Justin Connell — OGILVIE

Justin ConnellOF Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 27 R/R 5'11" / 185 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 136 proj PA

wRC+†76

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .287 / .327

PA12

HR0

K%26

BB%8

ISO116

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	18	ROK	GCL Nationals	—	113	96	31	4	0	0	14	10	1	5	2	323	414	365	779	42	352	9	12	355	126	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2018	19	ROK	GCL Nationals	—	93	78	19	1	0	1	11	12	1	7	2	244	344	295	639	51	273	13	12	292	84	-2	+1	—	—	+2	0.1
2019	20	A	Hagerstown Suns	—	510	433	108	20	1	3	49	75	10	13	10	249	339	321	660	72	292	15	10	296	87	-8	-1	—	—	+11	0.2
2021	22	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	417	372	109	11	5	6	33	72	5	21	13	293	359	398	756	105	347	17	8	336	114	+7	-1	—	—	+9	1.5
2022	23	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	379	318	73	18	1	11	48	111	9	8	5	230	347	396	743	167	313	29	13	334	112	+6	-0	—	—	+8	1.4
2022	23	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	81	71	18	4	0	3	7	19	2	2	1	254	338	437	774	183	306	23	9	342	117	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.4
2023	24	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	29	24	4	1	0	0	3	5	0	0	1	167	259	208	468	42	211	17	10	210	28	-2	-0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2024	25	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	23	20	2	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	100	182	100	282		125	17	9	139	-20	-3	+0	—	—	+0	-0.3
2025	26	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	80	65	15	5	1	2	12	12	3	4	0	231	375	431	806	200	255	15	15	364	132	+3	+1	—	—	+2	0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	18	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	113	101	26	3	0	0	9	14	1	5	2	257	324	287	611	30	283	12	8	273	71	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2018	19	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	93	82	17	1	0	1	7	17	1	7	2	207	278	256	534	49	223	18	8	223	37	-7	+1	—	—	+2	-0.4
2019	20	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	510	449	91	15	1	3	33	107	10	13	10	203	272	261	533	58	240	21	6	230	42	-35	-1	—	—	+11	-2.6
2021	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	417	381	95	10	4	5	24	100	5	21	13	249	302	336	638	87	316	24	6	280	76	-12	-1	—	—	+9	-0.4
2022	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	379	332	64	16	1	9	34	136	9	8	5	193	285	328	614	136	281	36	9	267	67	-15	-0	—	—	+8	-0.7
2022	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	81	73	15	3	0	2	5	26	2	2	1	205	275	329	604	123	271	32	6	259	61	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2
2023	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	29	25	4	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	1	160	222	200	422	40	191	21	7	181	9	-3	-0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2025	26	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	80	68	13	4	1	2	9	17	3	4	0	191	312	368	680	176	217	21	11	284	78	-2	+1	—	—	+2	0.0
2017	18	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	113	101	26	3	0	0	9	14	1	5	2	257	324	287	611	30	292	12	8	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	GCL Nationals	—	113	96	31	4	0	0	14	10	1	5	2	323	414	365	779	42	352	9	12	355	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	93	82	17	1	0	1	7	17	1	7	2	207	278	256	534	49	246	18	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	GCL Nationals	—	93	78	19	1	0	1	11	12	1	7	2	244	344	295	639	51	273	13	12	292	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	510	449	91	15	1	3	33	107	10	13	10	203	272	261	533	58	257	21	6	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A RAW	Hagerstown Suns	—	510	433	108	20	1	3	49	75	10	13	10	249	339	321	660	72	292	15	10	296	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	417	381	95	10	4	5	24	100	5	21	13	249	302	336	638	87	323	24	6	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	417	372	109	11	5	6	33	72	5	21	13	293	359	398	756	105	347	17	8	336	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	460	405	79	19	1	11	39	162	11	10	6	195	284	328	612	133	291	35	8	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	460	389	91	22	1	14	55	130	11	10	6	234	345	404	749	170	312	28	12	335	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	29	25	4	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	1	160	222	200	422	40	211	21	7	181	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	—	29	24	4	1	0	0	3	5	0	0	1	167	259	208	468	42	211	17	10	210	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	INTL MLE	Gigantes de Carolina	—	23	20	2	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	100	182	100	282		125	17	9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	INTL RAW	Gigantes de Carolina	—	23	20	2	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	100	182	100	282		125	17	9	139	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	80	68	13	4	1	2	9	17	3	4	0	191	312	368	680	176	224	21	11	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	80	65	15	5	1	2	12	12	3	4	0	231	375	431	806	200	255	15	15	364	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	113	102	26	3	0	0	9	14	1	5	2	255	324	284	609	29	283	12	8	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	93	85	17	1	0	1	7	17	1	7	2	200	278	247	525	47	223	18	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	510	462	91	15	1	3	33	107	10	13	10	197	272	253	526	56	240	21	6	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	417	385	95	10	4	5	24	100	5	21	13	247	302	332	635	86	316	24	6	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	460	407	79	19	1	11	39	162	11	10	6	194	284	327	610	133	279	35	8	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	29	27	4	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	1	148	222	185	407	37	191	21	7	181	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	80	68	13	4	1	2	9	17	3	4	0	191	312	368	680	176	217	21	11	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	29	27	4	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	1	148	222	185	407	37	191	21	7	181	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	80	68	13	4	1	2	9	17	3	4	0	191	312	368	680	176	217	21	11	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	27	MLB MLE	MIN	0%	12	11	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	182	250	182	432		280	25	8	280	76	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	MIN	26%	207	185	40	8	1	4	17	54	3	6	2	216	293	335	628	119	280	26	8	284	78	-5	+0	-1	-1	+4	-0.2
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIN	37%	262	235	51	10	2	5	22	68	3	8	2	217	292	340	633	123	280	26	8	285	79	-7	+1	-1	-2	+6	-0.3
2027	28	MLB CTX	MIN	26%	54	49	10	2	0	1	4	14	1	2	0	204	278	306	584	102	281	26	7	274	78	-1	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIN	37%	96	87	19	4	1	2	8	25	1	3	1	218	292	356	648	138	281	26	8	276	79	-2	+0	-1	-1	+2	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	150	136	29	6	1	3	12	39	2	5	1	213	287	338	625	125	277	26	8	275	62	-4	+1	-1	-1	+3	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	125	26	4	13	52	169	9	22	4	212	286	336	622	124	275	26	8	275	62	-16	+3	-3	-4	+14	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	2206	1962	420	71	10	31	165	552	37	74	38	214	287	308	595	94	279	25	7	260	62	-12	+1	-2	-3	+10	-0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	124	21	3	9	49	163	11	22	11	215	288	308	596	93	280	25	8	260	62	-17	+2	-3	-4	+14	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Justin Connell (OGILVIE)	27	—	—	—	—	212/287/327	115	280	2	4	26%	8%	76	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jimmy Herron 2022 · AA	26	41→45	40→45	50→55	47	201/274/294	93	268	7	15	27%	8%	63	-1.4	221/296/354	133	273	14	21	24%	8%	85	+0.2	219/295/351	133	265	15	24	23%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Willie Argo 2017 · AA	27	44→38	39→40	52→55	47	208/289/293	85	288	7	17	28%	9%	68	-1.0	199/255/330	131	304	14	14	37%	6%	64	-1.3	163/220/293	131	245	14	17	39%	6%	42	-1.5
✕Cody Strait 2010 · AA	27	45→48	44→50	51→55	41	224/268/347	123	288	11	16	26%	5%	72	-0.7	215/265/314	99	284	7	16	25%	6%	63	-1.3	171/221/244	73	232	0	24	25%	4%	28	-1.0
✕Reid Gorecki 2008 · AAA	27	42→51	44→50	48→55	45	208/271/329	120	268	12	18	26%	8%	70	-0.9	238/293/355	117	300	11	20	23%	7%	83	+0.1	238/294/352	114	300	9	21	23%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Mitch Longo 2021 · AA	26	45→44	42→45	52→50	42	217/267/324	106	281	8	13	25%	6%	66	-1.1	225/272/362	137	292	15	18	27%	5%	77	-0.3	222/266/365	143	283	17	22	27%	5%	73	-0.3
✕Cory Vaughn 2015 · AAA	26	38→42	44→45	54→50	42	193/265/307	114	268	12	15	32%	7%	63	-1.4	194/259/303	109	286	10	12	34%	7%	59	-1.6	153/220/251	99	233	9	9	37%	7%	30	-1.4
✕David Thompson 2021 · AAA	27	40→48	42→45	50	41	199/258/307	108	258	10	13	26%	6%	60	-1.6	207/279/354	147	283	16	16	32%	6%	80	-0.2	169/253/329	160	225	20	20	34%	6%	61	-0.6
✕Quincy Latimore 2015 · AA	26	44→43	45→50	47→50	42	221/274/339	118	284	13	13	27%	6%	72	-0.7	211/261/343	132	277	15	8	28%	6%	69	-0.9	201/250/331	131	262	15	5	29%	6%	59	-1.3
✕Ryan Cordell 2019 · MLB	27	40→43	45→50	51→50	38	203/247/328	125	267	13	14	29%	5%	60	-1.6	205/262/334	129	292	15	12	33%	6%	68	-1.0	183/249/317	134	267	18	12	37%	7%	58	-0.8
✕Nick Podkul 2022 · AA	25	39	44→50	51→50	46	195/270/310	115	258	11	11	28%	8%	65	-1.2	209/297/348	139	287	16	6	31%	9%	84	+0.2	201/298/342	142	277	17	3	32%	10%	80	-0.1
✕Kristopher Negrón 2013 · AAA	27	40→50	41→45	56→55	39	200/251/299	99	263	9	20	27%	5%	55	-2.0	206/259/303	97	281	8	16	28%	5%	59	-1.7	226/289/352	126	323	14	14	32%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Ronnie Dawson 2022 · AAA	27	43→48	43→45	47→55	44	210/278/322	112	284	10	16	29%	7%	71	-0.8	219/284/323	104	306	9	14	30%	7%	73	-0.6	207/274/297	90	299	8	13	31%	6%	61	-1.1
✕Joe Benson 2015 · AAA	27	44→50	43→55	52→50	43	213/279/329	116	285	10	13	28%	7%	72	-0.7	222/293/327	105	287	8	13	24%	7%	78	-0.3	211/289/299	87	273	5	15	22%	8%	67	-0.6
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2021 · AAA	25	39→38	45→50	53→55	44	198/278/323	125	278	13	16	32%	8%	72	-0.7	198/274/306	108	267	10	16	28%	8%	65	-1.2	157/242/244	87	210	7	20	27%	8%	37	-1.4
✕Michael O'Neill 2019 · AAA	27	44→43	43→45	55	37	214/265/327	112	304	11	22	32%	5%	66	-1.1	223/272/313	90	327	9	18	32%	6%	65	-1.2	228/272/285	57	341	6	18	33%	5%	54	-1.3
✕Jason Romano 2005 · MLB	26	42	44→45	53→50	44	212/267/323	112	267	12	15	25%	7%	66	-1.1	232/282/350	118	283	11	9	21%	6%	78	-0.3	255/296/373	118	310	9	9	20%	5%	86	+0.1
✕Matt Lipka 2019 · AAA	27	42→52	41→45	55→60	43	206/262/306	100	264	8	21	24%	6%	60	-1.6	223/273/328	105	301	8	25	27%	5%	69	-0.9	225/277/325	100	321	8	40	31%	5%	66	-0.6
✕Daz Cameron 2023 · MLB	26	42→45	44→50	55	40	208/267/329	122	292	11	20	32%	6%	68	-1.0	216/283/359	143	283	16	22	28%	7%	82	-0.0	225/296/393	168	284	19	27	27%	8%	91	+0.3
✕Tony Thomas 2013 · AAA	27	40→46	45→50	57→55	39	201/250/325	124	271	12	19	30%	5%	60	-1.6	202/247/330	128	288	11	14	32%	5%	60	-1.6	198/241/328	130	285	10	12	33%	4%	55	-1.5
✕Isaac Ballou 2017 · AAA	27	47→48	41→45	53→50	45	224/281/327	103	284	7	12	23%	7%	72	-0.7	213/273/315	102	300	8	10	30%	7%	66	-1.1	164/232/257	92	260	7	6	37%	8%	36	-0.8