Jacob Hartlaub

P Charleston RiverDogs

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 191 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	ATB	6	10	3.60	3.00	17.9%	0.0%	—	K 17.9% · BB 0.0% · FIP 2.99
2026	23	MIX2 levels	37	53	5.23	4.17	25.3%	8.4%	—	K 18.9% · BB 9.9% · FIP 5.43
2027PROJ	24	MLBTB	35	37	4.79	4.79	20.4%	9.8%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBTB	20	21	4.69	4.65	21.1%	9.4%	-0.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBTB	30	32	4.63	4.61	21.5%	9.3%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsHueston Morrill (age 24) · Ricardo Velez (age 24) · Jon Leicester (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.79

FIP4.79

K%20.4%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%10.6%

Proj IP37

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	6	0	10	39	7	0	1	0%	1.7	17.9%	0.0%	17.9%	2.6%	3.60	2.99	—
2025	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	6	0	10	39	7	0	1	0%	1.7	17.9%	0.0%	17.9%	2.6%	3.60	2.99	—
2025	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	6	0	10	39	7	0	1	0%	1.7	17.9%	0.0%	17.9%	2.6%	3.60	3.00	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	53	237	60	20	9	0%	1.4	18.9%	9.9%	9.0%	4.9%	5.23	5.43	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	53	237	60	20	9	0%	1.4	18.9%	9.9%	9.0%	4.9%	5.23	5.43	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	53	237	60	20	9	0%	1.4	25.3%	8.4%	16.9%	3.8%	5.23	4.17	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TB	35	0	37	156	32	15	5	0%	1.1	20.4%	9.8%	10.6%	3.3%	4.79	4.79	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TB	46	0	49	205	43	19	7	0%	1.1	21.1%	9.4%	11.7%	3.2%	4.69	4.65	-0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	TB	46	0	49	205	44	19	7	0%	1.1	21.5%	9.3%	12.2%	3.2%	4.63	4.61	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	TB	20	0	21	89	19	8	3	0%	1.1	21.1%	9.4%	11.7%	3.2%	4.69	4.65	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	TB	30	0	32	135	29	13	4	0%	1.1	21.5%	9.3%	12.2%	3.2%	4.63	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	0	53	224	48	21	7	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.3%	12.0%	3.2%	4.65	4.25	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	181	79	26	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.3%	12.0%	3.2%	4.65	4.25	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		43	0	63	276	52	23	13	0%	1.5	18.8%	8.5%	10.3%	4.5%	4.97	5.08	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		136	0	200	872	164	74	40	0%	1.5	18.8%	8.5%	10.3%	4.5%	4.97	5.08	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Hartlaub (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.79	20.4%	9.8%	3.3%	—	4.63	21.3%	12.0%	97	-0.16	—	—	—
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	94
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	92
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	91
Andrew Cashner R 2010 · 4.51 FIP	23	SU	4.51	20.2%	10.1%	3.4%	.285	3.30	19.9%	13.0%	221	-1.21	2.94	1,185	91
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	90
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	90
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	90
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	89
Kyle Whitten R 2023 · 4.35 FIP	24	SU	4.35	18.0%	9.5%	2.9%	.296	5.14	18.0%	8.1%	37	+0.79	4.32	152	89
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	88
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	88
Shay Schanaman R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	21.0%	7.6%	3.7%	.292	6.05	16.4%	2.8%	90	+1.71	4.34	148	88
Luke Bell R 2024 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	20.4%	9.9%	1.8%	.295	5.69	13.1%	1.3%	66	+2.07	3.62	110	88
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	88
Josh Advocate R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.71	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.07	3.71	118	88
Brett McKinney R 2015 · 4.79 FIP	24	SU	4.79	17.1%	8.9%	3.6%	.335	4.02	18.1%	8.5%	129	-0.77	3.43	183	87
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	87
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	87
Matt Pierpont R 2015 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	17.8%	7.1%	3.1%	.295	3.25	21.7%	13.8%	190	-0.96	2.76	280	87
Micah Dallas R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	24	SU	4.04	18.7%	7.1%	3.0%	.273	4.34	17.8%	8.2%	104	+0.30	3.60	202	87

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	21.0%	9.5%	1.25	4.70
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*