Carson Fischer

P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.5 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	AWSH	2	0	2	0.00	0.10	50.0%	0.0%	—	K 50.0% · BB 0.0% · FIP -1.12
2026	23	MIX2 levels	25	23	125	2.53	2.88	16.9%	5.9%	—	K 12.7% · BB 6.8% · FIP 3.46
2027PROJ	24	MLBWSH	16	16	87	4.58	4.58	13.9%	7.0%	0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBWSH	8	8	49	4.46	4.39	16.2%	7.0%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBWSH	12	12	75	4.36	4.30	17.6%	7.0%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$1M+2

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsEnrique Gonzalez (age 24) · Connor Noland (age 24) · Brooks Hall (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%13.9%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%6.9%

Proj IP87

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	2	0	2	6	3	0	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	2	0	2	6	3	0	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2025	22	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	2	0	2	6	3	0	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.10	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	125	492	83	29	4	92%	5.0	12.7%	6.8%	5.8%	1.0%	2.53	3.46	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	125	492	83	29	4	92%	5.0	12.7%	6.8%	5.8%	1.0%	2.53	3.46	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	125	492	83	29	4	92%	5.0	16.9%	5.9%	11.0%	0.8%	2.53	2.88	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	WSH	16	16	87	367	51	26	9	100%	5.4	13.9%	7.0%	6.9%	2.5%	4.58	4.58	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	19	19	114	480	78	33	12	100%	6.0	16.2%	7.0%	9.2%	2.6%	4.46	4.39	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	19	19	114	480	85	34	12	100%	6.0	17.6%	7.0%	10.7%	2.6%	4.36	4.30	+0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	WSH	19	19	112	472	84	34	13	100%	5.9	17.8%	7.1%	10.8%	2.7%	4.34	4.33	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	WSH	18	18	108	458	82	33	13	100%	6.0	17.8%	7.3%	10.6%	2.8%	4.38	4.41	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	WSH	17	17	104	437	77	33	13	100%	6.1	17.6%	7.5%	10.1%	2.9%	4.48	4.54	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	97	411	71	32	13	100%	6.1	17.2%	7.8%	9.5%	3.1%	4.62	4.72	+0.2
2034	31	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	91	383	65	31	13	100%	6.1	16.8%	8.1%	8.7%	3.3%	4.80	4.92	-0.0
2035	32	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	84	355	58	30	13	100%	6.0	16.4%	8.5%	7.9%	3.6%	5.01	5.15	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	8	8	49	207	34	14	5	100%	6.1	16.2%	7.0%	9.2%	2.6%	4.46	4.39	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	75	317	56	22	8	100%	6.2	17.6%	7.0%	10.7%	2.6%	4.36	4.30	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	WSH	14	14	86	363	65	26	10	100%	6.1	17.8%	7.1%	10.8%	2.7%	4.34	4.33	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	WSH	15	15	91	384	69	28	11	100%	6.1	17.8%	7.3%	10.6%	2.8%	4.38	4.41	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	WSH	15	15	91	384	68	29	11	100%	6.1	17.6%	7.5%	10.1%	2.9%	4.48	4.54	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	WSH	15	15	88	372	64	29	12	100%	5.9	17.2%	7.8%	9.5%	3.1%	4.62	4.72	+0.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	WSH	14	14	83	350	59	28	12	100%	5.9	16.8%	8.1%	8.7%	3.3%	4.80	4.92	-0.0
2035	32	MLB CTX	WSH	13	13	78	329	54	28	12	100%	6.0	16.4%	8.5%	7.9%	3.6%	5.01	5.15	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		107	107	640	2704	467	204	80	100%	6.0	17.3%	7.6%	9.7%	3.0%	4.56	4.22	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	146	64	25	100%	6.0	17.3%	7.6%	9.7%	3.0%	4.56	4.22	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		27	23	127	498	65	34	5	85%	4.7	13.1%	6.8%	6.3%	1.0%	2.49	3.41	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	36	200	786	103	53	8	85%	4.7	13.1%	6.8%	6.3%	1.0%	2.49	3.41	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Fischer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	13.9%	7.0%	2.5%	—	4.34	17.2%	10.2%	339	-0.24	—	—	—
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	91
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.26	16.4%	8.7%	340	+0.28	3.95	448	88
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	87
Mason Erla R 2022 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	14.9%	6.0%	2.7%	.309	4.89	14.8%	5.2%	124	+0.78	3.11	206	87
Jake Brooks R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	13.6%	5.9%	2.2%	.251	3.93	14.7%	9.6%	275	+0.02	3.28	390	86
Braden Olthoff R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	12.5%	8.0%	2.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	108	86
Claudio Vargas R 2003 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP	4.75	12.6%	7.3%	3.2%	.251	5.02	16.5%	8.5%	418	+0.27	3.66	765	86
Hyrum Formo R 2015 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	10.5%	5.9%	2.3%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	107	85
Josh Banks R 2008 · 4.81 FIP	26	SP-	4.81	11.6%	7.3%	3.2%	.283	6.01	9.0%	6.0%	23	+1.20	4.81	108	85
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	85
Brannon Easterling R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	24	SP	4.38	11.2%	6.7%	2.5%	.293	3.95	12.9%	5.1%	252	-0.43	3.50	334	85
Javier Solano R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	25	SP	4.96	11.0%	6.2%	3.6%	.331	4.12	12.3%	7.3%	275	-0.84	3.67	506	84
Blaine Knight R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.263	4.63	16.2%	6.6%	159	+0.05	4.31	269	84
Jake Walters R 2019 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP	3.51	17.4%	9.2%	1.3%	.260	3.78	18.2%	7.6%	97	+0.27	3.51	261	84
Mike Thompson R 2006 · 4.95 FIP	25	SP	4.95	8.6%	6.4%	3.2%	.272	4.85	6.7%	0.0%	16	-0.10	4.85	108	84
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	84
DJ Baxendale R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	24	SP	3.79	14.5%	8.6%	1.5%	.316	3.06	17.2%	11.3%	259	-0.73	2.88	426	84
Jordan Pries R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP	4.29	14.0%	7.5%	2.6%	.307	4.43	17.4%	9.2%	131	+0.14	4.29	219	84
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	84
Derek Casey R 2019 · 5.30 FIP	23	SP	5.30	13.6%	8.5%	4.2%	.311	2.96	22.3%	13.2%	58	-2.34	2.96	180	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	101	16.9%	7.4%	1.11	4.54
Wayne Garland ('73-'81, 7 WAR*)	5.2	130	15.9%*	7.4%*	1.10*	4.38*
Dillon Gee ('17)	4.3	107	16.9%	7.3%	1.17	4.09
Gavin Floyd ('16)	6.2	104	18.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.37
Ray Washburn ('61-'70, 12 WAR*)	6.0	121	17.6%*	7.5%*	1.17*	4.17*
Bob Milacki ('88-'96, 5 WAR*)	4.0	114	15.2%*	8.4%*	1.26*	4.64*
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36