Zack Littell — OGILVIE

Zack Littell P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 250 lbs MLB

2026 ROS PROJECTION124 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA4.71

FIP4.98

K%14.8%

BB%6.1%

K-BB%8.7%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 139 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1191.7

Whiff%

p1016.2%

p1013.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.384

SI (14%)

SL-0.9 (9%)

CT-1.6 (28%)

FB-8.8 (40%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	19	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	21	21	113	483	84	30	4	100%	5.4	12.9%	7.3%	5.5%	1.3%	3.91	3.64	—
2015	19	A RAW	Clinton LumberKings	21	21	113	483	84	30	4	100%	5.4	17.4%	6.2%	11.2%	0.8%	3.91	2.87	—
2016	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	166	669	156	34	8	96%	5.9	17.5%	5.9%	11.6%	1.6%	2.66	3.23	—
2016	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	166	669	156	34	8	96%	5.9	23.3%	5.1%	18.2%	1.2%	2.66	2.46	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	157	631	142	41	8	93%	5.8	17.9%	7.3%	10.6%	1.6%	2.12	3.40	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	157	631	142	41	8	93%	5.8	22.5%	6.5%	16.0%	1.3%	2.12	2.74	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	22	149	655	144	58	11	69%	4.7	19.3%	9.3%	10.0%	2.0%	4.28	3.73	+2.1
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	22	149	655	144	58	11	69%	4.7	22.0%	8.9%	13.1%	1.7%	4.28	3.29	+2.9
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	7	100	411	100	33	15	14%	2.0	22.3%	8.3%	14.0%	4.0%	3.33	4.49	+0.1
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	7	100	411	100	33	15	14%	2.0	24.3%	8.0%	16.3%	3.6%	3.33	4.04	+0.6
2020	24	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	6	0	6	31	3	3	5	0%	1.1	9.7%	9.7%	0.0%	16.1%	9.95	12.36	-0.6
2020	24	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	6	0	6	31	3	3	5	0%	1.1	9.7%	9.7%	0.0%	16.1%	9.95	13.84	-0.7
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	2	64	263	64	25	8	3%	1.0	25.0%	9.1%	15.9%	3.0%	3.11	3.79	+0.6
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	2	64	263	64	25	8	3%	1.0	24.3%	9.5%	14.8%	3.0%	3.11	3.90	+0.5
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	54	1	60	255	54	18	11	2%	1.1	20.5%	7.0%	13.5%	4.9%	5.28	4.93	-0.3
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	54	1	60	255	54	18	11	2%	1.1	21.2%	7.1%	14.1%	4.3%	5.28	4.59	-0.0
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	14	104	441	91	17	15	36%	2.7	20.0%	3.7%	16.3%	3.5%	4.15	3.79	+0.9
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	14	104	441	91	17	15	36%	2.7	20.0%	3.7%	16.3%	3.5%	4.15	3.79	+0.9
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	14	104	441	91	17	15	36%	2.7	20.6%	3.9%	16.8%	3.4%	4.15	3.72	+1.0
2024	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	29	29	156	656	141	31	22	100%	5.4	21.5%	4.7%	16.8%	3.4%	3.63	3.78	+2.1
2024	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	29	29	156	656	141	31	22	100%	5.4	21.5%	4.7%	16.8%	3.4%	3.63	3.78	+2.1
2024	28	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	29	29	156	656	141	31	22	100%	5.4	21.5%	4.7%	16.8%	3.4%	3.63	3.72	+2.2
2025	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	32	32	187	759	130	31	36	100%	5.8	17.1%	4.1%	13.0%	4.4%	3.81	4.58	+0.7
2025	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	32	32	187	759	130	31	36	100%	5.8	17.1%	4.1%	13.0%	4.4%	3.81	4.58	+0.7
2025	29	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	32	32	187	759	130	31	36	100%	5.8	17.1%	4.1%	13.0%	4.7%	3.81	4.71	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			260	93	727	3054	569	170	128	36%	2.8	18.6%	5.6%	13.1%	4.2%	4.11	4.53	+0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	26	14	124	540	73	39	30	54%	4.8	13.5%	7.2%	6.3%	5.9%	5.21	6.10	-1.6
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	26	14	124	540	73	39	30	54%	4.8	13.5%	7.2%	6.3%	5.9%	5.21	6.10	-1.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	MLB RAW	ARI	26	14	124	540	73	39	30	54%	4.8	13.5%	7.2%	6.3%	5.6%	5.21	5.92	-1.4
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	ARI	26	14	124	540	73	39	30	54%	4.8	13.5%	7.2%	6.3%	5.6%	5.21	5.92	-1.4
ROS	30	MLB MLE	ARI	2	2	15	62	9	4	3	100%	7.3	14.8%	6.1%	8.7%	4.3%	4.71	4.98	-0.0
ROS	30	MLB CTX	ARI	2	2	15	63	9	4	3	100%	7.5	14.8%	6.1%	8.7%	4.3%	4.71	4.98	-0.0
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	139	602	82	43	33	—	—	13.6%	7.1%	6.5%	5.4%	5.16	5.98	-1.6
FULL	30	MLB A+C	ARI	—	—	139	587	82	43	33	—	—	14.0%	7.3%	6.7%	5.6%	5.16	5.90	-1.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	ARI	23	23	162	684	99	44	34	100%	7.0	14.4%	6.4%	8.0%	5.0%	5.61	5.81	-1.6
2028	32	MLB MLE	ARI	21	21	150	633	86	43	33	100%	7.1	13.6%	6.8%	6.8%	5.2%	5.88	6.07	-1.8
2027	31	MLB CTX	ARI	23	23	162	684	99	44	34	100%	7.0	14.4%	6.4%	8.0%	5.0%	5.61	5.81	-1.6
2028	32	MLB CTX	ARI	21	21	150	633	86	43	33	100%	7.1	13.6%	6.8%	6.8%	5.2%	5.88	6.07	-1.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		306	139	1054	4433	763	261	198	45%	3.4	17.2%	5.9%	11.3%	4.5%	4.60	4.84	-3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		58	26	200	841	145	50	38	45%	3.4	17.2%	5.9%	11.3%	4.5%	4.60	4.84	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		408	194	1386	5794	1063	378	185	48%	3.4	18.4%	6.5%	11.8%	3.2%	3.70	4.13	-4.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	28	200	836	153	55	27	48%	3.4	18.4%	6.5%	11.8%	3.2%	3.70	4.13	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zack Littell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	18.1%	4.3%	3.9%	—	5.93	14.0%	7.4%	312	+1.30	—	—	—
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	30	SW	4.09	13.7%	8.7%	1.9%	.270	3.53	19.1%	10.5%	220	-0.56	3.13	593	54
Dillon Gee R 2016 · 5.10 FIP	30	SW	5.10	16.2%	6.2%	4.7%	.302	3.85	18.0%	12.1%	127	-1.25	3.67	380	52
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	48
Chase Anderson R 2018 · 4.98 FIP	30	SP	4.98	19.9%	8.9%	4.4%	.235	4.93	20.1%	11.9%	253	-0.05	3.30	1,146	48
Jerome Williams R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	33	SP-	4.72	13.4%	5.6%	3.7%	.326	5.81	11.7%	5.6%	74	+1.09	4.72	195	47
Daniel McCutchen R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.74	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.44	4.30	287	46
Zach Neal R 2018 · 4.44 FIP	29	SW	4.44	13.8%	3.6%	3.7%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	732	46
Jeremy Hellickson R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	30	SP	5.25	13.8%	6.5%	4.5%	.241	4.29	17.7%	11.3%	147	-0.96	3.74	646	46
Chi Chi González R 2022 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.6%	8.0%	3.0%	.315	5.36	10.8%	5.2%	122	+1.06	4.01	800	45
Adrian Sampson R 2022 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP	4.22	16.1%	6.2%	3.1%	.278	4.92	13.8%	6.5%	244	+0.70	3.23	1,012	44
Jason Berken R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	31	SW	4.34	13.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.315	4.54	11.5%	3.2%	106	+0.20	4.34	219	44
Mike Bolsinger R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	29	SW	4.26	20.2%	9.4%	3.0%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	327	44
Dylan Axelrod R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	30	SP-	4.75	14.1%	6.6%	3.6%	.304	4.28	13.7%	7.4%	133	-0.47	4.28	251	43
Jhoulys Chacín R 2018 · 3.71 FIP	30	SP	3.71	19.6%	8.5%	2.1%	.244	5.07	20.0%	10.1%	168	+1.36	3.71	887	43
Rick Porcello R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	30	SP	4.51	18.6%	5.6%	4.1%	.303	3.13	20.7%	15.0%	59	-1.38	3.13	1,023	43
Masahiro Tanaka R 2019 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	19.6%	5.3%	3.5%	.292	4.08	22.3%	18.2%	48	+0.07	3.34	918	42
Jordan Zimmermann R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	30	SP	4.38	14.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.297	4.80	16.8%	11.6%	403	+0.42	3.57	731	42
Christian Bergman R 2018 · 4.37 FIP	30	SP	4.37	15.7%	6.3%	3.3%	.327	7.36	13.2%	6.6%	26	+2.99	3.99	467	42
Casey Lawrence R 2018 · 3.77 FIP	30	SP-	3.77	18.1%	4.4%	3.0%	.305	4.08	20.0%	14.8%	86	+0.31	3.57	1,365	42
Scott Carroll R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	30	SW	3.92	12.7%	7.7%	1.7%	.286	5.07	11.2%	2.6%	128	+1.15	3.92	248	42

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	162	15.5%	5.8%	1.81	5.25
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47