Justin Connell
OF Cedar Rapids Kernels| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | AAWSH | 29 | .167/.259/.208 | 0 | 0 | 12 | — | .160/.222/.200 |
| 2024 | 25 | INTLGigantes de C… | 23 | .100/.182/.100 | 0 | 0 | -20 | — | |
| 2025 | 26 | A+MIN | 80 | .231/.375/.431 | 2 | 4 | 74 | — | .188/.300/.362 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 28 | MLBMIN | 200 | .216/.295/.336 | 3 | 6 | 79 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ22% MLB | 29 | MLBMIN | 26 | .215/.293/.334 | 0 | 1 | 78 | -0.0 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | GCL Nationals | — | 113 | 96 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 323 | 414 | 365 | 779 | 42 | 352 | 9 | 12 | 355 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Nationals | — | 93 | 78 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 244 | 344 | 295 | 639 | 51 | 273 | 13 | 12 | 292 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Hagerstown Suns | — | 510 | 433 | 108 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 49 | 75 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 249 | 339 | 321 | 660 | 72 | 292 | 15 | 10 | 296 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 417 | 372 | 109 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 72 | 5 | 21 | 13 | 293 | 359 | 398 | 756 | 105 | 347 | 17 | 8 | 336 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 379 | 318 | 73 | 18 | 1 | 11 | 48 | 111 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 230 | 347 | 396 | 743 | 167 | 313 | 29 | 13 | 334 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 81 | 71 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 254 | 338 | 437 | 774 | 183 | 306 | 23 | 9 | 342 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 29 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 167 | 259 | 208 | 468 | 42 | 211 | 17 | 10 | 210 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | INTL | Gigantes de Carolina | — | 23 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 182 | 100 | 282 | 125 | 17 | 9 | 139 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 80 | 65 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 231 | 375 | 431 | 806 | 200 | 255 | 15 | 15 | 364 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 113 | 101 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 257 | 324 | 287 | 611 | 30 | 289 | 12 | 8 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 93 | 82 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 207 | 278 | 256 | 534 | 49 | 225 | 18 | 8 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 510 | 448 | 93 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 34 | 107 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 208 | 278 | 266 | 544 | 58 | 247 | 21 | 7 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 417 | 381 | 96 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 100 | 5 | 21 | 13 | 252 | 305 | 339 | 643 | 87 | 320 | 24 | 6 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 379 | 331 | 66 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 35 | 136 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 199 | 293 | 335 | 629 | 136 | 295 | 36 | 9 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 81 | 74 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 189 | 250 | 311 | 561 | 122 | 257 | 31 | 5 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 29 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 160 | 222 | 200 | 422 | 40 | 197 | 21 | 7 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 80 | 69 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 188 | 300 | 362 | 662 | 174 | 209 | 20 | 10 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 113 | 101 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 257 | 324 | 287 | 611 | 30 | 292 | 12 | 8 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Nationals | — | 113 | 96 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 323 | 414 | 365 | 779 | 42 | 352 | 9 | 12 | 355 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 93 | 82 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 207 | 278 | 256 | 534 | 49 | 246 | 18 | 8 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK RAW | GCL Nationals | — | 93 | 78 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 244 | 344 | 295 | 639 | 51 | 273 | 13 | 12 | 292 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 510 | 448 | 93 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 34 | 107 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 208 | 278 | 266 | 544 | 58 | 263 | 21 | 7 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A RAW | Hagerstown Suns | — | 510 | 433 | 108 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 49 | 75 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 249 | 339 | 321 | 660 | 72 | 292 | 15 | 10 | 296 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 417 | 381 | 96 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 100 | 5 | 21 | 13 | 252 | 305 | 339 | 643 | 87 | 326 | 24 | 6 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ RAW | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 417 | 372 | 109 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 72 | 5 | 21 | 13 | 293 | 359 | 398 | 756 | 105 | 347 | 17 | 8 | 336 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 460 | 404 | 80 | 19 | 1 | 11 | 40 | 161 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 198 | 288 | 332 | 620 | 134 | 295 | 35 | 9 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 460 | 389 | 91 | 22 | 1 | 14 | 55 | 130 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 234 | 345 | 404 | 749 | 170 | 312 | 28 | 12 | 335 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 29 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 160 | 222 | 200 | 422 | 40 | 211 | 21 | 7 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA RAW | Harrisburg Senators | — | 29 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 167 | 259 | 208 | 468 | 42 | 211 | 17 | 10 | 210 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | INTL MLE | Gigantes de Carolina | — | 23 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 182 | 100 | 282 | 125 | 17 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 25 | INTL RAW | Gigantes de Carolina | — | 23 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 182 | 100 | 282 | 125 | 17 | 9 | 139 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 80 | 69 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 188 | 300 | 362 | 662 | 174 | 216 | 20 | 10 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ RAW | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 80 | 65 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 231 | 375 | 431 | 806 | 200 | 255 | 15 | 15 | 364 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 113 | 102 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 255 | 324 | 284 | 609 | 29 | 289 | 12 | 8 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 93 | 85 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 200 | 278 | 247 | 525 | 47 | 225 | 18 | 8 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 510 | 461 | 93 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 34 | 107 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 202 | 278 | 258 | 537 | 56 | 247 | 21 | 7 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 417 | 385 | 96 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 100 | 5 | 21 | 13 | 249 | 305 | 335 | 640 | 86 | 320 | 24 | 6 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 460 | 406 | 80 | 19 | 1 | 11 | 40 | 161 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 197 | 288 | 330 | 618 | 133 | 288 | 35 | 9 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 29 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 148 | 222 | 185 | 407 | 37 | 197 | 21 | 7 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 80 | 69 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 188 | 300 | 362 | 662 | 174 | 209 | 20 | 10 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2025 | 26 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 80 | 69 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 188 | 300 | 362 | 662 | 174 | 209 | 20 | 10 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIN | 0% | 200 | 178 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 51 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 216 | 295 | 336 | 631 | 120 | 280 | 26 | 8 | 285 | 79 | -5 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +4 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIN | 22% | 120 | 107 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 215 | 293 | 333 | 627 | 119 | 279 | 26 | 8 | 284 | 78 | -3 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIN | 22% | 26 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 215 | 293 | 334 | 627 | 119 | 279 | 27 | 8 | 284 | 78 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 26 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 231 | 208 | 439 | 42 | 235 | 27 | 8 | 284 | 62 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 600 | 100 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 175 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 167 | 231 | 208 | 439 | 42 | 235 | 27 | 8 | 284 | 62 | -17 | +5 | -8 | -4 | +14 | -1.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1929 | 1713 | 370 | 61 | 9 | 25 | 143 | 477 | 34 | 65 | 36 | 216 | 289 | 306 | 595 | 90 | 282 | 25 | 7 | 260 | 62 | -5 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +4 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 577 | 125 | 21 | 3 | 8 | 48 | 161 | 11 | 22 | 12 | 217 | 289 | 305 | 594 | 88 | 284 | 25 | 7 | 260 | 62 | -17 | +1 | -4 | -4 | +14 | -1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 80 PAwOBA .355 → .278 (−77)K% 15.0% → 19.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.00% | ÷0.979 | ×1.270 | — | — | 19.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.968 | 10.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.75% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.968 | 2.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.21% | ÷0.990 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | ×0.968 | 11.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.43% | ÷1.088 | ×0.810 | ×0.999 | ×0.968 | 6.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.89% | ÷0.943 | ×0.850 | ×0.999 | ×0.968 | 1.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.77% | ÷0.962 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 3.04% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 98, 2B 118, 3B 89, K 96, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .355 → .278; ISO .200 → .159; BABIP .255 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAHarrisburg Senators · 29 PAwOBA .205 → .186 (−19)K% 17.2% → 20.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.24% | ÷1.005 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.34% | ÷1.016 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 7.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.79% | ÷1.013 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.012 | 15.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.033 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 4.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.935 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.115 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 103, 2B 107, 3B 87, K 101, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .205 → .186; ISO .042 → .039; BABIP .211 → .197. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAHarrisburg Senators · 379 PAwOBA .328 → .276 (−52)K% 29.3% → 35.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.29% | ÷0.996 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.66% | ÷0.980 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 9.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.37% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 2.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.77% | ÷1.016 | ×0.970 | ×0.983 | ×1.027 | 20.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷0.936 | ×0.860 | ×0.983 | ×1.027 | 8.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.48% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.983 | ×1.027 | 0.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.31% | ÷0.979 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 4.35% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 103, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .328 → .276; ISO .167 → .138; BABIP .313 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 81 PAwOBA .333 → .255 (−78)K% 23.5% → 30.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.46% | ÷0.998 | ×1.310 | — | — | 30.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.64% | ÷0.963 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 5.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.47% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 1.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.15% | ÷0.990 | ×0.870 | ×0.992 | ×0.998 | 18.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.974 | ×0.780 | ×0.992 | ×0.998 | 6.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.992 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.77% | ÷1.114 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 4.55% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 98, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 100, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .333 → .255; ISO .183 → .139; BABIP .306 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 417 PAwOBA .330 → .283 (−46)K% 17.3% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.27% | ÷0.965 | ×1.350 | — | — | 24.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.91% | ÷0.984 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 5.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 0.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.00% | ÷0.997 | ×0.910 | ×1.001 | ×1.012 | 26.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.67% | ÷0.916 | ×0.830 | ×1.001 | ×1.012 | 3.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.67% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×1.001 | ×1.012 | 1.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.00% | ÷0.906 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 1.85% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 93, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .330 → .283; ISO .105 → .093; BABIP .347 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AHagerstown Suns · 510 PAwOBA .291 → .236 (−55)K% 14.7% → 21.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.71% | ÷0.940 | ×1.340 | — | — | 20.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.61% | ÷0.982 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.030 | 6.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.96% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.030 | 1.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.46% | ÷1.038 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 20.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.59% | ÷1.063 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 4.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.28% | ÷0.998 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 0.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.84% | ÷0.976 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.030 | 0.73% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 108, 2B 113, 3B 100, K 88, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .291 → .236; ISO .072 → .058; BABIP .292 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ROKGCL Nationals · 93 PAwOBA .288 → .225 (−63)K% 12.9% → 18.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.90% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 18.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 7.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.08% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.008 | ×1.008 | 21.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.008 | ×1.008 | 1.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.008 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 1.19% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .288 → .225; ISO .051 → .041; BABIP .273 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ROKGCL Nationals · 113 PAwOBA .352 → .279 (−74)K% 8.8% → 12.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 8.85% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 12.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.39% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 7.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.88% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.40% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.994 | ×1.022 | 26.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.994 | ×1.022 | 3.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.994 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .352 → .279; ISO .042 → .032; BABIP .352 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .