Kaden Hernandez — OGILVIE

Kaden HernandezSS DSL Padres Brown

Age 18 R/R 6'1" / 165 lbs ROK HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 75 proj PA

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.211 / .280 / .284

PA6

HR0

K%26

BB%7

ISO74

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	82	69	9	2	0	0	10	15	3	0	0	130	268	159	428	29	167	18	12	221	35	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	82	73	8	2	0	0	6	21	3	0	0	110	207	137	344	27	133	26	7	153	-10	-11	+0	—	—	+2	-0.9
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	82	73	8	2	0	0	6	21	3	0	0	110	207	137	344	27	154	26	7	153	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	—	82	69	9	2	0	0	10	15	3	0	0	130	268	159	428	29	167	18	12	221	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	82	73	8	2	0	0	6	21	3	0	0	110	207	137	344	27	133	26	7	153	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	82	73	8	2	0	0	6	21	3	0	0	110	207	137	344	27	133	26	7	153	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	18	MLB MLE	SD	0%	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	167	167	167	333		288	33	0	261	63	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	SD	34%	167	150	33	6	1	2	12	43	3	0	0	220	291	313	604	93	291	26	7	272	70	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.0
2028	20	MLB MLE	SD	48%	311	279	62	11	2	4	24	78	5	1	0	222	295	319	614	97	292	25	8	280	76	-9	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	SD	54%	421	379	86	16	3	6	32	105	7	1	0	227	299	332	631	106	293	25	8	285	79	-10	+0	+0	+5	+9	0.3
2030	22	MLB MLE	SD	57%	500	448	103	19	3	8	39	124	9	1	0	230	304	339	644	109	294	25	8	289	81	-11	+0	+0	+5	+11	0.5
2031	23	MLB MLE	SD	58%	553	495	114	21	3	9	43	136	10	1	0	230	305	339	644	109	295	25	8	291	83	-11	+0	+0	+6	+12	0.7
2032	24	MLB MLE	SD	57%	588	527	122	22	4	10	46	145	10	1	0	231	305	345	651	114	296	25	8	292	84	-11	+0	+0	+6	+13	0.8
2033	25	MLB MLE	SD	57%	609	545	126	23	4	10	48	150	11	1	0	231	306	343	649	112	296	25	8	293	85	-11	+0	+0	+7	+13	0.9
2034	26	MLB MLE	SD	57%	619	555	128	23	4	11	48	152	11	1	0	231	305	346	651	115	296	25	8	294	85	-11	+0	+0	+7	+13	1.0
2035	27	MLB MLE	SD	55%	621	556	129	23	4	11	49	153	11	1	0	232	307	347	654	115	296	25	8	294	85	-11	+0	+0	+7	+13	1.0
2036	28	MLB MLE	SD	55%	617	551	128	23	4	11	50	153	11	1	0	232	309	348	657	116	295	25	8	293	85	-11	+0	-1	+7	+13	0.8
2037	29	MLB MLE	SD	58%	608	543	123	22	3	10	49	152	11	1	0	227	303	333	637	107	295	25	8	292	83	-12	+0	-1	+7	+13	0.7
2038	30	MLB MLE	SD	60%	598	534	121	22	3	10	48	151	11	1	0	227	304	335	639	109	294	25	8	289	82	-13	+0	-2	+6	+13	0.5
2039	31	MLB MLE	SD	62%	584	522	117	21	3	9	47	149	10	1	0	224	301	328	628	103	292	26	8	285	79	-15	+0	-3	+6	+13	0.2
2040	32	MLB MLE	SD	63%	566	505	110	19	3	8	46	147	10	1	0	218	296	315	611	97	289	26	8	280	76	-16	+0	-4	+6	+12	-0.1
2027	19	MLB CTX	SD	34%	57	52	11	2	0	1	4	15	1	0	0	212	281	308	588	96	288	26	7	258	70	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	20	MLB CTX	SD	48%	151	136	30	5	1	2	11	38	3	0	0	221	293	316	610	96	289	25	7	265	76	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	SD	54%	228	204	45	8	1	3	18	57	4	0	0	221	296	314	610	93	290	25	8	271	79	-6	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.2
2030	22	MLB CTX	SD	57%	283	254	57	10	2	4	22	70	5	0	0	224	299	327	626	102	291	25	8	274	81	-6	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2031	23	MLB CTX	SD	58%	318	284	65	12	2	5	25	78	6	0	0	229	305	338	643	109	292	25	8	276	83	-7	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.4
2032	24	MLB CTX	SD	57%	335	300	69	12	2	6	26	82	6	0	0	230	304	343	648	113	293	24	8	278	84	-6	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.5
2033	25	MLB CTX	SD	57%	345	309	71	13	2	6	27	85	6	0	0	230	304	343	647	113	293	25	8	279	85	-6	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.5
2034	26	MLB CTX	SD	57%	350	314	72	13	2	6	27	86	6	0	0	229	303	341	643	111	293	25	8	279	85	-6	+0	+0	+4	+8	0.5
2035	27	MLB CTX	SD	55%	345	309	70	12	2	6	27	85	6	0	0	227	301	337	638	110	293	25	8	280	85	-6	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.5
2036	28	MLB CTX	SD	55%	339	303	69	12	2	6	27	84	6	0	0	228	304	340	644	112	292	25	8	279	85	-6	+0	-0	+4	+7	0.4
2037	29	MLB CTX	SD	58%	353	315	72	13	2	6	29	88	6	0	0	229	306	340	645	111	292	25	8	277	83	-7	+0	-1	+4	+8	0.4
2038	30	MLB CTX	SD	60%	360	322	73	13	2	6	29	91	6	0	0	227	303	335	638	109	291	25	8	275	82	-8	+0	-1	+4	+8	0.3
2039	31	MLB CTX	SD	62%	361	323	71	12	2	6	29	92	6	0	0	220	296	325	621	105	289	25	8	271	79	-9	+0	-2	+4	+8	0.1
2040	32	MLB CTX	SD	63%	355	317	69	12	2	5	29	92	6	0	0	218	295	315	611	98	286	26	8	266	76	-10	+0	-2	+4	+8	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4180	3742	844	149	24	68	330	1043	73	0	0	226	301	333	634	107	292	25	8	275	81	-90	+0	-6	+45	+91	4.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	582	132	23	4	11	51	162	11	0	0	227	301	337	638	110	293	25	8	275	81	-14	+0	-1	+7	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	7450	6668	1511	273	44	119	587	1861	133	13	0	227	302	334	636	108	295	25	8	288	81	-159	+3	-10	+79	+160	7.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	132	24	4	10	51	162	12	1	0	227	302	333	636	107	295	25	8	288	81	-14	+0	-1	+7	+14	0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#4Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.4	4,257	67	6	228	300	335	+46	+27	7.0	6.0
/162	664	10	1	+7.1	+4.2	1.1	pk7: 5
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kaden Hernandez (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	211/280/284	74	288	0	0	26%	7%	63	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Felix G. Santana 2013 · A	18	38	36→40	43→50	36	182/241/247	66	294	4	7	38%	6%	40	-3.1	206/265/279	73	285	4	8	28%	5%	55	-1.9	215/272/289	74	281	4	8	24%	4%	58	-0.5
✕Kenny Hart 2009 · A	19	39	35→45	45→50	36	187/240/243	56	275	2	6	31%	4%	38	-3.2	206/286/294	88	287	6	9	28%	7%	68	-1.0	200/295/300	100	268	8	12	26%	8%	72	-0.2
✕Elehuris Montero 2017 · A	18	39→49	36→55	45→30	42	188/247/254	66	266	4	3	29%	6%	42	-2.9	213/266/327	114	284	10	3	27%	6%	67	-1.1	228/288/408	180	289	24	1	29%	6%	94	+0.7
✕Leandro Pineda 2021 · A	19	37→47	36→45	44→45	43	180/244/238	58	245	3	6	27%	6%	38	-3.2	177/256/265	88	271	6	6	34%	8%	50	-2.3	210/283/339	129	268	13	5	26%	7%	74	-0.4
✕Jefrey Ramos 2017 · A	18	40→39	37→45	46→40	39	193/238/270	77	268	4	7	29%	5%	42	-2.9	207/245/326	119	268	12	3	27%	4%	59	-1.7	200/237/321	120	253	14	1	26%	4%	52	-1.5
✕Gabriel Guerrero 2012 · A	18	41→51	36→45	44→50	42	194/235/256	62	245	3	6	22%	5%	38	-3.2	234/265/343	109	305	11	7	26%	4%	70	-0.9	241/272/351	110	327	12	9	29%	4%	72	-0.5
✕Andrés Chaparro 2017 · A	18	40→49	36→55	47→40	43	188/249/258	70	271	2	5	30%	7%	44	-2.8	199/253/303	104	280	10	5	31%	7%	56	-1.9	235/306/419	184	277	23	3	24%	8%	101	+1.0
✕Stanley Martinez 2016 · A	19	40	36→45	48→50	44	189/254/259	70	267	2	9	28%	7%	47	-2.6	203/274/293	90	276	7	8	27%	7%	63	-1.4	202/276/292	90	272	8	7	27%	7%	62	-0.5
✕Robinson Medrano 2014 · A	18	40	36→45	50→45	35	192/232/256	64	290	4	10	34%	4%	36	-3.3	205/261/286	81	281	5	7	27%	6%	55	-1.9	200/259/285	85	267	6	5	26%	6%	51	-0.8
✕Ryan Vega 2016 · A	19	40	35→40	52→45	41	190/245/253	62	253	3	9	25%	5%	42	-2.9	221/274/312	91	286	8	7	24%	6%	66	-1.1	200/263/287	87	275	8	6	29%	6%	56	-0.8
✕Michael A. Taylor 2011 · A	20	38→48	37→55	45→60	41	183/239/259	76	257	4	5	29%	6%	41	-3.0	195/242/303	108	291	8	17	34%	5%	52	-2.2	240/298/383	143	310	19	14	28%	7%	90	+0.5
●Miguel Andujar 2013 · A	18	39→49	36→55	40→45	39	190/234/254	64	264	3	4	28%	5%	37	-3.3	218/255/316	98	276	9	6	24%	4%	59	-1.6	281/314/455	175	309	20	3	16%	4%	113	+1.7
✕Angel Ferreiras 2008 · A	19	38	37→40	42→50	36	184/230/261	77	274	4	4	33%	5%	37	-3.3	200/258/280	80	282	5	7	29%	6%	53	-2.1	193/257/270	77	265	4	7	27%	6%	47	-0.9
✕Nick Basto 2013 · A	19	40→48	35→45	45→30	36	193/240/249	56	280	3	3	31%	4%	38	-3.2	188/227/261	73	274	6	3	32%	4%	36	-3.3	203/259/307	104	279	11	0	30%	6%	58	-1.2
✕Gabriel Moncada 2021 · A	19	42→41	35→45	45→40	41	197/248/259	62	276	3	6	28%	6%	44	-2.8	216/296/329	113	319	10	4	33%	9%	79	-0.2	206/289/334	128	301	13	2	33%	9%	75	-0.2
✕Leobaldo Cabrera 2017 · A	19	40	35→45	43→45	40	190/239/243	53	262	3	7	28%	5%	36	-3.3	193/252/257	64	275	4	8	29%	6%	45	-2.7	170/243/274	104	260	13	10	38%	8%	45	-1.0
✕Albert Laboy 2006 · A	19	39→38	37→40	52→45	42	187/233/255	68	227	5	9	20%	4%	37	-3.3	210/254/295	85	254	8	8	20%	5%	55	-2.0	213/261/298	85	248	10	6	18%	5%	56	-1.0
✕Romer Cuadrado 2016 · A	18	39→35	37→40	44→45	39	186/244/255	69	278	4	10	33%	6%	42	-2.9	197/259/286	89	312	7	8	36%	7%	55	-2.0	189/247/274	85	308	7	6	39%	6%	45	-1.5
✕Rainer Nunez 2019 · A	18	41→50	37→45	42→30	43	196/238/263	68	232	4	4	18%	4%	40	-3.0	188/242/279	91	240	8	4	24%	6%	47	-2.6	215/256/348	133	276	17	0	29%	4%	67	-0.5
✕Mario Gonzalez 2010 · A	18	42	34→40	46→40	41	197/238/251	54	258	2	7	24%	5%	38	-3.2	203/281/267	64	256	3	5	20%	9%	59	-1.6	192/291/251	59	236	4	3	18%	10%	61	-0.5

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps