Steven Herrera

SS DSL Miami

Age 19 R/R 6'0" / 160 lbs ROK HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1609ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKMIA	180	.268/.416/.472	6	17	45	—	.145/.270/.224
2026	18	ROKDSL Miami	167	.200/.349/.444	8	16	28	—	.112/.235/.238
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBMIA	277	.191/.272/.287	4	7	60	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBMIA	48	.190/.273/.287	1	1	65	-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBMIA	116	.194/.277/.299	2	3	70	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

ISO92

Chase%78

Speed76

BB%59

wOBA46

wRC+37

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsCarlos Franco (age 20) · Joey Curletta (age 19) · Roberto Perez (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 86 proj PA

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.190 / .270 / .284

PA86

HR1

K%31

BB%9

ISO96

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2036	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	180	142	38	11	0	6	32	54	4	17	5	268	416	472	888	204	381	30	18	394	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Miami	—	167	135	27	7	1	8	28	50	3	16	6	200	349	444	794	244	244	30	17	353	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	180	152	22	6	0	2	22	68	4	17	5	145	270	224	493	79	233	38	12	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	167	143	16	4	1	4	20	61	3	16	6	112	235	238	473	126	143	37	12	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	180	152	22	6	0	2	22	68	4	17	5	145	270	224	493	79	238	38	12	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	180	142	38	11	0	6	32	54	4	17	5	268	416	472	888	204	381	30	18	394	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	167	143	16	4	1	4	20	61	3	16	6	112	235	238	473	126	152	37	12	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	—	167	135	27	7	1	8	28	50	3	16	6	200	349	444	794	244	244	30	17	353	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	180	152	22	6	0	2	22	68	4	17	5	145	270	224	493	79	233	38	12	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	167	142	16	4	1	4	20	61	3	16	6	113	235	239	474	127	143	37	12	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	180	152	22	6	0	2	22	68	4	17	5	145	270	224	493	79	233	38	12	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	167	142	16	4	1	4	20	61	3	16	6	113	235	239	474	127	143	37	12	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	MIA	0%	277	248	48	9	2	4	24	85	3	7	1	191	272	287	559	96	271	31	9	257	60	-13	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	MIA	34%	139	124	25	5	1	2	12	42	2	3	1	197	278	301	579	104	274	30	9	265	65	-6	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	MIA	48%	239	213	42	8	1	4	21	71	3	6	1	201	283	312	596	111	276	30	9	271	70	-9	+1	+0	+3	+5	-0.0
2030	22	MLB MLE	MIA	54%	351	313	64	12	2	7	31	102	4	9	2	205	287	322	609	117	277	29	9	277	73	-11	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.1
2031	23	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	425	379	80	15	3	9	38	122	5	11	2	208	290	330	620	121	279	29	9	281	76	-12	+1	+0	+5	+9	0.3
2032	24	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	472	421	89	17	3	10	42	133	6	12	3	211	292	336	628	125	281	28	9	284	79	-12	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.5
2033	25	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	499	445	94	18	3	11	45	141	6	12	3	212	293	337	630	126	281	28	9	285	79	-12	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.5
2034	26	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	513	456	96	18	3	11	46	145	6	12	3	211	292	337	630	126	280	28	9	285	79	-13	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.5
2035	27	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	517	460	97	18	3	11	46	147	6	12	3	210	292	335	626	124	280	28	9	284	78	-13	+1	+0	+6	+11	0.5
2036	28	MLB MLE	MIA	59%	515	458	96	18	3	11	46	147	6	11	3	209	290	330	620	122	279	29	9	281	76	-14	+1	-1	+6	+11	0.3
2037	29	MLB MLE	MIA	61%	504	448	93	18	3	10	45	146	6	10	3	206	287	324	611	118	278	29	9	278	74	-16	+1	-1	+5	+11	0.0
2028	20	MLB CTX	MIA	34%	48	43	8	1	0	1	4	14	1	1	0	190	273	287	560	97	265	29	8	257	65	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	MIA	48%	116	104	21	4	1	2	10	34	1	3	1	194	277	299	576	104	267	29	9	264	70	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.0
2030	22	MLB CTX	MIA	54%	190	169	33	6	1	3	17	55	2	5	1	198	281	308	588	109	268	29	9	269	73	-6	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2031	23	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	241	214	43	8	1	5	22	69	3	6	1	201	283	315	599	114	270	29	9	273	76	-7	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2032	24	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	267	238	48	9	1	5	24	75	3	7	1	204	286	321	607	117	271	28	9	276	79	-7	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2033	25	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	282	251	52	9	2	6	25	80	4	7	2	204	286	322	608	118	271	28	9	276	79	-7	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2034	26	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	290	258	53	9	2	6	26	82	4	7	2	204	286	322	608	118	271	28	9	276	79	-7	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2035	27	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	287	256	52	9	2	6	26	81	3	7	2	203	285	320	605	117	271	28	9	275	78	-7	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.2
2036	28	MLB CTX	MIA	59%	304	270	55	10	2	6	27	87	4	7	2	202	283	316	599	114	270	29	9	273	76	-9	+1	-0	+3	+7	0.2
2037	29	MLB CTX	MIA	61%	307	273	55	10	2	6	27	89	4	6	2	200	281	310	591	111	269	29	9	269	74	-9	+0	-1	+3	+7	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2332	2076	420	75	14	46	208	666	29	56	14	202	284	318	602	116	272	29	9	273	73	-66	+6	-1	+25	+51	1.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	117	21	4	13	58	186	8	16	4	202	284	320	603	117	272	29	9	273	73	-18	+2	-0	+7	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	4607	4089	829	160	27	93	422	1351	58	133	35	203	286	323	610	121	276	29	9	276	73	-122	+10	-2	+46	+92	2.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	117	23	4	13	60	191	8	19	5	203	287	324	611	121	276	29	9	276	73	-19	+2	-0	+7	+14	0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Miami · 167 PAwOBA .346 → .209 (−137)K% 29.9% → 36.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.94%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	36.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.77%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.008	11.82%
HBP% /PA	1.80%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	1.27%
Singles /BIP	12.94%	÷1.000	×0.680	×0.950	×1.008	8.42%
Doubles /BIP	8.24%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.950	×1.008	4.73%
Triples /BIP	1.18%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.950	×1.008	0.68%
Home runs /BIP	9.41%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×1.008	4.46%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .346 → .209; ISO .244 → .121; BABIP .244 → .143. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Marlins · 180 PAwOBA .389 → .234 (−155)K% 30.0% → 37.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.00%	÷0.973	×1.220	—	—	37.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.78%	÷1.029	×0.700	—	×1.022	12.37%
HBP% /PA	2.22%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	1.59%
Singles /BIP	23.86%	÷0.955	×0.680	×0.950	×1.022	16.51%
Doubles /BIP	12.50%	÷1.073	×0.600	×0.950	×1.022	6.79%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.097	×0.600	×0.950	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.82%	÷1.383	×0.470	—	×1.022	2.37%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 177, 1B 91, 2B 115, 3B 119, K 95, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .389 → .234; ISO .204 → .085; BABIP .381 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Dick Schofield'83-'96 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,928 PA	7.4	4,928	56	120	227*	307*	330*	+52	+19	9.4	10.0
/162	664	8	16	+7.1	+2.5	1.3	pk7: 11
#3Gene Michael'66-'75 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,095 PA	4.7	3,095	15	22	233*	291*	316*	+32	+27	4.6	5.8
/162	664	3	5	+6.8	+5.8	1.0	pk7: 7
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#5Pokey Reese'97-'04 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,138 PA	4.7	3,138	44	144	238*	292*	339*	+19	+41	4.0	4.7
/162	664	9	30	+4.0	+8.7	0.8	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.6	2,417	49	58	209	287	330	+26	+18	3.1	3.0
/162	664	13	16	+7.1	+4.9	0.9	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Steven Herrera (OGILVIE)	19	35	45	60	60	190/270/284	95	271	1	2	31%	9%	60	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Carlos Franco 2012 · A	20	35→45	37→45	52→45	39	172/228/241	69	254	5	9	33%	6%	33	-3.6	203/261/274	71	290	4	8	29%	7%	53	-2.1	214/266/324	110	318	13	2	35%	6%	64	-1.1
✕Joey Curletta 2013 · A	19	39→49	36→55	48→45	36	181/240/242	62	306	3	5	40%	6%	38	-3.2	216/268/306	90	297	7	5	28%	6%	62	-1.4	208/273/366	158	289	20	4	34%	8%	79	-0.2
✕Roberto Perez 2008 · A	19	34	37→40	48→30	42	168/240/236	68	248	5	4	32%	7%	37	-3.3	168/239/242	74	220	6	3	25%	7%	38	-3.2	140/217/207	68	172	7	1	23%	8%	22	-1.6
✕Juan Kelly 2013 · A	19	37→47	35→45	47→45	48	176/243/232	56	227	2	6	23%	8%	36	-3.3	191/269/255	64	241	3	8	20%	9%	52	-2.2	215/276/341	126	296	11	3	30%	7%	73	-0.5
✕Jose Vicente 2015 · A	19	40→39	35→50	46→30	43	188/234/251	63	233	2	6	20%	5%	37	-3.3	197/250/284	87	251	6	4	23%	6%	51	-2.3	209/240/342	133	275	15	1	29%	4%	57	-0.7
✕Kelly Aponte 2011 · A	20	36	39→40	49→45	37	177/229/259	82	276	6	4	37%	6%	37	-3.3	195/266/282	87	265	7	6	27%	8%	57	-1.8	174/267/258	85	216	8	5	22%	10%	53	-0.8
✕Danny Contreras 2017 · A	19	35	35→40	49→50	48	167/241/230	63	226	2	8	26%	8%	36	-3.4	184/252/258	74	252	6	6	27%	8%	47	-2.6	192/231/274	82	255	14	2	30%	5%	39	-0.7
✕Erick Gonzalez 2011 · A	20	36	34→30	43→50	45	174/239/226	52	241	2	7	27%	7%	34	-3.5	196/288/262	66	246	2	10	19%	11%	61	-1.5	180/304/238	59	213	1	14	14%	15%	61	-0.6
✕Matt Dean 2013 · A	20	40→49	38→45	48→40	31	181/228/264	83	330	5	6	44%	5%	37	-3.3	217/259/325	108	336	9	5	36%	4%	63	-1.3	215/259/328	114	327	10	3	36%	4%	61	-1.0
✕Mike McDade 2009 · A	20	37→47	37→50	47→30	35	183/222/256	73	273	5	3	34%	4%	33	-3.6	222/263/353	131	317	15	2	33%	4%	72	-0.7	252/298/377	125	322	14	1	25%	5%	89	+0.4
✕Rainer Nunez 2021 · A	20	36→46	38→45	39→30	42	177/227/252	75	224	6	4	24%	5%	35	-3.4	223/269/348	125	291	14	2	28%	5%	73	-0.6	237/278/350	113	315	14	1	28%	5%	74	-0.5
✕Elehuris Montero 2017 · A	18	36→46	35→55	45→30	45	174/240/232	58	233	3	3	25%	7%	36	-3.4	213/267/327	114	280	10	3	27%	6%	68	-1.0	237/297/419	182	300	24	1	29%	6%	101	+1.1
✕David Medina 2009 · A	20	34→42	36→45	45→40	43	164/244/230	65	258	4	5	35%	9%	37	-3.3	201/260/298	97	309	8	4	35%	7%	58	-1.7	196/247/303	107	299	9	2	36%	6%	51	-1.2
✕Griffin Benson 2017 · A	19	39→25	36→45	47→30	38	189/238/247	58	274	3	4	31%	5%	37	-3.3	181/243/261	80	296	7	4	38%	6%	43	-2.8	153/228/256	102	262	11	2	43%	7%	35	-1.4
✕Manuel Nuno 2009 · A	20	31	37→40	46→40	44	154/241/219	65	242	5	4	36%	9%	34	-3.5	164/261/243	79	259	6	5	35%	10%	48	-2.5	114/246/190	77	177	6	4	36%	12%	33	-1.6
✕Jake Gatewood 2016 · A	20	36→40	40→50	43→45	31	174/218/262	87	302	8	7	43%	5%	33	-3.6	191/229/306	115	300	11	5	39%	4%	48	-2.5	180/226/307	128	284	15	5	41%	5%	46	-2.0
✕Joseph Miranda 2014 · A	19	36	37→40	47→40	42	174/230/247	73	240	3	5	28%	6%	34	-3.5	179/227/256	77	229	4	4	22%	6%	35	-3.4	161/205/234	74	196	4	2	20%	5%	22	-1.5
✕Daniel Arribas 2012 · A	19	38→40	35→40	39→45	43	179/241/234	55	243	2	5	26%	6%	36	-3.4	206/268/265	59	271	3	7	23%	7%	53	-2.1	210/274/266	56	281	3	7	25%	7%	55	-0.7
✕Dalton Smith 2014 · A	20	38	37→40	44→30	36	184/231/256	72	278	5	5	34%	5%	37	-3.3	193/249/279	86	277	7	5	31%	6%	50	-2.3	164/225/245	81	225	8	1	30%	6%	32	-1.3
✕Luis Pimentel 2009 · A	20	39	34→40	48→50	49	177/237/230	53	209	2	6	16%	7%	34	-3.5	199/254/275	76	232	6	7	16%	6%	50	-2.3	197/252/275	78	222	7	6	15%	5%	50	-0.8

Steven Herrera

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps