Elvis Rijo — OGILVIE

Elvis RijoSS Lansing Lugnuts

Age 22 R/R 5'11" / 165 lbs A+ HR -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 75 proj PA

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .276 / .307

PA75

HR1

K%27

BB%6

ISO97

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL Athletics	—	143	122	23	6	0	0	11	30	8	1	3	189	298	238	536	49	247	21	8	244	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	DSL Athletics	—	143	115	29	8	0	0	18	19	8	1	3	252	390	322	712	70	299	13	13	334	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	2 teams	—	84	77	10	0	0	0	4	26	2	0	2	130	193	130	323		192	31	5	146	-30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	2 teams	—	84	75	11	0	0	0	6	19	2	0	2	147	229	147	376		193	23	7	186	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	2 teams	—	206	178	31	7	0	0	9	52	17	4	2	174	279	213	493	39	244	25	4	223	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	2 teams	—	206	174	35	8	0	0	13	39	17	4	2	201	319	247	566	46	257	19	6	273	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	Lansing Lugnuts	—	43	39	2	1	0	0	3	23	0	0	0	51	119	77	196	26	125	53	7	92	-71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	Lansing Lugnuts	—	43	37	3	2	0	0	5	16	0	0	0	81	190	135	326	54	143	37	12	162	-18	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	OAK	—	75	69	14	3	0	1	5	20	1	1	0	203	267	290	557	87	283	27	7	267	63	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	OAK	35%	163	148	32	6	1	3	11	43	3	2	1	216	284	331	615	115	285	26	7	278	71	-5	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2028	24	MLB	OAK	46%	279	253	58	11	2	6	19	73	5	4	1	229	296	360	656	130	287	26	7	286	77	-7	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.4
2029	25	MLB	OAK	52%	352	318	72	13	2	8	25	91	6	5	2	226	295	355	650	129	287	26	7	291	81	-8	+0	+0	+4	+10	0.6
2030	26	MLB	OAK	54%	400	362	81	15	2	9	28	103	7	6	2	224	292	351	643	127	288	26	7	293	83	-8	+0	+0	+4	+11	0.8
2031	27	MLB	OAK	54%	423	381	86	16	2	10	31	109	8	6	2	226	298	357	655	131	287	26	7	294	83	-8	+0	+0	+5	+12	0.9
2032	28	MLB	OAK	54%	434	391	88	16	2	10	32	112	8	6	2	225	297	353	650	128	287	26	7	293	82	-9	+0	-1	+5	+12	0.8
2027	23	MLB	OAK	35%	56	51	11	2	0	1	4	15	1	1	0	216	286	314	599	98	283	27	7	262	59	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	24	MLB	OAK	46%	129	117	27	5	1	3	9	34	2	2	1	231	297	368	664	137	284	26	7	270	65	-5	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.0
2029	25	MLB	OAK	52%	182	164	37	7	1	4	13	47	3	3	1	226	294	354	648	128	285	26	7	275	69	-6	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2030	26	MLB	OAK	54%	217	196	44	8	1	5	15	56	4	3	1	224	293	352	645	128	285	26	7	278	71	-7	+0	+0	+2	+6	0.2
2031	27	MLB	OAK	54%	230	207	47	9	1	5	17	59	4	3	1	227	298	353	651	126	285	26	7	278	71	-8	+0	+0	+2	+7	0.2
2032	28	MLB	OAK	54%	236	213	47	9	1	5	17	61	4	3	1	221	291	343	633	122	285	26	7	277	70	-8	+0	-0	+3	+7	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1050	948	213	40	5	23	75	272	18	15	5	225	294	350	644	126	289	26	7	275	69	-37	+1	-0	+11	+30	0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	132	25	3	14	46	168	11	9	3	225	293	349	642	124	289	26	7	275	69	-23	+1	-0	+7	+18	0.3
Career	—			—	2602	2338	497	94	11	47	178	682	65	35	17	213	287	322	609	110	277	26	7	274	68	-94	+0	-1	+28	+74	0.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	124	23	3	12	44	170	16	9	4	212	285	324	609	111	277	26	7	274	68	-24	+0	-0	+7	+18	0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL Athletics	—	143	115	29	8	18	19	8	1	3	252	390	322	712	70	299	13	13	334	114	+2	-1	—	—	+4	0.5
2023	19	A	Stockton Ports	—	53	47	7	0	3	12	2	0	1	149	231	149	380		194	23	6	187	1	-6	-0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2023	19	ROK	ACL Athletics	—	31	28	4	0	3	7	0	0	1	143	226	143	369		190	23	10	184	-1	-4	-0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2024	20	A	Stockton Ports	—	174	149	32	8	8	32	16	2	1	215	324	268	592	54	274	18	5	284	75	-5	+0	—	—	+5	0.0
2024	20	ROK	ACL Athletics	—	32	25	3	0	5	7	1	2	1	120	290	120	410		158	22	16	217	24	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2025	21	A+	Lansing Lugnuts	—	43	37	3	2	5	16	0	0	0	81	190	135	326	54	143	37	12	162	-18	-6	+0	—	—	+1	-0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,050	23	16	226	292	354	+11	+9	1.9	1.9
	/162	664	15	10	226	292	354	+7.1	+5.7	1.2	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Elvis Rijo (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	210/276/307	97	283	1	1	27%	6%	63	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Santana 2022 · AA	23	39	42→45	47→50	39	198/255/299	101	269	10	10	30%	5%	51	-1.7	211/272/334	123	278	13	9	28%	6%	67	-0.5	201/263/321	120	259	14	7	27%	6%	57	-0.7
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Zach Green 2016 · A	22	43→41	41→55	49→40	39	210/252/306	96	286	8	6	29%	5%	50	-1.7	204/259/337	133	322	14	3	39%	5%	63	-0.8	192/267/372	179	300	23	1	42%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Corey Joyce 2021 · A	22	45	40→45	50	40	213/269/309	96	308	8	8	32%	6%	59	-1.1	202/290/319	117	298	12	12	34%	9%	72	-0.2	214/316/327	113	306	11	14	30%	10%	82	+0.3
✕Blake Hunt 2021 · A	22	41	39→50	49→40	43	198/254/288	90	263	6	6	26%	6%	47	-1.9	192/251/307	115	278	12	4	34%	6%	52	-1.6	207/268/341	134	263	14	2	26%	6%	65	-0.3
✕Tyler Kolodny 2010 · A	22	40→36	43→45	49→50	41	200/271/316	116	273	11	8	30%	6%	63	-0.9	212/286/347	135	281	14	10	29%	6%	78	+0.2	214/295/369	155	271	17	10	26%	6%	84	+0.2
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	39→49	38→45	48→50	44	184/272/269	85	267	5	10	31%	8%	52	-1.6	206/276/298	92	284	6	11	28%	6%	60	-1.0	223/293/322	99	294	9	16	26%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Steven Baron 2013 · A	22	39	41→45	50	37	193/232/296	103	263	8	10	30%	4%	40	-2.4	194/233/281	87	280	5	9	31%	5%	36	-2.7	240/300/311	71	326	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Franklin Tineo 2017 · A	22	36	38→45	46→50	45	179/245/253	75	239	5	10	26%	7%	35	-2.8	198/277/298	100	282	8	10	30%	8%	60	-1.0	201/298/325	124	262	10	12	25%	10%	74	-0.0
✕Jhoneiker Betancourt 2023 · A	23	42	40→55	50→40	43	203/279/294	91	279	7	6	28%	7%	60	-1.0	209/281/354	145	278	18	4	31%	7%	78	+0.2	186/269/361	175	235	26	0	33%	7%	79	+0.1
●Cody Freeman 2023 · A	22	40→50	42→50	47→50	46	200/263/300	99	240	11	9	22%	6%	54	-1.4	218/266/352	134	258	15	9	21%	5%	69	-0.4	233/276/386	153	263	18	9	19%	5%	80	+0.3
✕Wendell Rijo 2018 · AA	22	40→41	38→55	45→50	39	194/248/274	81	270	6	11	30%	5%	41	-2.3	205/260/312	107	271	11	7	27%	6%	56	-1.3	208/263/371	163	264	20	14	29%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2022 · A	22	41→51	42→45	48→50	38	205/253/308	104	278	10	9	30%	5%	52	-1.6	235/290/335	100	323	11	12	29%	6%	75	-0.0	235/295/324	88	326	9	12	29%	7%	70	-0.3
✕Ramon Mendoza 2023 · A	22	40→50	37→45	48→45	45	189/266/266	77	278	4	7	31%	8%	47	-1.9	210/282/308	98	299	8	5	30%	8%	65	-0.7	232/306/347	116	310	11	3	27%	9%	82	+0.3
✕Jake Rogers 2018 · A	23	41→40	43→60	47→45	41	202/262/316	114	279	9	10	30%	6%	58	-1.2	196/266/342	146	271	17	7	33%	7%	68	-0.5	213/288/429	216	271	31	1	33%	8%	98	+0.8
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	42	40→50	51→45	39	201/261/291	91	297	7	7	33%	6%	51	-1.7	195/269/309	114	298	13	8	37%	7%	61	-1.0	180/256/293	113	258	15	7	35%	7%	49	-0.7
●Eric Fryer 2008 · A	22	39→49	40→45	45→50	42	192/246/281	88	253	7	7	27%	6%	42	-2.3	243/302/354	111	314	9	10	24%	7%	85	+0.7	247/310/361	114	319	9	11	24%	7%	86	+0.5
✕Andy Paz 2015 · A	22	38	38→40	45	44	185/245/261	75	253	6	5	28%	7%	37	-2.7	210/264/277	67	293	4	6	28%	7%	48	-1.9	226/270/274	48	296	3	7	23%	6%	46	-0.7
✕Alexander Campos 2022 · A	22	43	41→40	46→45	48	206/290/308	102	278	8	6	27%	9%	69	-0.4	221/302/309	88	318	7	6	30%	9%	74	-0.1	242/332/316	74	335	8	6	27%	10%	86	+0.3
✕Glenn Santiago 2023 · A	22	42	41→40	46→45	39	204/256/303	99	288	9	8	31%	6%	52	-1.6	199/262/282	83	293	7	9	32%	7%	50	-1.8	183/253/253	70	269	6	8	32%	7%	37	-1.1