Nick Basto
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | AA/A+CWS | 549 | .288/.366/.443 | 12 | 0 | 79 | — | .238/.293/.356 |
| 2017 | 23 | AACWS | 531 | .247/.315/.392 | 14 | 0 | 59 | — | .205/.254/.325 |
| 2018 | 24 | AA/A+2 orgs | 216 | .182/.308/.249 | 2 | 0 | 21 | — | .141/.234/.199 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 18 | ROK | Bristol White Sox | — | 234 | 210 | 50 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 51 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 238 | 298 | 290 | 589 | 52 | 299 | 22 | 5 | 266 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | A | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 188 | 174 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 190 | 238 | 230 | 468 | 40 | 244 | 23 | 5 | 214 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK | Great Falls Voyagers | — | 56 | 55 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 309 | 309 | 436 | 745 | 127 | 421 | 30 | 0 | 321 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 342 | 315 | 83 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 66 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 263 | 316 | 387 | 703 | 124 | 310 | 19 | 6 | 313 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | ROK | ACL White Sox | — | 41 | 39 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 282 | 317 | 538 | 856 | 256 | 323 | 17 | 2 | 369 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 52 | 43 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 346 | 233 | 579 | 23 | 265 | 17 | 15 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 328 | 300 | 61 | 18 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 94 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 203 | 262 | 333 | 596 | 130 | 267 | 29 | 6 | 266 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 170 | 143 | 31 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 35 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 217 | 321 | 357 | 678 | 140 | 255 | 21 | 10 | 302 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 88 | 80 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 253 | 237 | 490 | 50 | 217 | 12 | 8 | 227 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 461 | 403 | 124 | 27 | 4 | 12 | 47 | 83 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 308 | 388 | 484 | 872 | 176 | 359 | 18 | 10 | 383 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 531 | 477 | 118 | 25 | 1 | 14 | 44 | 133 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 247 | 315 | 392 | 707 | 145 | 311 | 25 | 8 | 313 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 135 | 115 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 43 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 165 | 284 | 226 | 510 | 61 | 254 | 32 | 12 | 246 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 81 | 66 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 350 | 288 | 638 | 76 | 289 | 26 | 14 | 302 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | Bristol White Sox | — | 234 | 214 | 40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 72 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 187 | 237 | 224 | 461 | 37 | 251 | 31 | 3 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | A MLE | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 188 | 176 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 58 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 165 | 205 | 199 | 404 | 34 | 225 | 31 | 4 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | Great Falls Voyagers | — | 56 | 55 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 218 | 309 | 527 | 91 | 339 | 43 | 0 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 342 | 322 | 72 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 97 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 224 | 263 | 317 | 579 | 93 | 294 | 28 | 4 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL White Sox | — | 41 | 39 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 244 | 385 | 629 | 179 | 245 | 24 | 2 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 328 | 308 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 143 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 140 | 182 | 221 | 403 | 81 | 229 | 44 | 3 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A MLE | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 170 | 149 | 27 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 49 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 181 | 261 | 302 | 563 | 121 | 220 | 29 | 6 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 88 | 82 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 171 | 218 | 220 | 438 | 49 | 204 | 16 | 6 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 461 | 422 | 106 | 22 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 126 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 251 | 307 | 382 | 689 | 130 | 325 | 27 | 6 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 531 | 492 | 101 | 21 | 1 | 12 | 29 | 166 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 205 | 254 | 325 | 579 | 120 | 274 | 31 | 5 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 135 | 120 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 52 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 133 | 224 | 192 | 416 | 58 | 210 | 39 | 8 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 81 | 71 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 155 | 250 | 211 | 461 | 56 | 250 | 37 | 7 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | Bristol White Sox | — | 234 | 214 | 40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 72 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 187 | 237 | 224 | 461 | 37 | 265 | 31 | 3 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK RAW | Bristol White Sox | — | 234 | 210 | 50 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 51 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 238 | 298 | 290 | 589 | 52 | 299 | 22 | 5 | 266 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 244 | 231 | 39 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 82 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 169 | 200 | 203 | 403 | 35 | 252 | 34 | 3 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 244 | 229 | 50 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 61 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 218 | 254 | 279 | 534 | 61 | 284 | 25 | 4 | 239 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 435 | 410 | 91 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 122 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 222 | 262 | 322 | 584 | 100 | 296 | 28 | 3 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 435 | 397 | 103 | 18 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 82 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 259 | 319 | 385 | 705 | 126 | 306 | 19 | 6 | 315 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 498 | 456 | 70 | 19 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 192 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 154 | 211 | 248 | 458 | 94 | 235 | 39 | 5 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 498 | 443 | 92 | 29 | 0 | 10 | 36 | 129 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 208 | 282 | 341 | 623 | 133 | 263 | 26 | 7 | 278 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 549 | 504 | 120 | 26 | 3 | 9 | 33 | 139 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 238 | 293 | 355 | 648 | 117 | 308 | 25 | 6 | 284 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 549 | 483 | 139 | 31 | 4 | 12 | 54 | 94 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 288 | 366 | 443 | 810 | 155 | 333 | 17 | 10 | 358 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 531 | 492 | 101 | 21 | 1 | 12 | 29 | 166 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 205 | 254 | 325 | 579 | 120 | 280 | 31 | 5 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA RAW | Birmingham Barons | — | 531 | 477 | 118 | 25 | 1 | 14 | 44 | 133 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 247 | 315 | 392 | 707 | 145 | 311 | 25 | 8 | 313 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 216 | 190 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 82 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 142 | 238 | 200 | 438 | 58 | 234 | 38 | 8 | 200 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 216 | 181 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 64 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 182 | 308 | 249 | 557 | 66 | 267 | 30 | 12 | 267 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | Bristol White Sox | — | 234 | 218 | 40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 72 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 183 | 237 | 220 | 457 | 37 | 251 | 31 | 3 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 244 | 233 | 39 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 82 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 167 | 200 | 202 | 402 | 34 | 251 | 34 | 3 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 435 | 410 | 91 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 122 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 222 | 262 | 322 | 584 | 100 | 289 | 28 | 3 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 498 | 462 | 70 | 19 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 192 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 152 | 211 | 245 | 455 | 93 | 226 | 39 | 5 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 549 | 505 | 120 | 26 | 3 | 9 | 33 | 139 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 238 | 293 | 354 | 647 | 117 | 306 | 25 | 6 | 284 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 531 | 494 | 101 | 21 | 1 | 12 | 29 | 166 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 204 | 254 | 324 | 578 | 119 | 274 | 31 | 5 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 216 | 190 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 82 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 142 | 238 | 200 | 438 | 58 | 225 | 38 | 8 | 200 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2707 | 2497 | 488 | 89 | 10 | 40 | 134 | 855 | 39 | 5 | 14 | 195 | 248 | 287 | 535 | 92 | 275 | 32 | 5 | 236 | 46 | -175 | -5 | +0 | -29 | +59 | -15.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 600 | 117 | 21 | 2 | 10 | 32 | 205 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 195 | 246 | 287 | 533 | 92 | 273 | 32 | 5 | 236 | 46 | -42 | -1 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -3.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2018 AABirmingham Barons · 135 PAwOBA .241 → .186 (−54)K% 31.9% → 38.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.85% | ÷1.006 | ×1.220 | — | — | 38.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.85% | ÷0.954 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 8.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.22% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.83% | ÷1.069 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 17.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.78% | ÷0.969 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 2.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.39% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 1.02% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.39% | ÷0.949 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.19% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 114, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 101, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .241 → .186; ISO .061 → .048; BABIP .254 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Potomac Nationals · 81 PAwOBA .294 → .223 (−71)K% 25.9% → 36.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.93% | ÷0.998 | ×1.420 | — | — | 36.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.35% | ÷1.013 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 7.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.70% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 3.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.44% | ÷0.992 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 21.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.44% | ÷1.020 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 3.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.22% | ÷1.017 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 1.94% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 98, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .294 → .223; ISO .076 → .059; BABIP .289 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AABirmingham Barons · 531 PAwOBA .305 → .255 (−50)K% 25.0% → 31.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.05% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.72% | ÷1.001 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 5.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.67% | ÷1.009 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 20.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.27% | ÷1.021 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 6.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.29% | ÷1.086 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.07% | ÷0.894 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 3.74% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 117, K 96, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .305 → .255; ISO .145 → .126; BABIP .311 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 461 PAwOBA .374 → .301 (−72)K% 18.0% → 27.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.00% | ÷0.938 | ×1.420 | — | — | 27.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.33% | ÷0.996 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.012 | 5.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.30% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 1.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.31% | ÷0.994 | ×0.940 | ×0.980 | ×1.012 | 23.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.44% | ÷0.970 | ×0.830 | ×0.980 | ×1.012 | 7.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.25% | ÷1.013 | ×0.800 | ×0.980 | ×1.012 | 0.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.75% | ÷1.098 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.012 | 3.11% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 99, 2B 94, 3B 103, K 88, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .374 → .301; ISO .176 → .139; BABIP .359 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AABirmingham Barons · 88 PAwOBA .221 → .198 (−23)K% 12.5% → 15.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.991 | ×1.220 | — | — | 15.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.95% | ÷0.990 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 5.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.94% | ÷1.004 | ×0.920 | ×0.958 | ×1.042 | 14.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.80% | ÷0.897 | ×0.910 | ×0.958 | ×1.042 | 5.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.958 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.918 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 101, 2B 79, 3B 130, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .221 → .198; ISO .050 → .051; BABIP .217 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 328 PAwOBA .261 → .179 (−82)K% 28.7% → 43.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.66% | ÷0.932 | ×1.420 | — | — | 43.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.79% | ÷1.060 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.027 | 3.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.52% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.027 | 1.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.48% | ÷0.963 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 16.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.74% | ÷1.175 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 6.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.40% | ÷1.090 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.027 | 2.88% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 93, 2B 135, 3B 130, K 86, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .261 → .179; ISO .130 → .083; BABIP .267 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AKannapolis Intimidators · 170 PAwOBA .303 → .246 (−57)K% 20.6% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.59% | ÷0.963 | ×1.340 | — | — | 28.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.029 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.015 | 6.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.94% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.015 | 2.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.74% | ÷1.008 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 13.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.19% | ÷0.940 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 8.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.914 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.78% | ÷0.848 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.015 | 2.73% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 102, 2B 88, 3B 83, K 93, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .303 → .246; ISO .140 → .124; BABIP .255 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 342 PAwOBA .307 → .253 (−54)K% 19.3% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.30% | ÷0.961 | ×1.420 | — | — | 28.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.56% | ÷1.012 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.042 | 3.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.46% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.042 | 1.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.10% | ÷0.949 | ×0.940 | ×0.969 | ×1.042 | 24.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.62% | ÷1.069 | ×0.830 | ×0.969 | ×1.042 | 4.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.80% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×0.969 | ×1.042 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.81% | ÷1.065 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.042 | 2.48% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 90, 2B 114, 3B 130, K 92, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .307 → .253; ISO .124 → .094; BABIP .310 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).