Drew Weeks
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 24 | AACOL | 523 | .245/.315/.409 | 17 | 13 | 60 | — | .207/.261/.321 |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA/AA/ROK2 orgs | 352 | .248/.321/.422 | 11 | 6 | 57 | — | .198/.255/.319 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 548 | .275/.348/.498 | 21 | 9 | 82 | — | .222/.276/.390 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | — | 167 | 149 | 40 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 268 | 327 | 322 | 649 | 54 | 315 | 16 | 7 | 290 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A | Asheville Tourists | — | 381 | 335 | 97 | 24 | 5 | 6 | 34 | 48 | 5 | 26 | 6 | 290 | 364 | 445 | 808 | 155 | 317 | 13 | 9 | 354 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | — | 472 | 424 | 99 | 16 | 4 | 8 | 35 | 101 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 233 | 292 | 347 | 639 | 113 | 283 | 21 | 7 | 280 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 523 | 470 | 115 | 22 | 2 | 17 | 41 | 114 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 245 | 315 | 409 | 723 | 164 | 287 | 22 | 8 | 320 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 205 | 180 | 48 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 43 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 267 | 350 | 489 | 839 | 222 | 308 | 21 | 9 | 366 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 118 | 109 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 32 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 239 | 291 | 367 | 658 | 128 | 307 | 27 | 7 | 292 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 29 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 154 | 241 | 192 | 434 | 38 | 200 | 21 | 7 | 211 | -21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 442 | 396 | 113 | 23 | 7 | 20 | 31 | 74 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 285 | 347 | 530 | 877 | 245 | 304 | 17 | 7 | 376 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | INTL | Gigantes del Cibao | — | 106 | 88 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 227 | 352 | 352 | 705 | 125 | 284 | 19 | 15 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 167 | 153 | 37 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 33 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 242 | 284 | 288 | 572 | 46 | 288 | 20 | 4 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 381 | 348 | 83 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 63 | 5 | 26 | 6 | 239 | 291 | 348 | 639 | 109 | 265 | 17 | 6 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 472 | 436 | 86 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 141 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 197 | 237 | 296 | 533 | 99 | 254 | 30 | 5 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 523 | 483 | 100 | 18 | 2 | 11 | 28 | 132 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 207 | 261 | 321 | 582 | 114 | 257 | 25 | 5 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 205 | 185 | 39 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 57 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 211 | 281 | 362 | 643 | 151 | 270 | 28 | 6 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 118 | 112 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 196 | 231 | 286 | 516 | 89 | 275 | 32 | 4 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | ROK MLE | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 29 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 111 | 172 | 148 | 321 | 37 | 150 | 31 | 3 | 137 | -21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 442 | 405 | 90 | 16 | 5 | 14 | 23 | 100 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 222 | 276 | 390 | 666 | 168 | 250 | 23 | 5 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 548 | 501 | 119 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 96 | 7 | 29 | 8 | 238 | 287 | 327 | 615 | 90 | 279 | 18 | 5 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 548 | 484 | 137 | 29 | 5 | 7 | 45 | 74 | 7 | 29 | 8 | 283 | 353 | 407 | 760 | 124 | 316 | 14 | 8 | 334 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 472 | 436 | 86 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 141 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 197 | 237 | 296 | 533 | 99 | 265 | 30 | 5 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ RAW | Modesto Nuts | — | 472 | 424 | 99 | 16 | 4 | 8 | 35 | 101 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 233 | 292 | 347 | 639 | 113 | 283 | 21 | 7 | 280 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 523 | 483 | 100 | 18 | 2 | 11 | 28 | 132 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 207 | 261 | 321 | 582 | 114 | 259 | 25 | 5 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA RAW | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 523 | 470 | 115 | 22 | 2 | 17 | 41 | 114 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 245 | 315 | 409 | 723 | 164 | 287 | 22 | 8 | 320 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 352 | 324 | 64 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 103 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 198 | 255 | 318 | 573 | 120 | 264 | 29 | 5 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 352 | 315 | 78 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 28 | 81 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 248 | 321 | 422 | 743 | 175 | 298 | 23 | 8 | 328 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 548 | 504 | 111 | 20 | 6 | 17 | 28 | 124 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 220 | 272 | 385 | 657 | 165 | 256 | 23 | 5 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 548 | 484 | 133 | 29 | 8 | 21 | 47 | 94 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 275 | 348 | 498 | 846 | 223 | 300 | 17 | 9 | 366 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 548 | 508 | 119 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 96 | 7 | 29 | 8 | 234 | 287 | 323 | 610 | 89 | 272 | 18 | 5 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 472 | 446 | 86 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 141 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 193 | 237 | 289 | 527 | 96 | 254 | 30 | 5 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 523 | 483 | 100 | 18 | 2 | 11 | 28 | 132 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 207 | 261 | 321 | 582 | 114 | 257 | 25 | 5 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 352 | 324 | 64 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 103 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 198 | 255 | 318 | 573 | 120 | 262 | 29 | 5 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 548 | 507 | 111 | 20 | 6 | 17 | 28 | 124 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 219 | 272 | 383 | 655 | 164 | 250 | 23 | 5 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2443 | 2248 | 480 | 81 | 20 | 48 | 126 | 596 | 28 | 68 | 44 | 214 | 264 | 331 | 595 | 118 | 265 | 24 | 5 | 260 | 62 | -110 | -4 | +0 | -26 | +53 | -8.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 598 | 128 | 22 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 159 | 7 | 18 | 12 | 214 | 264 | 333 | 597 | 119 | 266 | 24 | 5 | 260 | 62 | -29 | -1 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -2.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 442 PAwOBA .369 → .282 (−87)K% 16.7% → 22.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.74% | ÷0.957 | ×1.290 | — | — | 22.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.01% | ÷0.974 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 5.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.58% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 1.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.57% | ÷0.974 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 17.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.071 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 5.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 1.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.21% | ÷1.136 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 4.34% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 95, 2B 114, 3B 130, K 91, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .369 → .282; ISO .245 → .167; BABIP .304 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 205 PAwOBA .358 → .283 (−74)K% 21.0% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.98% | ÷0.978 | ×1.290 | — | — | 27.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.78% | ÷1.024 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 6.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.44% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 2.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.44% | ÷1.034 | ×0.900 | ×1.006 | ×1.033 | 18.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.84% | ÷0.960 | ×0.810 | ×1.006 | ×1.033 | 5.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.92% | ÷0.973 | ×0.810 | ×1.006 | ×1.033 | 2.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.84% | ÷1.162 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 4.05% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 107, 2B 92, 3B 95, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .358 → .283; ISO .222 → .162; BABIP .308 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAHartford Yard Goats · 118 PAwOBA .287 → .229 (−57)K% 27.1% → 32.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.12% | ÷1.035 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.78% | ÷1.051 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.68% | ÷1.011 | ×0.970 | ×0.968 | ×0.998 | 22.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.90% | ÷1.081 | ×0.860 | ×0.968 | ×0.998 | 2.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.30% | ÷0.948 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | ×0.998 | 1.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.90% | ÷1.194 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 2.54% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 102, 2B 116, 3B 90, K 107, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .287 → .229; ISO .128 → .090; BABIP .307 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ROKGrand Junction Rockies · 29 PAwOBA .206 → .137 (−70)K% 20.7% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.69% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 29.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×0.945 | 3.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.45% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 2.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.945 | 11.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 3.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .206 → .137; ISO .038 → .024; BABIP .200 → .150. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAHartford Yard Goats · 523 PAwOBA .313 → .257 (−56)K% 21.8% → 25.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.80% | ÷1.051 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.65% | ÷1.017 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 5.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.34% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.79% | ÷1.026 | ×0.970 | ×0.971 | ×1.012 | 19.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.18% | ÷1.014 | ×0.860 | ×0.971 | ×1.012 | 5.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.56% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.971 | ×1.012 | 0.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.78% | ÷1.183 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 3.19% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 105, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 110, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .313 → .257; ISO .164 → .121; BABIP .287 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Modesto Nuts · 472 PAwOBA .274 → .232 (−43)K% 21.4% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.40% | ÷0.960 | ×1.340 | — | — | 29.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.78% | ÷1.006 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 4.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.98% | ÷0.990 | ×0.910 | ×1.001 | ×0.998 | 20.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.95% | ÷0.933 | ×0.820 | ×1.001 | ×0.998 | 4.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.24% | ÷1.150 | ×0.760 | ×1.001 | ×0.998 | 0.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.48% | ÷0.877 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 2.59% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 98, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 92, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .274 → .232; ISO .113 → .100; BABIP .283 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAsheville Tourists · 381 PAwOBA .349 → .277 (−72)K% 12.6% → 16.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.60% | ÷1.025 | ×1.340 | — | — | 16.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.66% | ÷1.033 | ×0.660 | — | — | 5.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.31% | — | ×0.770 | — | — | 1.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.60% | ÷0.991 | ×0.920 | ×0.978 | — | 19.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.36% | ÷1.267 | ×0.820 | ×0.978 | — | 5.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.74% | ÷0.936 | ×0.940 | ×0.978 | — | 1.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.09% | ÷1.172 | ×0.820 | — | — | 1.46% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 98, 2B 153, 3B 87, K 105, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .349 → .277; ISO .155 → .115; BABIP .317 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Modesto Nuts · 167 PAwOBA .283 → .255 (−29)K% 15.6% → 19.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.57% | ÷1.046 | ×1.340 | — | — | 19.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.99% | ÷1.043 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 4.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.64% | ÷1.014 | ×0.910 | ×1.014 | ×1.012 | 25.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.07% | ÷0.963 | ×0.820 | ×1.014 | ×1.012 | 3.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.760 | ×1.014 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.81% | ÷0.827 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 0.92% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 103, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 109, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .283 → .255; ISO .054 → .053; BABIP .315 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .