Kaden Hernandez — OGILVIE

Kaden HernandezSS DSL Padres Brown

Age 18 R/R 6'1" / 165 lbs ROK HR -7% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 75 proj PA

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .281 / .286

PA75

HR0

K%26

BB%7

ISO75

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$6M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.3	$6M	+$6M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.3	$6M	+$5M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+1.3	$5M	+$4M
2036	Arb-2	$4M	+1.2	$4M	+$3M
2037	Arb-3	$5M	+1.0	$3M	+$2M
Totals		$15M		$31M	+$26M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	82	73	7	2	0	0	6	20	3	0	0	96	195	123	318	27	132	24	7	152	-25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	82	69	9	2	0	0	10	15	3	0	0	130	268	159	428	29	167	18	12	221	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	18	MLB	SD	—	75	69	14	3	0	0	5	19	1	1	0	203	267	246	513	43	288	25	7	262	59	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	SD	34%	167	150	33	6	1	2	12	42	3	1	1	220	291	313	604	93	291	25	7	273	67	-6	-0	+0	+2	+5	0.0
2028	20	MLB	SD	48%	311	279	63	12	2	4	24	78	5	3	1	226	299	326	625	100	292	25	8	280	73	-10	+0	+0	+3	+9	0.3
2029	21	MLB	SD	54%	421	379	86	16	3	6	32	104	7	3	1	227	299	332	631	106	294	25	8	286	77	-11	+0	+0	+5	+12	0.6
2030	22	MLB	SD	57%	500	448	103	19	3	8	39	123	9	4	2	230	304	339	644	109	294	25	8	289	79	-12	+0	+0	+5	+14	0.8
2031	23	MLB	SD	58%	553	495	114	21	3	9	43	135	10	5	2	230	305	339	644	109	295	24	8	291	81	-12	+0	+0	+6	+16	1.0
2032	24	MLB	SD	57%	588	526	122	22	4	10	46	144	11	5	2	232	307	346	653	114	296	24	8	293	82	-12	+0	+0	+6	+17	1.2
2033	25	MLB	SD	57%	609	546	126	23	4	10	47	149	11	5	2	231	305	342	647	112	296	24	8	294	83	-12	+0	+0	+7	+17	1.3
2034	26	MLB	SD	57%	619	555	129	23	4	11	48	151	11	5	2	232	306	348	654	115	296	24	8	295	84	-11	+0	+0	+7	+18	1.3
2035	27	MLB	SD	55%	621	556	129	23	4	11	49	152	11	5	2	232	307	347	654	115	296	24	8	295	84	-11	+0	+0	+7	+18	1.3
2036	28	MLB	SD	55%	617	552	128	23	4	11	49	152	11	5	2	232	307	348	655	116	296	25	8	294	83	-12	+0	-1	+7	+17	1.2
2037	29	MLB	SD	53%	608	543	125	23	4	10	49	151	11	4	2	230	307	343	649	112	295	25	8	292	82	-13	+0	-1	+7	+17	1.0
2038	30	MLB	SD	53%	598	534	121	22	3	10	48	150	11	4	2	227	304	335	639	109	294	25	8	290	80	-14	+0	-2	+6	+17	0.8
2027	19	MLB	SD	34%	57	52	11	2	0	1	4	14	1	0	0	212	281	308	588	96	287	25	7	258	55	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	20	MLB	SD	48%	151	136	30	5	1	2	11	38	3	1	0	221	293	316	610	96	289	25	7	264	61	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2029	21	MLB	SD	54%	228	205	45	8	1	3	17	56	4	2	1	220	292	312	604	93	290	25	7	269	64	-9	+0	+0	+2	+6	-0.0
2030	22	MLB	SD	57%	283	254	57	10	2	4	22	70	5	2	1	224	299	327	626	102	291	25	8	273	67	-11	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.0
2031	23	MLB	SD	58%	318	284	65	12	2	5	25	78	6	3	1	229	305	338	643	109	292	25	8	275	68	-11	+0	+0	+3	+9	0.1
2032	24	MLB	SD	57%	335	300	68	12	2	5	26	82	6	3	1	227	301	330	631	103	293	24	8	276	70	-12	+0	+0	+4	+9	0.2
2033	25	MLB	SD	57%	345	309	71	13	2	6	27	84	6	3	1	230	304	343	647	113	293	24	8	277	70	-12	+0	+0	+4	+10	0.2
2034	26	MLB	SD	57%	350	314	72	13	2	6	27	85	6	3	1	229	303	341	643	111	293	24	8	278	71	-12	+0	+0	+4	+10	0.2
2035	27	MLB	SD	55%	345	309	71	13	2	6	27	84	6	3	1	230	304	343	647	113	292	24	8	278	71	-11	+0	+0	+4	+10	0.2
2036	28	MLB	SD	55%	339	303	69	12	2	6	27	83	6	3	1	228	304	340	644	112	292	24	8	277	70	-11	+0	-0	+4	+10	0.2
2037	29	MLB	SD	53%	325	290	66	12	2	5	26	81	6	2	1	228	304	334	639	107	292	25	8	276	69	-11	+0	-1	+3	+9	0.1
2038	30	MLB	SD	53%	315	281	63	11	2	5	25	79	6	2	1	224	301	331	632	107	291	25	8	273	67	-12	+0	-1	+3	+9	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3391	3037	688	123	20	54	264	834	61	27	10	227	301	334	635	107	292	25	8	275	68	-121	+1	-2	+36	+96	1.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	132	24	4	10	51	160	12	5	2	227	303	333	636	107	293	25	8	275	68	-23	+0	-0	+7	+18	0.2
Career	—			—	6369	5705	1300	238	39	102	497	1570	115	50	21	228	303	337	640	109	295	25	8	289	79	-150	+2	-4	+68	+180	9.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	132	24	4	10	51	160	12	5	2	227	302	333	636	107	294	25	8	289	79	-15	+0	-0	+7	+18	1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	82	69	9	2	0	0	10	15	3	0	0	130	268	159	428	29	167	18	12	221	27	-7	+0	—	—	+2	-0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#4Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	3,467	55	28	230	301	339	+37	+21	5.9	5.3
	/162	664	11	5	230	301	339	+7.1	+4.0	1.1	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kaden Hernandez (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	212/281/286	75	288	0	1	26%	7%	59	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ricardo Cova 2022 · A	18	44	38→50	47→55	44	212/278/287	75	273	6	9	24%	6%	57	-1.2	209/268/294	85	323	7	15	35%	6%	55	-1.4	235/286/365	130	286	14	20	22%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Raul Juarez 2016 · A	18	37	38→45	45→40	37	182/242/262	80	251	5	7	29%	4%	36	-2.7	207/265/290	83	274	7	5	26%	5%	53	-1.5	203/259/274	71	266	8	3	26%	4%	44	-0.5
✕Ronaldo Hernández 2016 · A	18	44	37→55	50→45	43	208/271/281	73	270	4	6	23%	6%	53	-1.5	241/286/357	116	275	12	5	17%	5%	79	+0.3	241/284/373	131	274	16	5	18%	5%	80	+0.2
✕Rodolfo Castro 2017 · A	18	43→40	38→55	48→50	43	202/265/291	89	290	5	5	30%	7%	53	-1.5	195/240/313	118	278	11	5	32%	5%	47	-1.9	205/272/358	153	266	19	11	30%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Hidekel Abreu 2016 · A	18	42	36→40	49→50	45	199/266/263	64	280	3	8	28%	8%	46	-2.0	223/284/304	81	293	5	10	24%	7%	63	-0.8	237/299/317	80	300	6	12	21%	8%	68	-0.2
✕Rodolfo Durán 2016 · A	18	39	36→55	45→40	37	189/231/257	68	267	3	6	30%	5%	29	-3.2	211/250/329	118	282	13	5	29%	5%	56	-1.3	225/266/386	161	276	19	3	26%	4%	75	-0.0
✕Victor Heredia 2018 · A	18	45	38→50	49→30	42	211/275/293	82	307	6	6	31%	7%	57	-1.2	221/268/323	102	290	9	4	26%	5%	62	-0.9	221/264/326	105	281	10	1	25%	4%	63	-0.3
✕Juan Uriarte 2017 · A	19	41	38→45	46→30	41	199/261/275	76	260	5	5	25%	5%	47	-1.9	210/260/302	92	278	8	4	26%	4%	53	-1.5	184/227/264	80	254	7	0	30%	3%	27	-1.0
✕Luis Torrens 2014 · A	18	42→47	36→55	49→30	45	196/262/257	61	277	3	5	29%	8%	43	-2.2	204/277/283	79	275	6	5	26%	8%	56	-1.3	231/286/395	164	298	21	0	29%	7%	87	+0.4
✕Andrés Nolaya 2023 · A	18	41	35→45	44→55	47	190/278/250	60	289	2	10	32%	10%	49	-1.8	189/258/257	68	296	3	15	34%	8%	41	-2.3	194/269/271	76	278	5	22	30%	7%	48	-0.6
✕Marco Guzman 2013 · A	18	37	35→45	47→50	47	176/257/242	66	244	2	8	26%	8%	38	-2.6	198/263/278	80	251	4	7	22%	8%	49	-1.8	227/264/332	105	291	6	8	23%	5%	60	-0.3
✕Bryan Andrade 2023 · A	18	40	35→45	49→45	44	191/257/246	55	259	2	5	26%	7%	38	-2.6	187/247/239	52	258	3	4	27%	6%	31	-3.0	187/256/263	76	248	7	5	26%	8%	40	-0.9
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→46	36→50	49→45	39	193/237/259	66	276	3	8	30%	5%	32	-3.0	204/249/275	71	283	5	10	28%	5%	41	-2.3	232/296/366	134	301	16	8	27%	6%	83	+0.3
✕Deivy Grullón 2014 · A	18	45→42	37→55	48→30	43	215/262/292	77	271	4	4	22%	6%	51	-1.7	208/248/305	97	282	9	2	28%	5%	49	-1.8	228/269/391	163	297	23	0	31%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Alixon Suarez 2012 · A	18	39	36→45	43→40	48	187/274/249	62	250	4	3	25%	8%	47	-1.9	195/268/275	80	256	5	4	24%	7%	51	-1.7	183/257/267	85	235	5	2	23%	7%	42	-0.7
✕Victor Rodrigues 2023 · A	18	41	38→30	49→50	44	197/261/279	83	254	5	7	24%	6%	49	-1.8	211/290/283	72	267	5	9	21%	9%	62	-0.9	219/316/271	52	272	4	10	19%	11%	68	-0.2
✕Yasmil Bucce 2023 · A	18	41	40→45	49→30	44	198/265/288	89	272	7	5	29%	7%	53	-1.5	202/288/300	98	309	8	4	34%	10%	66	-0.6	205/306/334	128	325	13	2	37%	11%	79	+0.2
✕Abrahan Gutierrez 2018 · A	18	43→45	37→40	48→40	42	207/251/284	76	266	4	4	23%	5%	44	-2.1	217/263/295	78	273	6	4	22%	5%	52	-1.6	220/294/315	95	295	8	2	26%	8%	68	-0.2
✕Hidekel Gonzalez 2015 · A	18	44	37→45	47→45	37	205/260/286	81	312	4	7	34%	5%	49	-1.8	227/275/314	87	287	6	8	22%	5%	63	-0.9	241/291/328	87	291	6	8	19%	4%	72	-0.1
●José Fermín 2017 · A	18	42→50	37→45	48→55	44	201/258/285	84	274	3	8	27%	7%	48	-1.9	201/251/277	76	239	4	11	17%	4%	43	-2.2	256/343/399	143	276	14	28	13%	10%	110	+1.2