Daulton Varsho

CF Houston Astros

Age 31 L/R 5'8" / 207 lbs MLB HR -6% Svc 5.744 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANArb-3FA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	28	MLBTOR	513	.214/.294/.407	18	10	95	2.4
2025	29	MLBTOR	271	.238/.289/.548	20	2	123	2.1
2026	30	MLBHOU	526	.221/.282/.355	12	12	76	0.1
2027PROJ	31	MLBHOU	446	.222/.282/.391	15	10	86	1.0
2028PROJ	32	MLBHOU	427	.216/.276/.377	14	5	81	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.5 · Next 2 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service5.744First FA2028

2027Arb-3$6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Chase%90

Whiff%82

Bat Spd68

Barrel%52

Speed47

xwOBA30

Form.218/.267/.381 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .219/.278/.389

CompsJose Rojas (age 31) · Jack Mayfield (age 31) · Justin Leone (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 7386vR 90

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .282 / .391

PA446

HR15

SB10

K%22

BB%7

BABIP254

ISO171

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 35 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT35

Whiff%

827.6%

xAVG

100.211

POWER50

Barrel%

528.5

Avg EV

2487.1

Bat Spd

6873.3

EYE50

Chase%

9018.7%

SPEED60

Sprint

4727.4

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%22%▲21% over 90 PA (60d) · proj 22%

BB%6%▼4% over 90 PA (60d) · proj 7%

ISO.163·.151 over 86 AB (60d) · proj .169

HR/BB4.7%·4.5% over 67 BBE (60d) · proj 4.9%

BABIP.245▼.188 over 64 BIP (60d) · proj .250

SLASH.218/.267/.381▼proj .219/.278/.389

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 876 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

185

691

—

wRC+

119

100

◀◀L

wOBA

344

316

◀L

ISO

157

244

▶▶R

BABIP

313

242

◀◀L

17.8%

28.2%

◀◀L

BB%

8.7%

7.7%

◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2020

Service 5.744 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-3	$6M	+1.1	$9M	+$3M
Totals		$6M		$9M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	22	A+	Visalia Rawhide	—	342	304	87	11	3	11	30	71	7	19	3	286	364	451	814	164	341	21	9	363	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	72	60	17	1	1	0	12	13	0	8	4	283	403	333	736	50	362	18	17	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	Jackson Generals	—	452	396	119	25	4	18	42	63	10	21	5	301	382	520	902	220	317	14	9	393	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	115	101	19	5	2	3	12	33	2	3	1	188	287	366	653	178	246	29	10	295	80	-3	+0	-0	+0	+2	0.0
2021	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	315	284	70	17	2	11	30	67	0	6	0	246	318	437	755	190	286	21	10	334	103	+1	+1	+4	+7	+7	2.1
2021	25	AAA	Reno Aces	—	87	80	25	6	1	9	7	16	0	2	0	312	368	750	1.118	438	291	18	8	472	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	592	531	125	23	3	27	46	145	7	16	6	235	304	443	747	207	269	24	8	326	105	+4	+1	+14	-6	+13	2.6
2023	27	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	581	527	116	23	3	20	45	135	4	16	7	220	286	389	675	169	256	23	8	299	88	-8	+0	+7	-6	+13	0.6
2024	28	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	513	459	98	21	7	18	48	137	4	10	2	214	294	407	701	194	262	27	9	310	95	-3	+1	+12	+2	+11	2.4
2025	29	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	271	248	59	13	2	20	17	77	1	2	0	238	289	548	838	310	250	28	6	354	123	+8	+0	+6	+1	+6	2.1
2025	29	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	33	30	4	0	0	1	1	8	1	0	0	133	188	233	421	100	136	24	3	189	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB	Houston Astros	—	526	484	107	23	3	12	39	107	2	12	0	221	282	355	637	134	260	20	7	286	76	-15	+2	+0	+2	+11	0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2913	2634	594	125	22	111	237	701	20	65	16	226	294	416	710	191	263	24	8	313	98	-8	+7	+43	-0	+63	10.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	22	A+ MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	342	313	74	8	2	10	21	92	7	19	3	236	299	371	670	134	301	27	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	—	452	410	107	21	4	16	28	75	10	21	5	261	324	449	772	188	276	17	6	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	115	101	18	4	2	3	12	33	2	3	1	178	278	347	625	168	246	29	10	286	80	-3	+0	-0	+0	+2	0.0
2021	25	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	315	287	69	15	2	12	27	67	0	6	0	240	306	432	738	192	286	21	9	321	103	+1	+1	+4	+7	+7	2.1
2021	25	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	87	82	21	5	1	7	5	19	0	2	0	256	299	598	896	341	240	22	6	355	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	592	532	123	20	2	29	46	145	7	16	6	231	301	440	741	209	269	24	8	324	105	+4	+1	+14	-6	+13	2.6
2023	27	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	581	528	116	23	3	20	45	135	4	16	7	220	286	388	674	169	256	23	8	298	88	-8	+0	+7	-6	+13	0.6
2024	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	513	460	98	21	7	18	47	137	4	10	2	213	292	407	698	193	262	27	9	308	95	-3	+1	+12	+2	+11	2.4
2025	29	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	271	249	59	13	2	20	16	77	1	2	0	237	286	546	832	309	250	28	6	351	123	+8	+0	+6	+1	+6	2.1
2025	29	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	33	30	4	0	0	1	1	10	1	0	0	133	188	233	421	100	123	30	3	159	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	526	486	106	22	3	12	37	107	2	12	0	218	276	350	626	132	260	20	7	281	76	-15	+2	+0	+2	+11	0.1
2018	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	414	381	91	10	3	12	25	112	7	27	7	239	298	375	673	136	306	27	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	414	364	104	12	4	11	42	84	7	27	7	286	370	431	802	146	344	20	10	360	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	—	452	410	107	21	4	16	28	75	10	21	5	261	324	449	772	188	282	17	6	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA RAW	Jackson Generals	—	452	396	119	25	4	18	42	63	10	21	5	301	382	520	902	220	317	14	9	393	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	115	101	18	4	2	3	12	33	2	3	1	178	278	347	625	168	231	29	10	286	80	-3	+0	-0	+0	+2	0.0
2020	24	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	115	101	19	5	2	3	12	33	2	3	1	188	287	366	653	178	246	29	10	295	80	-3	+0	-0	+0	+2	0.0
2021	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	402	369	88	20	2	18	32	86	0	8	0	238	299	450	749	211	264	21	8	328	108	+4	+2	+4	+7	+9	2.6
2021	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	402	364	95	23	3	20	37	83	0	8	0	261	329	505	835	245	287	21	9	364	108	+4	+2	+4	+7	+9	2.6
2022	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	592	532	123	20	2	29	46	145	7	16	6	231	301	440	741	209	259	24	8	324	105	+4	+1	+14	-6	+13	2.6
2022	26	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	592	531	125	23	3	27	46	145	7	16	6	235	304	443	747	207	269	24	8	326	105	+4	+1	+14	-6	+13	2.6
2023	27	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	581	528	116	23	3	20	45	135	4	16	7	220	286	388	674	169	255	23	8	298	88	-8	+0	+7	-6	+13	0.6
2023	27	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	581	527	116	23	3	20	45	135	4	16	7	220	286	389	675	169	256	23	8	299	88	-8	+0	+7	-6	+13	0.6
2024	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	513	460	98	21	7	18	47	137	4	10	2	213	292	407	698	193	261	27	9	308	95	-3	+1	+12	+2	+11	2.4
2024	28	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	513	459	98	21	7	18	48	137	4	10	2	214	294	407	701	194	262	27	9	310	95	-3	+1	+12	+2	+11	2.4
2025	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	304	279	63	13	2	21	17	87	2	2	0	226	275	513	788	287	237	29	6	330	109	+3	+0	+6	+1	+7	1.7
2025	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	304	278	63	13	2	21	18	85	2	2	0	227	279	514	793	288	236	28	6	336	109	+3	+0	+6	+1	+7	1.7
2026	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	526	486	106	22	3	12	37	107	2	12	0	218	276	350	626	132	255	20	7	281	76	-15	+2	+0	+2	+11	0.1
2026	30	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	526	484	107	23	3	12	39	107	2	12	0	221	282	355	637	134	260	20	7	286	76	-15	+2	+0	+2	+11	0.1
2018	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	414	379	91	10	3	12	25	112	7	27	7	240	298	377	675	137	301	27	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	—	452	411	107	21	4	16	28	75	10	21	5	260	324	448	771	187	276	17	6	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	115	100	18	4	2	3	12	33	2	3	1	180	278	350	628	170	246	29	10	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	402	367	88	20	2	18	32	86	0	8	0	240	299	452	752	213	276	21	8	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	592	534	123	20	2	29	46	145	7	16	6	230	301	438	739	208	269	24	8	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	581	527	116	23	3	20	45	135	4	16	7	220	286	389	675	169	256	23	8	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	513	457	98	21	7	18	47	137	4	10	2	214	292	409	701	195	262	27	9	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	304	282	63	13	2	21	17	87	2	2	0	223	275	507	782	284	236	29	6	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	526	482	106	22	3	12	37	107	2	12	0	220	276	353	629	133	260	20	7	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	513	457	98	21	7	18	47	137	4	10	2	214	292	409	701	195	262	27	9	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	304	282	63	13	2	21	17	87	2	2	0	223	275	507	782	284	236	29	6	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	526	482	106	22	3	12	37	107	2	12	0	220	276	353	629	133	260	20	7	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	31	MLB MLE	HOU	100%	446	409	90	18	3	15	32	99	2	10	2	220	280	389	669	169	250	22	7	295	86	-7	+1	+5	+2	+10	1.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	31	MLB CTX	HOU	100%	446	409	91	19	3	15	32	99	2	10	2	222	282	391	673	169	254	22	7	297	86	-7	+1	+5	+2	+10	1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	HOU	100%	427	392	84	16	3	14	30	96	2	5	2	214	274	376	649	162	245	22	7	287	81	-10	+0	+1	+2	+9	0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	HOU	100%	427	392	85	17	3	14	30	96	2	5	2	216	276	377	653	161	249	22	7	289	81	-10	+0	+1	+2	+9	0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3340	3026	679	142	25	125	267	797	22	70	18	224	292	412	704	187	261	24	8	310	93	-17	+7	+44	+1	+72	11.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	132	28	5	24	52	155	4	14	4	224	291	411	702	187	262	24	8	310	93	-3	+1	+9	+0	+14	2.1
Career	—	MLE		—	4772	4347	984	188	34	178	351	1112	42	130	32	226	291	408	699	182	262	23	7	306	93	-25	+8	+49	+3	+82	11.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	135	26	5	24	48	151	6	18	4	228	293	410	703	182	264	23	7	306	93	-4	+1	+8	+1	+14	2.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jackie Bradley Jr.last yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,192 PA	6.3	4,192	109	69	225	303	381	+6	+78	17.2	18.6
/162	664	17	11	+1.0	+12.3	2.7	pk7: 20
#2Jim Busby'50-'62 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,655 PA	7.0	4,655	48	97	256*	301*	372*	+16	+73	14.1	14.6
/162	664	7	14	+2.3	+10.4	2.0	pk7: 15
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	5.7	3,786	140	80	225	288	410	+14	+59	9.8	9.6
/162	664	25	14	+2.4	+10.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#3Arnold Statz'19-'28 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,843 PA	4.3	2,843	17	77	252*	315*	384*	+9	+29	7.9	8.4
/162	664	4	18	+2.0	+6.7	1.8	pk7: 9
#4Jake Marisnicklast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,213 PA	3.3	2,213	63	81	227	280	381	+5	+54	8.3	8.1
/162	664	19	24	+1.4	+16.2	2.5	pk7: 8
#5Peter Bourjoslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,241 PA	3.4	2,241	42	66	241	298	382	-0	+38	7.4	7.5
/162	664	12	20	-0.1	+11.3	2.2	pk7: 8
#6Harry Craft'37-'42 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,245 PA	3.4	2,245	44	14	241*	284*	411*	+8	+11	4.5	4.5
/162	664	13	4	+2.2	+3.3	1.3	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Daulton Varsho (OGILVIE)	31	35	50	60	50	218/278/385	168	250	15	10	22%	7%	86	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Rojas 2024 · MLB	31	41→48	52→60	49→50	44	216/268/383	167	258	20	9	25%	6%	81	-0.1	209/274/398	189	248	24	11	26%	8%	87	+0.4	195/265/395	200	224	25	11	26%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Jack Mayfield 2022 · MLB	31	43→45	54→55	51→50	43	228/277/403	176	259	22	9	22%	6%	89	+0.5	218/265/355	137	265	14	11	23%	5%	73	-0.6	197/233/311	114	244	10	12	24%	3%	49	-1.3
✕Justin Leone 2008 · AAA	31	41→39	48→50	53→55	49	210/287/354	144	268	16	15	28%	9%	82	-0.0	192/268/328	136	258	15	15	30%	9%	69	-0.9	163/242/288	125	216	15	14	31%	9%	50	-1.3
✕Daniel Palka 2022 · MLB	30	40→43	51→55	50	48	210/281/366	155	262	19	7	28%	9%	82	+0.0	212/269/358	146	273	19	5	29%	7%	76	-0.4	200/255/340	139	255	19	2	29%	7%	62	-1.0
✕Brooks Conrad 2011 · MLB	31	42→43	52→55	53→50	44	221/281/388	168	277	20	12	28%	7%	87	+0.4	228/294/417	189	303	24	9	32%	8%	99	+1.3	202/264/392	189	261	26	2	33%	7%	83	+0.0
✕Chris Herrmann 2018 · MLB	30	40→50	51→50	55→50	50	211/291/368	157	259	19	11	26%	10%	86	+0.3	225/306/375	150	304	17	6	29%	10%	93	+0.8	204/287/339	135	292	14	0	33%	10%	77	-0.1
✕Sam Hilliard 2024 · MLB	30	41→49	52→55	54→55	46	214/289/380	166	294	20	15	33%	9%	88	+0.5	220/286/398	178	307	19	18	33%	8%	91	+0.6	212/277/398	186	292	19	20	33%	8%	87	+0.3
✕Jason Vosler 2024 · MLB	30	38→44	52→55	48→40	44	205/267/365	160	257	21	5	29%	7%	77	-0.3	221/277/382	161	278	19	6	27%	6%	84	+0.2	222/275/386	164	273	20	4	26%	6%	82	-0.0
✕Dewayne Wise 2009 · MLB	31	48→40	52→60	59→55	42	244/292/424	180	286	19	25	22%	5%	99	+1.3	237/278/395	158	286	14	20	22%	4%	87	+0.4	238/273/396	158	291	16	27	24%	4%	84	+0.1
✕Cody Ransom 2008 · MLB	32	37→39	51→55	49→50	42	199/261/355	156	255	20	13	30%	7%	72	-0.7	209/271/376	167	263	20	10	28%	7%	80	-0.1	206/286/402	196	277	25	6	34%	9%	92	+0.4
✕Erik Kratz 2010 · AAA	30	42→44	52→60	51→45	42	221/269/389	168	264	19	8	25%	5%	83	+0.1	223/283/381	158	265	18	5	23%	6%	86	+0.3	220/275/389	169	242	23	1	20%	5%	86	+0.2
✕Ryan Flaherty 2016 · MLB	30	41→47	48→55	50→45	46	213/280/356	142	260	16	3	24%	7%	79	-0.2	226/299/339	113	289	11	6	24%	9%	82	+0.0	224/299/303	79	291	7	7	24%	9%	73	-0.2
✕Armando Alvarez 2024 · AAA	30	45→47	51→55	49→50	45	233/281/393	160	267	19	10	21%	6%	88	+0.4	235/295/377	142	296	16	9	25%	7%	89	+0.5	229/294/358	129	294	15	6	26%	8%	81	-0.0
✕George Lombard 2007 · MLB	31	44→43	50	59→55	43	222/292/377	155	300	17	25	31%	8%	88	+0.5	222/287/356	134	315	14	23	32%	7%	82	-0.0	210/274/313	104	298	12	32	32%	8%	63	-0.4
✕Mikie Mahtook 2021 · MLB	31	40→50	54→55	48→50	44	215/281/392	177	269	23	13	29%	7%	88	+0.5	208/262/364	156	264	20	11	29%	6%	75	-0.5	181/231/331	150	221	21	10	30%	5%	54	-1.4
✕Nick Dini 2023 · AAA	30	41	50	49→50	45	218/279/363	146	253	19	7	23%	6%	81	-0.1	203/291/334	131	265	15	11	28%	9%	79	-0.2	151/269/258	107	199	13	12	30%	11%	54	-0.9
✕Jason Smith 2007 · MLB	30	44→33	48→55	53→50	39	224/268/373	149	293	16	14	29%	5%	78	-0.3	201/237/345	144	284	17	8	35%	4%	60	-1.6	173/202/300	127	246	16	7	37%	3%	35	-1.9
✕Jerad Head 2013 · MLB	30	43→42	50→55	50	40	224/277/378	154	271	18	9	25%	5%	84	+0.1	222/273/352	130	270	14	7	23%	5%	76	-0.4	212/258/328	116	254	13	2	22%	4%	59	-1.2
✕Corky Miller 2008 · MLB	32	41	50	48→40	48	210/293/357	147	228	18	7	18%	7%	86	+0.3	213/286/335	122	245	13	5	19%	7%	77	-0.3	211/280/323	112	244	12	0	18%	7%	71	-0.3
✕Skye Bolt 2023 · MLB	29	48→40	50	54→50	44	242/302/395	153	302	18	14	26%	7%	96	+1.0	228/296/341	113	317	11	10	29%	8%	82	-0.0	217/293/302	86	317	6	5	31%	9%	70	-0.3

Daulton Varsho

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps