Oliver Ortega prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Oliver Ortega P St. Lucie Mets

Age 29 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 108 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.26

FIP4.30

K%24.6%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%14.6%

ROS IP108

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 108 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6195.3

Whiff%

p8230.3%

p5222.6%

xwOBA vs

p900.266

FB+1.1

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	19	2	44	195	37	17	0	11%	2.3	12.9%	10.9%	2.0%	0.0%	4.33	3.39	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	19	2	44	195	37	17	0	11%	2.3	19.0%	8.7%	10.3%	0.0%	4.33	2.57	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	AZL Angels	8	5	29	109	27	10	1	62%	3.6	16.8%	11.5%	5.4%	1.3%	2.83	3.84	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	AZL Angels	8	5	29	109	27	10	1	62%	3.6	24.8%	9.2%	15.6%	0.9%	2.83	2.72	—
2018	21	A MLE	Burlington Bees	19	18	82	346	86	41	6	95%	4.3	18.4%	14.0%	4.4%	2.5%	3.51	4.68	—
2018	21	A RAW	Burlington Bees	19	18	82	346	86	41	6	95%	4.3	24.9%	11.8%	13.0%	1.7%	3.51	3.45	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	21	111	474	135	57	8	81%	4.3	22.0%	13.7%	8.3%	2.2%	4.14	4.21	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	21	111	474	135	57	8	81%	4.3	28.5%	12.0%	16.5%	1.7%	4.14	3.15	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	52	232	65	20	6	0%	1.2	26.1%	10.1%	16.0%	2.8%	5.37	3.69	+0.5
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	0	52	232	65	20	6	0%	1.2	28.0%	8.6%	19.4%	2.6%	5.37	3.25	+0.8
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	60	269	60	26	8	0%	1.2	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	3.1%	4.68	4.25	+0.2
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	60	269	60	26	8	0%	1.2	22.3%	9.7%	12.6%	3.0%	4.68	4.14	+0.3
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	49	198	58	16	5	0%	1.5	26.2%	7.6%	18.6%	2.7%	2.55	3.31	+0.7
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	49	198	58	16	5	0%	1.5	26.2%	7.6%	18.6%	2.7%	2.55	3.31	+0.7
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	49	198	58	16	5	0%	1.5	29.3%	8.1%	21.2%	2.5%	2.55	3.04	+0.9
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	3	15	59	16	6	1	23%	1.1	27.1%	10.2%	16.9%	1.7%	3.07	3.03	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	3	15	59	16	6	1	23%	1.1	27.1%	10.2%	16.9%	1.7%	3.07	3.03	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	3	15	59	16	6	1	23%	1.1	27.1%	10.2%	16.9%	1.7%	3.07	3.03	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			45	0	58	250	51	27	8	0%	1.3	20.4%	10.8%	9.6%	3.2%	4.03	4.53	+0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	NYM	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.6%	10.0%	14.6%	3.0%	4.26	4.30	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	NYM	117	0	123	520	123	52	17	0%	1.1	23.7%	10.1%	13.6%	3.2%	4.40	4.50	+0.1
2028	31	MLB MLE	NYM	109	0	115	485	110	50	16	0%	1.1	22.8%	10.2%	12.6%	3.4%	4.58	4.71	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	NYM	35	0	37	156	37	16	5	0%	1.1	23.7%	10.1%	13.6%	3.2%	4.40	4.50	+0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	NYM	55	0	58	245	56	25	8	0%	1.1	22.8%	10.2%	12.6%	3.4%	4.58	4.71	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		135	0	153	650	144	68	21	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.4%	11.7%	3.3%	4.33	4.35	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		177	0	200	851	189	89	28	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.4%	11.7%	3.3%	4.33	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		211	49	441	1882	397	218	42	23%	2.1	21.1%	11.6%	9.5%	2.2%	3.96	4.00	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		96	22	200	854	180	99	19	23%	2.1	21.1%	11.6%	9.5%	2.2%	3.96	4.00	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Oliver Ortega (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.30	24.6%	10.0%	3.0%	—	4.60	23.2%	13.1%	238	+0.30	—	—	—
Junior Guerra R 2015 · 3.18 FIP	30	SW	3.18	26.8%	10.3%	1.9%	.269	4.15	20.8%	10.9%	390	+0.97	3.18	646	76
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	66
Oliver Drake R 2016 · 3.57 FIP	29	SU	3.57	29.7%	10.9%	2.9%	.289	3.25	28.4%	20.1%	183	-0.32	2.26	317	65
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	65
Elian Leyva R 2018 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	17.7%	7.3%	1.0%	.308	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	71	+1.20	3.10	158	64
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	64
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	63
Wilmer Font R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	29	SW	4.43	26.7%	7.6%	4.8%	.281	4.24	17.6%	7.0%	16	-0.19	2.76	345	63
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	63
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	62
John Axford R 2012 · 3.76 FIP	29	SU	3.76	30.0%	11.9%	3.1%	.300	3.87	24.3%	13.5%	175	+0.11	1.90	518	62
Lucas Erceg R 2023 · 3.50 FIP	28	SU	3.50	25.7%	13.8%	1.5%	.330	3.25	21.4%	13.5%	171	-0.25	2.10	351	62
Casey Sadler R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	29	SU	3.56	21.8%	4.9%	3.1%	.279	3.04	25.1%	15.9%	60	-0.52	2.21	385	62
Scott McGough R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	28	SU	4.26	22.6%	7.3%	3.9%	.372	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	429	61
Ryan Tepera R 2017 · 3.23 FIP	29	SU	3.23	25.4%	8.5%	2.2%	.245	4.11	25.5%	16.3%	107	+0.88	2.35	445	61
Justin Miller R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	29	SU	3.74	20.8%	9.7%	2.1%	.353	4.72	22.5%	16.5%	127	+0.98	2.63	292	61
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2012 · 3.90 FIP	28	SU	3.90	25.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.299	3.34	26.5%	16.9%	75	-0.56	3.34	335	61
Kirby Yates R 2016 · 3.11 FIP	29	SU	3.11	26.4%	9.6%	1.8%	.310	2.13	38.5%	32.2%	180	-0.98	0.66	526	60
Nolan Clenney R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	27	SU	4.76	23.0%	10.1%	4.2%	.341	4.58	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.18	3.73	223	60
Brandon Workman R 2018 · 3.72 FIP	29	SU	3.72	23.6%	7.5%	3.0%	.253	3.15	29.9%	16.3%	119	-0.57	2.04	398	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,179 pitcher careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	107	23.3%	10.2%	1.23	4.36
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11
Nate Karns ('19)	1.6	105	24.0%	9.3%	1.34	4.30
Zack Godley ('21)	2.8	95	22.1%	9.6%	1.16	4.92
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61
James McDonald ('13)	2.6	102	20.0%	10.4%	0.98	4.20
Jeff Juden ('99)	2.7	107	18.8%	10.5%	1.23	4.81