Samuel Gonzalez

P Visalia Rawhide

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTFG #1041

ETA2028FG ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKDSL Arizona B…	6	2	6	18.00	5.10	23.1%	25.6%	—	K 23.1% · BB 25.6% · FIP 4.40
2025	20	ROKDSL Arizona R…	12	2	34	1.06	1.22	31.8%	4.7%	—	K 21.6% · BB 5.8% · FIP 2.01
2026	21	MIX2 levels	27	2	62	6.35	4.90	22.6%	6.9%	—	K 16.0% · BB 8.8% · FIP 6.80
2027PROJ	22	MLBARI	86	0	90	4.85	4.85	18.2%	7.9%	-0.3
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBARI	44	0	46	4.66	4.58	20.2%	7.5%	-0.0
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBARI	64	0	67	4.50	4.42	21.5%	7.3%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Command55FB velo45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsOsmer Morales (age 22) · Joseph King (age 22) · Jaycob Deese (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.85

FIP4.85

K%18.2%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%10.3%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4555

CMD4055

K†4555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	6	2	6	39	9	10	0	33%	1.0	23.1%	25.6%	-2.6%	0.0%	18.00	4.40	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	6	2	6	39	9	10	0	33%	1.0	23.1%	25.6%	-2.6%	0.0%	18.00	4.40	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	6	2	6	39	9	10	0	33%	1.0	23.1%	25.6%	-2.6%	0.0%	18.00	5.10	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	12	2	34	129	41	6	0	17%	2.8	21.6%	5.8%	15.8%	0.0%	1.06	2.01	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	12	2	34	129	41	6	0	17%	2.8	21.6%	5.8%	15.8%	0.0%	1.06	2.01	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	12	2	34	129	41	6	0	17%	2.8	31.8%	4.7%	27.1%	0.0%	1.06	1.22	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	2	62	288	65	20	14	7%	2.3	16.0%	8.8%	7.2%	7.2%	6.35	6.80	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	2	62	288	65	20	14	7%	2.3	16.0%	8.8%	7.2%	7.2%	6.35	6.80	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	2	62	288	65	20	14	7%	2.3	22.6%	6.9%	15.6%	4.9%	6.35	4.90	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	ARI	86	0	90	380	69	30	13	0%	1.0	18.2%	7.9%	10.3%	3.5%	4.85	4.85	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	ARI	89	0	93	394	80	30	13	0%	1.0	20.2%	7.5%	12.7%	3.4%	4.66	4.58	-0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	ARI	91	0	96	404	87	30	13	0%	1.1	21.5%	7.3%	14.2%	3.3%	4.50	4.42	+0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	ARI	92	0	97	409	91	29	13	0%	1.1	22.2%	7.2%	15.0%	3.3%	4.39	4.32	+0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	ARI	92	0	97	409	93	29	13	0%	1.1	22.6%	7.2%	15.4%	3.3%	4.33	4.28	+0.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	ARI	91	0	95	403	91	29	13	0%	1.0	22.6%	7.3%	15.3%	3.3%	4.32	4.32	+0.3
2033	28	MLB MLE	ARI	88	0	92	391	88	29	13	0%	1.1	22.5%	7.4%	15.1%	3.4%	4.37	4.41	+0.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	ARI	84	0	88	373	83	28	13	0%	1.1	22.2%	7.6%	14.6%	3.6%	4.47	4.54	+0.0
2035	30	MLB MLE	ARI	79	0	83	350	77	28	13	0%	1.1	21.9%	7.9%	14.0%	3.8%	4.62	4.71	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	ARI	44	0	46	194	39	15	7	0%	1.0	20.2%	7.5%	12.7%	3.4%	4.66	4.58	-0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	ARI	64	0	67	283	61	21	9	0%	1.0	21.5%	7.3%	14.2%	3.3%	4.50	4.42	+0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	ARI	75	0	79	334	74	24	11	0%	1.1	22.2%	7.2%	15.0%	3.3%	4.39	4.32	+0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	ARI	81	0	85	359	81	26	12	0%	1.0	22.6%	7.2%	15.4%	3.3%	4.33	4.28	+0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	ARI	82	0	86	363	82	26	12	0%	1.0	22.6%	7.3%	15.3%	3.3%	4.32	4.32	+0.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	ARI	81	0	85	359	81	27	12	0%	1.0	22.5%	7.4%	15.1%	3.4%	4.37	4.41	+0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	ARI	78	0	82	346	77	26	12	0%	1.1	22.2%	7.6%	14.6%	3.6%	4.47	4.54	+0.0
2035	30	MLB CTX	ARI	74	0	78	329	72	26	12	0%	1.1	21.9%	7.9%	14.0%	3.8%	4.62	4.71	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		578	0	607	2564	566	190	88	0%	1.1	22.1%	7.4%	14.7%	3.4%	4.44	4.06	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	63	29	0%	1.1	22.1%	7.4%	14.7%	3.4%	4.44	4.06	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		45	6	102	456	83	43	21	13%	2.3	18.2%	9.4%	8.8%	4.5%	5.28	5.24	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		88	12	200	891	162	84	40	13%	2.3	18.2%	9.4%	8.8%	4.5%	5.28	5.24	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Samuel Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.85	18.2%	7.9%	3.5%	—	4.44	21.3%	14.0%	286	-0.41	—	—	—
Osmer Morales R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	22	SU	4.24	17.8%	7.7%	3.0%	.319	4.55	19.2%	9.6%	345	+0.31	3.14	429	92
Joseph King R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SU	4.92	15.8%	6.7%	4.2%	.328	2.75	26.2%	21.9%	14	-2.17	2.75	106	89
Jaycob Deese R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	17.4%	6.8%	4.0%	.309	4.83	13.6%	4.4%	140	+0.15	3.28	208	89
David Perez R 2015 · 4.00 FIP	22	SW	4.00	21.1%	9.3%	2.7%	.292	5.19	15.6%	1.9%	67	+1.19	4.00	151	88
Andrew Bellatti R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.3%	8.8%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	278	86
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	85
Jordan DiValerio R 2021 · 4.50 FIP	23	SU	4.50	16.9%	5.6%	3.9%	.341	5.94	16.6%	11.1%	140	+1.44	4.50	213	85
Kaleb Fontenot R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	24	SU	4.48	20.7%	8.6%	3.7%	.264	3.71	14.7%	5.2%	69	-0.77	3.71	155	85
Matthew Gorst R 2017 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	15.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.269	3.89	16.6%	8.0%	130	-0.24	3.20	199	85
Peyton Stumbo R 2024 · 5.11 FIP	22	SU	5.11	19.0%	10.4%	4.2%	.326	4.93	15.6%	6.8%	211	-0.18	4.10	279	85
Jose Regalado R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	15.9%	5.3%	3.9%	.257	4.13	15.0%	6.3%	52	-0.44	4.13	140	84
Josh DeGraaf R 2016 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	15.3%	7.4%	2.1%	.310	4.23	16.4%	9.0%	226	+0.33	3.90	320	84
Tate Scioneaux R 2016 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	19.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.236	4.04	19.6%	13.5%	184	+0.32	3.12	321	84
Joan Gregorio R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	23	SW	4.29	18.0%	10.2%	2.6%	.269	4.18	21.1%	11.1%	208	-0.11	3.69	301	84
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	84
Reece Karalus R 2016 · 4.80 FIP	22	SU	4.80	18.5%	8.6%	4.0%	.298	4.81	14.8%	4.1%	103	+0.01	4.73	149	83
Adam Parks R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	22	SU	3.76	21.4%	7.3%	2.8%	.356	4.11	24.1%	16.7%	64	+0.35	3.41	137	83
Gary Glover R 2001 · 4.76 FIP	24	SW	4.76	14.7%	6.8%	3.7%	.255	4.76	11.9%	4.0%	219	-0.00	4.02	516	83
Eric Karch R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	16.0%	6.2%	2.3%	.324	4.70	20.3%	16.1%	35	+0.92	3.78	104	83
Tai Tiedemann R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	23	SU	3.87	17.5%	9.8%	1.8%	.305	5.78	9.8%	-0.2%	118	+1.91	3.87	190	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	92	21.6%	7.5%	1.33	4.50
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30
Matt Shoemaker ('21)	3.3	83	21.0%	6.3%	1.36	4.24
Matt Harvey ('21)	4.8	121	21.2%	6.7%	1.15	4.42
Craig Swan ('73-'84, 10 WAR*)	6.2	124	18.8%*	7.1%*	1.36*	4.46*
Ad Brennan ('10-'18, 6 WAR*)	3.4	113	18.9%*	6.9%*	1.31*	4.13*
Johnny Broaca ('34-'39, 6 WAR*)	3.4	135	20.0%*	7.5%*	1.29*	4.02*