Andrés Muñoz — OGILVIE

Andrés Muñoz P Seattle Mariners

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 222 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 26 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8172vR 62

ERA2.65

FIP2.62

K%34.8%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%25.1%

ROS IP26

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7575

CTRL3535

CMD6565

K†8080

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9099.3

Whiff%

p9040.3%

p9034.5%

xwOBA vs

p620.300

SL+0.7 (50%)

SI (10%)

CH (4%)

FB-2.7 (46%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.465 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.5	$2M	-$0.5M
2027	Ext	$8M	+1.0	$7M	+$0.2M
2028	Ext	$10M	+0.8	$3M	-$5M
Totals		$20M		$12M	-$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2016	17	ROK	AZL Padres	16	1	20	93	26	16	1	6%	1.2	19.0%	21.5%	-2.5%	1.5%	5.49	5.04	—
2016	17	ROK	AZL Padres	16	1	20	93	26	16	1	6%	1.2	28.0%	17.2%	10.8%	1.1%	5.49	3.56	—
2017	18	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	3	0	2	11	3	2	0	0%	0.8	27.3%	18.2%	9.1%	0.0%	3.86	3.10	—
2017	18	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	3	0	2	11	3	2	0	0%	0.8	27.3%	18.2%	9.1%	0.0%	3.86	3.10	—
2018	19	AA	San Antonio Missions	20	0	19	74	19	11	0	0%	0.9	20.8%	16.4%	4.4%	0.0%	0.95	3.41	—
2018	19	AA	San Antonio Missions	20	0	19	74	19	11	0	0%	0.9	25.7%	14.9%	10.8%	0.0%	0.95	2.84	—
2019	20	MIX	3 levels	57	0	59	252	88	29	6	0%	1.0	31.2%	12.1%	19.1%	2.6%	3.37	3.42	+0.8
2019	20	MIX	3 levels	57	0	59	252	88	29	6	0%	1.0	34.9%	11.5%	23.4%	2.4%	3.37	2.91	+1.1
2021	22	MIX	3 levels	5	2	4	17	8	3	0	40%	0.9	47.1%	17.6%	29.4%	0.0%	4.15	1.36	+0.2
2021	22	MIX	3 levels	5	2	4	17	8	3	0	40%	0.9	47.1%	17.6%	29.4%	0.0%	4.15	1.48	+0.2
2022	23	MLB	Seattle Mariners	64	0	65	248	96	12	5	0%	1.0	38.7%	4.8%	33.9%	2.1%	2.49	1.61	+2.3
2022	23	MLB	Seattle Mariners	64	0	65	248	96	12	5	0%	1.0	38.7%	4.8%	33.9%	2.0%	2.49	1.70	+2.2
2023	24	MIX	2 levels	55	0	52	220	70	20	2	0%	0.9	31.8%	9.0%	22.7%	1.0%	2.77	2.11	+1.5
2023	24	MIX	2 levels	55	0	52	220	70	20	2	0%	0.9	31.8%	9.1%	22.7%	0.9%	2.77	2.06	+1.5
2024	25	MLB	Seattle Mariners	60	0	59	232	77	23	6	0%	1.0	33.2%	9.9%	23.3%	2.7%	2.12	3.05	+1.0
2024	25	MLB	Seattle Mariners	60	0	59	232	77	23	6	0%	1.0	33.2%	9.9%	23.3%	2.6%	2.12	2.98	+1.1
2025	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	64	0	62	254	83	25	2	0%	1.0	32.7%	9.8%	22.8%	0.8%	1.73	2.04	+1.9
2025	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	64	0	62	254	83	25	2	0%	1.0	32.7%	9.8%	22.8%	0.8%	1.73	2.06	+1.9
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	Seattle Mariners	37	0	34	148	51	15	4	0%	0.9	34.5%	10.1%	24.3%	2.7%	4.19	2.96	+0.6
ROS	27	MLB	SEA	25	0	26	109	38	11	2	0%	1.0	34.8%	9.7%	25.1%	2.2%	2.65	2.62	+0.6
ROS	27	MLB	SEA	25	0	26	110	38	11	2	0%	1.0	34.8%	9.7%	25.1%	2.2%	2.62	2.59	+0.6
2026 TOT	27	MLB	SEA	—	—	60	257	89	26	6	—	—	34.6%	10.0%	24.7%	2.5%	3.53	2.81	+1.2
2026 FULL	27	MLB	SEA	—	—	60	254	89	26	6	—	—	35.0%	10.1%	24.9%	2.5%	3.52	2.80	+1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	SEA	56	0	58	246	86	24	6	0%	1.0	34.8%	9.9%	24.9%	2.3%	3.06	3.08	+1.0
2028	29	MLB	SEA	53	0	56	235	80	24	6	0%	1.1	34.2%	10.1%	24.1%	2.5%	3.17	3.24	+0.9
2029	30	MLB	SEA	50	0	52	221	74	23	6	0%	1.0	33.5%	10.4%	23.1%	2.7%	3.33	3.44	+0.7
2030	31	MLB	SEA	47	0	49	206	68	22	6	0%	1.0	32.7%	10.7%	22.0%	2.9%	3.54	3.67	+0.5
2031	32	MLB	SEA	43	0	45	191	61	21	6	0%	1.1	31.9%	11.1%	20.8%	3.2%	3.77	3.93	+0.3
2027	28	MLB	SEA	52	0	55	232	81	23	5	0%	1.1	34.8%	9.9%	24.9%	2.3%	3.03	3.05	+1.0
2028	29	MLB	SEA	50	0	53	224	76	23	5	0%	1.1	34.2%	10.1%	24.1%	2.4%	3.14	3.21	+0.8
2029	30	MLB	SEA	48	0	50	211	71	22	6	0%	1.0	33.5%	10.4%	23.1%	2.6%	3.29	3.40	+0.7
2030	31	MLB	SEA	44	0	46	194	64	21	6	0%	1.0	32.7%	10.7%	22.0%	2.8%	3.50	3.63	+0.5
2031	32	MLB	SEA	41	0	43	182	58	20	6	0%	1.0	31.9%	11.1%	20.8%	3.1%	3.73	3.89	+0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			560	0	567	2348	793	226	51	0%	1.0	33.8%	9.6%	24.1%	2.2%	2.93	2.66	+18.2
/ 200 IP	—			198	0	200	828	280	80	18	0%	1.0	33.8%	9.6%	24.1%	2.2%	2.93	2.66	+6.4
Career	—			381	3	377	1549	500	162	28	1%	1.0	32.3%	10.5%	21.8%	1.8%	2.75	2.69	+12.0
/ 200 IP	—			202	2	200	822	265	86	15	1%	1.0	32.3%	10.5%	21.8%	1.8%	2.75	2.69	+6.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrés Muñoz (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.88	35.1%	9.6%	2.1%	—	3.25	34.1%	24.0%	166	+0.37	—	—	—
Dellin Betances R 2026 · 2.14 FIP	27	SU	2.14	39.5%	11.4%	1.7%	.248	2.01	41.0%	29.6%	199	-0.13	1.58	308	71
Trevor Rosenthal R 2026 · 2.00 FIP	27	SU	2.00	37.6%	9.9%	1.5%	.330	3.28	33.2%	15.9%	39	+1.28	1.98	196	69
Craig Kimbrel R 2026 · 2.62 FIP	27	SU	2.62	36.4%	8.8%	2.7%	.272	2.09	42.6%	32.3%	184	-0.53	0.89	599	68
Josh Fields R 2028 · 1.86 FIP	29	SU	1.86	32.1%	7.7%	0.9%	.298	3.39	25.2%	19.0%	162	+1.53	1.86	238	68
Ben Heller R 2024 · 2.65 FIP	25	SU	2.65	32.4%	9.4%	2.0%	.243	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	246	67
Cody Allen R 2026 · 3.19 FIP	27	SU	3.19	33.0%	9.5%	3.0%	.229	4.21	29.4%	19.2%	157	+1.02	1.58	295	66
Jake Cousins R 2026 · 3.32 FIP	27	SU	3.32	35.2%	14.4%	2.5%	.217	3.73	31.3%	18.9%	101	+0.41	1.11	160	66
Jon Edwards R 2026 · 3.54 FIP	27	SU	3.54	31.7%	13.1%	2.7%	.264	2.30	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.24	2.30	132	66
Jordan Jankowski R 2026 · 2.91 FIP	27	SU	2.91	30.3%	9.8%	2.0%	.296	4.26	23.4%	8.8%	62	+1.35	2.57	196	65
AJ Ramos R 2027 · 2.89 FIP	28	SU	2.89	31.4%	9.4%	2.3%	.247	3.43	26.8%	14.0%	142	+0.54	2.55	266	65
Matt Brash R 2026 · 2.82 FIP	27	SU	2.82	29.1%	8.0%	2.1%	.306	2.11	23.4%	15.6%	17	-0.71	1.92	309	65
Justin Grimm R 2026 · 3.03 FIP	27	SU	3.03	28.9%	9.3%	2.2%	.313	4.33	25.2%	13.4%	170	+1.30	2.93	335	65
Pedro Báez R 2026 · 2.39 FIP	27	SU	2.39	28.8%	4.8%	2.0%	.321	3.73	25.8%	17.2%	194	+1.34	2.39	332	64
Mychal Givens R 2026 · 3.33 FIP	27	SU	3.33	27.9%	7.6%	2.9%	.244	3.47	28.4%	19.3%	162	+0.14	1.75	526	64
Trevor May R 2025 · 3.51 FIP	26	SU	3.51	32.1%	8.6%	3.7%	.308	3.60	28.1%	18.5%	117	+0.09	3.04	432	63
Luke Jackson R 2026 · 2.89 FIP	27	SU	2.89	33.7%	7.0%	3.2%	.373	3.55	23.4%	13.3%	90	+0.66	2.67	580	63
Nick Mears R 2026 · 3.33 FIP	27	SU	3.33	29.3%	9.0%	2.9%	.358	3.99	20.1%	13.0%	76	+0.66	3.33	273	63
Pete Fairbanks R 2026 · 2.55 FIP	27	SU	2.55	29.6%	10.6%	1.1%	.342	2.35	33.2%	25.0%	115	-0.20	0.52	451	63
Kaleb Ort R 2026 · 2.84 FIP	27	SU	2.84	30.1%	14.0%	0.9%	.369	3.04	25.5%	15.8%	114	+0.20	1.75	404	62
Leonel Campos R 2027 · 2.69 FIP	28	SU	2.69	30.1%	11.1%	1.3%	.259	3.66	25.2%	12.2%	118	+0.97	2.69	168	62

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6	53	33.8%	10.2%	1.00	3.27
Corey Knebel ('22)	6	47	32.3%	11.2%	0.95	3.04
David Robertson ('24)	7	66	32.1%	9.6%	0.85	2.91
Cody Allen ('19)	5	59	31.3%	10.2%	1.19	3.51
Keone Kela ('19)	5	43	30.1%	9.4%	0.92	3.23
Andrew Miller ('21)	6	54	35.9%	8.3%	0.97	2.73
Adam Ottavino ('24)	8	59	29.3%	11.4%	0.86	3.18