Miguel Alvarez — OGILVIE

Miguel Alvarez P ACL Padres

Age 21 RHP 5'11" / 165 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.80

FIP4.80

K%19.0%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%8.4%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	15	1	34	147	25	13	0	7%	2.3	11.6%	11.1%	0.5%	0.0%	2.88	3.52	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	15	1	34	147	25	13	0	7%	2.3	11.6%	11.1%	0.5%	0.0%	2.88	3.52	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	15	1	34	147	25	13	0	7%	2.3	17.0%	8.8%	8.2%	0.0%	2.88	2.78	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	14	0	26	136	31	20	5	0%	1.9	17.7%	22.1%	-4.4%	5.8%	9.00	7.61	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	14	0	26	136	31	20	5	0%	1.9	17.7%	22.1%	-4.4%	5.8%	9.00	7.61	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	SD	11	0	18	96	25	17	4	0%	1.6	26.0%	17.7%	8.3%	4.2%	9.00	5.43	—
2026	21	A RAW	SD	2	0	5	25	4	2	1	0%	2.5	16.0%	8.0%	8.0%	4.0%	10.80	4.96	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	SD	1	0	3	15	2	1	0	0%	3.0	13.3%	6.7%	6.7%	0.0%	6.00	2.82	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SD	31	0	32	137	28	13	4	0%	1.0	20.6%	9.7%	10.9%	2.8%	4.61	4.52	+0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	SD	15	0	16	68	14	7	2	0%	1.1	20.6%	9.7%	10.9%	2.8%	4.61	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	67	14	7	2	0%	1.1	20.6%	9.7%	10.9%	2.8%	4.61	4.14	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	88	25	0%	1.1	20.6%	9.7%	10.9%	2.8%	4.61	4.14	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		29	1	60	283	41	46	8	3%	2.1	14.5%	16.4%	-1.9%	2.8%	5.52	5.49	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		96	3	200	938	136	154	26	3%	2.1	14.5%	16.4%	-1.9%	2.8%	5.52	5.49	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miguel Alvarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.80	19.0%	10.6%	2.9%	—	4.52	20.6%	10.9%	32	-0.28	—	—	—
Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.02	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.61	3.80	155	92
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	90
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	89
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	88
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	87
Audry Lugo R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	18.5%	11.4%	2.0%	.247	5.30	15.6%	-0.4%	77	+1.25	4.05	113	87
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	87
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	86
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	86
Reece Karalus R 2016 · 4.80 FIP	22	SU	4.80	18.5%	8.6%	4.0%	.298	4.81	14.8%	4.1%	103	+0.01	4.73	149	86
Ben Madison R 2019 · 3.72 FIP	21	SU	3.72	16.9%	10.0%	1.5%	.268	2.47	31.3%	15.4%	27	-1.25	2.47	183	86
Justin Lasko R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	22	SU	3.66	17.1%	8.6%	1.7%	.286	4.62	15.8%	8.1%	152	+0.96	3.66	173	86
Gerlin Rosario R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	21	SU	3.79	20.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.294	4.94	18.1%	5.4%	153	+1.15	3.02	248	85
Tyler Zombro R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	22	SU	4.37	14.6%	8.9%	2.5%	.295	2.67	15.7%	12.7%	134	-1.70	2.22	172	85
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	85
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	85
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	85
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	85
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	85
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	20.0%	10.1%	1.10	4.68
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84