Tanner Jones

P Quad Cities River Bandits

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.7 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1056ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	AKC	9	7	40	4.02	3.12	20.0%	5.9%	—	K 14.8% · BB 6.9% · FIP 3.89
2026	23	A+KC	23	16	101	4.80	3.78	20.1%	7.8%	—	K 15.5% · BB 8.9% · FIP 4.65
2027PROJ	24	MLBKC	—	—	0	5.12	5.12	14.1%	9.3%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBKC	5	5	31	4.85	4.81	15.8%	9.0%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBKC	7	7	43	4.74	4.71	16.8%	8.8%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$3M+2

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control55Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.9, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 94%

CompsNick Belzer (age 23) · Cha Seung Baek (age 24) · Carlos Sano (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.12

FIP5.12

K%14.1%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%4.8%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	9	7	40	170	34	10	3	78%	4.5	14.8%	6.9%	7.9%	2.1%	4.02	3.89	—
2025	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	9	7	40	170	34	10	3	78%	4.5	14.8%	6.9%	7.9%	2.1%	4.02	3.89	—
2025	22	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	9	7	40	170	34	10	3	78%	4.5	20.0%	5.9%	14.1%	1.8%	4.02	3.12	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	23	16	101	437	88	34	11	70%	4.4	15.5%	8.9%	6.6%	3.1%	4.80	4.65	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	23	16	101	437	88	34	11	70%	4.4	15.5%	8.9%	6.6%	3.1%	4.80	4.65	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	23	16	101	437	88	34	11	70%	4.4	20.1%	7.8%	12.4%	2.5%	4.80	3.78	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	14.1%	9.3%	4.8%	3.0%	5.12	5.12	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	71	299	47	27	9	100%	6.4	15.8%	9.0%	6.8%	3.0%	4.97	4.93	+0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	KC	10	10	65	274	46	24	8	100%	6.5	16.8%	8.8%	7.9%	3.0%	4.86	4.83	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	KC	10	10	62	260	44	23	8	100%	6.2	17.0%	8.9%	8.2%	3.0%	4.83	4.83	+0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	KC	9	9	58	245	42	22	8	100%	6.5	17.0%	9.0%	8.1%	3.1%	4.87	4.90	+0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	KC	9	9	54	227	38	21	7	100%	6.0	16.8%	9.2%	7.6%	3.3%	4.97	5.03	+0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	KC	8	8	53	223	41	19	8	100%	6.6	18.4%	8.7%	9.7%	3.5%	4.95	4.94	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	KC	5	5	31	131	21	12	4	100%	6.2	15.8%	9.0%	6.8%	2.8%	4.85	4.81	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	KC	7	7	43	182	30	16	5	100%	6.1	16.8%	8.8%	7.9%	2.8%	4.74	4.71	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	48	203	35	18	6	100%	6.0	17.0%	8.9%	8.2%	2.8%	4.70	4.70	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	49	207	35	19	6	100%	6.1	17.0%	9.0%	8.1%	2.9%	4.74	4.77	+0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	47	198	33	18	6	100%	5.9	16.8%	9.2%	7.6%	3.0%	4.83	4.89	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	47	198	37	17	6	100%	5.9	18.4%	8.7%	9.7%	3.2%	4.81	4.80	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	43	265	1118	191	100	33	100%	6.2	17.1%	8.9%	8.1%	2.9%	4.77	4.40	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	144	76	25	100%	6.2	17.1%	8.9%	8.1%	2.9%	4.77	4.40	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		32	23	142	607	93	51	17	72%	4.4	15.3%	8.4%	6.9%	2.9%	4.57	4.44	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	32	200	857	131	72	24	72%	4.4	15.3%	8.4%	6.9%	2.9%	4.57	4.44	+1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 101 IPFIP 3.77 → 4.65 (+0.88)K% 20.1% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.14%	—	×0.770	15.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.78%	—	×1.150	8.95%
HR / BF /BF	2.52%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.15%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.77 → 4.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AColumbia Fireflies · 40 IPFIP 3.12 → 3.89 (+0.76)K% 20.0% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.740	14.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.88%	—	×1.180	6.94%
HR / BF /BF	1.76%	÷1.086	×1.300	2.11%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 3.12 → 3.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner Jones (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	14.1%	9.3%	3.0%	—	4.87	16.5%	7.6%	198	-0.25	—	—	—
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	87
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	85
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	85
Braden Olthoff R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	12.5%	8.0%	2.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	108	84
Matt Wise R 2000 · 5.35 FIP	24	SP-	5.35	12.3%	7.4%	4.3%	.266	4.98	23.7%	15.6%	49	-0.37	3.33	302	84
Justin Dillon R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	24	SP-	5.26	11.8%	8.8%	3.7%	.265	4.34	15.6%	9.1%	124	-0.92	3.65	239	83
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	83
Trenton Toplikar R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	14.8%	10.1%	2.2%	.248	5.39	16.5%	6.4%	123	+1.07	4.32	232	83
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	83
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	83
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	83
Alfredo Aceves R 2008 · 4.86 FIP	25	SP-	4.86	13.3%	8.3%	3.3%	.233	3.69	17.6%	10.9%	210	-1.17	3.53	541	83
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	83
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	82
Josh Banks R 2008 · 4.81 FIP	26	SP-	4.81	11.6%	7.3%	3.2%	.283	6.01	9.0%	6.0%	23	+1.20	4.81	108	82
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	82
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	81
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	81
Logan Shore R 2019 · 4.46 FIP	24	SP-	4.46	11.5%	10.5%	1.8%	.274	4.87	16.7%	6.3%	125	+0.41	3.09	386	81
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	61	16.5%	9.0%	1.21	4.94
Lance Painter ('03)	2.2	56	16.7%	9.0%	1.32	5.24
Matt Whiteside ('05)	2.0	58	14.5%	8.8%	1.15	5.23
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Dave Tomlin ('72-'86, -2 WAR*)	2.6	64	18.0%*	8.6%*	0.87*	4.57*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*