Drew Vogel — OGILVIE

Drew VogelSS Asheville Tourists

Age 25 R/R 6'1" / 195 lbs A+ HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†36

AVG/OBP/SLG.166 / .232 / .254

PA1

HR0

K%39

BB%6

BABIP263

ISO91

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	22	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	88	71	6	0	0	0	13	17	4	10	1	85	261	85	346		111	19	15	198	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	417	362	65	12	1	11	39	156	10	24	6	180	277	309	587	130	270	37	9	268	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	88	75	5	0	0	0	9	23	4	10	1	67	205	67	271		99	26	10	147	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	417	378	44	7	1	6	23	209	10	24	6	116	187	188	375	71	214	50	6	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	88	75	5	0	0	0	9	23	4	10	1	67	205	67	271		96	26	10	147	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	88	71	6	0	0	0	13	17	4	10	1	85	261	85	346		111	19	15	198	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	417	378	44	7	1	6	23	209	10	24	6	116	187	188	375	71	226	50	6	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	—	417	362	65	12	1	11	39	156	10	24	6	180	277	309	587	130	270	37	9	268	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	88	75	5	0	0	0	9	23	4	10	1	67	205	67	271		99	26	10	147	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	417	381	44	7	1	6	23	209	10	24	6	115	187	186	374	71	214	50	6	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	88	75	5	0	0	0	9	23	4	10	1	67	205	67	271		99	26	10	147	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	417	381	44	7	1	6	23	209	10	24	6	115	187	186	374	71	214	50	6	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	380	347	57	11	1	6	24	147	6	9	2	164	230	252	482	88	259	39	6	222	36	-29	+1	+0	+4	+8	-0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	HOU	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	166	232	254	486	89	263	0	0	223	36	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	HOU	30%	158	145	25	5	1	3	10	60	2	4	1	168	235	262	497	94	261	38	6	228	40	-11	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.6
2028	26	MLB CTX	HOU	30%	48	44	7	1	0	1	3	18	1	1	0	170	237	265	501	95	265	38	6	230	40	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	48	44	7	1	0	1	3	18	1	1	0	159	229	250	479	91	240	38	6	230	14	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	596	96	14	0	14	41	244	14	14	0	161	232	255	487	94	243	38	6	230	14	-46	+3	+0	+7	+14	-2.3
Career	—	MLE		—	807	730	96	16	3	11	51	348	18	41	9	132	207	207	413	75	225	43	6	189	14	-22	+1	+0	+3	+7	-1.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	77	13	2	9	41	280	14	33	7	131	205	206	411	75	223	43	6	189	14	-48	+1	+0	+7	+14	-2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Drew Vogel (OGILVIE)	25	20	40	55	40	162/228/250	88	259	2	3	39%	6%	36	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Casey Martin 2024 · AA	25	31→32	42→40	52→50	36	167/217/264	97	246	10	16	36%	5%	34	-3.5	172/224/269	97	261	10	13	37%	5%	38	-3.2	121/175/199	78	179	10	12	38%	5%	3	-3.4
✕Thomas Jones 2022 · A	24	36	40	52→50	37	174/253/267	93	285	8	17	39%	6%	50	-2.3	180/259/292	112	314	11	13	43%	7%	58	-1.7	123/216/249	125	228	14	10	49%	8%	32	-1.4
✕Jose Torres 2024 · AA	24	36→34	42→45	53→55	37	183/238/282	98	269	11	17	35%	6%	47	-2.6	184/237/284	100	283	11	14	37%	6%	47	-2.6	172/225/269	98	261	12	14	38%	5%	36	-1.7
✕Wyatt Hendrie 2024 · A	25	38	40	51→50	39	184/253/275	91	288	8	9	37%	7%	51	-2.3	193/268/288	95	284	9	12	33%	8%	59	-1.6	167/254/245	78	237	10	16	32%	8%	44	-0.6
✕LeDarious Clark 2019 · A	25	36→33	45	53→55	38	181/247/303	122	291	13	20	40%	7%	55	-2.0	197/260/309	112	301	12	14	36%	6%	61	-1.5	150/197/253	102	212	15	7	37%	3%	25	-0.9
✕Tanner Murphy 2023 · A	25	38	42→45	53→50	36	183/253/287	104	309	10	12	41%	7%	54	-2.0	197/260/292	95	358	8	14	44%	7%	57	-1.8	166/230/234	68	350	5	22	50%	7%	30	-1.2
✕Beau Philip 2023 · A	24	36→34	42→40	50	37	175/243/270	95	299	11	13	43%	8%	46	-2.6	194/266/294	100	321	10	9	39%	8%	60	-1.6	168/251/259	90	286	9	3	41%	8%	45	-1.2
✕Jeremy Eierman 2021 · A	24	34→26	42→50	50→45	33	174/221/277	103	286	10	9	42%	5%	38	-3.2	184/239/325	141	291	17	10	41%	5%	57	-1.8	161/219/305	144	243	20	10	42%	5%	43	-1.1
✕Zach Cone 2015 · A	25	35→37	40→45	46→45	35	176/233/265	89	282	8	7	39%	6%	40	-3.0	196/240/323	127	291	15	7	37%	4%	57	-1.8	189/227/330	141	266	18	5	36%	4%	50	-1.1
✕Justin Lavey 2023 · A	25	39	40	58→55	35	183/237/272	89	318	7	18	42%	6%	43	-2.8	200/249/288	88	326	7	16	38%	6%	51	-2.2	182/209/240	58	291	5	20	38%	3%	20	-0.8
✕Liam Spence 2023 · A	25	36	40	48→45	44	180/253/265	85	263	8	6	33%	8%	49	-2.4	198/272/287	89	298	7	8	33%	8%	60	-1.6	159/252/213	54	251	3	7	34%	10%	34	-0.6
✕Dylan Rosa 2021 · AA	25	38→30	44→45	50→45	37	194/248/305	111	290	12	9	36%	6%	55	-1.9	193/248/323	130	338	15	8	45%	6%	60	-1.6	161/218/295	135	289	17	6	48%	5%	40	-1.0
✕Brett Auerbach 2024 · AA	25	36→34	44→45	50→55	37	186/243/297	111	279	13	19	37%	6%	52	-2.2	214/278/321	107	308	9	14	31%	7%	70	-0.8	228/299/342	114	318	8	12	29%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Brandon Thomas 2015 · A	24	37	40	54→55	39	181/254/271	90	285	8	17	37%	7%	51	-2.3	191/258/279	88	333	7	15	41%	7%	53	-2.1	145/219/197	52	305	3	18	49%	8%	17	-1.1
✕Zach Watson 2023 · AA	26	36→33	44→45	51→50	32	185/225/299	115	282	13	13	39%	4%	45	-2.7	196/242/313	117	288	12	15	35%	5%	55	-2.0	167/210/287	121	227	14	24	33%	4%	35	-1.2
✕Jordan Betts 2017 · AA	25	35→28	40→45	46→40	35	174/219/264	90	270	7	4	37%	5%	34	-3.5	192/239/303	111	289	12	4	36%	5%	51	-2.2	184/231/297	113	272	14	3	37%	5%	46	-1.6
✕Jawuan Harris 2021 · A	24	37→27	40	54→55	41	171/260/263	92	306	7	18	42%	9%	51	-2.2	178/258/261	83	372	6	20	48%	9%	50	-2.3	92/196/136	44	239	2	38	56%	10%	-2	-1.7
✕Bubba Alleyne 2024 · A	25	35→29	41→40	54→55	38	177/232/272	95	256	8	20	33%	6%	41	-3.0	192/250/282	90	284	8	18	33%	6%	51	-2.3	189/252/277	88	283	8	21	34%	7%	47	-1.4
✕Raoul Torrez 2013 · AA	25	37	42→40	48→45	38	187/251/284	97	276	10	6	34%	6%	52	-2.2	193/251/282	89	326	8	9	40%	6%	51	-2.2	160/216/226	66	308	6	9	47%	5%	24	-1.5
✕Ryan Higgins 2024 · A	24	35	42→40	45	36	174/242/277	102	277	9	10	38%	6%	47	-2.5	187/251/284	97	310	9	10	40%	6%	52	-2.2	159/224/238	80	273	9	9	43%	5%	30	-2.0