Zack Littell
P
Washington Nationals
Age 30
RHP
6'4" / 250 lbs
MLB
2026 ROS PROJECTION90 act + 84 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143134vR 125
ERA4.82
FIP5.12
K%16.0%
BB%5.6%
K-BB%10.4%
ROS IP84
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 174 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1191.7
Whiff%
p1017.2%
K%
p1014.8%
xwOBA vs
p100.381
SI (14%)
SL-0.9 (9%)
CT-1.6 (30%)
FB-8.8 (43%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 21 | 21 | 113 | 483 | 84 | 30 | 4 | 100% | 5.4 | 12.9% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 1.6% | 3.91 | 3.79 | — |
| 2015 | 19 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 21 | 21 | 113 | 483 | 84 | 30 | 4 | 100% | 5.4 | 17.4% | 6.2% | 11.2% | 0.8% | 3.91 | 2.87 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 27 | 166 | 669 | 156 | 34 | 8 | 96% | 5.9 | 17.5% | 5.9% | 11.6% | 1.6% | 2.66 | 3.26 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 27 | 166 | 669 | 156 | 34 | 8 | 96% | 5.9 | 23.3% | 5.1% | 18.2% | 1.2% | 2.66 | 2.46 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 157 | 631 | 142 | 41 | 8 | 93% | 5.8 | 17.9% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 1.7% | 2.12 | 3.44 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 157 | 631 | 142 | 41 | 8 | 93% | 5.8 | 22.5% | 6.5% | 16.0% | 1.3% | 2.12 | 2.74 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 22 | 149 | 655 | 144 | 58 | 11 | 69% | 4.7 | 19.3% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 2.1% | 4.28 | 3.82 | +2.8 |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 22 | 149 | 655 | 144 | 58 | 11 | 69% | 4.7 | 22.0% | 8.9% | 13.1% | 1.7% | 4.28 | 3.29 | +3.7 |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 7 | 100 | 411 | 100 | 33 | 15 | 14% | 2.0 | 22.3% | 8.3% | 14.0% | 4.2% | 3.33 | 4.56 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 7 | 100 | 411 | 100 | 33 | 15 | 14% | 2.0 | 24.3% | 8.0% | 16.3% | 3.6% | 3.33 | 4.04 | +1.6 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 6 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 9.7% | 9.7% | 0.0% | 16.1% | 9.95 | 12.36 | -0.6 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 6 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 9.7% | 9.7% | 0.0% | 16.1% | 9.95 | 13.84 | -0.7 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 65 | 2 | 64 | 263 | 64 | 25 | 8 | 3% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 9.1% | 15.9% | 3.0% | 3.11 | 3.80 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 65 | 2 | 64 | 263 | 64 | 25 | 8 | 3% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 9.5% | 14.8% | 3.0% | 3.11 | 3.90 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 54 | 1 | 60 | 255 | 54 | 18 | 11 | 2% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 7.0% | 13.5% | 4.9% | 5.28 | 4.95 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 54 | 1 | 60 | 255 | 54 | 18 | 11 | 2% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 7.1% | 14.1% | 4.3% | 5.28 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 14 | 104 | 441 | 91 | 17 | 15 | 36% | 2.7 | 20.2% | 3.9% | 16.2% | 3.5% | 4.15 | 3.82 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 14 | 104 | 441 | 91 | 17 | 15 | 36% | 2.7 | 20.6% | 3.9% | 16.8% | 3.4% | 4.15 | 3.72 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 29 | 29 | 156 | 656 | 141 | 31 | 22 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.5% | 4.7% | 16.8% | 3.5% | 3.63 | 3.83 | +2.9 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 29 | 29 | 156 | 656 | 141 | 31 | 22 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.5% | 4.7% | 16.8% | 3.4% | 3.63 | 3.72 | +3.1 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 32 | 32 | 187 | 759 | 130 | 31 | 36 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.1% | 4.1% | 13.0% | 4.5% | 3.81 | 4.64 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 32 | 32 | 187 | 759 | 130 | 31 | 36 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.1% | 4.1% | 13.0% | 4.7% | 3.81 | 4.71 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 19 | 12 | 90 | 384 | 57 | 26 | 23 | 63% | 4.7 | 14.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 4.90 | 5.99 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 84 | 354 | 57 | 20 | 17 | 100% | 7.6 | 16.0% | 5.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | 4.82 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 84 | 355 | 57 | 20 | 17 | 100% | 7.6 | 16.0% | 5.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | 4.82 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 174 | 738 | 114 | 46 | 40 | — | — | 15.4% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 5.4% | 4.86 | 5.57 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 174 | 734 | 114 | 46 | 40 | — | — | 15.5% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 4.86 | 5.59 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 23 | 23 | 162 | 684 | 106 | 41 | 35 | 100% | 7.0 | 15.5% | 6.0% | 9.6% | 5.1% | 5.50 | 5.71 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 150 | 633 | 93 | 40 | 34 | 100% | 6.8 | 14.7% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 5.78 | 5.96 | -1.0 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 138 | 581 | 81 | 40 | 32 | 100% | 6.9 | 13.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.06 | 6.24 | -1.4 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 23 | 23 | 162 | 684 | 106 | 41 | 35 | 100% | 7.0 | 15.5% | 6.0% | 9.6% | 5.1% | 5.50 | 5.71 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 150 | 633 | 93 | 40 | 34 | 100% | 6.8 | 14.7% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 5.78 | 5.96 | -1.0 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 138 | 583 | 81 | 40 | 33 | 100% | 6.9 | 13.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.06 | 6.24 | -1.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 329 | 167 | 1226 | 5150 | 890 | 298 | 239 | 51% | 3.7 | 17.3% | 5.8% | 11.5% | 4.6% | 4.71 | 4.92 | +6.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 27 | 200 | 840 | 145 | 49 | 39 | 51% | 3.7 | 17.3% | 5.8% | 11.5% | 4.6% | 4.71 | 4.92 | +1.1 | ||
| Career | — | 401 | 192 | 1351 | 5638 | 1048 | 366 | 181 | 48% | 3.4 | 18.6% | 6.5% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 3.64 | 4.12 | +20.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 28 | 200 | 834 | 155 | 54 | 27 | 48% | 3.4 | 18.6% | 6.5% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 3.64 | 4.12 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zack Littell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.68 | 18.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | — | 5.96 | 14.8% | 8.4% | 450 | +1.28 | — | — | — |
| Dillon Gee R 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.07 | 16.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | .302 | 3.88 | 18.0% | 12.1% | 127 | -1.19 | 3.62 | 380 | 48 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2028 · 4.47 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.47 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | .268 | 4.60 | 10.8% | 4.9% | 155 | +0.13 | 4.47 | 287 | 47 |
| Jerome Williams R 2029 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | .326 | 5.94 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.15 | 4.79 | 195 | 46 |
| Jason Berken R 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.69 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .315 | 4.31 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | -0.38 | 4.31 | 219 | 44 |
| Tim Adleman R 2025 · 5.42 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.42 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 5.2% | .276 | 4.57 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 117 | -0.85 | 3.61 | 605 | 43 |
| Dylan Axelrod R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.75 | 14.1% | 6.6% | 3.6% | .304 | 4.43 | 13.7% | 7.4% | 133 | -0.32 | 4.43 | 251 | 42 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.15 | 13.7% | 8.7% | 2.0% | .270 | 3.45 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 220 | -0.70 | 3.16 | 593 | 41 |
| Yohan Pino R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 40 |
| Doug Fister R 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.22 | 14.0% | 4.7% | 3.1% | .302 | 4.25 | 16.2% | 8.3% | 352 | +0.03 | 3.59 | 455 | 40 |
| Zach Neal R 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.41 | 13.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 732 | 40 |
| Chris Volstad R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.99 | 12.2% | 4.9% | 2.4% | .343 | 4.83 | 13.5% | 8.4% | 47 | +0.84 | 3.21 | 517 | 40 |
| Colin Bates R 2023 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 10.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 111 | 40 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 39 |
| Marco Estrada R 2028 · 4.32 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.32 | 18.1% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .213 | 4.55 | 20.6% | 12.0% | 506 | +0.23 | 4.04 | 710 | 39 |
| Casey Lawrence R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.92 | 18.1% | 4.4% | 3.3% | .305 | 3.98 | 20.0% | 14.8% | 86 | +0.06 | 3.50 | 1,320 | 39 |
| Scott Carroll R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.78 | 12.7% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .286 | 5.39 | 11.2% | 2.6% | 128 | +1.61 | 3.78 | 248 | 39 |
| Donovan Hand R 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.29 | 11.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | .305 | 4.30 | 12.5% | 5.7% | 140 | +0.01 | 4.29 | 237 | 38 |
| Paolo Espino R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.31 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 4.0% | .303 | 4.52 | 19.9% | 12.3% | 152 | +0.21 | 3.45 | 933 | 38 |
| Scott McGregor R 2024 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.19 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 107 | 38 |
| Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 37 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 156 | 15.7% | 5.8% | 1.91 | 5.38 |
| Jered Weaver ('17) | 3 | 126 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 1.83 | 5.15 |
| Jordan Zimmermann ('19) | 5 | 142 | 17.2% | 5.2% | 1.44 | 5.06 |
| Bartolo Colon ('18) | 4 | 169 | 15.1% | 4.0% | 1.45 | 4.80 |
| Ricky Nolasco ('17) | 3 | 139 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 1.38 | 4.85 |
| Jeremy Hellickson ('19) | 5 | 126 | 17.5% | 6.6% | 1.44 | 4.49 |
| Iván Nova ('19) | 5 | 158 | 16.3% | 5.3% | 1.38 | 4.40 |