Griffin Tobias — OGILVIE

Griffin Tobias P ACL Brewers

+0.4 WAR

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.8 · 2029

ERA4.31

FIP4.31

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.5%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%13.1%

IP59

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.8peak

2029

K†5060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	20	A	Carolina Mudcats	16	3	59	259	49	9	4	13.3%	4.1%	2.3%	4.91	3.74	+0.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	MIL	59	—	59	248	53	21	7	21.5%	8.5%	2.9%	4.31	4.31	+0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	MIL	11	11	62	260	59	21	7	22.6%	8.1%	2.8%	4.22	4.15	+0.6
2028	23	MLB	MIL	12	12	64	270	63	21	8	23.4%	7.9%	2.8%	4.12	4.04	+0.7
2029	24	MLB	MIL	12	12	66	277	66	21	8	23.9%	7.7%	2.8%	4.03	3.96	+0.8
2030	25	MLB	MIL	12	12	66	280	68	21	8	24.3%	7.6%	2.8%	3.96	3.91	+0.8
2031	26	MLB	MIL	12	12	66	280	69	21	8	24.5%	7.6%	2.8%	3.92	3.89	+0.8
2032	27	MLB	MIL	12	12	66	278	68	21	8	24.5%	7.6%	2.8%	3.91	3.90	+0.8
2033	28	MLB	MIL	12	12	65	274	67	21	8	24.5%	7.7%	2.8%	3.92	3.93	+0.8
2034	29	MLB	MIL	12	12	63	267	65	21	8	24.3%	7.8%	2.9%	3.95	3.97	+0.7
2035	30	MLB	MIL	11	11	61	259	63	20	8	24.1%	7.9%	2.9%	4.00	4.04	+0.6
2036	31	MLB	MIL	59	—	59	250	60	20	7	23.9%	8.0%	3.0%	4.07	4.11	+0.6
2037	32	MLB	MIL	57	—	57	240	57	20	7	23.6%	8.1%	3.1%	4.15	4.20	+0.5
2038	33	MLB	MIL	54	—	54	229	53	19	7	23.3%	8.3%	3.2%	4.24	4.30	+0.4
2039	34	MLB	MIL	52	—	52	218	50	19	7	23.0%	8.5%	3.3%	4.34	4.41	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			16	3	59	259	35	11	6	13.3%	4.1%	2.3%	4.91	3.74	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—			55	10	200	883	119	38	20	13.3%	4.1%	2.3%	4.91	3.74	+3.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Griffin Tobias (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.31	21.5%	8.5%	2.9%	—	4.05	23.3%	15.4%	191	-0.26	—	—	—
David Garner R 2027 · 3.81 FIP	22	SW	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	91
Peyton Remy R 2026 · 3.57 FIP	21	SW	3.57	19.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.280	4.71	16.3%	5.2%	140	+1.14	3.57	286	91
RJ Petit R 2027 · 4.50 FIP	22	SW	4.50	20.3%	8.4%	3.7%	.270	3.45	22.5%	12.8%	177	-1.05	3.09	231	91
Pat Gallagher R 2028 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	21.9%	8.3%	2.9%	.284	3.50	18.7%	9.0%	167	-0.40	3.06	230	91
Kyle Zimmer R 2028 · 3.71 FIP	23	SW	3.71	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.53	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.82	2.08	276	90
Alexis Rivero R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	21	SW	3.86	19.3%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	5.05	14.0%	3.4%	143	+1.19	3.86	280	90
Cody Laweryson R 2028 · 4.03 FIP	23	SW	4.03	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.52	21.5%	12.4%	178	-0.51	2.48	281	90
John Russell R 2027 · 3.98 FIP	22	SW	3.98	22.5%	8.5%	3.1%	.232	4.78	24.0%	11.2%	60	+0.80	3.92	158	89
Brendan Collins R 2027 · 3.69 FIP	22	SW	3.69	21.8%	10.3%	2.1%	.294	3.85	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.16	3.69	122	89
Sam Bragg R 2027 · 3.26 FIP	22	SW	3.26	23.2%	8.6%	1.9%	.306	3.98	15.7%	8.5%	203	+0.72	3.26	277	89
Edward Escoboza R 2026 · 3.89 FIP	21	SW	3.89	21.9%	7.9%	3.0%	.321	5.42	14.9%	9.4%	36	+1.53	3.44	213	89
Tanner Burns R 2027 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	22.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.292	5.40	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.02	4.38	355	89
Yimmi Brasoban R 2026 · 3.90 FIP	21	SW	3.90	20.4%	10.2%	2.3%	.261	4.36	16.7%	5.3%	78	+0.46	3.33	149	89
Parker Curry R 2028 · 3.75 FIP	23	SW	3.75	22.5%	8.2%	2.8%	.341	4.60	18.6%	11.6%	193	+0.85	3.75	256	88
Luke Eubank R 2026 · 3.21 FIP	21	SW	3.21	19.9%	6.7%	1.7%	.283	3.67	18.1%	8.7%	94	+0.46	3.18	157	88
Adam Parks R 2027 · 3.77 FIP	22	SW	3.77	21.4%	7.3%	2.8%	.356	4.10	24.1%	16.7%	64	+0.33	3.45	137	88
Curtis Taylor R 2027 · 3.97 FIP	22	SW	3.97	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.57	2.58	408	88
José López R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	21	SW	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.79	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.25	3.12	543	88
Johnny Barbato R 2028 · 3.59 FIP	23	SW	3.59	21.3%	9.4%	2.0%	.284	4.24	21.6%	11.4%	167	+0.65	2.57	304	88
Alex Klonowski R 2028 · 3.58 FIP	23	SW	3.58	21.8%	9.4%	2.1%	.331	4.70	14.3%	7.1%	413	+1.12	3.58	539	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.7	$4M	+$2M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.6	$3M	+$1M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$6M		$18M	+$12M