Fabian Gonzalez — OGILVIE

Fabian GonzalezOF DSL Blue Jays Blue

Age 19 R/R 6'0" / 175 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 130 proj PA

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .280 / .291

PA130

HR1

K%26

BB%8

ISO82

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 51 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT51

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED57

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	51	47	12	3	0	0	2	10	2	0	0	255	314	319	633	64	324	20	4	291	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	156	122	24	9	0	1	27	31	0	11	1	197	342	295	637	98	242	20	17	289	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	51	48	7	2	0	0	1	13	2	0	0	146	196	188	384	42	201	25	2	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	156	130	17	6	0	1	19	38	0	11	1	131	242	200	442	69	148	24	12	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	51	48	7	2	0	0	1	13	2	0	0	146	196	188	384	42	200	25	2	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	51	47	12	3	0	0	2	10	2	0	0	255	314	319	633	64	324	20	4	291	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	156	130	17	6	0	1	19	38	0	11	1	131	242	200	442	69	167	24	12	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	156	122	24	9	0	1	27	31	0	11	1	197	342	295	637	98	242	20	17	289	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	51	48	7	2	0	0	1	13	2	0	0	146	196	188	384	42	201	25	2	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	156	136	17	6	0	1	19	38	0	11	1	125	242	191	433	66	148	24	12	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	51	48	7	2	0	0	1	13	2	0	0	146	196	188	384	42	201	25	2	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	156	136	17	6	0	1	19	38	0	11	1	125	242	191	433	66	148	24	12	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	TOR	0%	266	241	52	11	2	2	21	70	2	5	1	212	282	294	576	82	287	26	8	263	64	-11	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	TOR	34%	216	195	42	9	1	2	17	56	2	5	1	216	288	306	594	90	288	26	8	271	69	-8	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.4
2028	20	MLB CTX	TOR	34%	74	67	14	3	0	1	6	19	1	2	0	217	288	307	596	90	290	26	8	271	69	-3	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	74	67	14	3	0	1	6	19	1	2	0	209	284	299	582	90	277	26	8	271	48	-3	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	123	26	0	9	53	167	9	18	0	209	285	299	583	90	276	26	8	271	48	-24	+4	+0	-4	+14	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	553	491	91	22	2	4	47	141	5	19	3	185	263	263	526	77	246	25	8	239	48	-13	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	107	26	2	5	55	166	6	22	4	185	263	263	527	78	246	26	8	239	48	-25	+2	+0	-4	+14	-1.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.3	204	2	4	214	282	300	-1	+0	-0.3	-0.2
/162	664	5	14	-4.0	+0.0	-1.0	pk7: 0
#5Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Fabian Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	19	46→51	30→35	52→57	60	210/280/291	81	287	1	3	26%	8%	64	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Emaarion Boyd 2023 · A	19	49→55	37→40	51→65	46	227/298/303	77	306	4	16	26%	8%	74	-0.6	226/297/294	68	295	3	34	23%	6%	71	-0.8	218/291/286	67	287	3	43	23%	6%	65	-0.8
✕Cesar Quintas 2022 · A	19	44→48	38→45	50→45	45	209/292/292	83	270	5	7	23%	7%	70	-0.8	200/279/275	75	302	5	5	33%	6%	61	-1.5	200/288/307	107	285	10	6	31%	6%	70	-0.5
✕Benny Montgomery 2022 · A	19	47→43	37→40	52→50	43	222/274/292	70	307	4	12	28%	6%	61	-1.5	225/283/331	106	361	9	12	37%	6%	74	-0.5	207/268/294	86	347	7	11	39%	6%	57	-1.1
✕Jose Monserrate 2024 · A	19	44	36→40	51→50	50	208/283/278	70	259	3	14	20%	8%	63	-1.4	204/281/263	59	303	2	23	30%	9%	58	-1.7	186/268/229	43	294	1	34	33%	9%	43	-0.7
✕Jermaine Palacios 2015 · A	19	42→50	36→45	55→50	53	194/287/270	75	252	1	13	22%	10%	63	-1.4	231/274/324	93	290	5	10	21%	5%	68	-1.0	241/273/344	103	303	7	10	22%	3%	70	-0.5
✕Braulio Vasquez 2018 · A	19	47	34→40	52→65	44	215/281/268	53	304	1	15	28%	7%	59	-1.7	198/257/271	73	304	5	8	34%	6%	51	-2.3	189/270/268	79	286	5	32	33%	8%	53	-0.8
✕Justin Connell 2018 · A	19	50→53	35→40	48→50	50	231/293/293	62	277	3	9	17%	8%	69	-0.9	210/273/271	61	264	4	10	20%	7%	57	-1.8	212/280/302	89	284	8	12	27%	7%	64	-1.0
✕Adanson Cruz 2021 · A	20	45	37→40	52→50	45	211/283/292	81	298	4	9	28%	8%	65	-1.2	178/244/250	72	372	5	6	49%	7%	41	-3.0	148/219/207	58	306	4	6	49%	7%	21	-1.3
✕Erick Torres 2024 · A	19	44	36→30	53→50	47	209/272/282	74	262	3	15	21%	7%	59	-1.7	211/271/270	59	265	3	14	20%	7%	55	-1.9	213/271/263	50	265	3	15	20%	6%	51	-1.6
✕Pablo Olivares 2017 · A	19	46→44	35→40	50	45	210/281/282	71	261	1	10	19%	6%	63	-1.4	222/292/299	77	295	5	11	25%	6%	70	-0.8	220/297/294	73	283	5	14	22%	7%	68	-0.5
✕Carlos Tatis 2016 · A	19	45	36→45	53→45	44	209/270/277	68	284	3	11	26%	7%	57	-1.8	195/249/278	83	253	6	5	24%	6%	49	-2.4	180/233/257	77	232	7	3	25%	5%	37	-1.2
✕Johnfrank Salazar 2023 · A	19	45	35→40	51→45	47	211/272/277	67	256	2	6	18%	6%	57	-1.8	221/276/308	87	270	7	6	20%	6%	65	-1.2	217/273/297	80	262	7	8	19%	6%	60	-0.7
✕Jose Meza 2022 · A	19	39→42	37→40	46→50	43	187/268/261	74	272	4	9	30%	7%	54	-2.0	196/281/287	91	276	8	7	29%	9%	64	-1.3	191/284/291	101	272	10	5	31%	10%	65	-0.5
✕Dubal Baez 2012 · A	19	44	34→30	52→60	50	201/303/251	50	270	2	16	24%	9%	66	-1.1	204/286/251	47	269	1	19	22%	8%	58	-1.7	200/279/232	31	261	0	26	21%	8%	48	-0.7
✕Ray-Patrick Didder 2014 · A	19	44→49	34→45	49→60	52	200/298/250	50	272	2	10	24%	10%	63	-1.4	205/278/271	66	282	2	11	26%	6%	59	-1.7	210/286/285	75	287	3	16	26%	5%	62	-0.8
✕Jose Paez 2013 · A	19	44	38→45	50	46	210/269/292	82	266	4	13	22%	6%	59	-1.6	202/248/279	77	299	4	11	32%	5%	49	-2.4	176/218/244	68	280	3	12	36%	4%	25	-1.1
✕Carlos Caro 2024 · A	19	44	41→45	48→55	46	210/298/307	97	285	8	13	27%	8%	76	-0.4	196/272/275	79	283	6	15	30%	8%	58	-1.7	182/259/257	76	270	7	19	33%	8%	46	-1.0
✕Yimy Tovar 2024 · A	18	46	39→45	51→55	48	218/287/307	89	276	7	8	23%	8%	70	-0.8	202/282/280	78	263	4	13	23%	9%	63	-1.4	199/276/278	79	257	5	16	23%	9%	59	-0.6
✕Mikey Edie 2016 · A	19	47	34→30	49→50	43	217/292/269	52	283	2	13	22%	6%	64	-1.3	211/266/268	57	313	2	15	31%	4%	53	-2.1	184/233/237	53	275	2	10	32%	3%	30	-1.5
✕Jesus Morelli 2009 · A	19	45	39→40	47→50	52	214/300/306	91	267	6	12	21%	9%	76	-0.4	215/279/278	63	295	3	10	26%	6%	60	-1.6	220/281/262	41	289	0	14	22%	6%	54	-0.5

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps