Elvis Rijo — OGILVIE

Elvis RijoSS Lansing Lugnuts

Age 22 R/R 5'11" / 165 lbs A+ HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 75 proj PA

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .277 / .307

PA6

HR0

K%27

BB%6

ISO98

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	18	ROK	DSL Athletics	—	143	115	29	8	0	0	18	19	8	1	3	252	390	322	712	70	299	13	13	334	112	+2	-1	—	—	+3	0.4
2023	19	A	Stockton Ports	—	53	47	7	0	0	0	3	12	2	0	1	149	231	149	380		194	23	6	187	13	-6	-0	—	—	+1	-0.5
2023	19	ROK	ACL Athletics	—	31	28	4	0	0	0	3	7	0	0	1	143	226	143	369		190	23	10	184	11	-3	-0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2024	20	A	Stockton Ports	—	174	149	32	8	0	0	8	32	16	2	1	215	324	268	592	54	274	18	5	284	78	-5	+0	—	—	+4	-0.1
2024	20	ROK	ACL Athletics	—	32	25	3	0	0	0	5	7	1	2	1	120	290	120	410		158	22	16	217	33	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2025	21	A+	Lansing Lugnuts	—	43	37	3	2	0	0	5	16	0	0	0	81	190	135	326	54	143	37	12	162	-4	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	—	143	122	23	6	0	0	11	29	8	1	3	189	298	238	536	49	239	20	8	245	52	-8	-1	—	—	+3	-0.6
2023	19	A MLE	Stockton Ports	—	53	48	6	0	0	0	2	16	2	0	1	125	192	125	317		180	30	4	154	-10	-7	-0	—	—	+1	-0.6
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	—	31	29	3	0	0	0	2	10	0	0	1	103	161	103	265		160	32	6	128	-27	-5	-0	—	—	+1	-0.5
2024	20	A MLE	Stockton Ports	—	174	151	29	7	0	0	6	42	16	2	1	192	295	238	533	46	254	24	3	235	45	-11	+0	—	—	+4	-0.8
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	—	32	27	2	0	0	0	3	10	1	2	1	74	194	74	268		126	31	9	155	-9	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2025	21	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	43	39	2	1	0	0	3	22	0	0	0	51	119	77	196	26	106	51	7	102	-45	-7	+0	—	—	+1	-0.7
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	—	143	122	23	6	0	0	11	29	8	1	3	189	298	238	536	49	245	20	8	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	—	143	115	29	8	0	0	18	19	8	1	3	252	390	322	712	70	299	13	13	334	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	84	77	9	0	0	0	4	26	2	0	2	117	181	117	298		173	31	5	144	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	84	75	11	0	0	0	6	19	2	0	2	147	229	147	376		193	23	7	186	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	206	178	31	7	0	0	9	52	17	4	2	174	279	213	493	39	244	25	4	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	206	174	35	8	0	0	13	39	17	4	2	201	319	247	566	46	257	19	6	273	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	43	39	2	1	0	0	3	22	0	0	0	51	119	77	196	26	118	51	7	102	-45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	—	43	37	3	2	0	0	5	16	0	0	0	81	190	135	326	54	143	37	12	162	-45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	—	143	123	23	6	0	0	11	29	8	1	3	187	298	236	534	49	239	20	8	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	84	78	9	0	0	0	4	26	2	0	2	115	181	115	296		173	31	5	144	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	206	178	31	7	0	0	9	52	17	4	2	174	279	213	493	39	234	25	4	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	43	40	2	1	0	0	3	22	0	0	0	50	119	75	194	25	106	51	7	102	-45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	84	78	9	0	0	0	4	26	2	0	2	115	181	115	296		173	31	5	144	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	206	178	31	7	0	0	9	52	17	4	2	174	279	213	493	39	234	25	4	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	43	40	2	1	0	0	3	22	0	0	0	50	119	75	194	25	106	51	7	102	-45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	22	MLB MLE	OAK	0%	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	167	167	167	333		283	33	0	268	67	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	OAK	35%	163	148	32	6	1	3	11	43	3	2	1	216	284	331	615	115	285	26	7	279	75	-5	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	OAK	46%	279	253	58	11	2	6	19	72	5	4	1	229	296	360	656	130	286	26	7	286	80	-7	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	OAK	52%	352	318	72	13	2	8	25	90	6	5	2	226	295	355	650	129	287	26	7	291	83	-7	+0	+0	+4	+8	0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	OAK	54%	400	361	81	15	2	9	29	102	7	6	2	224	295	352	647	127	287	26	7	294	85	-7	+0	+0	+4	+9	0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	OAK	54%	423	381	86	16	2	10	31	108	8	6	2	226	298	357	655	131	287	26	7	294	85	-7	+0	+0	+5	+9	0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	OAK	54%	434	391	88	16	2	10	32	111	8	6	2	225	297	353	650	128	287	26	7	293	85	-8	+0	-1	+5	+9	0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	OAK	53%	433	390	87	16	2	10	32	112	8	6	2	223	295	351	647	128	286	26	7	291	83	-9	+0	-1	+5	+9	0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	OAK	57%	430	387	86	16	2	9	32	112	8	5	1	222	295	344	639	121	285	26	7	289	82	-9	+1	-2	+5	+9	0.3
2035	31	MLB MLE	OAK	55%	419	378	83	15	2	9	31	111	7	4	1	220	291	341	632	122	283	26	7	285	79	-10	+0	-3	+4	+9	0.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	OAK	58%	403	363	78	14	2	8	30	108	7	3	1	215	287	331	618	116	280	27	7	280	75	-12	+0	-4	+4	+9	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	OAK	35%	56	51	11	2	0	1	4	15	1	1	0	216	286	314	599	98	290	27	7	268	75	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	OAK	46%	129	117	27	5	1	3	9	33	2	2	1	231	297	368	664	137	292	26	7	276	80	-3	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	OAK	52%	182	164	37	7	1	4	13	47	3	3	1	226	294	354	648	128	293	26	7	281	83	-4	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	OAK	54%	217	196	45	9	1	5	15	55	4	3	1	230	298	362	660	133	293	25	7	284	85	-4	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	OAK	54%	230	207	47	9	1	5	17	59	4	3	1	227	298	353	651	126	293	26	7	284	85	-4	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	OAK	54%	236	213	48	9	1	5	17	61	4	3	1	225	295	347	642	122	292	26	7	283	85	-4	+0	-0	+3	+5	0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	OAK	53%	230	207	47	9	1	5	17	60	4	3	1	227	298	353	651	126	292	26	7	281	83	-5	+0	-1	+2	+5	0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	OAK	57%	244	220	50	10	1	5	18	64	4	3	1	227	298	350	648	123	291	26	7	279	82	-5	+0	-1	+3	+5	0.2
2035	31	MLB CTX	OAK	55%	229	206	46	9	1	5	17	61	4	2	1	223	295	350	645	126	289	27	7	275	79	-6	+0	-2	+2	+5	0.0
2036	32	MLB CTX	OAK	58%	233	210	47	9	1	5	17	63	4	2	1	224	294	348	642	124	285	27	7	270	75	-7	+0	-2	+2	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1986	1791	405	78	9	43	144	518	34	25	9	226	296	352	648	126	292	26	7	279	75	-43	+1	-6	+21	+43	1.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	133	26	3	14	47	170	11	8	3	227	297	353	650	126	294	26	7	279	75	-14	+0	-2	+7	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	4218	3792	817	152	19	82	299	1100	94	52	22	215	289	330	620	115	279	26	7	279	75	-82	+3	-10	+40	+81	3.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	126	23	3	13	46	170	14	8	3	216	288	332	621	116	280	26	7	279	75	-14	+1	-2	+7	+14	0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#5Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#6Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	3.0	1,986	43	26	224	291	350	+21	+15	3.4	3.2
/162	664	14	9	+7.1	+5.0	1.1	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Elvis Rijo (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	210/277/307	97	283	1	1	27%	6%	67	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Zach Green 2016 · A	22	42	40→55	49→40	39	208/248/301	93	281	8	6	28%	5%	53	-2.1	203/258/334	131	317	14	3	39%	5%	66	-1.1	194/261/373	179	295	22	1	40%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	38→48	39→45	48→50	45	182/274/268	86	264	6	10	31%	8%	58	-1.7	206/278/301	95	283	7	11	28%	7%	66	-1.1	217/289/313	96	287	8	16	26%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Franklin Tineo 2017 · A	22	36	38→45	46→50	45	179/245/253	75	239	5	10	26%	7%	42	-2.9	198/277/298	100	282	8	10	30%	8%	65	-1.2	201/298/325	124	262	10	12	25%	10%	77	-0.1
✕Luis Santana 2022 · AA	23	40	43→45	47→50	40	201/259/308	107	270	11	10	29%	6%	60	-1.6	217/276/340	123	279	13	9	26%	6%	74	-0.5	208/269/326	118	262	13	7	25%	5%	65	-0.7
✕Glenn Santiago 2023 · A	22	41	41→40	46→45	39	201/255/297	96	286	8	8	32%	6%	55	-1.9	198/263/285	87	291	7	9	32%	7%	57	-1.8	182/254/257	75	267	7	8	32%	8%	46	-1.1
✕Javier Valdes 2021 · A	22	40	37→50	50→30	45	190/266/263	73	266	4	7	28%	8%	53	-2.1	211/295/322	111	281	11	5	27%	8%	78	-0.3	208/306/343	135	260	16	3	25%	9%	85	+0.1
✕Steven Baron 2013 · A	22	39	41→45	50	37	193/231/293	99	262	8	10	29%	4%	45	-2.7	197/236/286	89	278	6	9	30%	5%	45	-2.7	237/293/310	73	315	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
●Alonzo Harris 2011 · A	22	39→49	42→50	51→60	36	198/235/300	101	269	9	13	30%	4%	48	-2.5	224/267/314	90	290	7	19	24%	5%	63	-1.3	235/291/381	146	283	16	35	22%	7%	87	+0.3
✕Anderson Gomes 2007 · A	22	42→40	42→45	47→50	39	207/256/314	107	282	10	9	30%	5%	60	-1.6	223/276/335	112	301	11	7	28%	6%	72	-0.7	229/283/339	110	302	11	5	27%	7%	75	-0.2
✕Christopher Familia 2022 · A	22	42	38→55	47→45	43	200/270/287	86	279	5	10	28%	7%	59	-1.6	215/282/373	158	275	20	5	29%	7%	84	+0.2	208/273/389	181	258	25	2	30%	6%	81	-0.0
✕Cody Freeman 2023 · A	22	41→51	43→50	47→50	46	204/266/306	103	244	12	9	22%	6%	63	-1.4	220/268/349	129	260	14	9	21%	5%	73	-0.6	248/292/385	137	277	15	10	16%	5%	89	+0.4
✕Adam Abraham 2009 · A	22	39→46	44→50	49→40	43	197/259/310	113	258	12	5	28%	7%	61	-1.5	217/273/330	113	277	10	4	24%	6%	70	-0.8	220/280/334	115	276	11	2	23%	7%	72	-0.3
✕Eric Fryer 2008 · A	22	39→49	40→45	45→50	42	192/246/281	88	253	7	7	27%	6%	49	-2.4	244/303/357	113	314	9	10	24%	7%	88	+0.4	250/315/367	117	323	9	11	24%	7%	91	+0.4
✕Ramon Mendoza 2023 · A	22	40→49	37→45	48→45	44	187/265/261	75	278	4	7	32%	8%	52	-2.2	212/285/310	98	296	8	5	29%	8%	70	-0.8	230/307/340	110	300	10	3	25%	9%	83	+0.0
✕Alejandro Selen 2011 · A	22	44	39→50	50→30	40	214/261/305	91	281	6	8	26%	5%	59	-1.6	225/267/362	137	331	14	3	35%	4%	75	-0.5	221/258/362	141	318	15	1	34%	3%	69	-0.4
✕Deibinson Romero 2010 · A	23	41→45	40→50	46→40	43	200/264/290	90	277	7	5	29%	7%	58	-1.7	209/275/318	109	276	11	3	27%	7%	69	-0.9	223/296/348	126	274	12	2	22%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Gerson Montilla 2012 · AA	22	40→47	42→50	48→45	38	198/244/308	109	261	9	8	28%	4%	54	-2.0	224/264/345	121	270	13	6	22%	5%	70	-0.9	226/266/344	118	270	13	5	21%	5%	68	-0.9
✕Anthony Seigler 2021 · A	22	42→39	37→45	49→55	47	200/278/275	74	283	5	6	29%	9%	60	-1.6	192/289/299	107	272	9	9	30%	11%	70	-0.8	219/309/345	126	268	10	25	21%	11%	85	+0.2
✕Daniel Schneemann 2019 · A	22	38→48	40→50	50	43	185/251/280	94	271	8	6	33%	8%	51	-2.3	211/270/297	86	293	7	9	28%	7%	61	-1.5	223/303/368	144	295	14	13	28%	10%	87	+0.3
✕Wendell Rijo 2018 · AA	22	41→43	38→50	45→50	40	196/251/276	79	270	6	11	28%	5%	49	-2.4	204/260/307	103	266	9	7	26%	6%	60	-1.6	208/265/349	141	264	16	14	28%	6%	69	-0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps