Zack Littell
P
Washington Nationals
+1.1
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'4" / 250 lbs
MLB
peak 1.1 · 2026
ERA4.27
FIP4.59
xFIP5.16
SIERA5.03
K%18.9%
BB%4.7%
K-BB%14.2%
IP170
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL6565
CMD5050
K†4545
FB Velo
p1091.3
Whiff%
p1013.8%
K%
p1012.8%
xwOBA vs
p100.424
SI (16%)
SL-0.9 (10%)
CT-1.6 (28%)
FB-8.8 (41%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 21 | 21 | 113 | 483 | 84 | 30 | 4 | 12.9% | 7.3% | 1.3% | 3.91 | 3.66 | +2.1 |
| 2016 | 20 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | 28 | 27 | 166 | 669 | 156 | 34 | 8 | 17.5% | 5.9% | 1.6% | 2.66 | 3.24 | +3.9 |
| 2017 | 21 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 27 | 25 | 157 | 631 | 142 | 41 | 8 | 17.9% | 7.3% | 1.6% | 2.12 | 3.40 | +3.4 |
| 2018 | 22 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 32 | 22 | 149 | 655 | 144 | 58 | 11 | 19.3% | 9.3% | 1.9% | 4.28 | 3.68 | +2.7 |
| 2019 | 23 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 49 | 7 | 100 | 411 | 100 | 33 | 15 | 22.3% | 8.3% | 4.1% | 3.33 | 4.52 | +0.9 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 6 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 3 | 3 | 5 | — | — | — | 9.95 | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 65 | 2 | 64 | 263 | 64 | 25 | 8 | 25.0% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 3.11 | 3.77 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 54 | 1 | 60 | 255 | 54 | 18 | 11 | 20.5% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 5.28 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 39 | 14 | 104 | 441 | 91 | 17 | 15 | 20.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.15 | 3.67 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 29 | 29 | 156 | 656 | 141 | 31 | 22 | 21.5% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.63 | 3.74 | +2.8 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 32 | 32 | 187 | 759 | 130 | 31 | 36 | 17.1% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.81 | 4.56 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 3 | 2 | 15 | 66 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 4.20 | 6.94 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 105 | 31 | 26 | 17.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.26 | 4.63 | +1.1 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 158 | 671 | 115 | 36 | 31 | 17.1% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.25 | 4.85 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 142 | 600 | 100 | 32 | 26 | 16.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.93 | 5.12 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 23 | 23 | 127 | 536 | 86 | 29 | 24 | 16.1% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.12 | 5.24 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 113 | 476 | 73 | 27 | 22 | 15.4% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.27 | 5.37 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 18 | 18 | 100 | 421 | 62 | 24 | 19 | 14.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.41 | 5.51 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 16 | 16 | 87 | 369 | 52 | 22 | 17 | 14.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.56 | 5.66 | -0.5 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 14 | 76 | 320 | 49 | 18 | 16 | 15.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.55 | 5.55 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 385 | 182 | 1276 | 5320 | 1001 | 345 | 155 | 18.8% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 3.55 | 3.93 | +19.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 29 | 200 | 834 | 157 | 54 | 24 | 18.8% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 3.55 | 3.93 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zack Littell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 18.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | — | 5.23 | 16.1% | 10.7% | 382 | +0.57 | — | — | — |
| Cory Riordan R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.21 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 3.1% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 154 | 51 |
| Thad Weber R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.64 | 13.7% | 6.4% | 3.5% | .293 | 4.59 | 11.2% | 5.7% | 202 | -0.05 | 4.36 | 363 | 51 |
| Matt Garza R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.81 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 3.6% | .315 | 4.32 | 15.5% | 7.7% | 216 | -0.49 | 4.03 | 365 | 51 |
| Miguel González R 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.53 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 3.5% | .289 | 4.28 | 15.9% | 9.0% | 325 | -0.25 | 3.76 | 469 | 50 |
| Kyle Kendrick R 2026 · 5.71 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.71 | 12.7% | 6.8% | 5.1% | .294 | 5.01 | 14.4% | 9.9% | 195 | -0.70 | 4.42 | 337 | 49 |
| Jeff Samardzija R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.88 | 17.9% | 5.4% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.09 | 21.5% | 16.0% | 473 | +0.21 | 3.88 | 885 | 49 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2028 · 4.32 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.32 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 3.3% | .268 | 4.81 | 10.8% | 4.9% | 155 | +0.49 | 4.32 | 287 | 49 |
| Toru Murata R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.02 | 13.3% | 6.9% | 2.1% | .261 | 3.63 | 12.9% | 7.2% | 102 | -0.39 | 3.63 | 267 | 48 |
| Mike Leake R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.79 | 15.2% | 4.0% | 2.7% | .301 | 4.99 | 15.2% | 12.2% | 197 | +1.20 | 3.60 | 937 | 47 |
| Christian Bergman R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.34 | 15.7% | 6.3% | 3.2% | .327 | 7.35 | 13.2% | 6.6% | 26 | +3.01 | 4.13 | 467 | 47 |
| Aníbal Sánchez R 2027 · 4.84 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.84 | 20.9% | 7.3% | 4.7% | .276 | 4.44 | 22.2% | 15.0% | 411 | -0.40 | 3.64 | 869 | 47 |
| Kyle Davies R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.55 | 13.8% | 6.1% | 1.5% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 153 | 47 |
| Greg Peavey R 2023 · 4.37 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.37 | 11.2% | 6.5% | 2.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.37 | 147 | 47 |
| Marco Estrada R 2028 · 4.19 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.19 | 18.1% | 7.3% | 3.1% | .213 | 4.56 | 20.6% | 12.0% | 506 | +0.37 | 4.10 | 710 | 47 |
| Elih Villanueva R 2025 · 3.82 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.82 | 11.0% | 5.5% | 1.7% | .269 | 5.50 | 14.1% | 8.1% | 57 | +1.68 | 3.82 | 225 | 47 |
| Charlie Morton R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.48 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 2.0% | .302 | 3.15 | 27.7% | 18.9% | 331 | -0.33 | 2.52 | 1,534 | 47 |
| Iván Nova R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.41 | 16.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | .294 | 4.60 | 15.0% | 9.6% | 367 | +0.19 | 4.13 | 810 | 46 |
| Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.37 | 19.0% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .291 | 4.70 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 110 | +0.33 | 4.37 | 474 | 46 |
| Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.37 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 3.9% | .289 | 3.76 | 21.1% | 14.8% | 390 | -0.61 | 3.61 | 1,008 | 46 |
| Miles Mikolas R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.23 | 18.8% | 4.1% | 4.0% | .295 | 3.85 | 18.4% | 13.4% | 266 | -0.38 | 3.13 | 1,196 | 46 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.