Nick Falter

P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 240 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	23	MIX2 levels	39	1	72	4.12	4.02	21.1%	8.6%	—	K 15.8% · BB 10.1% · FIP 5.04
2027PROJ	24	MLBSD	48	0	50	5.02	5.02	17.4%	9.9%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBSD	27	0	28	4.86	4.81	18.9%	9.5%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBSD	41	0	43	4.77	4.73	19.8%	9.4%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsColby Morris (age 24) · Kyle Whitten (age 24) · Dylan Simmons (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA5.02

FIP5.02

K%17.4%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%7.4%

Proj IP50

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	1	72	313	66	27	9	3%	1.8	15.8%	10.1%	5.8%	3.6%	4.12	5.04	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	1	72	313	66	27	9	3%	1.8	15.8%	10.1%	5.8%	3.6%	4.12	5.04	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	1	72	313	66	27	9	3%	1.8	21.1%	8.6%	12.5%	2.9%	4.12	4.02	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	SD	48	0	50	211	37	21	7	0%	1.0	17.4%	9.9%	7.4%	3.2%	5.02	5.02	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SD	62	0	66	277	52	26	9	0%	1.1	18.9%	9.5%	9.4%	3.1%	4.86	4.81	-0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	SD	62	0	66	277	55	26	9	0%	1.1	19.8%	9.4%	10.3%	3.1%	4.77	4.73	-0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	SD	62	0	65	273	54	26	9	0%	1.0	19.9%	9.5%	10.4%	3.2%	4.74	4.74	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	SD	27	0	28	118	22	11	4	0%	1.0	18.9%	9.5%	9.4%	3.1%	4.86	4.81	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	SD	41	0	43	182	36	17	6	0%	1.0	19.8%	9.4%	10.3%	3.1%	4.77	4.73	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	SD	48	0	50	211	42	20	7	0%	1.0	19.9%	9.5%	10.4%	3.2%	4.74	4.74	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		116	0	121	513	101	49	16	0%	1.0	19.6%	9.5%	10.2%	3.2%	4.78	4.37	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	166	81	26	0%	1.1	19.6%	9.5%	10.2%	3.2%	4.78	4.37	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		39	1	72	313	50	31	11	3%	1.8	15.8%	10.1%	5.8%	3.6%	4.12	5.04	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	3	200	869	138	87	32	3%	1.8	15.8%	10.1%	5.8%	3.6%	4.12	5.04	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Falter (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	17.4%	9.9%	3.2%	—	4.76	19.5%	10.1%	196	-0.26	—	—	—
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	90
Kyle Whitten R 2023 · 4.35 FIP	24	SU	4.35	18.0%	9.5%	2.9%	.296	5.14	18.0%	8.1%	37	+0.79	4.32	152	90
Dylan Simmons R 2024 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	17.8%	9.4%	1.9%	.295	5.10	12.7%	0.6%	74	+1.25	3.85	125	89
Rob Griswold R 2022 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	16.8%	8.3%	3.2%	.244	4.34	12.5%	6.2%	144	-0.13	3.57	203	89
Josh Uhen R 2016 · 4.09 FIP	24	SU	4.09	16.1%	9.7%	2.0%	.303	4.02	15.6%	1.2%	82	-0.07	3.17	185	89
Brian Glowicki R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	16.4%	8.3%	3.0%	.275	3.92	26.0%	14.1%	62	-0.49	2.31	189	89
Brett McKinney R 2015 · 4.79 FIP	24	SU	4.79	17.1%	8.9%	3.6%	.335	4.02	18.1%	8.5%	129	-0.77	3.43	183	88
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	88
Vinnie Chulk R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	17.7%	10.5%	2.4%	.308	3.95	16.9%	9.6%	171	-0.31	2.97	271	88
Pedro Echemendia R 2016 · 4.79 FIP	25	SU	4.79	15.0%	8.0%	3.5%	.286	4.31	11.0%	5.9%	72	-0.48	4.31	141	88
Bryan Pope R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	19.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.332	5.20	12.7%	-0.3%	22	+1.24	3.96	148	88
Alex Hermeling R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	16.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	127	88
James McDonald R 2009 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	19.3%	10.4%	2.1%	.283	4.16	20.4%	11.3%	414	+0.20	2.99	506	88
Stephen Villines R 2019 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	16.8%	8.5%	2.2%	.280	3.15	20.6%	14.7%	40	-0.81	2.14	156	87
Brady Choban R 2024 · 4.49 FIP	23	SU	4.49	16.1%	8.8%	3.0%	.262	4.02	13.3%	4.1%	80	-0.47	3.59	131	87
Garrett Apker R 2024 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	19.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.288	8.46	15.4%	-7.6%	11	+4.45	4.01	101	87
Jack Carey R 2024 · 5.32 FIP	24	SU	5.32	15.6%	11.3%	3.8%	.305	4.27	19.6%	5.3%	88	-1.05	3.79	250	87
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	87
Mick VanVossen R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	24	SU	4.25	18.6%	8.9%	2.9%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	141	87
Miguel Guerrero R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	23	SU	4.56	18.1%	10.3%	3.1%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	171	87

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	62	19.1%	9.6%	1.22	4.84
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*