Pablo Martinez

SS FCL Astros

Age 19 R/R 5'11" / 165 lbs ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL Astros Or…	221	.266/.404/.339	1	21	46	—	.168/.294/.195
2026	18	ROKHOU	81	.302/.436/.349	0	16	77	—	.254/.359/.299
2027PROJ0% MLB	19	MLBHOU	191	.214/.289/.282	1	5	64	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBHOU	57	.221/.297/.302	0	1	70	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBHOU	148	.225/.301/.315	2	4	75	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Z-Con%93

Whiff%88

Chase%87

Speed70

K%47

wRC+45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 91%

CompsDixon Machado (age 19) · Esteban Mejia (age 19) · Fernando Kelli (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 74 proj PA

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .286 / .280

PA74

HR0

K%24

BB%8

ISO69

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$19M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2036	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	221	177	47	6	2	1	29	30	12	21	4	266	404	339	743	73	309	14	13	346	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	FCL Astros	—	81	63	19	1	1	0	11	11	4	16	1	302	436	349	785	48	352	14	14	357	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	221	185	31	3	1	0	21	36	12	21	4	168	294	195	488	27	203	16	10	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	81	67	17	1	1	0	7	16	4	16	1	254	359	299	657	45	289	20	9	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	221	185	31	3	1	0	21	36	12	21	4	168	294	195	488	27	204	16	10	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	—	221	177	47	6	2	1	29	30	12	21	4	266	404	339	743	73	309	14	13	346	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	81	67	17	1	1	0	7	16	4	16	1	254	359	299	657	45	321	20	9	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	—	81	63	19	1	1	0	11	11	4	16	1	302	436	349	785	48	352	14	14	357	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	221	186	31	3	1	0	21	36	12	21	4	167	294	194	487	27	203	16	10	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	81	70	17	1	1	0	7	16	4	16	1	243	359	286	645	43	289	20	9	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	221	186	31	3	1	0	21	36	12	21	4	167	294	194	487	27	203	16	10	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	81	70	17	1	1	0	7	16	4	16	1	243	359	286	645	43	289	20	9	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	191	171	37	5	2	1	14	45	4	5	1	214	289	282	571	69	281	24	7	264	64	-8	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	HOU	34%	165	148	32	5	1	1	13	39	3	4	1	218	295	298	592	80	283	24	8	272	70	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.0
2029	21	MLB MLE	HOU	48%	305	272	61	9	2	4	24	71	6	8	1	222	299	311	610	89	284	23	8	279	75	-9	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.2
2030	22	MLB MLE	HOU	54%	409	366	82	12	3	6	32	94	8	10	2	225	302	322	624	96	285	23	8	284	79	-10	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.4
2031	23	MLB MLE	HOU	57%	478	428	98	15	4	7	38	110	9	12	2	228	304	330	635	103	287	23	8	289	81	-11	+2	+0	+5	+10	0.7
2032	24	MLB MLE	HOU	57%	523	466	108	16	4	9	42	120	10	13	2	230	306	338	644	108	288	23	8	292	84	-10	+2	+0	+6	+11	0.9
2033	25	MLB MLE	HOU	57%	550	491	113	17	4	9	44	126	10	14	3	230	307	339	646	109	288	23	8	293	84	-10	+2	+0	+6	+12	0.9
2034	26	MLB MLE	HOU	56%	565	504	117	18	4	10	45	129	11	14	3	230	307	340	647	110	288	23	8	293	85	-10	+2	+0	+6	+12	1.0
2035	27	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	569	508	117	18	4	10	46	131	10	14	3	229	306	338	644	108	287	23	8	292	84	-11	+2	+0	+6	+12	0.9
2036	28	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	568	508	115	17	4	9	45	132	10	13	3	228	304	333	637	105	286	23	8	289	82	-12	+1	-1	+6	+12	0.7
2037	29	MLB MLE	HOU	58%	560	500	113	17	4	9	45	132	10	12	2	225	301	327	629	102	285	24	8	286	80	-14	+2	-1	+6	+12	0.5
2038	30	MLB MLE	HOU	60%	550	492	110	16	4	8	43	131	10	11	2	223	298	320	618	97	284	24	8	281	77	-15	+1	-2	+6	+12	0.2
2039	31	MLB MLE	HOU	57%	537	481	106	16	4	7	42	130	9	9	3	219	293	310	604	92	281	24	8	276	73	-17	+1	-3	+6	+12	-0.2
2028	20	MLB CTX	HOU	34%	57	52	11	2	0	0	4	13	1	1	0	221	297	302	598	81	286	23	7	275	70	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	HOU	48%	148	132	30	5	1	2	12	34	3	4	1	225	301	315	616	90	288	23	8	281	75	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	HOU	54%	222	199	45	7	2	3	17	51	4	6	1	228	304	325	629	97	289	23	8	287	79	-6	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.2
2031	23	MLB CTX	HOU	57%	271	243	56	9	2	4	21	62	5	7	1	230	307	334	640	103	291	23	8	291	81	-6	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.4
2032	24	MLB CTX	HOU	57%	296	264	62	10	2	5	24	68	6	7	1	232	309	341	650	108	292	23	8	294	84	-6	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2033	25	MLB CTX	HOU	57%	311	277	64	10	2	5	25	71	6	8	1	233	309	343	652	110	292	23	8	295	84	-6	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.6
2034	26	MLB CTX	HOU	56%	319	285	66	11	2	5	25	73	6	8	1	233	309	343	652	110	292	23	8	295	85	-6	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.6
2035	27	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	315	281	64	10	2	5	25	72	6	8	1	232	308	341	649	109	291	23	8	294	84	-6	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.5
2036	28	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	312	278	64	10	2	5	25	72	6	7	1	230	306	336	643	106	290	23	8	292	82	-7	+1	-0	+3	+7	0.4
2037	29	MLB CTX	HOU	58%	325	290	66	10	2	5	26	76	6	7	1	228	304	330	634	103	289	23	8	288	80	-8	+1	-1	+3	+7	0.3
2038	30	MLB CTX	HOU	60%	331	296	66	10	2	5	26	79	6	7	1	225	300	323	623	98	288	24	8	284	77	-9	+1	-1	+4	+7	0.1
2039	31	MLB CTX	HOU	57%	304	272	60	9	2	4	24	74	5	5	2	221	295	314	609	93	285	24	8	278	73	-10	+0	-2	+3	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3211	2869	654	103	21	48	254	745	60	75	12	228	304	329	633	101	289	23	8	289	79	-75	+10	-4	+34	+70	3.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	133	21	4	10	51	151	12	15	2	229	304	330	635	102	290	23	8	289	79	-15	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	6155	5483	1234	182	45	89	493	1415	123	173	32	225	303	323	627	98	285	23	8	285	79	-139	+16	-7	+63	+127	6.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	130	19	5	9	52	149	13	18	3	225	303	321	624	97	285	23	8	285	79	-15	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Dick Schofield'83-'96 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,928 PA	7.4	4,928	56	120	227*	307*	330*	+52	+19	9.4	10.0
/162	664	8	16	+7.1	+2.5	1.3	pk7: 11
#4Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#5Jose Uribe'84-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,369 PA	5.1	3,369	19	74	240*	300*	338*	+36	+27	7.8	7.7
/162	664	4	15	+7.1	+5.3	1.5	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.9	3,284	50	76	227	300	329	+35	+21	5.7	5.2
/162	664	10	15	+7.1	+4.2	1.2	pk7: 5
#6Lennie Merullo'41-'47 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,264 PA	3.4	2,264	6	38	234*	283*	339*	+24	+15	3.3	3.3
/162	664	2	11	+7.1	+4.4	1.0	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Pablo Martinez (OGILVIE)	19	45	20	60	50	212/286/280	68	281	0	2	24%	8%	64	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dixon Machado 2011 · A	19	41→51	35→45	54→55	47	190/247/244	55	232	2	18	19%	7%	40	-3.0	202/258/245	43	256	2	15	20%	7%	45	-2.7	254/310/331	78	304	5	12	17%	7%	81	-0.1
✕Esteban Mejia 2024 · A	19	39	36→40	55→50	41	188/242/257	68	263	3	15	28%	6%	41	-3.0	199/263/280	81	297	6	14	32%	7%	55	-1.9	196/265/273	77	287	7	15	32%	7%	52	-1.1
✕Fernando Kelli 2017 · A	19	41	34→30	50→65	41	191/254/234	43	274	2	22	29%	6%	41	-3.0	204/288/270	66	270	3	31	24%	8%	63	-1.3	194/297/258	65	249	3	51	21%	8%	65	-0.6
✕Daniel Padilla 2016 · A	19	44	35→30	52→55	44	207/262/261	54	265	3	14	22%	6%	49	-2.4	204/280/263	59	267	2	16	22%	9%	57	-1.8	188/286/229	41	238	0	27	18%	12%	53	-0.7
✕Ricardo Rosario 2022 · A	19	39	36→40	52→55	45	184/248/252	68	235	3	13	22%	6%	43	-2.8	196/262/276	80	267	6	17	27%	7%	54	-2.0	194/268/275	82	258	8	24	27%	8%	55	-0.8
✕Edwin Gomez 2007 · A	19	40	34→40	52→50	45	188/248/242	54	254	2	16	26%	7%	40	-3.0	204/287/282	78	267	5	13	23%	10%	65	-1.2	191/302/269	79	238	6	17	20%	12%	68	-0.4
✕Alex Gonzalez 2010 · A	19	40	33→30	54→60	43	185/256/228	43	270	1	22	30%	7%	41	-3.0	196/268/246	50	263	1	15	24%	8%	49	-2.4	185/268/226	41	237	0	14	20%	9%	44	-0.9
✕Francisco Martinez 2010 · A	19	42→52	35→40	50→55	42	199/243/252	53	254	3	15	23%	5%	40	-3.1	227/268/308	81	306	6	14	26%	5%	62	-1.4	234/277/316	82	314	6	16	26%	5%	64	-0.9
✕Robedluis Fuentes 2008 · A	19	40	36→30	53→45	47	188/257/252	64	241	3	12	22%	7%	47	-2.6	205/271/253	48	244	2	7	16%	7%	52	-2.2	203/270/235	32	236	1	5	13%	6%	46	-1.2
✕Diego Infante 2018 · A	18	40→50	35→45	53→50	43	189/237/252	63	250	2	12	24%	6%	38	-3.2	194/238/262	68	291	3	10	32%	5%	40	-3.0	233/284/360	127	349	14	14	35%	6%	79	-0.2
✕Theo Bowe 2010 · A	19	43→53	35→30	54→60	43	200/261/257	57	288	2	18	29%	7%	49	-2.4	225/284/284	59	309	3	24	26%	7%	63	-1.4	241/302/294	53	324	2	37	24%	7%	70	-0.5
✕Adrián Sanchez 2010 · A	19	41→48	36→45	52→50	44	193/239/263	70	231	3	13	18%	5%	41	-3.0	231/256/304	73	280	4	12	19%	2%	56	-1.9	245/278/342	97	288	7	15	17%	4%	72	-0.3
✕Ryan Vega 2016 · A	19	40	35→40	52→45	41	191/245/253	62	254	3	9	25%	5%	42	-2.9	219/272/310	91	283	7	7	24%	6%	65	-1.2	198/260/284	86	272	8	6	29%	6%	54	-0.9
✕Albert Laboy 2006 · A	19	39→38	37→40	52→45	42	187/233/255	68	227	5	9	20%	4%	38	-3.2	211/255/297	86	256	8	8	20%	5%	55	-1.9	215/263/301	86	251	10	6	18%	5%	57	-1.0
✕Angel Aponte 2019 · A	19	38	39→40	56→55	44	185/255/267	82	238	6	20	24%	6%	50	-2.3	204/263/292	88	285	6	19	29%	6%	57	-1.8	204/262/297	93	286	8	25	30%	6%	57	-0.7
✕Yefri Pérez 2010 · A	19	40→50	34→30	56→60	52	181/250/240	58	214	1	16	15%	8%	41	-3.0	206/256/264	58	268	2	13	22%	6%	47	-2.5	236/270/266	30	299	1	35	21%	4%	50	-1.5
✕Darlin Moquete 2019 · A	19	42	35→45	54→55	45	197/251/259	62	251	2	18	22%	6%	45	-2.7	217/276/294	77	269	5	18	20%	6%	63	-1.4	192/249/298	106	235	13	15	24%	6%	53	-0.9
✕Jean Carlos Sio 2023 · A	19	38→48	36→45	52→50	52	175/254/238	63	212	3	16	18%	9%	42	-2.9	209/290/287	78	270	5	12	23%	9%	67	-1.1	224/303/331	107	289	11	12	25%	8%	79	-0.2
✕Steward Berroa 2018 · A	19	40→50	36→45	52→65	45	189/257/257	67	264	2	17	28%	8%	47	-2.5	204/269/271	67	302	2	17	30%	8%	55	-2.0	227/306/323	96	332	8	52	31%	10%	79	-0.1
✕Rodolfo Penalo 2013 · A	20	38	35→30	51→65	50	176/248/238	62	212	2	18	18%	8%	40	-3.1	199/280/263	64	250	2	26	19%	9%	57	-1.8	195/284/251	56	248	1	34	20%	10%	54	-0.7

Pablo Martinez

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps