Raisei Nakamura — OGILVIE

Raisei Nakamura P DSL Marlins

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 172 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 10 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.05

FIP5.05

K%21.4%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%7.6%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	11	0	13	75	9	14	1	0%	1.2	8.2%	23.3%	-15.2%	1.0%	14.21	5.92	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	11	0	13	75	9	14	1	0%	1.2	8.2%	23.3%	-15.2%	1.0%	14.21	5.92	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	11	0	13	75	9	14	1	0%	1.2	12.0%	18.7%	-6.7%	1.3%	14.21	6.02	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	12	0	19	86	17	11	1	0%	1.6	13.4%	16.0%	-2.5%	1.2%	4.82	4.64	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	12	0	19	86	17	11	1	0%	1.6	13.4%	16.0%	-2.5%	1.2%	4.82	4.64	—
2025	22	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	12	0	19	86	17	11	1	0%	1.6	19.8%	12.8%	7.0%	1.2%	4.82	3.74	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIA	10	0	10	42	9	6	1	0%	1.0	21.4%	13.7%	7.6%	3.0%	5.05	5.05	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIA	19	0	20	84	19	10	2	0%	1.1	21.9%	12.3%	9.7%	3.0%	4.87	4.81	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIA	9	0	9	38	8	5	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	12.3%	9.7%	3.0%	4.87	4.81	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	4	1	0%	1.1	21.9%	12.3%	9.7%	3.0%	4.87	4.43	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	94	23	0%	1.1	21.9%	12.3%	9.7%	3.0%	4.87	4.43	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		23	0	31	161	18	31	2	0%	1.4	11.0%	19.4%	-8.4%	1.1%	8.62	5.24	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		147	0	200	1028	113	199	11	0%	1.4	11.0%	19.4%	-8.4%	1.1%	8.62	5.24	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Raisei Nakamura (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.05	21.4%	13.7%	3.0%	—	4.81	21.9%	9.7%	20	-0.24	—	—	—
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	90
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	88
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	87
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	87
Michael Bowden R 2011 · 4.93 FIP	24	SU	4.93	18.9%	12.2%	3.4%	.271	4.22	17.1%	8.1%	77	-0.71	3.21	269	86
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	86
Maikel Cleto R 2014 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	23.2%	15.2%	2.1%	.256	3.45	25.4%	14.5%	106	-0.79	2.59	185	86
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	86
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	85
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	85
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	85
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	85
Reid Schaller R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	20.2%	13.1%	2.8%	.298	3.89	22.0%	11.4%	90	-0.71	3.61	186	85
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	85
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	85
Dan Kolb R 2001 · 4.49 FIP	26	SU	4.49	21.4%	12.9%	2.9%	.295	3.61	14.3%	5.5%	131	-0.88	3.00	283	85
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	85
Luis Vizcaino R 2000 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	18.8%	11.5%	2.1%	.354	4.31	22.7%	14.9%	180	+0.20	3.07	564	85
Kasey Ford R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	24	SU	5.12	21.3%	14.7%	3.6%	.302	3.83	22.2%	5.5%	65	-1.29	2.53	114	84
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	84