Brandon Downer
P
Frederick Keys
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION43 act + 25 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 99
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
K%21.9%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%12.9%
ROS IP25
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 7 | 42 | 175 | 35 | 13 | 2 | 70% | 4.2 | 14.2% | 9.0% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 3.67 | 3.92 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 7 | 42 | 175 | 35 | 13 | 2 | 70% | 4.2 | 20.0% | 7.4% | 12.6% | 1.1% | 3.67 | 2.98 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Frederick Keys | 20 | 0 | 43 | 199 | 37 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 2.2 | 14.1% | 14.5% | -0.4% | 4.4% | 6.02 | 6.17 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 0 | 25 | 105 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 9.1% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.9% | 9.1% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.34 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 68 | 304 | 60 | 34 | 10 | — | — | 19.7% | 11.4% | 8.4% | 3.3% | 5.41 | 5.50 | -0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 21.9% | 9.1% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 3.96 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 24 | 0 | 25 | 107 | 24 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 8.8% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 8.8% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.24 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 8.8% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 3.86 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 199 | 72 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 8.8% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 3.86 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 30 | 7 | 85 | 374 | 53 | 45 | 12 | 23% | 2.8 | 14.1% | 12.0% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.87 | 5.12 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 71 | 16 | 200 | 880 | 125 | 105 | 27 | 23% | 2.8 | 14.1% | 12.0% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.87 | 5.12 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Downer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 21.9% | 9.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.24 | 22.6% | 13.9% | 25 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Clark Beeker R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.04 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .270 | 4.35 | 11.6% | 6.4% | 244 | +0.31 | 4.04 | 287 | 88 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 85 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 84 |
| Luis Romero R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.50 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 3.2% | .367 | 4.16 | 21.6% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.34 | 3.99 | 293 | 84 |
| Ben Anderson R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.05 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 4.4% | .309 | 3.93 | 16.2% | 7.7% | 147 | -1.12 | 3.71 | 361 | 83 |
| Yunior Montero R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.60 | 21.9% | 11.9% | 1.5% | .239 | 5.26 | 21.3% | 3.7% | 54 | +1.66 | 3.60 | 127 | 82 |
| Billy Corcoran R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.25 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.88 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 188 | +0.63 | 4.17 | 257 | 82 |
| Parker Curry R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.68 | 22.5% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .341 | 4.68 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 193 | +1.00 | 3.68 | 256 | 81 |
| Brendan Collins R 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.60 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.25 | 3.60 | 122 | 81 |
| Zac Ryan R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 20.5% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .233 | 3.92 | 21.6% | 6.9% | 124 | +0.18 | 3.74 | 184 | 80 |
| Kevin Coulter R 2025 · 3.27 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.27 | 21.0% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.31 | 16.1% | 7.6% | 92 | +1.04 | 3.27 | 128 | 80 |
| Trent Fennell R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 12.2% | 1.8% | .328 | 5.38 | 19.4% | 3.5% | 107 | +1.50 | 3.88 | 163 | 80 |
| Colby Morris R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 80 |
| Chris Powell R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.81 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .266 | 3.42 | 18.8% | 15.1% | 28 | -0.39 | 3.31 | 102 | 80 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2028 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 80 |
| Michael Gomez R 2025 · 3.38 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.38 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 3.78 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 286 | 79 |
| Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .258 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.63 | 3.89 | 145 | 79 |
| Alex Klonowski R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.32 | 21.8% | 9.4% | 1.6% | .331 | 4.90 | 14.3% | 7.1% | 413 | +1.58 | 3.32 | 539 | 78 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 78 |
| Joshua Loeschorn R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 24.5% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .272 | 4.60 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 67 | +0.86 | 3.04 | 135 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 25 | 22.3% | 8.9% | 1.10 | 4.31 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |