Griffin Tobias
P
ACL Brewers
Age 21
RHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.4 · 2031
2026 ROS PROJECTION5 act + 41 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.31
FIP4.31
K%21.5%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%13.1%
ROS IP41
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 3 | 59 | 259 | 49 | 9 | 4 | 19% | 3.7 | 13.3% | 4.1% | 9.2% | 2.3% | 4.91 | 3.76 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 3 | 59 | 259 | 49 | 9 | 4 | 19% | 3.7 | 18.9% | 3.5% | 15.4% | 1.5% | 4.91 | 2.78 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | ROK | ACL Brewers | 3 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 33% | 1.7 | — | — | — | — | 1.80 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | MIL | 39 | 0 | 41 | 174 | 37 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 8.5% | 13.1% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.5% | 8.5% | 13.1% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.28 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 46 | 196 | 41 | 16 | 5 | — | — | 21.1% | 8.0% | 13.1% | 2.6% | 4.04 | 3.84 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | MIL | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 41 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 8.1% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.15 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | MIL | 43 | 0 | 45 | 189 | 44 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 7.9% | 15.5% | 2.8% | 4.12 | 4.04 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 46 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 7.7% | 16.2% | 2.8% | 4.03 | 3.96 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 44 | 0 | 46 | 196 | 48 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 7.6% | 16.6% | 2.8% | 3.96 | 3.91 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 44 | 0 | 46 | 196 | 48 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.5% | 7.6% | 16.9% | 2.8% | 3.92 | 3.89 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 44 | 0 | 46 | 193 | 47 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 7.7% | 16.8% | 2.8% | 3.93 | 3.93 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 42 | 0 | 44 | 187 | 46 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 7.8% | 16.5% | 2.9% | 3.98 | 4.02 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | MIL | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 8.1% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.12 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | MIL | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 33 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 7.9% | 15.5% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 4.01 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 38 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 7.7% | 16.2% | 2.7% | 4.00 | 3.93 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 42 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 7.6% | 16.6% | 2.7% | 3.93 | 3.88 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 43 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.5% | 7.6% | 16.9% | 2.7% | 3.89 | 3.86 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 43 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.5% | 7.7% | 16.8% | 2.8% | 3.90 | 3.90 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 43 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 7.8% | 16.5% | 2.9% | 3.95 | 3.99 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 247 | 0 | 259 | 1096 | 264 | 85 | 30 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 7.8% | 16.3% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 3.56 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 66 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 7.8% | 16.3% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 3.56 | +4.3 | ||
| Career | — | 19 | 4 | 64 | 281 | 39 | 12 | 6 | 21% | 3.4 | 13.7% | 4.2% | 9.5% | 2.1% | 4.66 | 3.63 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 13 | 200 | 883 | 121 | 37 | 19 | 21% | 3.4 | 13.7% | 4.2% | 9.5% | 2.1% | 4.66 | 3.63 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Griffin Tobias (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.31 | 21.5% | 8.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.05 | 23.3% | 15.4% | 134 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Clark Beeker R 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.04 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .270 | 4.35 | 11.6% | 6.4% | 244 | +0.31 | 4.04 | 287 | 88 |
| Nick Gallagher R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.14 | 17.2% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .310 | 4.49 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 90 | +0.35 | 4.09 | 196 | 84 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 84 |
| Simon Mathews R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.09 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .326 | 4.51 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 167 | +0.42 | 4.09 | 215 | 83 |
| Edward Escoboza R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.89 | 21.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .321 | 5.42 | 14.9% | 9.4% | 36 | +1.53 | 3.44 | 213 | 83 |
| Inohan Paniagua R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.78 | 23.3% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .298 | 4.27 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 297 | +0.49 | 3.78 | 473 | 82 |
| David Perez R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.93 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .292 | 5.13 | 15.6% | 1.9% | 67 | +1.20 | 3.93 | 151 | 82 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.48 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.48 | 3.28 | 181 | 82 |
| Ben Anderson R 2028 · 5.05 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.05 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 4.4% | .309 | 3.93 | 16.2% | 7.7% | 147 | -1.12 | 3.71 | 361 | 81 |
| Ian Koenig R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.55 | 20.0% | 6.6% | 2.4% | .310 | 5.84 | 14.4% | 5.9% | 225 | +2.29 | 3.55 | 244 | 81 |
| Marc Brakeman R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.85 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .319 | 4.99 | 18.6% | 5.0% | 83 | +1.14 | 3.85 | 156 | 81 |
| Dawil Almonte R 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.60 | 17.4% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .271 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 3.3% | 97 | +0.84 | 3.60 | 138 | 81 |
| Cole Stapler R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.83 | 19.2% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .266 | 3.29 | 18.1% | 13.2% | 220 | -0.54 | 3.28 | 255 | 80 |
| Brendan Collins R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.60 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.25 | 3.60 | 122 | 80 |
| J.T. Hintzen R 2027 · 3.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.20 | 20.1% | 7.0% | 1.7% | .303 | 4.45 | 24.1% | 15.1% | 123 | +1.25 | 3.20 | 205 | 80 |
| Brandon Komar R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.63 | 17.7% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | 5.21 | 16.7% | 5.7% | 198 | +0.58 | 3.00 | 538 | 79 |
| Scooter Hightower R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.23 | 18.7% | 4.4% | 2.1% | .304 | 2.89 | 19.6% | 14.6% | 68 | -0.34 | 2.89 | 160 | 79 |
| Franco Aleman R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.93 | 21.3% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .391 | 3.00 | 29.2% | 18.4% | 114 | -0.93 | 0.86 | 198 | 79 |
| Joey Matulovich R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.22 | 22.8% | 12.0% | 1.0% | .317 | 5.29 | 21.3% | 8.1% | 107 | +2.07 | 3.22 | 201 | 79 |
| Geno Encina R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.22 | 16.5% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .325 | 7.60 | 12.0% | 2.3% | 76 | +3.38 | 4.22 | 200 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 45 | 23.7% | 7.9% | 1.09 | 4.05 |
| Nick Wittgren ('23) | 8 | 41 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 1.15 | 4.04 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |
| Joakim Soria ('21) | 7 | 54 | 26.1% | 7.8% | 0.92 | 3.65 |
| Trevor May ('23) | 8 | 51 | 27.6% | 8.3% | 1.18 | 3.83 |
| Sergio Romo ('21) | 7 | 50 | 26.3% | 7.0% | 1.20 | 3.70 |