Ray Cebulski — OGILVIE

Ray Cebulski P Inland Empire 66ers

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 33 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.53

FIP4.53

K%21.6%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP34

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	29	0	48	236	50	20	7	0%	1.7	15.7%	10.0%	5.7%	3.9%	7.08	5.16	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	29	0	48	236	50	20	7	0%	1.7	15.7%	10.0%	5.7%	3.9%	7.08	5.16	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	SEA	29	0	48	236	50	20	7	0%	1.7	21.2%	8.5%	12.7%	3.0%	7.08	4.01	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SEA	46	0	48	205	46	19	6	0%	1.1	22.3%	9.1%	13.2%	3.0%	4.44	4.39	+0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	SEA	47	0	49	207	47	18	6	0%	1.0	22.8%	8.9%	13.9%	3.0%	4.36	4.32	+0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	SEA	47	0	49	207	48	18	6	0%	1.0	23.0%	8.9%	14.1%	3.0%	4.32	4.29	+0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	SEA	46	0	48	204	47	18	6	0%	1.1	23.0%	8.9%	14.0%	3.0%	4.33	4.33	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	SEA	20	0	21	89	20	8	3	0%	1.1	22.3%	9.1%	13.2%	3.0%	4.44	4.39	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	SEA	31	0	33	139	32	12	4	0%	1.1	22.8%	8.9%	13.9%	3.0%	4.36	4.32	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	SEA	37	0	39	165	38	15	5	0%	1.1	23.0%	8.9%	14.1%	3.0%	4.32	4.29	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	SEA	39	0	41	173	40	15	5	0%	1.1	23.0%	8.9%	14.0%	3.0%	4.33	4.33	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		127	0	133	563	129	50	17	0%	1.1	22.8%	8.9%	13.9%	3.0%	4.35	3.95	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	75	25	0%	1.1	22.8%	8.9%	13.9%	3.0%	4.35	3.95	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		29	0	48	236	37	24	9	0%	1.7	15.7%	10.0%	5.7%	3.9%	7.08	5.16	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	0	200	977	153	98	38	0%	1.7	15.7%	10.0%	5.7%	3.9%	7.08	5.16	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ray Cebulski (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	21.6%	9.6%	3.0%	—	4.33	22.7%	13.7%	147	-0.20	—	—	—
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	95
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	90
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	90
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	90
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	90
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	88
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	88
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	88
Carlos Navas R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	23	SU	3.67	22.0%	8.4%	2.5%	.283	3.52	22.0%	16.1%	229	-0.15	2.98	385	88
Josh Advocate R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.71	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.07	3.71	118	88
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	88
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	87
Reilly Hovis R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	21.1%	7.7%	3.6%	.250	4.36	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.08	4.28	130	87
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	87
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	87
Alex Klonowski R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	21.8%	9.4%	2.1%	.331	4.69	14.3%	7.1%	413	+1.11	3.58	539	87
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	87
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	87
Johnny Barbato R 2015 · 3.57 FIP	23	SU	3.57	21.3%	9.4%	2.0%	.284	4.32	21.6%	11.4%	167	+0.75	2.59	304	87
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	46	22.6%	9.0%	1.16	4.39
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68