0	5	21	8	2	0	0%	1.0	36.3%	9.8%	26.5%	2.1%	2.49	2.44	+0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	59	247	93	25	7	—	—	37.5%	10.1%	27.4%	3.0%	3.85	2.92	+1.2
FULL	27	MLB A+C	SEA	—	—	59	251	93	25	7	—	—	37.0%	10.0%	27.0%	3.0%	3.85	2.88	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SEA	56	0	58	246	88	25	6	0%	1.0	35.9%	10.0%	26.0%	2.5%	3.06	3.07	+1.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	SEA	53	0	56	235	83	24	6	0%	1.1	35.4%	10.2%	25.2%	2.6%	3.16	3.23	+0.9
2027	28	MLB CTX	SEA	52	0	55	232	83	23	6	0%	1.1	35.9%	10.0%	26.0%	2.4%	3.03	3.04	+1.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	SEA	50	0	53	224	79	23	6	0%	1.1	35.4%	10.2%	25.2%	2.6%	3.12	3.19	+0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		428	0	427	1751	610	163	36	0%	1.0	34.8%	9.3%	25.5%	2.0%	2.79	2.46	+10.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		200	0	200	820	286	76	17	0%	1.0	34.8%	9.3%	25.5%	2.0%	2.79	2.46	+5.0
Career	—	MLE		401	3	397	1627	534	170	30	1%	1.0	32.8%	10.5%	22.3%	1.9%	2.79	2.68	+10.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		202	2	200	820	269	86	15	1%	1.0	32.8%	10.5%	22.3%	1.9%	2.79	2.68	+4.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrés Muñoz (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.88	34.9%	9.6%	2.1%	—	3.15	35.7%	25.6%	114	+0.27	—	—	—
Trevor Rosenthal R 2017 · 2.05 FIP	27	SU	2.05	37.6%	9.9%	1.6%	.330	3.21	33.2%	15.9%	39	+1.16	1.86	196	74
Matt Brash R 2023 · 1.91 FIP	25	SU	1.91	34.7%	9.4%	1.0%	.367	2.61	27.6%	19.7%	64	+0.70	1.91	309	73
Dellin Betances R 2015 · 2.15 FIP	27	SU	2.15	39.5%	11.4%	1.7%	.248	2.02	41.0%	29.6%	199	-0.13	1.59	308	71
Cody Allen R 2016 · 3.18 FIP	27	SU	3.18	33.0%	9.5%	3.0%	.229	4.17	29.4%	19.2%	157	+0.99	1.58	295	69
Craig Kimbrel R 2015 · 2.48 FIP	27	SU	2.48	36.4%	8.8%	2.5%	.272	2.13	42.6%	32.3%	184	-0.35	0.94	601	68
Trevor May R 2016 · 3.52 FIP	26	SU	3.52	32.1%	8.6%	3.7%	.308	3.57	28.1%	18.5%	117	+0.05	3.05	432	67
Luke Jackson R 2019 · 2.89 FIP	27	SU	2.89	33.7%	7.0%	3.2%	.373	3.55	23.4%	13.3%	90	+0.66	2.67	580	67
Josh Fields R 2015 · 1.90 FIP	29	SU	1.90	32.1%	7.7%	1.0%	.298	3.23	25.2%	19.0%	162	+1.33	1.90	238	67
Mychal Givens R 2017 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	27.9%	7.6%	2.9%	.244	3.48	28.4%	19.3%	162	+0.20	1.77	526	67
Justin Grimm R 2016 · 3.11 FIP	27	SU	3.11	28.9%	9.3%	2.3%	.313	4.33	25.2%	13.4%	170	+1.22	3.00	335	66
Ben Heller R 2017 · 2.86 FIP	25	SU	2.86	32.4%	9.4%	2.4%	.243	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	246	66
Jake Cousins R 2021 · 3.21 FIP	27	SU	3.21	35.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.217	3.60	30.9%	19.0%	101	+0.39	1.11	160	65
Jon Edwards R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.40	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.40	132	65
Michael King R 2022 · 1.97 FIP	27	SU	1.97	33.2%	7.0%	1.4%	.276	3.20	27.6%	19.6%	352	+1.23	1.97	1,014	64
Raisel Iglesias R 2017 · 2.47 FIP	27	SU	2.47	30.1%	8.5%	1.5%	.284	3.30	30.3%	23.6%	162	+0.83	1.34	820	64
AJ Ramos R 2015 · 2.89 FIP	28	SU	2.89	31.4%	9.4%	2.3%	.247	3.43	26.8%	14.0%	142	+0.54	2.55	266	64
Jordan Jankowski R 2016 · 2.95 FIP	27	SU	2.95	30.3%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	4.23	23.4%	8.8%	62	+1.28	2.57	196	64
Gerardo Reyes R 2019 · 4.03 FIP	26	SU	4.03	29.8%	10.1%	4.0%	.310	4.50	24.7%	9.0%	46	+0.47	3.15	371	64
Pete Fairbanks R 2021 · 2.54 FIP	27	SU	2.54	29.6%	10.6%	1.1%	.342	2.33	33.2%	25.0%	115	-0.21	0.50	463	64
Pedro Báez R 2015 · 2.29 FIP	27	SU	2.29	28.8%	4.8%	1.8%	.321	3.57	25.8%	17.2%	194	+1.28	2.29	332	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	35.4%	9.9%	0.93	3.05
Corey Knebel ('22)	1.4	47	32.3%	11.2%	0.95	3.04
Keone Kela ('19)	1.1	43	30.1%	9.4%	0.92	3.23
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12
José Leclerc ('24)	1.7	57	31.6%	12.8%	0.76	3.33
Carl Edwards Jr. ('23)	1.2	50	28.7%	12.4%	0.76	3.05
Felipe Vázquez ('19)	1.7	66	29.8%	7.5%	0.60	2.61