Grif Hughes

P Fresno Grizzlies

Age 25 LHP 6'4" / 225 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX2 levels	11	0	25	5.84	4.60	20.2%	12.8%	—	K 14.2% · BB 15.5% · FIP 5.40
2026	24	MIX3 levels	23	6	70	3.20	3.54	26.3%	6.4%	—	K 19.1% · BB 7.5% · FIP 4.85
2027PROJ	25	MLBCOL	37	0	39	4.77	4.77	19.0%	8.8%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBCOL	26	0	27	4.69	4.68	19.9%	8.8%	-0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCOL	37	0	39	4.68	4.69	20.2%	8.9%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsWesley Wright (age 25) · Luis Perez (age 26) · Pedro Feliciano (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%19.0%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP39

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	25	109	22	14	3	0%	2.2	14.2%	15.5%	-1.4%	2.8%	5.84	5.40	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	25	109	22	14	3	0%	2.2	14.2%	15.5%	-1.4%	2.8%	5.84	5.40	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	0	25	109	22	14	3	0%	2.2	20.2%	12.8%	7.3%	2.8%	5.84	4.60	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	6	70	297	78	19	10	26%	3.1	19.1%	7.5%	11.6%	4.4%	3.20	4.85	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	6	70	297	78	19	10	26%	3.1	19.1%	7.5%	11.6%	4.4%	3.20	4.85	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	6	70	297	78	19	10	26%	3.1	26.3%	6.4%	19.9%	3.4%	3.20	3.54	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	COL	37	0	39	165	31	15	5	0%	1.1	19.0%	8.8%	10.2%	3.2%	4.77	4.77	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	COL	60	0	63	267	53	24	9	0%	1.1	19.9%	8.8%	11.1%	3.2%	4.69	4.68	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	COL	59	0	62	263	53	24	9	0%	1.1	20.2%	8.9%	11.2%	3.2%	4.68	4.69	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	COL	26	0	27	114	23	10	4	0%	1.0	19.9%	8.8%	11.1%	3.2%	4.69	4.68	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	COL	37	0	39	165	33	15	5	0%	1.1	20.2%	8.9%	11.2%	3.2%	4.68	4.69	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	0	66	280	56	25	9	0%	1.1	20.1%	8.9%	11.2%	3.2%	4.68	4.30	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	169	76	27	0%	1.1	20.1%	8.9%	11.2%	3.2%	4.68	4.30	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		34	6	95	406	72	39	16	18%	2.8	17.8%	9.7%	8.1%	4.0%	3.88	5.00	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	13	200	855	152	83	34	18%	2.8	17.8%	9.7%	8.1%	4.0%	3.88	5.00	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grif Hughes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	19.0%	8.8%	3.2%	—	4.68	20.1%	11.2%	126	-0.09	—	—	—
Wesley Wright L 2010 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	19.6%	8.8%	4.2%	.310	3.38	23.9%	16.5%	106	-1.47	3.03	375	80
Luis Perez L 2011 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	18.4%	8.8%	3.1%	.317	3.32	22.3%	13.2%	42	-1.03	3.32	173	80
Pedro Feliciano L 2003 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.7%	8.3%	2.3%	.309	3.52	20.2%	11.1%	79	-0.22	2.69	378	80
Eric Jokisch L 2014 · 5.18 FIP	25	SW	5.18	15.2%	6.1%	4.7%	.306	4.28	12.8%	4.9%	264	-0.90	3.78	427	77
Harry Gustin L 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SU	3.91	20.7%	11.0%	2.1%	.331	4.33	22.9%	12.7%	109	+0.42	3.70	152	77
Nick Maronde L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	18.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.359	3.62	16.3%	8.9%	48	-0.23	3.62	133	77
Jake Kalish L 2016 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	17.8%	6.9%	2.6%	.231	3.90	17.0%	11.9%	352	+0.01	2.68	740	77
Brad Mills L 2010 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	18.4%	12.2%	2.0%	.273	5.37	19.8%	7.7%	18	+1.15	4.22	243	76
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	76
Paul Fry L 2017 · 4.66 FIP	25	SU	4.66	21.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.338	3.43	24.6%	14.6%	159	-1.23	1.78	560	76
Jose Alvarez L 2013 · 5.02 FIP	24	SW	5.02	18.0%	8.7%	4.2%	.294	2.98	20.4%	14.8%	124	-2.04	2.78	414	76
Braulio Lara L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	16.7%	8.7%	2.1%	.367	5.20	18.9%	3.9%	67	+1.24	3.96	118	76
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	75
Charlie Furbush L 2011 · 4.95 FIP	25	SW	4.95	18.0%	7.5%	4.4%	.310	2.67	28.8%	21.4%	154	-2.28	2.40	261	75
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	74
Matt Crouse L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SW	3.99	12.0%	6.3%	2.0%	.276	4.40	12.2%	4.3%	268	+0.41	3.99	342	74
Mac Lardner L 2023 · 3.66 FIP	25	SU	3.66	17.5%	9.4%	1.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	186	74
Nick Dombkowski L 2024 · 4.92 FIP	25	SW	4.92	16.5%	10.9%	3.3%	.273	5.17	18.2%	10.6%	183	+0.25	3.71	425	74
Chris Narveson L 2009 · 4.01 FIP	27	SW	4.01	22.4%	7.3%	3.4%	.277	4.00	18.5%	10.0%	329	-0.01	4.00	625	73
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	19.8%	8.9%	1.25	4.70
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*