Adbert Alzolay
P
Chicago Cubs
+0.2
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'1" / 208 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA3.91
FIP4.44
xFIP4.88
SIERA4.42
K%22.9%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%14.8%
IP23
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p5294.7
Whiff%
p3322.9%
K%
p1617.3%
xwOBA vs
p100.390
SI (24%)
CT (8%)
FB-1.2 (44%)
SL-3.4 (48%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | A | South Bend Cubs | 22 | 20 | 120 | 498 | 81 | 28 | 9 | 12.0% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 4.34 | 4.22 | +1.5 |
| 2017 | 22 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 22 | 22 | 114 | 463 | 108 | 34 | 8 | 18.2% | 8.3% | 2.3% | 2.99 | 3.89 | +1.8 |
| 2018 | 23 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 8 | 8 | 40 | 171 | 27 | 13 | 4 | 13.9% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.76 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 20 | 18 | 82 | 362 | 107 | 40 | 15 | 27.2% | 11.5% | 4.3% | 5.18 | 4.62 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 6 | 4 | 21 | 87 | 29 | 13 | 1 | 33.3% | 14.9% | 1.2% | 2.95 | 2.85 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 30 | 22 | 128 | 530 | 131 | 33 | 26 | 24.7% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.79 | 4.37 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 11 | 5 | 26 | 110 | 35 | 8 | 2 | 36.5% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 4.56 | 1.61 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 58 | 0 | 64 | 253 | 67 | 13 | 5 | 26.5% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 2.67 | 2.60 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 21 | 1 | 20 | 90 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 5.31 | 7.08 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 21 | — | 21 | 90 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 23.8% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 3.87 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 23.2% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 4.24 | 4.49 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 198 | 100 | 615 | 2564 | 549 | 197 | 83 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 4.14 | 4.05 | +8.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 33 | 200 | 834 | 179 | 64 | 27 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 4.14 | 4.05 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adbert Alzolay (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 23.8% | 8.2% | 3.4% | — | 4.49 | 23.2% | 14.8% | 20 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 78 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .246 | 3.65 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.24 | 1.69 | 468 | 77 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 76 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 75 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 75 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 74 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 74 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 74 |
| David Robertson R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.30 | 28.1% | 10.5% | 2.3% | .297 | 2.39 | 34.6% | 26.8% | 138 | -0.91 | 2.00 | 494 | 73 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.51 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.50 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.01 | 2.67 | 186 | 72 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 27.7% | 8.0% | 4.5% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 281 | 72 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 72 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.09 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .278 | 3.53 | 24.3% | 18.2% | 99 | -0.56 | 2.31 | 403 | 71 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 71 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2024 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 71 |
| Tommy Nance R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.23 | 29.1% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .345 | 2.77 | 23.7% | 17.8% | 118 | -0.46 | 2.11 | 300 | 71 |
| Matt Bush R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.65 | 24.2% | 7.9% | 2.9% | .321 | 4.65 | 17.6% | 4.6% | 23 | +1.00 | 2.88 | 249 | 71 |
| Aaron Barrett R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 3.1% | .246 | 4.56 | 19.9% | 6.4% | 38 | +0.71 | 1.82 | 119 | 71 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.39 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.70 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.31 | 2.80 | 410 | 71 |
| Robert Stock R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.16 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .301 | 7.43 | 14.7% | -1.9% | 23 | +3.27 | 2.91 | 334 | 70 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.