Matt Dunaway — OGILVIE

Matt Dunaway P Eugene Emeralds

Age 27 RHP 5'11" / 232 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 8 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.32

FIP4.32

K%19.0%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%12.5%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	26	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	8	1	15	56	9	2	1	12%	1.8	12.4%	4.1%	8.3%	2.3%	1.84	3.82	—
2025	26	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	8	1	15	56	9	2	1	12%	1.8	12.4%	4.1%	8.3%	2.3%	1.84	3.82	—
2025	26	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	8	1	15	56	9	2	1	12%	1.8	16.1%	3.6%	12.5%	1.8%	1.84	3.17	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	23	1	35	151	37	11	5	4%	1.5	19.5%	7.7%	11.8%	4.7%	5.09	4.99	—
YTD	27	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	23	1	35	151	37	11	5	4%	1.5	19.5%	7.7%	11.8%	4.7%	5.09	4.99	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	ROK RAW	SF	3	1	3	17	3	2	0	33%	1.0	17.6%	11.8%	5.9%	0.0%	9.00	3.10	—
2026	27	A+ RAW	SF	20	0	32	134	34	9	5	0%	1.6	25.4%	6.7%	18.7%	3.7%	4.73	3.86	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SF	19	0	20	84	16	6	3	0%	1.1	19.3%	6.9%	12.4%	3.1%	4.37	4.41	+0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	SF	7	0	7	30	6	2	1	0%	1.0	19.3%	6.9%	12.4%	3.1%	4.37	4.41	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	6	2	1	0%	1.0	19.3%	6.9%	12.4%	3.1%	4.37	4.03	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	164	55	27	0%	1.1	19.3%	6.9%	12.4%	3.1%	4.37	4.03	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		31	2	50	207	36	14	8	6%	1.6	17.6%	6.7%	10.9%	4.0%	4.14	4.67	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		124	8	200	828	146	56	33	6%	1.6	17.6%	6.7%	10.9%	4.0%	4.14	4.67	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Dunaway (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.32	19.0%	6.5%	3.0%	—	4.41	19.3%	12.4%	20	+0.09	—	—	—
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	85
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	85
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	84
Mark Serrano R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	17.7%	6.5%	1.3%	.290	4.36	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.20	3.16	120	80
Andrew Robinson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	17.6%	6.3%	2.5%	.246	3.64	22.7%	14.4%	97	-0.13	3.19	160	80
Conor Mullee R 2015 · 3.26 FIP	27	SU	3.26	17.7%	7.2%	1.4%	.290	2.64	24.2%	16.3%	55	-0.62	2.17	110	80
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	80
Ryan Doolittle R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	27	SU	4.03	15.1%	6.7%	2.5%	.315	4.38	13.9%	6.8%	44	+0.35	4.03	101	79
Miguel Mejia R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	19.6%	7.2%	1.8%	.359	5.21	12.8%	2.8%	47	+1.84	3.37	108	78
Pedro Rodriguez R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	27	SU	3.21	16.4%	4.5%	1.7%	.272	3.70	13.1%	5.2%	43	+0.49	3.21	145	78
Chris Martin R 2015 · 3.24 FIP	29	SU	3.24	18.1%	7.0%	1.4%	.319	3.04	20.9%	19.2%	42	-0.20	1.76	416	78
Heath Hembree R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	27	SU	3.74	21.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.292	4.03	27.3%	18.8%	162	+0.29	2.58	382	78
Kurt Spomer R 2016 · 3.17 FIP	27	SU	3.17	17.7%	6.1%	1.4%	.348	3.61	11.7%	2.4%	78	+0.44	3.17	199	78
Jhan Mariñez R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	27	SU	3.16	18.6%	6.7%	1.4%	.294	4.02	19.0%	10.6%	106	+0.86	3.16	253	78
Ryan Kelly R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	20.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.241	3.21	20.8%	14.2%	43	-0.31	2.49	131	77
Brad Deppermann R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	22.7%	9.4%	3.4%	.417	2.87	19.5%	13.2%	71	-1.38	1.94	143	77
Joe Navilhon R 2019 · 3.23 FIP	26	SU	3.23	20.5%	7.7%	1.6%	.322	4.28	23.4%	16.7%	99	+1.05	2.25	273	77
Rob Griswold R 2023 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	16.6%	6.2%	2.0%	.303	4.68	10.7%	4.3%	100	+1.11	3.57	203	77
Anthony Bass R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	27	SU	3.56	16.5%	7.0%	1.8%	.300	3.43	21.6%	14.2%	123	-0.13	2.93	432	77
Cory Gearrin R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	29	SU	3.52	22.1%	7.5%	2.5%	.283	3.54	22.2%	13.6%	174	+0.02	3.15	272	77