Griffin Tobias — OGILVIE

Griffin Tobias P ACL Brewers

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.6 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 41 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.19

FIP4.19

K%17.6%

BB%4.9%

K-BB%12.7%

ROS IP41

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$1M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	3	59	259	49	9	4	19%	3.7	13.3%	4.1%	9.2%	2.2%	4.91	3.72	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	3	59	259	49	9	4	19%	3.7	13.3%	4.1%	9.2%	2.2%	4.91	3.72	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	3	59	259	49	9	4	19%	3.7	18.9%	3.5%	15.4%	1.5%	4.91	2.78	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	3	1	5	22	4	1	0	33%	1.7	—	—	—	—	1.80	—	—
YTD	21	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	3	1	5	22	4	1	0	33%	1.7	—	—	—	—	1.80	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	MIL	3	1	5	22	4	1	0	33%	1.7	18.2%	4.5%	13.6%	0.0%	1.80	2.14	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	MIL	53	0	55	234	46	12	7	0%	1.0	19.6%	5.0%	14.7%	2.8%	4.08	4.00	+0.4
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIL	55	0	58	243	51	12	7	0%	1.0	20.8%	5.0%	15.9%	2.8%	3.97	3.88	+0.5
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIL	56	0	59	249	54	12	7	0%	1.1	21.5%	5.0%	16.6%	2.8%	3.88	3.81	+0.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIL	57	0	60	252	55	12	7	0%	1.0	21.9%	4.9%	17.0%	2.8%	3.82	3.77	+0.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIL	57	0	60	252	56	12	7	0%	1.0	22.1%	4.9%	17.2%	2.8%	3.78	3.75	+0.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIL	56	0	59	248	55	12	7	0%	1.0	22.1%	5.0%	17.2%	2.8%	3.78	3.78	+0.5
2027	22	MLB CTX	MIL	26	0	27	114	22	6	3	0%	1.0	19.6%	5.0%	14.7%	3.0%	4.16	4.08	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIL	40	0	42	177	37	9	5	0%	1.1	20.8%	5.0%	15.9%	2.9%	4.05	3.96	+0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIL	47	0	49	207	45	10	6	0%	1.0	21.5%	5.0%	16.6%	2.9%	3.96	3.89	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIL	50	0	53	224	49	11	6	0%	1.1	21.9%	4.9%	17.0%	2.9%	3.90	3.85	+0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIL	51	0	54	228	50	11	7	0%	1.1	22.1%	4.9%	17.2%	2.9%	3.86	3.83	+0.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIL	51	0	54	228	50	11	7	0%	1.1	22.1%	5.0%	17.2%	3.0%	3.86	3.86	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		266	0	279	1180	254	58	34	0%	1.1	21.6%	4.9%	16.6%	2.9%	3.94	3.51	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	182	42	24	0%	1.1	21.6%	4.9%	16.6%	2.9%	3.94	3.51	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		19	4	64	281	39	12	6	21%	3.4	13.7%	4.2%	9.5%	2.1%	4.66	3.60	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	13	200	883	121	37	18	21%	3.4	13.7%	4.2%	9.5%	2.1%	4.66	3.60	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Griffin Tobias (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.19	17.6%	4.9%	2.9%	—	3.89	20.7%	15.7%	172	-0.30	—	—	—
Scooter Hightower R 2015 · 3.23 FIP	21	SW	3.23	18.7%	4.4%	2.1%	.304	2.86	19.6%	14.6%	68	-0.37	2.86	160	90
Clark Beeker R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	23	SW	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.35	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.31	4.04	287	85
Christian Taugner R 2017 · 3.07 FIP	22	SW	3.07	17.0%	5.0%	1.4%	.364	4.20	12.4%	6.1%	260	+1.13	3.07	305	84
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	84
Jose Alberto Rivera R 2018 · 4.24 FIP	21	SW	4.24	17.0%	4.8%	3.6%	.243	3.69	22.3%	8.2%	87	-0.55	3.39	163	82
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	82
Jose Romero R 2023 · 3.24 FIP	19	SW	3.24	21.7%	5.2%	2.4%	.267	4.37	13.6%	5.6%	193	+1.13	3.24	235	82
Mark Washington R 2017 · 3.11 FIP	21	SW	3.11	16.8%	5.7%	1.3%	.329	4.17	16.2%	3.4%	79	+1.06	3.11	271	82
Simon Mathews R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	21	SW	4.09	17.7%	7.5%	2.8%	.326	4.42	16.0%	5.9%	167	+0.33	4.09	215	82
Chris Murphy R 2015 · 3.24 FIP	22	SW	3.24	15.2%	3.3%	1.8%	.304	4.96	9.5%	3.7%	95	+1.72	3.24	115	82
Gabe Friese R 2017 · 3.64 FIP	22	SW	3.64	15.8%	3.0%	2.7%	.282	4.71	10.3%	3.2%	61	+1.07	3.64	115	82
Geno Encina R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	21	SW	4.22	16.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.325	7.09	12.0%	2.3%	76	+2.87	4.22	200	81
Ian Koenig R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	22	SU	3.69	20.0%	6.6%	2.6%	.310	5.39	15.1%	7.5%	284	+1.70	3.69	303	81
Jeremy Walker R 2016 · 3.49 FIP	21	SW	3.49	14.5%	5.8%	1.6%	.302	3.75	14.3%	7.8%	355	+0.26	2.45	519	81
Austin Hutchison R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	22	SW	4.05	19.7%	6.0%	3.4%	.340	4.55	18.7%	9.2%	213	+0.50	3.51	235	81
Marc Brakeman R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	22	SW	3.85	17.9%	7.1%	2.5%	.319	4.92	18.6%	5.0%	83	+1.07	3.85	156	81
Jose Montero R 2023 · 4.32 FIP	20	SW	4.32	16.8%	6.3%	3.4%	.393	4.45	15.5%	3.4%	300	+0.13	3.72	375	80
Jose Gutierrez R 2023 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	16.3%	5.3%	2.2%	.360	4.36	15.1%	4.8%	181	+0.77	3.34	214	80
Redinson Gomez R 2023 · 3.21 FIP	19	SW	3.21	18.4%	6.2%	1.6%	.273	4.33	17.9%	2.8%	39	+1.12	3.21	157	80
Cesar Ventura R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	21	SW	4.54	13.0%	5.8%	3.3%	.329	5.30	13.0%	0.7%	39	+0.76	3.79	135	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	56	21.0%	4.9%	1.08	3.91
Craig Stammen ('22)	2.0	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Adam Cimber ('24)	1.6	52	18.3%	6.6%	0.75	3.75
Brandon Kintzler ('21)	1.5	50	16.2%	6.3%	0.91	3.57
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61