Miguel Alvarez
P
ACL Padres
Age 21
RHP
5'11" / 165 lbs
ROK
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 20 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
K%22.3%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.0%
ROS IP20
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | DSL Padres Gold | 15 | 1 | 34 | 147 | 25 | 13 | 0 | 7% | 2.3 | 11.6% | 11.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 2.88 | 3.52 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | DSL Padres Gold | 15 | 1 | 34 | 147 | 25 | 13 | 0 | 7% | 2.3 | 17.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 0.0% | 2.88 | 2.78 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | ROK | DSL Padres Gold | 14 | 0 | 29 | 147 | 43 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 2.1 | 19.9% | 16.2% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 7.14 | 6.60 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SD | 19 | 0 | 20 | 86 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.3% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.36 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | SD | — | — | 49 | 233 | 62 | 27 | 8 | — | — | 26.7% | 11.6% | 15.1% | 3.6% | 5.99 | 5.68 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SD | 20 | 0 | 21 | 90 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.18 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SD | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.18 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 11 | 44 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 3.80 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 190 | 76 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 3.80 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 29 | 1 | 63 | 294 | 46 | 40 | 8 | 3% | 2.2 | 15.7% | 13.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.83 | 5.06 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 92 | 3 | 200 | 928 | 146 | 126 | 27 | 3% | 2.2 | 15.7% | 13.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.83 | 5.06 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Miguel Alvarez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 22.3% | 9.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.18 | 23.4% | 14.5% | 21 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Zurak R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.48 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.48 | 3.28 | 181 | 92 |
| Addison Russ R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.90 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .324 | 3.02 | 25.6% | 17.5% | 121 | -0.88 | 2.96 | 194 | 89 |
| Michael Gomez R 2027 · 3.38 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.38 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 3.78 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 286 | 89 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.04 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .278 | 5.78 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.74 | 4.04 | 104 | 87 |
| Chris Gau R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.76 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.23 | 29.5% | 23.5% | 37 | -1.53 | 2.88 | 211 | 87 |
| Kevin Coulter R 2027 · 3.27 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.27 | 21.0% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.31 | 16.1% | 7.6% | 92 | +1.04 | 3.27 | 128 | 86 |
| Gerlin Rosario R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.79 | 20.3% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .294 | 4.57 | 18.7% | 6.2% | 139 | +0.78 | 2.91 | 233 | 86 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.94 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.08 | 3.28 | 146 | 86 |
| Danny Dopico R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.98 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.11 | 3.00 | 318 | 86 |
| David Garner R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .282 | 4.65 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.94 | 154 | 85 |
| Heath Holder R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 85 |
| Sam Delaplane R 2027 · 3.18 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.18 | 24.6% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .342 | 3.15 | 32.7% | 23.4% | 128 | -0.03 | 3.11 | 194 | 85 |
| J.T. Hintzen R 2027 · 3.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.20 | 20.1% | 7.0% | 1.7% | .303 | 4.45 | 24.1% | 15.1% | 123 | +1.25 | 3.20 | 205 | 85 |
| Owen Holt R 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .258 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.63 | 3.89 | 145 | 84 |
| Jake Elliott R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.82 | 19.2% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .353 | 3.81 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 202 | -0.01 | 3.10 | 354 | 84 |
| Reece Karalus R 2027 · 4.74 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.74 | 18.5% | 8.6% | 3.8% | .298 | 4.94 | 14.8% | 4.1% | 103 | +0.20 | 4.74 | 149 | 84 |
| Nick Lockhart R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.65 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 3.9% | .275 | 4.67 | 16.1% | 5.5% | 43 | +0.02 | 4.65 | 140 | 84 |
| Juan Jimenez R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.45 | 18.2% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .327 | 5.51 | 17.2% | 2.6% | 80 | +2.06 | 3.45 | 115 | 83 |
| Tyler Bray R 2028 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.17 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.91 | 2.81 | 152 | 83 |
| Jeff Bain R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.94 | 19.7% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .339 | 4.13 | 19.1% | 10.7% | 274 | +0.19 | 3.37 | 475 | 83 |