John Smith III

LF St. Lucie Mets

Age 23 R/R A H -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	22	A+NYM	22	.444/.545/.722	1	1	177	—	.368/.455/.632
2026	22	ANYM	45	.244/.295/.463	2	3	64	—	.190/.227/.381
2027PROJ0% MLB	23	MLBNYM	177	.227/.287/.362	4	4	82	0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB	24	MLBNYM	51	.223/.283/.357	1	1	84	-0.0
2029PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBNYM	118	.224/.285/.360	3	3	86	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Z-Con%92

K%86

Whiff%84

Max EV76

Chase%63

BB%10

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsSean Bouchard (age 23) · Richie Shaffer (age 23) · Jordy Lara (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 80 proj PA

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.225 / .285 / .359

PA80

HR2

K%26

BB%6

ISO135

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	22	A+	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	22	18	8	2	0	1	2	4	2	1	0	444	545	722	1.268	278	538	18	9	547	177	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	45	41	10	3	0	2	2	7	1	3	1	244	295	463	759	220	242	16	4	326	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	22	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	22	19	7	2	0	1	1	5	2	1	0	368	455	632	1.086	263	449	23	5	430	177	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	45	42	8	2	0	2	1	10	1	3	1	190	227	381	608	190	210	22	2	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	67	60	15	4	0	2	3	15	3	4	1	250	318	417	735	167	295	22	4	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	67	59	18	5	0	3	4	11	3	4	1	305	379	542	921	237	326	16	6	399	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	67	61	15	4	0	2	3	15	3	4	1	246	318	410	728	164	288	22	4	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	67	61	15	4	0	2	3	15	3	4	1	246	318	410	728	164	288	22	4	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYM	0%	177	162	37	8	1	4	10	47	3	4	1	227	287	362	650	135	291	27	6	290	82	-4	+0	+0	-2	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	30%	170	155	35	7	1	4	10	45	3	4	1	229	290	367	657	138	291	26	6	293	84	-3	+0	+0	-2	+4	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	44%	268	244	57	12	1	7	17	70	5	6	1	230	291	370	661	140	292	26	6	295	86	-5	+1	+0	-3	+6	-0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYM	51%	337	307	71	15	2	8	21	87	6	7	1	231	293	372	664	141	291	26	6	296	87	-5	+1	+0	-4	+7	-0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYM	52%	373	340	78	16	2	9	24	96	6	8	2	230	293	371	664	140	290	26	6	296	87	-6	+1	+0	-4	+8	-0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYM	53%	394	359	83	17	2	10	26	102	6	7	1	229	292	367	659	138	289	26	7	294	85	-7	+1	-1	-4	+9	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	30%	51	47	10	2	0	1	3	13	1	1	0	223	283	357	640	134	282	25	6	286	84	-1	+0	+0	-1	+1	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	44%	118	108	25	5	1	3	7	31	2	3	1	224	285	360	645	136	282	26	6	288	86	-2	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYM	51%	171	155	35	7	1	4	11	44	3	4	1	224	286	362	648	137	282	26	6	290	87	-3	+0	+0	-2	+4	-0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYM	52%	195	177	40	8	1	5	13	50	3	4	1	224	287	361	647	137	281	26	7	289	87	-3	+0	+0	-2	+4	-0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYM	53%	210	191	42	8	1	5	14	54	3	4	1	222	286	357	643	135	280	26	7	288	85	-4	+0	-0	-2	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	745	678	152	30	4	18	48	192	12	16	4	224	287	360	647	136	284	26	6	289	86	-12	+2	-0	-8	+16	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	132	26	3	16	42	168	10	14	3	223	286	358	644	135	282	26	6	289	86	-11	+1	-0	-7	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	1689	1539	355	74	8	42	106	436	30	38	7	231	293	371	664	140	293	26	6	296	86	-28	+4	-1	-17	+35	-0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	136	28	3	16	41	168	12	15	3	230	293	368	661	139	292	26	6	296	86	-11	+2	-0	-7	+14	-0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Roman Mejias'55-'64 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,905 PA	2.9	1,905	54	22	248*	290*	401*	-14	-3	0.9	1.6
/162	664	19	8	-4.8	-1.2	0.3	pk7: 2
#4Carl Warwick'61-'66 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,616 PA	2.4	1,616	31	13	245*	309*	381*	-9	-1	1.4	1.4
/162	664	13	5	-3.6	-0.6	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.2	826	20	17	231	289	371	-9	-3	0.3	0.3
/162	664	16	14	-7.1	-2.4	0.2	pk7: 0
#6Ray Coleman'47-'52 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,902 PA	2.9	1,902	20	19	249*	297*	399*	-12	-1	-0.1	-0.1
/162	664	7	7	-4.4	-0.4	-0.0	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
John Smith III (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	225/285/359	134	291	2	2	26%	6%	82	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Sean Bouchard 2019 · A	23	39→48	44→55	48→50	38	198/249/313	115	283	11	13	33%	6%	57	-1.8	206/258/338	132	302	13	10	34%	6%	67	-1.1	233/330/427	194	302	20	16	28%	11%	113	+1.1
✕Richie Shaffer 2014 · A	23	42→40	44→55	51→40	38	209/256/329	121	285	11	6	30%	5%	63	-1.3	205/272/365	160	274	18	5	31%	8%	78	-0.3	197/270/360	164	261	19	4	31%	8%	75	-0.4
●Jordy Lara 2014 · A	23	40→50	46→55	51→40	39	207/249/336	129	263	13	3	27%	5%	63	-1.4	238/283/382	144	295	14	2	24%	5%	86	+0.3	241/288/388	147	295	14	0	23%	5%	87	+0.3
✕Brandon Bayardi 2015 · A	24	43	44→50	51→45	39	216/265/330	115	275	12	10	26%	4%	68	-1.0	222/279/353	131	300	14	6	30%	6%	78	-0.3	218/282/373	155	293	18	3	31%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Kyle Petty 2016 · A	25	45→49	42→45	53→50	39	218/262/322	103	301	10	11	30%	5%	63	-1.3	230/288/340	110	327	10	9	31%	7%	78	-0.3	233/296/346	112	333	11	8	31%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Zander Wiel 2017 · A	24	39→49	45→50	52→45	41	197/253/322	125	269	12	5	31%	7%	61	-1.5	211/265/350	139	284	14	6	30%	6%	72	-0.7	211/265/364	153	282	16	5	30%	6%	74	-0.5
✕Yermín Mercedes 2016 · A	23	42→52	46→50	47→45	40	214/250/343	130	253	14	5	22%	4%	64	-1.3	241/282/389	148	291	17	4	23%	5%	87	+0.4	242/292/392	150	282	20	3	21%	6%	92	+0.5
✕Hunter Morris 2011 · A	22	40→47	47→55	51→40	39	205/244/342	137	257	14	8	26%	4%	62	-1.4	226/261/388	162	278	17	5	25%	4%	79	-0.2	222/260/391	169	273	19	3	26%	4%	77	-0.3
✕Shay Whitcomb 2023 · AA	24	38→47	48→55	54→55	33	193/241/327	134	304	17	19	41%	5%	58	-1.7	213/267/373	160	286	22	18	33%	6%	78	-0.3	224/284/376	152	283	20	23	28%	7%	84	+0.1
●Kody Hinze 2010 · A	23	38→46	44→50	46→30	44	191/264/305	114	267	11	3	32%	8%	62	-1.4	218/288/361	143	297	17	2	31%	8%	84	+0.1	215/288/363	148	285	20	1	30%	9%	82	-0.0
✕Michael A. Taylor 2012 · A	21	40→50	44→55	49→60	36	200/244/319	120	279	11	12	32%	5%	57	-1.8	207/260/324	117	316	10	22	35%	6%	64	-1.3	240/297/382	142	309	19	14	28%	7%	92	+0.6
●Aristides Aquino 2016 · A	22	39→41	46→65	52→50	34	200/236/331	131	267	13	10	30%	3%	56	-1.9	202/244/351	149	270	16	8	31%	4%	64	-1.3	218/281/448	230	271	34	9	33%	7%	100	+0.8
✕Drew Weeks 2017 · A	24	43→49	41→50	48→50	41	213/255/308	95	272	8	13	25%	5%	58	-1.7	210/260/330	120	269	13	10	26%	5%	65	-1.2	207/261/339	132	258	15	9	25%	5%	65	-0.9
✕Rebel Ridling 2009 · A	23	35→45	51→50	49→40	33	192/240/342	150	271	20	6	37%	4%	61	-1.5	234/272/365	131	293	14	3	25%	5%	78	-0.3	242/281/377	135	298	15	3	24%	5%	82	+0.0
✕Romy Gonzalez 2019 · A	22	38→44	46→50	53→55	33	191/240/322	131	304	14	10	41%	5%	56	-1.9	200/255/314	114	307	11	12	36%	6%	60	-1.6	270/316/424	155	341	15	16	25%	5%	108	+0.9
✕Enmanuel Valdez 2021 · A	22	40→47	42→55	46→45	40	199/252/305	106	273	10	9	30%	6%	57	-1.8	221/280/394	173	275	22	8	27%	7%	88	+0.5	223/287/404	181	270	24	8	27%	8%	92	+0.5
✕Joe Mahoney 2010 · A	23	44→54	41→50	56→50	36	214/250/317	103	299	8	13	31%	4%	58	-1.7	246/284/379	133	320	13	10	26%	4%	85	+0.2	255/293/393	138	321	13	8	24%	4%	91	+0.5
✕Henry Wrigley 2011 · AA	24	43→48	44→50	46→45	39	216/245/338	122	258	12	6	22%	4%	61	-1.5	231/263/378	147	273	15	4	21%	4%	78	-0.3	232/263/388	157	269	17	3	21%	4%	77	-0.2
✕Jeff Flagg 2009 · A	23	38	43→45	54→40	43	191/257/306	115	265	11	10	31%	8%	59	-1.6	191/244/295	104	317	10	6	40%	6%	51	-2.2	171/221/272	101	290	11	3	43%	6%	35	-1.1
✕Josmar Cordero 2015 · A	23	41→39	43→45	46→45	38	208/250/316	108	259	12	8	25%	4%	58	-1.7	217/262/326	109	284	10	7	26%	4%	65	-1.2	221/261/329	108	285	9	3	25%	3%	63	-0.7

John Smith III

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps