Brandon Downer — OGILVIE

Brandon Downer P Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.64

FIP4.64

K%18.4%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%9.3%

ROS IP25

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	7	42	175	35	13	2	70%	4.2	14.2%	9.0%	5.2%	1.6%	3.67	3.92	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	7	42	175	35	13	2	70%	4.2	14.2%	9.0%	5.2%	1.6%	3.67	3.92	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	7	42	175	35	13	2	70%	4.2	20.0%	7.4%	12.6%	1.1%	3.67	2.98	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	30	2	66	312	52	37	10	7%	2.2	12.7%	13.4%	-0.8%	3.7%	6.95	5.79	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	30	2	66	312	52	37	10	7%	2.2	12.7%	13.4%	-0.8%	3.7%	6.95	5.79	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	BAL	14	2	33	154	29	16	2	14%	2.3	18.8%	10.4%	8.4%	1.3%	7.44	3.54	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	BAL	15	0	31	149	22	19	7	0%	2.1	14.8%	12.8%	2.0%	4.7%	6.61	6.05	—
2026	23	AA RAW	BAL	1	0	2	9	1	2	1	0%	2.0	11.1%	22.2%	-11.1%	11.1%	4.50	11.08	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	BAL	63	0	66	280	55	25	8	0%	1.1	19.8%	8.8%	11.1%	2.8%	4.53	4.47	+0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	64	0	67	283	58	24	8	0%	1.0	20.6%	8.6%	12.0%	2.8%	4.44	4.39	+0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	BAL	64	0	67	283	59	24	8	0%	1.0	21.0%	8.6%	12.4%	2.8%	4.39	4.36	+0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	BAL	63	0	66	279	59	24	8	0%	1.0	21.1%	8.7%	12.4%	2.9%	4.39	4.39	+0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	BAL	61	0	64	270	57	24	8	0%	1.0	20.9%	8.8%	12.1%	3.0%	4.44	4.48	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	BAL	27	0	28	118	23	10	3	0%	1.0	19.8%	8.8%	11.1%	2.8%	4.53	4.47	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	42	0	44	186	38	16	5	0%	1.0	20.6%	8.6%	12.0%	2.8%	4.44	4.39	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	BAL	50	0	53	224	47	19	6	0%	1.1	21.0%	8.6%	12.4%	2.8%	4.39	4.36	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	BAL	53	0	56	236	50	21	7	0%	1.1	21.1%	8.7%	12.4%	2.9%	4.39	4.39	+0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	BAL	54	0	57	241	50	21	7	0%	1.1	20.9%	8.8%	12.1%	3.0%	4.44	4.48	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		228	0	239	1009	210	88	29	0%	1.0	20.8%	8.7%	12.1%	2.9%	4.43	4.03	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	74	24	0%	1.1	20.8%	8.7%	12.1%	2.9%	4.43	4.03	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		40	9	108	487	64	58	14	22%	2.7	13.2%	11.9%	1.4%	3.0%	5.68	5.12	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	17	200	905	120	107	27	22%	2.7	13.2%	11.9%	1.4%	3.0%	5.68	5.12	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Downer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	18.4%	9.1%	2.9%	—	4.41	20.5%	11.8%	200	-0.23	—	—	—
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	86
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	86
Clark Beeker R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	23	SW	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.35	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.31	4.04	287	86
Chris Powell R 2016 · 3.76 FIP	23	SU	3.76	16.9%	7.8%	2.0%	.266	3.53	18.8%	15.1%	28	-0.23	3.31	102	85
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	84
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	83
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	83
Robbie Welhaf R 2018 · 4.06 FIP	23	SU	4.06	14.0%	7.6%	2.1%	.309	3.11	18.1%	15.0%	90	-0.95	3.11	121	83
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	83
Justin Lasko R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	22	SU	3.66	17.1%	8.6%	1.7%	.286	4.62	15.8%	8.1%	152	+0.96	3.66	173	83
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	82
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	82
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	82
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	82
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	82
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	82
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	82
Yunior Montero R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	23	SW	3.65	21.9%	11.9%	1.6%	.239	5.21	21.3%	3.7%	54	+1.56	3.65	127	81
Luis Eusebio R 2019 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.2%	10.6%	3.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	131	81
Tai Tiedemann R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	23	SU	3.87	17.5%	9.8%	1.8%	.305	5.78	9.8%	-0.2%	118	+1.91	3.87	190	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	59	20.5%	8.7%	1.11	4.45
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19