Derek Datil

OF Charleston RiverDogs

Age 21 L/L 6'2" / 160 lbs A HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	A/ROKTB	244	.260/.391/.321	1	11	55	—	.205/.299/.253
2026	20	ATB	178	.205/.299/.276	1	10	29	—	.174/.249/.236
2027PROJMLE	21	MLBTB	288	.192/.266/.261	2	6	51	-0.4
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBTB	53	.201/.274/.281	1	1	58	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Speed84

Whiff%34

BB%33

K%26

ISO18

wRC+17

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 96%

CompsJaden Rudd (age 21) · Yeniel Laboy (age 20) · Oswal Leones (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 103 proj PA

wRC+†51

AVG/OBP/SLG.191 / .264 / .259

PA103

HR1

K%31

BB%8

ISO69

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	41	35	7	0	0	0	6	8	0	0	0	200	317	200	517		259	20	15	257	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Rays	—	203	161	44	7	1	1	33	33	3	11	1	273	406	348	754	75	336	16	16	343	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	178	156	32	6	1	1	18	51	3	10	1	205	299	276	575	71	295	29	10	269	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	41	37	6	0	0	0	4	11	0	0	0	162	244	162	406		243	27	10	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	203	173	37	5	1	1	21	48	3	11	1	214	310	272	581	58	275	24	10	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	178	161	28	5	1	1	13	69	3	10	1	174	249	236	485	62	280	39	7	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	244	210	44	5	1	1	25	59	3	11	1	210	303	257	560	48	285	24	10	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	244	196	51	7	1	1	39	41	3	11	1	260	391	321	712	61	323	17	16	328	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	178	161	28	5	1	1	13	69	3	10	1	174	249	236	485	62	293	39	7	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	—	178	156	32	6	1	1	18	51	3	10	1	205	299	276	575	71	295	29	10	269	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	244	214	44	5	1	1	25	59	3	11	1	206	303	252	555	47	270	24	10	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	178	160	28	5	1	1	13	69	3	10	1	175	249	237	486	62	280	39	7	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	244	214	44	5	1	1	25	59	3	11	1	206	303	252	555	47	270	24	10	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	178	160	28	5	1	1	13	69	3	10	1	175	249	237	486	62	280	39	7	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	TB	0%	288	260	50	9	2	2	23	90	3	6	1	192	266	261	527	69	282	31	8	244	51	-17	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	TB	34%	155	139	28	5	1	2	13	47	2	3	1	198	272	280	553	82	284	30	8	254	58	-8	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	TB	34%	53	48	10	2	0	1	4	16	1	1	0	201	274	281	556	81	288	30	8	255	58	-3	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	53	48	10	2	0	1	4	16	1	1	0	208	283	312	596	104	290	30	8	255	48	-3	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	123	25	0	12	49	196	12	12	0	209	283	312	595	104	291	30	8	255	48	-32	+2	+0	-4	+14	-2.0
Career	—	MLE		—	680	603	118	18	4	5	59	207	9	26	3	196	277	264	541	68	286	30	9	240	48	-14	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	113	17	4	5	56	198	9	25	3	196	278	266	543	69	286	30	9	240	48	-35	+2	+0	-4	+14	-2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ACharleston RiverDogs · 178 PAwOBA .264 → .211 (−53)K% 28.7% → 39.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.65%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	38.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.11%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.015	7.08%
HBP% /PA	1.69%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	1.33%
Singles /BIP	22.86%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.040	×1.015	22.20%
Doubles /BIP	5.71%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.040	×1.015	5.01%
Triples /BIP	0.95%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.040	×1.015	0.91%
Home runs /BIP	0.95%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.015	0.77%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.

Result: wOBA .264 → .211; ISO .071 → .055; BABIP .295 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Rays · 203 PAwOBA .337 → .258 (−79)K% 16.3% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.26%	÷0.985	×1.440	—	—	23.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.26%	÷0.991	×0.620	—	×0.995	10.12%
HBP% /PA	1.48%	—	×0.720	—	×0.995	1.06%
Singles /BIP	27.34%	÷1.018	×0.820	×1.050	×0.995	23.00%
Doubles /BIP	5.47%	÷1.026	×0.720	×1.050	×0.995	4.01%
Triples /BIP	0.78%	÷1.150	×0.720	×1.050	×0.995	0.51%
Home runs /BIP	0.78%	÷0.809	×0.780	—	×0.995	0.75%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 62, 1B 104, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .337 → .258; ISO .075 → .060; BABIP .336 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ACharleston RiverDogs · 41 PAwOBA .251 → .207 (−44)K% 19.5% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.51%	÷1.006	×1.360	—	—	26.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.63%	÷0.985	×0.690	—	×1.030	10.56%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.93%	÷1.013	×0.920	—	×1.030	24.26%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.850	×0.830	—	×1.030	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.121	×0.910	—	×1.030	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.159	×0.800	—	×1.030	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 103, 2B 70, 3B 124, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .251 → .207; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .259 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Derek Datil (OGILVIE)	21	45	20	50	60	191/264/259	68	282	1	2	31%	8%	51	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jaden Rudd 2024 · A	21	39→36	37→30	52→50	48	179/290/250	70	276	4	14	32%	10%	61	-1.5	193/286/269	76	307	5	13	35%	9%	63	-1.4	155/260/202	47	253	3	16	35%	10%	36	-0.9
✕Yeniel Laboy 2024 · A	20	43	37→30	52→45	47	200/283/268	68	287	5	8	29%	9%	61	-1.5	199/274/263	64	285	4	7	29%	8%	55	-1.9	166/248/183	18	241	0	3	28%	9%	26	-1.3
✕Oswal Leones 2022 · A	21	45	35→30	46→50	45	211/269/277	65	291	2	7	27%	7%	55	-1.9	194/259/264	70	300	4	9	33%	8%	50	-2.3	151/225/205	55	241	3	13	36%	8%	22	-1.8
✕Terence Doston 2022 · A	21	46	36→30	49→55	46	213/302/278	65	305	4	15	29%	8%	70	-0.8	216/275/276	60	298	4	17	27%	6%	58	-1.7	210/263/252	42	280	4	23	25%	6%	45	-0.8
✕Sam McDonnell 2017 · A	21	43→42	37→40	48→45	48	202/274/285	83	277	3	9	26%	8%	60	-1.6	207/273/291	84	288	5	7	28%	8%	61	-1.5	199/268/277	79	272	6	6	27%	8%	53	-1.4
✕Michael Smith 2019 · A	22	46	36→30	48→50	44	214/276/278	64	287	3	9	25%	6%	59	-1.6	211/275/277	66	311	3	13	31%	7%	59	-1.7	213/282/273	60	303	3	17	28%	7%	58	-1.2
✕Aaron Shipman 2013 · A	21	41→39	35→30	44→50	49	190/271/250	60	279	2	9	30%	10%	52	-2.2	227/310/295	68	314	2	16	25%	10%	76	-0.4	246/336/306	60	332	1	21	23%	11%	84	+0.1
✕Connor Oliver 2015 · A	21	44→45	37→40	48→50	40	207/260/285	78	290	4	10	29%	6%	55	-2.0	189/244/266	77	280	4	11	32%	6%	44	-2.8	147/205/208	61	220	2	11	32%	7%	13	-2.4
✕Jean Ramirez 2022 · A	21	42→49	37→40	51→65	45	195/276/272	76	295	4	19	32%	9%	59	-1.7	213/276/293	80	301	7	27	29%	7%	63	-1.4	209/271/274	65	290	6	31	28%	7%	53	-1.0
✕Deivi Estrada 2022 · A	21	43	36→30	46→50	47	200/276/265	66	284	3	8	29%	9%	57	-1.8	184/240/252	68	328	3	8	42%	6%	40	-3.1	144/185/202	58	313	3	4	52%	4%	4	-1.2
✕Jordan Cheatham 2009 · A	21	45	36→40	48→50	43	207/271/274	67	309	4	13	32%	8%	56	-1.9	214/263/294	80	300	4	13	28%	6%	57	-1.8	215/260/301	86	293	4	14	27%	5%	55	-1.2
✕Rian Kiniry 2008 · A	21	44→46	35→30	49→55	41	205/258/261	56	288	2	10	28%	6%	48	-2.5	201/249/258	57	280	3	16	27%	5%	44	-2.8	212/261/275	63	285	4	22	26%	6%	49	-1.3
✕Connor Scott 2021 · A	21	42→46	38→45	49→50	40	200/251/285	85	289	5	13	31%	6%	51	-2.2	213/259/326	113	290	8	12	28%	6%	63	-1.3	204/251/318	113	275	8	13	28%	5%	56	-1.2
✕Ricardo Cespedes 2019 · A	21	44	37→30	51→45	37	212/248/282	70	288	4	10	28%	4%	49	-2.4	198/242/282	84	302	6	11	34%	5%	47	-2.6	151/186/215	64	240	3	14	37%	4%	7	-1.1
✕Joe Naranjo 2022 · A	21	43→48	38→40	50→45	41	200/265/272	71	308	5	7	35%	7%	54	-2.0	197/280/291	94	294	9	5	33%	10%	65	-1.2	183/272/272	89	271	9	3	33%	10%	55	-1.3
✕Dionis Paulino 2015 · A	21	40	36→40	51→50	48	189/267/252	64	257	3	15	26%	9%	51	-2.3	202/263/272	70	293	3	12	30%	7%	53	-2.1	206/248/291	84	301	9	11	33%	5%	47	-0.8
✕Brennan Gowens 2012 · A	22	41→49	38→30	47→50	46	196/263/270	74	266	6	9	27%	8%	53	-2.1	199/253/261	62	273	3	10	26%	6%	47	-2.6	198/251/252	55	270	2	12	26%	6%	40	-1.4
✕Willmer De La Cruz 2024 · A	21	42	36→30	50→55	46	191/277/255	64	298	3	15	34%	10%	55	-1.9	197/272/263	66	330	3	13	37%	9%	55	-2.0	162/255/195	33	292	0	21	40%	10%	30	-0.8
✕Shawon Dunston Jr. 2014 · A	21	45	39→40	50→55	43	217/270/304	87	294	5	7	27%	6%	62	-1.4	217/255/305	88	291	3	18	25%	4%	56	-1.9	214/252/303	89	281	4	23	24%	4%	54	-0.9
✕Rashad Brown 2015 · A	21	48	35→30	50→55	40	221/278/279	58	304	2	9	27%	5%	60	-1.6	230/275/286	56	307	1	14	24%	5%	59	-1.6	235/277/282	47	314	0	17	24%	5%	56	-1.0