Justin Connell — OGILVIE

Justin ConnellOF Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 27 R/R 5'11" / 185 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 136 proj PA

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.211 / .285 / .325

PA136

HR2

K%27

BB%8

ISO116

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	18	ROK	GCL Nationals	—	113	101	26	3	0	0	9	14	1	5	2	257	324	287	611	30	292	12	8	273	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK	GCL Nationals	—	113	96	31	4	0	0	14	10	1	5	2	323	414	365	779	42	352	9	12	355	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK	GCL Nationals	—	93	82	17	1	0	1	7	17	1	7	2	207	278	256	534	49	246	18	8	223	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK	GCL Nationals	—	93	78	19	1	0	1	11	12	1	7	2	244	344	295	639	51	273	13	12	292	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A	Hagerstown Suns	—	510	448	86	14	1	3	34	114	10	13	10	192	264	248	512	56	248	22	7	221	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A	Hagerstown Suns	—	510	433	108	20	1	3	49	75	10	13	10	249	339	321	660	72	292	15	10	296	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	417	381	97	10	5	6	24	104	5	21	13	255	307	354	662	100	332	25	6	286	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	417	372	109	11	5	6	33	72	5	21	13	293	359	398	756	105	347	17	8	336	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA	2 teams	—	460	404	78	20	1	12	40	170	11	10	6	193	284	337	620	144	295	37	9	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA	2 teams	—	460	389	91	22	1	14	55	130	11	10	6	234	345	404	749	170	312	28	12	335	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	29	25	4	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	1	160	222	200	422	40	211	21	7	176	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	29	24	4	1	0	0	3	5	0	0	1	167	259	208	468	42	211	17	10	210	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	23	20	2	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	100	182	100	282		125	17	9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	23	20	2	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	100	182	100	282		125	17	9	139	-35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	80	68	12	3	1	2	9	17	3	4	0	176	300	338	638	162	204	21	11	283	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	80	65	15	5	1	2	12	12	3	4	0	231	375	431	806	200	255	15	15	364	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	MIN	—	136	122	25	5	1	2	11	36	2	3	1	205	281	311	593	107	280	26	8	279	71	-4	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	MIN	26%	207	185	40	8	1	4	17	55	3	4	1	216	293	335	628	119	281	27	8	282	74	-6	+0	-1	-1	+6	-0.2
2028	29	MLB	MIN	37%	262	235	51	10	2	5	22	69	3	5	1	217	292	340	633	123	281	26	8	283	75	-7	+1	-1	-2	+7	-0.2
2027	28	MLB	MIN	26%	54	49	10	2	0	1	4	14	1	1	0	204	278	306	584	102	281	26	7	273	67	-2	+0	-0	-0	+2	-0.1
2028	29	MLB	MIN	37%	96	87	19	4	1	2	8	25	1	2	0	218	292	356	648	138	281	26	8	274	68	-3	+0	-1	-1	+3	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	150	136	29	6	1	3	12	39	2	3	0	213	287	338	625	125	277	26	8	274	68	-5	+1	-1	-1	+4	-0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	589	125	26	4	13	52	169	9	13	0	212	286	336	622	124	275	26	8	274	68	-24	+3	-3	-4	+18	-1.0
Career	—			—	2330	2071	438	75	12	35	177	606	39	72	37	211	286	310	596	99	279	26	8	260	57	-113	-0	-2	-14	+66	-6.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	122	21	3	10	49	169	11	20	10	211	285	310	595	99	278	26	8	260	57	-32	+0	-1	-4	+18	-1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	18	ROK	GCL Nationals	—	113	96	31	4	0	0	14	10	1	5	2	323	414	365	779	42	352	9	12	355	130	+4	+0	—	—	+3	0.7
2018	19	ROK	GCL Nationals	—	93	78	19	1	0	1	11	12	1	7	2	244	344	295	639	51	273	13	12	292	82	-2	+1	—	—	+3	0.1
2019	20	A	Hagerstown Suns	—	510	433	108	20	1	3	49	75	10	13	10	249	339	321	660	72	292	15	10	296	85	-9	-1	—	—	+14	0.4
2021	22	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	417	372	109	11	5	6	33	72	5	21	13	293	359	398	756	105	347	17	8	336	115	+7	-1	—	—	+12	1.8
2022	23	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	379	318	73	18	1	11	48	111	9	8	5	230	347	396	743	167	313	29	13	334	114	+6	-0	—	—	+11	1.7
2022	23	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	81	71	18	4	0	3	7	19	2	2	1	254	338	437	774	183	306	23	9	342	120	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.4
2023	24	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	29	24	4	1	0	0	3	5	0	0	1	167	259	208	468	42	211	17	10	210	19	-3	-0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2024	25	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	23	20	2	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	100	182	100	282		125	17	9	139	-35	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2025	26	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	80	65	15	5	1	2	12	12	3	4	0	231	375	431	806	200	255	15	15	364	137	+3	+1	—	—	+2	0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Justin Connell (OGILVIE)	27	—	—	—	—	211/285/325	115	280	2	3	27%	8%	71	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Adam Engel 2019 · MLB	27	43→48	43→50	53→60	39	209/264/326	116	289	10	19	30%	5%	62	-0.9	229/286/370	141	303	14	17	28%	5%	82	+0.5	221/280/353	132	298	13	23	29%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Alex De Goti 2022 · AAA	27	43→47	43→45	51→50	44	212/275/327	115	284	10	8	28%	7%	66	-0.6	204/281/300	96	277	8	10	27%	9%	63	-0.9	195/278/275	80	264	6	10	26%	9%	52	-0.9
✕Barrett Barnes 2017 · AA	26	46→48	44→45	49→50	43	225/287/350	125	297	11	12	27%	7%	78	+0.2	223/297/350	127	309	12	9	30%	7%	82	+0.5	203/302/343	140	276	15	5	30%	9%	82	+0.2
✕Jason Romano 2005 · MLB	26	42	44→45	53→50	44	212/267/323	112	268	12	15	26%	7%	62	-0.9	232/282/350	118	283	11	9	21%	6%	75	-0.0	255/296/373	118	310	9	9	20%	5%	84	+0.3
✕Juan Carlos Perez 2014 · MLB	27	48→53	43→50	51→55	39	235/269/352	117	293	10	18	24%	4%	69	-0.4	231/267/357	126	286	11	17	23%	4%	71	-0.3	235/279/360	125	296	10	19	23%	5%	74	-0.0
✕Jimmy Herron 2022 · AA	26	40→45	39→45	50→55	47	194/272/281	87	265	6	15	28%	9%	54	-1.4	216/292/348	132	270	14	21	25%	8%	80	+0.4	212/289/340	128	261	15	24	24%	8%	74	-0.1
✕Adam Fox 2009 · AAA	27	43→44	44→50	50→45	43	216/267/332	116	267	12	8	24%	6%	64	-0.8	207/254/344	137	259	16	9	26%	5%	62	-0.9	194/237/339	145	237	18	7	27%	4%	50	-0.8
✕Willie Argo 2017 · AA	27	44→38	40	52→55	48	210/293/296	86	292	7	17	29%	9%	67	-0.5	198/255/335	137	308	15	14	39%	6%	61	-1.0	159/218/296	137	243	16	17	41%	6%	35	-1.4
✕David Thompson 2021 · AAA	27	40→48	44→45	50	42	201/261/318	117	257	11	13	26%	6%	59	-1.1	210/280/367	157	289	18	16	33%	6%	80	+0.4	173/256/351	178	230	22	20	35%	6%	63	-0.4
✕Taylor Featherston 2017 · MLB	27	40→45	47→55	49→50	38	209/252/347	138	263	15	11	27%	4%	63	-0.9	188/244/311	123	286	14	11	38%	5%	50	-1.7	162/223/280	118	275	15	10	45%	5%	31	-1.9
✕J.J. Davis 2005 · MLB	26	45	45→50	50→45	48	222/293/343	122	286	13	13	27%	9%	79	+0.3	225/287/382	157	305	20	11	32%	7%	86	+0.8	205/264/359	154	277	22	9	34%	6%	69	-0.2
✕Damian Rolls 2005 · MLB	27	47→52	41→45	47→55	44	230/285/330	100	287	8	13	22%	6%	71	-0.3	215/279/322	107	281	10	12	26%	7%	67	-0.5	226/290/298	73	316	5	20	28%	7%	64	-0.1
✕Kramer Robertson 2022 · AAA	27	43→51	46→45	51→55	49	216/295/344	127	267	13	13	24%	8%	80	+0.4	202/300/294	92	268	9	22	26%	10%	70	-0.3	184/296/254	71	251	7	26	26%	10%	56	-1.1
✕Davis Stoneburner 2012 · AA	27	47→49	44→45	52→50	41	232/285/355	123	296	11	14	25%	5%	78	+0.2	202/259/290	88	277	5	15	27%	6%	50	-1.8	158/216/212	54	229	0	17	29%	5%	8	-2.7
✕Jeff McVaney 2017 · AAA	27	48→50	41→45	50	47	228/296/331	103	277	7	14	20%	7%	76	+0.1	217/284/321	104	271	8	11	22%	6%	69	-0.4	178/244/259	81	232	5	6	24%	5%	33	-1.0
✕Stevie Berman 2022 · AA	27	41	42→50	49→40	49	203/284/306	102	254	10	6	23%	8%	66	-0.6	210/295/336	126	275	13	5	27%	9%	79	+0.3	195/291/323	129	254	15	1	28%	10%	72	-0.1
✕Jerad Head 2010 · AA	27	45→46	45→55	50	40	223/281/352	129	283	11	11	25%	5%	76	+0.0	229/278/387	158	284	18	7	26%	4%	84	+0.6	221/273/386	164	270	20	7	26%	4%	79	+0.2
✕Danny Worth 2012 · MLB	26	46→52	42→45	52→50	43	225/277/332	106	293	9	16	26%	6%	68	-0.5	208/271/306	98	297	7	15	30%	7%	59	-1.1	221/288/315	95	324	7	9	32%	8%	66	-0.4
✕Joe DeCarlo 2021 · AA	27	42→37	44→55	47→30	39	204/270/318	113	301	11	5	34%	7%	63	-0.9	201/258/295	94	304	9	7	35%	7%	51	-1.7	159/216/216	58	242	7	0	36%	6%	10	-1.4
✕Cody Strait 2010 · AA	27	45→48	45→55	51→55	40	223/267/349	126	289	12	16	27%	5%	68	-0.5	214/264/315	101	290	7	16	27%	6%	58	-1.2	168/218/245	77	239	0	24	28%	4%	17	-1.0