Efrain Cubilla — OGILVIE

Efrain Cubilla P ACL Rockies

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.53

FIP4.53

K%18.5%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%10.4%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	9	7	35	148	18	7	2	78%	3.9	8.3%	5.9%	2.4%	1.6%	4.33	4.02	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	9	7	35	148	18	7	2	78%	3.9	8.3%	5.9%	2.4%	1.6%	4.33	4.02	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	9	7	35	148	18	7	2	78%	3.9	12.2%	4.7%	7.4%	1.4%	4.33	3.41	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	14	0	23	96	19	7	0	0%	1.6	13.5%	9.1%	4.3%	0.0%	5.16	3.12	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	14	0	23	96	19	7	0	0%	1.6	13.5%	9.1%	4.3%	0.0%	5.16	3.12	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	14	0	23	96	19	7	0	0%	1.6	19.8%	7.3%	12.5%	0.0%	5.16	2.35	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	18	3	40	177	35	18	4	17%	2.2	13.4%	12.7%	0.7%	3.2%	5.67	5.31	—
YTD	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	18	3	40	177	35	18	4	17%	2.2	13.4%	12.7%	0.7%	3.2%	5.67	5.31	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	COL	18	3	40	177	35	18	4	17%	2.2	19.8%	10.2%	9.6%	2.3%	5.67	3.96	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	COL	39	0	41	172	35	13	5	0%	1.0	20.2%	7.8%	12.5%	2.8%	4.39	4.32	+0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	COL	19	0	20	84	17	7	2	0%	1.1	20.2%	7.8%	12.5%	2.8%	4.39	4.32	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		19	0	20	84	17	7	2	0%	1.1	20.2%	7.8%	12.5%	2.8%	4.39	3.94	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	170	70	20	0%	1.1	20.2%	7.8%	12.5%	2.8%	4.39	3.94	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		41	10	98	421	49	40	8	24%	2.4	11.6%	9.5%	2.1%	1.9%	5.07	4.36	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		84	20	200	862	100	82	16	24%	2.4	11.6%	9.5%	2.1%	1.9%	5.07	4.36	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Efrain Cubilla (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	18.5%	8.0%	2.9%	—	4.32	20.2%	12.5%	41	-0.21	—	—	—
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	88
Jake Elliott R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	21	SU	3.82	19.2%	7.1%	2.6%	.353	3.81	18.1%	10.0%	202	-0.01	2.91	354	87
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2019 · 4.59 FIP	20	SW	4.59	17.4%	7.4%	3.7%	.360	5.64	16.1%	3.7%	88	+1.05	4.59	120	87
Justin Lasko R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	22	SU	3.66	17.1%	8.6%	1.7%	.286	4.62	15.8%	8.1%	152	+0.96	3.66	173	86
Austin Hutchison R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	22	SW	4.05	19.7%	6.0%	3.4%	.340	4.55	18.7%	9.2%	213	+0.50	3.51	235	85
Connor Eller R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	22	SU	4.35	16.7%	7.5%	3.1%	.222	4.55	10.8%	-1.2%	136	+0.20	3.79	170	85
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	85
Davis Martin R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SW	3.59	16.3%	8.2%	1.5%	.317	4.71	18.9%	10.7%	233	+1.12	3.56	738	84
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	83
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	83
Juan Jimenez R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	21	SU	3.45	18.2%	7.2%	1.8%	.327	5.51	17.2%	2.6%	80	+2.06	3.45	115	83
Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.02	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.61	3.80	155	83
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	82
Ismael Cabrera R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	21	SU	3.56	19.0%	7.4%	2.1%	.250	5.19	17.4%	6.6%	117	+1.63	3.56	133	82
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	82
Reece Karalus R 2016 · 4.80 FIP	22	SU	4.80	18.5%	8.6%	4.0%	.298	4.81	14.8%	4.1%	103	+0.01	4.73	149	82
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	82
Fred Villarreal R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SU	3.93	17.6%	6.8%	2.6%	.331	3.64	14.1%	3.5%	63	-0.29	3.64	114	82
Luis F. Castillo R 2016 · 4.51 FIP	21	SU	4.51	16.7%	10.5%	2.7%	.337	3.50	19.7%	12.3%	96	-1.01	2.95	254	81
Fraynel Nova R 2023 · 3.38 FIP	21	SU	3.38	17.2%	6.6%	1.6%	.308	4.38	14.3%	3.3%	86	+1.00	3.38	129	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	19.7%	7.8%	1.11	4.43
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19