Ethan Sloan — OGILVIE

Ethan Sloan P West Michigan Whitecaps

Age 23 LHP 5'11" / 190 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120128vR 136

ERA5.43

FIP5.43

K%14.6%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%2.5%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	2	0	2	12	3	4	0	0%	0.8	25.0%	33.3%	-8.3%	0.0%	10.80	5.21	—
2024	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	2	0	2	12	3	4	0	0%	0.8	25.0%	33.3%	-8.3%	0.0%	10.80	5.21	—
2024	21	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	2	0	2	12	3	4	0	0%	0.8	25.0%	33.3%	-8.3%	0.0%	10.80	6.70	—
2025	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	34	0	47	203	41	18	4	0%	1.4	14.9%	10.5%	4.5%	3.0%	3.61	4.79	—
2025	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	34	0	47	203	41	18	4	0%	1.4	14.9%	10.5%	4.5%	3.0%	3.61	4.79	—
2025	22	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	34	0	47	203	41	18	4	0%	1.4	20.2%	8.9%	11.3%	2.0%	3.61	3.61	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	33	0	42	206	33	19	6	0%	1.3	12.3%	10.6%	1.7%	3.6%	8.14	5.40	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	33	0	42	206	33	19	6	0%	1.3	12.3%	10.6%	1.7%	3.6%	8.14	5.40	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	DET	33	0	42	206	33	19	6	0%	1.3	16.0%	9.2%	6.8%	2.9%	8.14	4.51	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	DET	51	0	54	227	37	26	7	0%	1.1	16.5%	11.4%	5.1%	3.0%	5.22	5.16	-0.4
2028	25	MLB MLE	DET	52	0	54	230	40	25	7	0%	1.0	17.6%	11.1%	6.5%	3.0%	5.07	5.02	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	DET	22	0	23	97	16	11	3	0%	1.0	16.5%	11.4%	5.1%	3.0%	5.22	5.16	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	DET	34	0	36	152	27	17	4	0%	1.1	17.6%	11.1%	6.5%	3.0%	5.07	5.02	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	59	250	43	28	7	0%	1.1	17.2%	11.2%	6.0%	3.0%	5.13	4.69	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	145	95	24	0%	1.1	17.2%	11.2%	6.0%	3.0%	5.13	4.69	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		69	0	91	421	59	47	14	0%	1.3	14.0%	11.2%	2.8%	3.2%	5.84	5.10	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		152	0	200	925	129	103	30	0%	1.3	14.0%	11.2%	2.8%	3.2%	5.84	5.10	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Sloan (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.43	14.6%	12.2%	3.0%	—	5.09	17.0%	5.8%	108	-0.34	—	—	—
Josh Mitchell L 2018 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	14.6%	11.9%	2.8%	.325	2.90	19.0%	11.1%	44	-2.00	2.90	100	88
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	87
Jordan Mills L 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	13.9%	12.7%	1.4%	.323	2.72	18.6%	10.0%	114	-1.56	2.64	210	86
Ivan Salas L 2015 · 4.28 FIP	24	SU	4.28	14.7%	12.1%	1.6%	.269	3.62	13.7%	6.1%	67	-0.66	3.18	112	86
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	86
Graeme Stinson L 2021 · 5.66 FIP	23	SU	5.66	12.6%	12.6%	3.7%	.266	4.14	21.4%	8.7%	101	-1.52	3.56	146	86
Will Mabrey L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	22	SU	4.27	18.5%	12.6%	2.1%	.256	4.27	19.2%	6.6%	62	+0.00	4.14	128	84
Kirby Snead L 2018 · 4.38 FIP	23	SU	4.38	15.4%	12.3%	1.9%	.300	3.20	25.5%	16.0%	92	-1.18	2.12	388	84
Felix Carvallo L 2016 · 4.60 FIP	22	SU	4.60	17.7%	13.0%	2.4%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	132	84
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	83
Cam Alldred L 2019 · 4.61 FIP	23	SU	4.61	18.1%	11.0%	3.0%	.323	4.24	18.5%	7.9%	132	-0.37	3.70	332	83
Jake Dahlberg L 2017 · 5.06 FIP	23	SU	5.06	15.1%	8.7%	3.9%	.306	3.11	13.0%	7.4%	47	-1.95	3.11	226	83
Bryan Harper L 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	15.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.236	4.38	17.1%	5.3%	92	-0.52	4.13	133	83
Luis Rico L 2017 · 4.30 FIP	23	SU	4.30	17.1%	10.8%	2.3%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.30	199	83
Ignacio Briceno L 2023 · 4.54 FIP	22	SU	4.54	17.3%	12.7%	2.4%	.270	3.28	14.7%	3.5%	76	-1.26	2.39	156	83
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	81
Frank Garces L 2015 · 5.65 FIP	25	SU	5.65	16.7%	13.3%	4.2%	.267	4.32	16.9%	8.9%	114	-1.33	4.32	306	81
Juliandry Higuera L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	13.8%	14.1%	1.7%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	197	81
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	81
Will Gilbert L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	23	SU	4.69	12.4%	11.9%	2.1%	.339	3.64	19.2%	10.3%	122	-1.05	2.92	141	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	16.3%	11.5%	1.15	5.24
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74