Matt McShane

P Greenville Drive

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	21	42	2.55	1.47	31.6%	5.6%	—	K 24.0% · BB 6.6% · FIP 2.25
2026	23	A+BOS	31	49	4.78	5.26	25.8%	9.4%	—	K 19.9% · BB 10.8% · FIP 6.65
2027PROJ	24	MLBBOS	27	28	4.77	4.77	21.5%	9.5%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBBOS	18	19	4.68	4.65	22.1%	9.2%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsRicardo Velez (age 24) · Hueston Morrill (age 24) · Jon Leicester (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%21.5%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%12.0%

Proj IP28

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	42	177	56	10	1	0%	2.0	24.0%	6.6%	17.5%	0.6%	2.55	2.25	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	42	177	56	10	1	0%	2.0	24.0%	6.6%	17.5%	0.6%	2.55	2.25	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	42	177	56	10	1	0%	2.0	31.6%	5.6%	26.0%	0.6%	2.55	1.47	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	31	0	49	213	55	20	12	0%	1.6	19.9%	10.8%	9.1%	7.0%	4.78	6.65	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	31	0	49	213	55	20	12	0%	1.6	19.9%	10.8%	9.1%	7.0%	4.78	6.65	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	31	0	49	213	55	20	12	0%	1.6	25.8%	9.4%	16.4%	5.6%	4.78	5.26	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BOS	27	0	28	118	25	11	4	0%	1.0	21.5%	9.5%	12.0%	3.5%	4.77	4.77	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BOS	43	0	45	189	42	17	6	0%	1.0	22.1%	9.2%	12.9%	3.4%	4.68	4.65	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	BOS	18	0	19	80	18	7	3	0%	1.1	22.1%	9.2%	12.9%	3.4%	4.68	4.65	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	0	19	81	18	7	3	0%	1.1	22.1%	9.2%	12.9%	3.4%	4.68	4.27	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	73	31	0%	1.1	22.1%	9.2%	12.9%	3.4%	4.68	4.27	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		52	0	91	390	85	35	16	0%	1.8	21.8%	8.9%	12.9%	4.1%	3.74	4.66	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		114	0	200	854	186	76	35	0%	1.8	21.8%	8.9%	12.9%	4.1%	3.74	4.66	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt McShane (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	21.5%	9.5%	3.5%	—	4.65	22.1%	12.9%	45	-0.12	—	—	—
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	92
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	90
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	89
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	89
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	88
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	88
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	87
Shay Schanaman R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	21.0%	7.6%	3.7%	.292	6.05	16.4%	2.8%	90	+1.71	4.34	148	87
Josh Advocate R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.71	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.07	3.71	118	87
Danny Hrbek R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	21.3%	7.5%	3.1%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	100	86
Stolmy Pimentel R 2014 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.7%	9.5%	3.6%	.319	4.17	14.8%	4.3%	143	+0.04	3.87	176	86
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	86
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	86
Andrew Cashner R 2010 · 4.51 FIP	23	SU	4.51	20.2%	10.1%	3.4%	.285	3.30	19.9%	13.0%	221	-1.21	2.94	1,185	86
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	86
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	85
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	85
Trey McLoughlin R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	24	SU	3.79	23.7%	8.4%	3.0%	.295	4.55	20.8%	8.6%	123	+0.76	3.77	245	85
Luke Bell R 2024 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	20.4%	9.9%	1.8%	.295	5.69	13.1%	1.3%	66	+2.07	3.62	110	85
Justin Sterner R 2021 · 4.83 FIP	24	SU	4.83	23.9%	9.4%	4.7%	.279	4.54	26.3%	17.7%	142	-0.29	3.90	294	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	36	21.9%	9.3%	1.33	4.71
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*