Andres Garza — OGILVIE

Andres GarzaC DSL Padres Brown

Age 19 L/R 5'11" / 165 lbs ROK HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 125 proj PA

wRC+†48

AVG/OBP/SLG.180 / .261 / .247

PA11

HR0

K%31

BB%8

ISO67

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED35

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2037	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	52	42	6	2	0	0	9	13	0	0	1	143	294	190	485	48	200	25	17	240	48	-3	-0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2025	18	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	150	117	24	2	1	1	24	42	7	0	1	205	372	265	637	60	307	28	16	308	95	-1	-0	—	—	+3	0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	52	46	4	1	0	0	5	20	0	0	1	87	176	109	285	22	152	38	10	156	-8	-7	-0	—	—	+1	-0.6
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	150	126	18	1	1	1	15	59	7	0	1	143	270	190	461	48	244	39	10	215	32	-12	-0	—	—	+3	-1.0
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	52	46	4	1	0	0	5	20	0	0	1	87	176	109	285	22	148	38	10	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	—	52	42	6	2	0	0	9	13	0	0	1	143	294	190	485	48	200	25	17	240	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	150	126	18	1	1	1	15	59	7	0	1	143	270	190	461	48	254	39	10	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	—	150	117	24	2	1	1	24	42	7	0	1	205	372	265	637	60	307	28	16	308	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	52	47	4	1	0	0	5	20	0	0	1	85	176	106	283	21	152	38	10	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	150	127	18	1	1	1	15	59	7	0	1	142	270	189	459	47	244	39	10	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	52	47	4	1	0	0	5	20	0	0	1	85	176	106	283	21	152	38	10	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	150	127	18	1	1	1	15	59	7	0	1	142	270	189	459	47	244	39	10	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	19	MLB MLE	SD	0%	11	10	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	100	182	100	282		264	27	9	239	48	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	SD	34%	211	188	35	6	1	2	18	63	3	2	1	186	268	261	529	74	269	30	9	252	57	-11	+0	+0	+4	+5	-0.3
2028	21	MLB MLE	SD	48%	342	305	60	10	2	5	29	99	5	4	1	197	277	292	569	95	271	29	8	261	63	-15	+0	+0	+6	+7	-0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	SD	54%	435	387	78	13	3	7	38	124	7	4	2	202	285	305	590	103	273	29	9	267	67	-17	+0	+0	+8	+9	0.0
2030	23	MLB MLE	SD	57%	498	444	90	15	3	8	43	140	8	5	2	203	285	304	589	101	275	28	9	271	69	-18	+0	+0	+9	+11	0.2
2031	24	MLB MLE	SD	57%	520	462	95	16	3	9	45	146	8	5	2	206	287	312	599	106	276	28	9	273	71	-18	+0	+0	+9	+11	0.3
2032	25	MLB MLE	SD	57%	520	462	95	16	3	9	45	146	8	5	2	206	287	312	599	106	276	28	9	273	71	-18	+0	+0	+9	+11	0.3
2033	26	MLB MLE	SD	56%	520	462	95	16	3	9	45	146	8	5	2	206	287	312	599	106	276	28	9	274	72	-18	+0	+0	+9	+11	0.3
2034	27	MLB MLE	SD	55%	520	461	95	16	3	9	46	146	8	5	2	206	289	312	602	106	275	28	9	274	72	-18	+0	+0	+9	+11	0.3
2035	28	MLB MLE	SD	59%	520	461	94	16	3	9	46	147	8	5	2	204	287	310	598	106	275	28	9	273	71	-18	+0	-1	+9	+11	0.2
2036	29	MLB MLE	SD	61%	520	460	93	15	3	9	47	148	8	5	2	202	287	307	594	104	274	28	9	271	70	-19	+0	-1	+9	+11	0.1
2037	30	MLB MLE	SD	62%	520	460	92	15	3	8	47	149	8	5	2	200	285	298	583	98	272	29	9	268	68	-20	+0	-2	+9	+11	-0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	SD	34%	73	66	12	2	0	1	6	22	1	1	0	182	260	258	518	76	266	30	8	240	57	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	SD	48%	166	148	29	5	1	2	14	48	3	2	1	196	279	284	563	88	269	29	8	249	63	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	SD	54%	236	210	42	7	1	4	20	67	4	2	1	200	282	300	582	100	271	28	8	255	67	-9	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.0
2030	23	MLB CTX	SD	57%	282	252	51	8	2	5	24	79	4	3	1	202	282	310	592	107	272	28	9	258	69	-10	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	SD	57%	294	261	54	9	2	5	26	83	5	3	1	207	291	314	605	107	273	28	9	260	71	-10	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.2
2032	25	MLB CTX	SD	57%	294	261	54	9	2	5	26	82	5	3	1	207	291	314	605	107	273	28	9	261	71	-10	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.2
2033	26	MLB CTX	SD	56%	294	261	53	9	2	5	26	82	5	3	1	203	288	310	598	107	273	28	9	261	72	-10	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.2
2034	27	MLB CTX	SD	55%	288	256	52	8	2	5	25	81	5	3	1	203	287	309	595	105	273	28	9	261	72	-10	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.2
2035	28	MLB CTX	SD	59%	307	272	55	9	2	5	27	87	5	3	1	202	286	305	591	103	272	28	9	260	71	-11	+0	-0	+5	+7	0.1
2036	29	MLB CTX	SD	61%	317	281	56	9	2	5	28	90	5	3	1	199	283	299	582	100	271	28	9	259	70	-11	+0	-1	+6	+7	0.0
2037	30	MLB CTX	SD	62%	324	287	57	9	2	5	29	93	5	3	1	199	283	296	580	98	270	29	9	256	68	-12	+0	-1	+6	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2875	2555	515	84	18	47	251	814	47	29	10	202	285	304	589	102	274	28	9	258	67	-105	+2	-3	+51	+62	0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	117	19	4	11	57	184	11	7	2	202	287	306	593	104	275	28	9	258	67	-24	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	5339	4734	945	156	31	85	470	1536	86	50	22	200	284	300	583	100	274	29	9	267	67	-190	+2	-4	+92	+111	1.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	115	19	4	10	57	187	10	6	3	200	283	299	581	99	274	29	9	267	67	-24	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	4.3	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
/162	664	4	15	+6.9	+19.7	2.4	pk7: 11
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.5	2,999	48	31	203	283	304	+54	+28	2.6	2.5
/162	664	11	7	+11.9	+6.2	0.6	pk7: 2
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Andres Garza (OGILVIE)	19	25	20	35	60	180/261/247	67	264	1	1	31%	8%	48	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Miguel Arrendell 2008 · A	20	39	36→30	39→50	49	183/257/243	60	229	4	5	21%	8%	45	-2.7	205/298/270	65	269	4	12	23%	11%	67	-1.1	199/294/260	61	266	4	15	24%	11%	61	-0.6
✕Kleiber Rodriguez 2018 · A	19	37	35→30	46→40	46	175/250/234	59	244	2	5	27%	8%	40	-3.0	219/280/288	69	282	3	5	21%	7%	63	-1.4	240/298/301	61	284	2	4	15%	8%	71	-0.4
✕Nicoll Parra 2012 · A	18	39	36→30	44→55	45	183/264/252	70	275	4	8	32%	8%	50	-2.3	197/307/251	54	268	1	18	24%	12%	67	-1.1	186/321/224	38	254	0	27	22%	14%	65	-0.4
✕Luis Cruz 2012 · A	19	39	35→40	43→45	42	186/235/238	52	254	2	5	27%	6%	34	-3.5	220/272/314	94	275	9	5	22%	5%	65	-1.2	224/271/298	73	297	6	3	25%	4%	59	-0.7
✕José Alvarez 2018 · A	18	40	34→40	40→50	46	189/260/235	46	266	2	7	28%	8%	44	-2.8	218/275/277	59	303	2	7	27%	7%	58	-1.7	229/279/278	49	322	1	8	27%	6%	58	-0.4
✕Daniel Vellojin 2019 · A	19	39	39→45	47→45	48	189/268/273	83	260	6	6	28%	9%	56	-1.9	213/303/311	98	271	7	8	22%	10%	78	-0.3	194/297/306	112	259	11	6	27%	12%	72	-0.3
✕Starlin Aguilar 2023 · A	19	42	35→50	41→45	39	199/247/257	58	288	3	3	31%	5%	42	-2.9	193/244/264	71	296	4	5	34%	5%	44	-2.8	182/231/281	99	278	10	2	37%	5%	40	-1.0
✕Branden Becker 2016 · A	19	42	34→40	39→30	46	197/250/246	49	243	2	5	19%	6%	41	-3.0	206/247/262	56	273	3	4	24%	4%	44	-2.8	223/258/277	54	304	4	1	27%	4%	49	-1.0
✕Miguel Moreno 2009 · A	19	38	39→40	42→40	48	184/276/263	79	271	7	5	32%	10%	57	-1.8	200/281/271	71	286	5	5	29%	9%	61	-1.5	176/264/209	33	250	3	3	28%	10%	37	-1.0
✕Omar Alfonzo 2023 · A	19	36→40	37→45	48→40	48	173/263/240	67	258	5	3	32%	10%	47	-2.5	205/289/309	104	317	11	4	35%	10%	72	-0.7	200/285/310	110	312	13	2	37%	10%	69	-0.6
✕Terry Serrano 2006 · A	19	41	35→30	42→55	43	189/254/246	57	294	2	9	34%	8%	44	-2.8	190/261/247	57	266	3	15	27%	8%	47	-2.6	193/272/251	58	274	2	17	28%	9%	50	-1.0
✕Luis Joseph 2015 · A	18	40	35→30	36→50	39	191/231/252	62	259	2	6	26%	5%	35	-3.4	216/248/272	56	269	2	9	20%	4%	45	-2.7	223/244/272	49	266	2	11	16%	2%	41	-1.0
✕Kleininger Teran 2008 · A	19	45	35→30	42→45	51	208/278/269	61	261	3	5	20%	8%	58	-1.7	221/282/284	63	271	2	4	18%	7%	62	-1.4	243/286/311	68	291	1	2	16%	5%	66	-0.4
✕Michael De La Cruz 2016 · A	20	41	36→40	45→50	44	192/261/262	70	277	4	9	30%	8%	50	-2.3	192/257/257	65	308	3	10	35%	8%	47	-2.5	156/232/188	31	269	0	14	38%	9%	20	-1.5
✕Juan Diaz 2008 · A	19	40→50	35→45	36→45	41	188/245/250	62	264	2	5	28%	6%	41	-3.0	224/260/301	77	298	5	6	25%	5%	57	-1.8	251/287/343	92	329	7	7	25%	5%	73	-0.5
✕Marco Guzman 2014 · A	19	39	36→45	44→50	48	185/262/256	71	249	3	8	25%	9%	50	-2.3	207/264/294	87	251	5	7	19%	7%	58	-1.7	224/262/324	100	290	5	8	24%	5%	62	-0.5
✕Jeikol Contreras 2019 · A	19	31	38→40	36→40	43	157/237/237	80	254	5	5	38%	9%	36	-3.3	184/243/269	85	346	6	5	45%	7%	45	-2.7	140/182/221	81	334	6	0	57%	5%	9	-1.0
✕Robert Lopez 2023 · A	19	36	36→45	46→45	40	174/248/241	67	276	4	6	36%	7%	41	-3.0	195/256/281	86	295	7	4	34%	7%	53	-2.1	183/247/263	80	272	8	3	34%	7%	43	-1.1
✕Dahiandy Johnson 2019 · A	19	38	39→40	43→45	42	187/245/267	80	253	6	4	28%	6%	45	-2.7	201/263/294	93	259	8	6	25%	7%	59	-1.7	189/256/282	93	230	10	5	22%	7%	51	-1.0
✕Luis Sierra 2006 · A	19	45	36→40	39→45	51	209/282/283	74	259	2	5	19%	8%	63	-1.4	217/290/302	85	266	6	7	20%	7%	71	-0.8	224/278/323	99	258	10	8	17%	5%	69	-0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps