Luis Fonseca

P Kannapolis Cannon Ballers

Age 25 LHP 5'2" / 217 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	ROKDSL Blue Jays…	11	11	39	3.00	2.33	24.7%	4.9%	—	K 16.8% · BB 6.2% · FIP 3.46
2026	24	MIX2 levels	23	0	39	3.89	3.33	28.6%	9.7%	—	K 20.3% · BB 11.6% · FIP 4.75
2027PROJ	25	MLBCWS	22	0	23	4.59	4.59	21.0%	9.7%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBCWS	14	0	15	4.55	4.54	21.4%	9.6%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsSean Mellen (age 24) · Luis Perez (age 26) · Pedro Feliciano (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%21.0%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%11.3%

Proj IP23

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	11	11	39	162	40	8	2	100%	3.5	16.8%	6.2%	10.6%	1.8%	3.00	3.46	—
2025	23	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	11	11	39	162	40	8	2	100%	3.5	16.8%	6.2%	10.6%	1.8%	3.00	3.46	—
2025	23	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays Red	11	11	39	162	40	8	2	100%	3.5	24.7%	4.9%	19.8%	1.2%	3.00	2.33	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	39	154	44	15	4	0%	1.7	20.3%	11.6%	8.7%	3.4%	3.89	4.75	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	39	154	44	15	4	0%	1.7	20.3%	11.6%	8.7%	3.4%	3.89	4.75	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	39	154	44	15	4	0%	1.7	28.6%	9.7%	18.8%	2.6%	3.89	3.33	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CWS	22	0	23	97	20	9	3	0%	1.0	21.0%	9.7%	11.3%	3.0%	4.59	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	34	0	35	149	32	14	5	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.6%	11.9%	3.0%	4.55	4.54	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	14	0	15	63	14	6	2	0%	1.1	21.4%	9.6%	11.9%	3.0%	4.55	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	64	14	6	2	0%	1.1	21.4%	9.6%	11.9%	3.0%	4.55	4.16	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	185	79	26	0%	1.1	21.4%	9.6%	11.9%	3.0%	4.55	4.16	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		34	11	78	316	59	28	8	32%	2.3	18.5%	8.8%	9.7%	2.6%	3.45	4.08	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		87	28	200	807	149	71	21	32%	2.3	18.5%	8.8%	9.7%	2.6%	3.45	4.08	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Fonseca (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	21.0%	9.7%	3.0%	—	4.54	21.4%	11.9%	35	-0.05	—	—	—
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	83
Luis Perez L 2011 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	18.4%	8.8%	3.1%	.317	3.32	22.3%	13.2%	42	-1.03	3.32	173	82
Pedro Feliciano L 2003 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.7%	8.3%	2.3%	.309	3.52	20.2%	11.1%	79	-0.22	2.69	378	81
Harry Gustin L 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SU	3.91	20.7%	11.0%	2.1%	.331	4.33	22.9%	12.7%	109	+0.42	3.70	152	81
Paul Fry L 2017 · 4.66 FIP	25	SU	4.66	21.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.338	3.43	24.6%	14.6%	159	-1.23	1.78	560	80
Wesley Wright L 2010 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	19.6%	8.8%	4.2%	.310	3.38	23.9%	16.5%	106	-1.47	3.03	375	80
Braulio Lara L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	16.7%	8.7%	2.1%	.367	5.20	18.9%	3.9%	67	+1.24	3.96	118	79
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	79
Jake Kalish L 2016 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	17.8%	6.9%	2.6%	.231	3.90	17.0%	11.9%	352	+0.01	2.68	740	78
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	78
Mike Zagurski L 2007 · 4.10 FIP	24	SU	4.10	20.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	76
Jackson Lancaster L 2024 · 4.48 FIP	25	SU	4.48	24.0%	11.1%	3.6%	.355	5.36	18.3%	4.9%	93	+0.88	4.15	142	76
Williams Jerez L 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	17.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.294	3.81	24.0%	15.1%	127	-0.24	3.58	364	76
Pat Misch L 2007 · 3.51 FIP	25	SW	3.51	14.8%	5.7%	1.7%	.321	4.71	12.7%	7.3%	152	+1.20	3.50	265	76
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	76
Robby Ahlstrom L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	21.9%	11.6%	2.1%	.294	4.02	20.7%	11.1%	120	+0.13	3.79	332	76
Hector Mercado L 2000 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	21.7%	13.3%	3.3%	.270	4.22	22.9%	10.0%	111	-0.57	3.47	125	75
Aaron Fultz L 2000 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.7%	9.4%	2.7%	.294	3.88	19.4%	12.5%	180	-0.12	3.46	480	75
Brian Clark L 2018 · 3.78 FIP	25	SU	3.78	19.6%	8.2%	2.4%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	248	75
Ryan Sherriff L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	25	SU	4.27	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.317	3.28	18.8%	11.9%	135	-0.99	2.96	245	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	21.2%	9.6%	1.17	4.57
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*