Miguel Andujar

LF San Diego Padres
Age 32 R/R 6'0" / 211 lbs MLB HR +5% Svc 7.308 · Ctrl thru 2027
Overview
MLB40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202429AAA/INTL2 orgs51.245/.275/.4081064—.333/.368/.500
202429MLBOakland Athle…319.285/.321/.3774399-0.3
202530MLBCIN341.318/.354/.4701011271.5
202631AAASD38.306/.324/.4440075—.250/.270/.361
202631MLBSD254.259/.303/.423521050.8
2027PROJ32MLBSD225.258/.297/.39842980.1
2028PROJ33MLBSD197.250/.288/.3804189-0.5
Last 3 seasons WAR 2.0  ·  Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2027Service7.308First FA2028Options2
2027Ext / FA-deal$1M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Bat Spd48
Speed47
xwOBA38
Avg EV28
Barrel%17
CompsAdonis García (age 32) · Mike Kinkade (age 33) · Andy Phillips (age 32)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 10398vR 84
AVG/OBP/SLG.258 / .297 / .398
PA225
HR4
K%16
BB%4
BABIP290
ISO132
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -0.6 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-1BATRUN: +0.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -1.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: -2.4 runs (Positional adjustment)-2POSREP: +4.9 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.10+0.1WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.1-0.52728
Tools · Splits · Contract
ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT
xAVG
600.260
POWER
Barrel%
173.9
Avg EV
2887.4
Bat Spd
4871.1
SPEED
Sprint
4727.4
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 704 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
154
550
—
wRC+
178
96
◀◀L
wOBA
431
309
◀◀L
ISO
164
112
◀◀L
BABIP
445
311
◀◀L
K%
14.3%
14.2%
—
BB%
4.5%
4.2%
◀L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2018
Service   7.308 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2027
First FA Year   2028
OPT
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Ext / FA-deal$1M+0.1$0.4M-$0.6M
Totals $1M $0.4M -$0.6M
Options · projected decision
2027MUTUAL OPT$1.0M / $0.0M buyoutDECLINE
2028MUTUAL OPT$8.0M / $2.5M buyoutDECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201217 ROKGCL Yankees — 191177 41901 13371 13 232288299587 68288 197 270 16 — — — — — —
201318 ROKGCL Yankees2 — 144133 431104 7213 41 323371496867 173358 155 381 77 — — — — — —
201419 ACharleston RiverDogs — 527484 12925410 35833 51 267320397717 130302 167 318 74 — — — — — —
201520 A+Tampa Yankees — 520485 1182458 29903 121 243290363653 120282 176 291 52 — — — — — —
201621 AATrenton Thunder — 319282 751622 21427 21 266332358690 92296 137 306 84 — — — — — —
201621 A+Tampa Yankees — 251230 6510210 18303 13 283343474817 191289 127 361 102 — — — — — —
201621 INTLScottsdale Scorpions — 7767 19220 9110 01 284368373742 90333 1412 333 112 — — — — — —
201722 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 250227 721319 17332 30 317370502872 185333 137 379 115 — — — — — —
201722 AATrenton Thunder — 272253 792317 12382 23 312348494842 182338 144 364 120 — — — — — —
201722 INTLGigantes del Cibao — 7065 12001 491 01 185243231474 46200 136 222 37 — — — — — —
201823 MLBNew York Yankees — 606573 17047227 25974 21 297331527858 230316 164 372 133 +24 +0 -4 +2 +13 3.6
201924 MLBNew York Yankees — 4947 6000 1110 00 128146128273 162 222 125 -29 -8 +0 -2 +0 +1 -0.8
202025 MLBNew York Yankees — 6562 15211 390 00 242277355632 113269 145 282 76 -2 +0 -3 -1 +1 -0.5
202025 INTLToros del Este — 4240 12400 240 10 300333400733 100333 105 328 108 — — — — — —
202126 MLBNew York Yankees — 162154 39206 7280 01 253286383669 130273 174 296 83 -3 -0 -2 -3 +4 -0.5
202126 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 6354 18105 760 00 3334106301.039 296289 1011 435 128 — — — — — —
202126 INTLToros del Este — 3331 5000 160 00 161188161349 192 183 158 -7 — — — — — —
202227 MLBPittsburgh Pirates — 140132 31511 5270 41 235263311573 76280 194 252 57 -7 +0 +1 -6 +3 -0.9
202227 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 297277 7917013 17352 50 285331487818 202287 126 359 79 — — — — — —
202227 INTLToros del Este — 9285 21302 7150 10 247304353657 106279 168 298 88 — — — — — —
202328 MLBPittsburgh Pirates — 9084 21704 6130 20 250300476776 226254 147 339 118 +2 +0 -1 -7 +2 -0.4
202328 AAAIndianapolis Indians — 465414 14030216 47551 53 338407536943 198358 1210 413 103 — — — — — —
202328 INTLTigres del Licey — 131121 37222 791 10 306349405754 99312 75 333 112 — — — — — —
202429 MLBOakland Athletics — 319302 861414 13423 32 285321377698 93319 134 313 99 -0 -0 -5 -4 +7 -0.3
202429 AAALas Vegas Aviators — 1918 7400 120 00 3894216111.032 222438 115 450 124 — — — — — —
202429 INTLTigres del Licey — 3231 5101 160 00 161188290478 129167 193 212 29 — — — — — —
202530 MLBCincinnati Reds — 341321 10217110 17491 10 318354470824 153348 145 363 127 +11 +0 -5 +1 +7 1.5
202530 AAALas Vegas Aviators — 1818 4010 030 00 222222333556 111267 170 241 22 — — — — — —
202631 MLBSan Diego Padres — 254239 622025 11384 22 259303423726 163291 154 321 105 +1 -0 +0 +1 +6 0.8
202631 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas — 3836 11500 140 00 306324444769 139333 113 330 75 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 20261914 532114858 8831412 147 278314437751 159305 154 330 110 +23 +0 -20 -16 +44 3.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201217 ROK MLEGCL Yankees — 191182 31601 8531 13 170209220429 49237 284 192 16 — — — — — —
201318 ROK MLEGCL Yankees2 — 144136 34803 4303 41 250287375662 125288 213 282 77 — — — — — —
201419 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 527497 1222049 221143 51 245282356638 111296 224 277 74 — — — — — —
201520 A+ MLETampa Yankees — 520492 1012138 221263 121 205244309553 104258 244 245 52 — — — — — —
201621 AA MLETrenton Thunder — 319288 771522 15517 21 267319354674 87294 165 292 84 — — — — — —
201621 A+ MLETampa Yankees — 251234 6010210 14433 13 256307444751 188275 176 319 102 — — — — — —
201722 AAA MLEScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 250234 691216 10402 30 295329432761 137326 164 338 115 — — — — — —
201722 AA MLETrenton Thunder — 272256 792316 9462 23 309337477814 168340 173 346 120 — — — — — —
201823 MLB MLENew York Yankees — 606575 16948225 23974 21 294326515840 221316 164 365 133 +24 +0 -4 +2 +13 3.6
201924 MLB MLENew York Yankees — 4947 6000 1110 00 128146128273 162 222 125 -29 -8 +0 -2 +0 +1 -0.8
202025 MLB MLENew York Yankees — 6562 15211 390 00 242277355632 113269 145 280 76 -2 +0 -3 -1 +1 -0.5
202126 MLB MLENew York Yankees — 162154 39206 7280 01 253286383669 130273 174 292 83 -3 -0 -2 -3 +4 -0.5
202126 AAA MLEScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 6356 16103 570 00 286344464809 179261 118 357 128 — — — — — —
202227 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 140132 31511 5270 41 235263311573 76280 194 252 57 -7 +0 +1 -6 +3 -0.9
202227 AAA MLEScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 297284 691509 10422 50 243274391664 148252 143 285 79 — — — — — —
202328 MLB MLEPittsburgh Pirates — 9084 21704 6130 20 250300476776 226254 147 343 118 +2 +0 -1 -7 +2 -0.4
202328 AAA MLEIndianapolis Indians — 465433 12024210 28681 53 277323411734 134304 156 321 103 — — — — — —
202429 MLB MLEOakland Athletics — 319302 861414 13423 32 285321377698 93319 134 315 99 -0 -0 -5 -4 +7 -0.3
202429 AAA MLELas Vegas Aviators — 1918 6300 120 00 333368500868 167363 115 351 124 — — — — — —
202530 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 341322 1011719 16491 10 314348457805 143348 145 356 127 +11 +0 -5 +1 +7 1.5
202530 AAA MLELas Vegas Aviators — 1818 3010 040 00 167167278444 111235 220 201 22 — — — — — —
202631 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 254241 632125 9384 22 261299427727 166291 154 323 105 +1 -0 +0 +1 +6 0.8
202631 AAA MLEEl Paso Chihuahuas — 3836 9400 150 00 250270361631 111284 133 279 75 — — — — — —
201217 ROK MLEGCL Yankees — 191182 31601 8531 13 170209220429 49234 284 192 16 — — — — — —
201217 ROK RAWGCL Yankees — 191177 41901 13371 13 232288299587 68288 197 270 16 — — — — — —
201318 ROK MLEGCL Yankees2 — 144136 34803 4303 41 250287375662 125298 213 282 77 — — — — — —
201318 ROK RAWGCL Yankees2 — 144133 431104 7213 41 323371496867 173358 155 381 77 — — — — — —
201419 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 527497 1222049 221143 51 245282356638 111300 224 277 74 — — — — — —
201419 A RAWCharleston RiverDogs — 527484 12925410 35833 51 267320397717 130302 167 318 74 — — — — — —
201520 A+ MLETampa Yankees — 520492 1012138 221263 121 205244309553 104258 244 245 52 — — — — — —
201520 A+ RAWTampa Yankees — 520485 1182458 29903 121 243290363653 120282 176 291 52 — — — — — —
201621 AA MLE3 teams — 647595 15529413 3210710 35 261309388697 128293 175 304 92 — — — — — —
201621 AA RAW3 teams — 647579 15928612 488310 35 275341406747 131298 137 330 92 — — — — — —
201722 AA MLE3 teams — 592556 16940214 22975 54 304336459795 155341 164 342 118 — — — — — —
201722 AA RAW3 teams — 592545 16336217 33805 54 299345466811 167319 146 353 118 — — — — — —
201823 MLB MLENew York Yankees — 606575 16948225 23974 21 294326515840 221315 164 365 133 +24 +0 -4 +2 +13 3.6
201823 MLB RAWNew York Yankees — 606573 17047227 25974 21 297331527858 230316 164 372 133 +24 +0 -4 +2 +13 3.6
201924 MLB MLENew York Yankees — 4947 6000 1110 00 128146128273 162 222 125 -29 -8 +0 -2 +0 +1 -0.8
201924 MLB RAWNew York Yankees — 4947 6000 1110 00 128146128273 162 222 125 -29 -8 +0 -2 +0 +1 -0.8
202025 MLB MLE2 teams — 107102 25322 5150 10 245280373653 127271 145 280 76 -3 +0 -3 -1 +2 -0.5
202025 MLB RAW2 teams — 107102 27611 5130 10 265299373672 108295 125 300 76 -3 +0 -3 -1 +2 -0.5
202126 MLB MLE3 teams — 258240 623010 14400 01 258299396695 137268 165 310 96 -1 -0 -2 -3 +6 -0.1
202126 MLB RAW3 teams — 258239 623011 15400 01 259303410713 151266 166 313 96 -1 -0 -2 -3 +6 -0.1
202227 AAA MLE3 teams — 529504 11923112 19832 101 236267357624 121259 164 275 72 — — — — — —
202227 AAA RAW3 teams — 529494 13125116 29772 101 265309417726 152284 155 320 72 — — — — — —
202328 AAA MLE3 teams — 686637 17438218 421012 83 273320424744 151298 156 325 106 — — — — — —
202328 AAA RAW3 teams — 686619 19839422 60772 83 320382502884 183335 119 388 106 — — — — — —
202429 MLB MLE3 teams — 370351 1011815 15493 32 288322387710 100322 134 317 101 +0 -0 -5 -4 +8 -0.1
202429 MLB RAW3 teams — 370351 981915 15503 32 279314382696 103313 144 311 101 +0 -0 -5 -4 +8 -0.1
202530 MLB MLE2 teams — 359340 1041729 16531 10 306339447786 141339 154 348 122 +9 +0 -5 +1 +8 1.4
202530 MLB RAW2 teams — 359339 10617210 17521 10 313347463810 150344 145 357 122 +9 +0 -5 +1 +8 1.4
202631 MLB MLE2 teams — 292277 732525 10434 22 264299422721 159296 153 317 101 +0 -0 +0 +1 +6 0.7
202631 MLB RAW2 teams — 292275 732525 12424 22 265306425731 160297 144 322 101 +0 -0 +0 +1 +6 0.7
201217 ROK MLEGCL Yankees — 191180 31601 8531 13 172209222432 50237 284 192 16 — — — — — —
201318 ROK MLEGCL Yankees2 — 144136 34803 4303 41 250287375662 125288 213 282 77 — — — — — —
201419 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 527497 1222049 221143 51 245282356638 111296 224 277 74 — — — — — —
201520 A+ MLETampa Yankees — 520490 1012138 221263 121 206244310554 104258 244 245 52 — — — — — —
201621 AA MLE3 teams — 647600 15529413 3210710 35 258309385694 127286 175 304 92 — — — — — —
201722 AA MLE3 teams — 592560 16940214 22975 54 302336455792 154333 164 342 118 — — — — — —
201823 MLB MLENew York Yankees — 606574 16948225 23974 21 294326516841 221316 164 365 133 — — — — — —
201924 MLB MLENew York Yankees — 4948 6000 1110 00 125146125271 162 222 125 -29 — — — — — —
202025 MLB MLE2 teams — 107101 25322 5150 10 248280376657 129269 145 280 76 — — — — — —
202126 MLB MLE3 teams — 258242 623010 14400 01 256299393692 136269 165 310 96 — — — — — —
202227 AAA MLE3 teams — 529503 11923112 19832 101 237267358625 121261 164 275 72 — — — — — —
202328 AAA MLE3 teams — 686637 17438218 421012 83 273320424744 151296 156 325 106 — — — — — —
202429 MLB MLE3 teams — 370349 1011815 15493 32 289322390712 100322 134 317 101 — — — — — —
202530 MLB MLE2 teams — 359339 1041729 16531 10 307339448787 142343 154 348 122 — — — — — —
202631 MLB MLE2 teams — 292276 732525 10434 22 264299424723 159290 153 317 101 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202429 MLB MLE3 teams — 370349 1011815 15493 32 289322390712 100322 134 317 101 — — — — — —
202530 MLB MLE2 teams — 359339 1041729 16531 10 307339448787 142343 154 348 122 — — — — — —
202631 MLB MLE2 teams — 292276 732525 10434 22 264299424723 159290 153 317 101 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202732 MLB MLESD 100% 336315 842227 14544 31 264303407710 143297 164 313 98 -1 +0 -1 -4 +7 0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202732 MLB CTXSD 100% 225212 541414 9362 21 258297398696 140290 164 307 98 -1 +0 -1 -2 +5 0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202833 MLB MLESD 100% 197185 471213 8332 10 255292388680 133290 174 300 89 -2 +0 -5 -2 +4 -0.5
202833 MLB CTXSD 100% 197185 461114 8332 10 250288380667 130283 174 295 89 -2 +0 -5 -2 +4 -0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 22232099 578125962 9634714 157 275311432744 157303 164 327 92 +21 +0 -25 -18 +48 2.6
/ 162G— A+C — 650614 17037318 281014 42 277313435748 158305 164 327 92 +6 +0 -7 -5 +14 0.8
Career— MLE — 62995928 154832627141 272108845 6026 261299397695 135296 174 305 92 +20 +0 -26 -21 +53 2.7
/ 162G— MLE — 650612 16134315 281125 63 263301402703 139298 174 305 92 +5 +0 -7 -6 +14 0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 38 PAwOBA .330 → .279 (−51)K% 10.5% → 12.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA10.53%÷1.000×1.200——12.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA2.63%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9621.75%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9620.00%
Singles /BIP18.75%÷1.000×0.930—×0.96216.77%
Doubles /BIP15.62%÷1.000×0.830—×0.96212.48%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970—×0.9620.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9620.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .330 → .279; ISO .139 → .113; BABIP .333 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 18 PAwOBA .234 → .201 (−33)K% 16.7% → 19.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.67%÷1.027×1.200——19.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA0.00%÷0.970×0.690—×0.9720.00%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9720.00%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷1.052×0.930—×0.97217.18%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷0.988×0.830—×0.9720.00%
Triples /BIP6.67%÷1.000×0.970—×0.9726.29%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.183×0.700—×0.9720.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .234 → .201; ISO .111 → .101; BABIP .267 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 19 PAwOBA .437 → .351 (−86)K% 10.5% → 12.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA10.53%÷1.022×1.200——12.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.26%÷0.952×0.690—×0.9823.75%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9820.00%
Singles /BIP18.75%÷0.974×0.930—×0.98217.58%
Doubles /BIP25.00%÷1.088×0.830—×0.98218.73%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970—×0.9820.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.001×0.700—×0.9820.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 95, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 104, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .437 → .351; ISO .222 → .166; BABIP .438 → .363. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 465 PAwOBA .402 → .321 (−81)K% 11.8% → 14.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.83%÷0.967×1.200——14.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.46%÷1.056×0.690—×0.9926.14%
HBP% /PA0.22%—×0.940—×0.9920.20%
Singles /BIP25.63%÷1.004×0.930×0.967×0.99222.79%
Doubles /BIP8.36%÷1.013×0.830×0.967×0.9926.57%
Triples /BIP0.56%÷1.150×0.970×0.967×0.9920.45%
Home runs /BIP4.46%÷1.095×0.700—×0.9922.83%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 101, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 93, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.

Result: wOBA .402 → .321; ISO .198 → .142; BABIP .358 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 297 PAwOBA .349 → .285 (−63)K% 11.8% → 14.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.78%÷1.001×1.200——14.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.39%÷1.066×0.690—×1.0033.50%
HBP% /PA0.67%—×0.940—×1.0030.63%
Singles /BIP20.25%÷1.047×0.930×1.018×1.00318.36%
Doubles /BIP7.02%÷0.988×0.830×1.018×1.0036.02%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×1.018×1.0030.00%
Home runs /BIP5.37%÷1.006×0.700—×1.0033.75%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 109, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 100, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .349 → .285; ISO .202 → .151; BABIP .287 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 63 PAwOBA .437 → .357 (−80)K% 9.5% → 11.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA9.52%÷0.993×1.200——11.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.11%÷0.973×0.690—×1.0188.02%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0180.00%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷0.974×0.930×0.972×1.01823.61%
Doubles /BIP2.08%÷0.915×0.830×0.972×1.0181.87%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.920×0.972×1.0180.00%
Home runs /BIP10.42%÷1.149×0.700—×1.0186.46%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 95, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .437 → .357; ISO .296 → .200; BABIP .289 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AATrenton Thunder · 272 PAwOBA .360 → .346 (−14)K% 14.0% → 16.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.97%÷1.007×1.220——16.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA4.41%÷0.979×0.700—×1.0423.29%
HBP% /PA0.74%—×0.850—×1.0420.65%
Singles /BIP22.33%÷1.020×0.970×1.035×1.04222.89%
Doubles /BIP10.70%÷0.936×0.860×1.035×1.04210.59%
Triples /BIP0.47%÷1.150×0.950×1.035×1.0420.41%
Home runs /BIP3.26%÷0.960×0.780—×1.0422.76%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 104, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 101, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .360 → .346; ISO .182 → .168; BABIP .338 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 250 PAwOBA .373 → .338 (−35)K% 13.2% → 15.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.20%÷0.995×1.200——15.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.40%÷1.105×0.690—×1.0504.20%
HBP% /PA0.80%—×0.940—×1.0500.79%
Singles /BIP25.26%÷0.980×0.930×1.013×1.05025.50%
Doubles /BIP6.70%÷0.951×0.830×1.013×1.0506.22%
Triples /BIP0.52%÷1.150×0.970×1.013×1.0500.46%
Home runs /BIP4.64%÷1.247×0.840—×1.0503.28%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 96, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 99, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .373 → .338; ISO .185 → .148; BABIP .333 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .