Tanner Jones — OGILVIE

Tanner Jones P Quad Cities River Bandits

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.5 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

K%14.7%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%6.7%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	9	7	40	170	34	10	3	78%	4.5	14.8%	6.9%	7.9%	2.1%	4.02	3.89	—
2025	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	9	7	40	170	34	10	3	78%	4.5	14.8%	6.9%	7.9%	2.1%	4.02	3.89	—
2025	22	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	9	7	40	170	34	10	3	78%	4.5	20.0%	5.9%	14.1%	1.8%	4.02	3.12	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	23	16	101	437	88	34	11	70%	4.4	15.5%	8.9%	6.6%	3.1%	4.80	4.65	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	23	16	101	437	88	34	11	70%	4.4	15.5%	8.9%	6.6%	3.1%	4.80	4.65	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	KC	23	16	101	437	88	34	11	70%	4.4	20.1%	7.8%	12.4%	2.5%	4.80	3.77	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	KC	16	16	102	429	71	34	12	100%	6.4	16.5%	7.8%	8.7%	2.9%	4.72	4.67	+0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	103	435	76	33	13	100%	6.1	17.5%	7.7%	9.8%	2.9%	4.61	4.57	+0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	103	435	78	33	13	100%	6.1	17.9%	7.6%	10.3%	2.9%	4.55	4.52	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	KC	16	16	102	429	77	33	13	100%	6.3	18.0%	7.7%	10.3%	2.9%	4.55	4.55	+0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	KC	16	16	98	416	74	33	13	100%	6.2	17.9%	7.9%	10.0%	3.0%	4.60	4.64	+0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	KC	15	15	94	397	70	32	13	100%	6.3	17.7%	8.1%	9.6%	3.2%	4.70	4.77	+0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	88	374	65	31	13	100%	6.3	17.3%	8.4%	8.9%	3.4%	4.85	4.95	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	KC	7	7	44	186	31	15	5	100%	6.3	16.5%	7.8%	8.7%	2.7%	4.60	4.55	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	KC	11	11	68	287	50	22	8	100%	6.2	17.5%	7.7%	9.8%	2.7%	4.49	4.45	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	82	346	62	26	9	100%	6.3	17.9%	7.6%	10.3%	2.7%	4.43	4.40	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	87	367	66	28	10	100%	6.2	18.0%	7.7%	10.3%	2.7%	4.43	4.43	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	88	372	67	29	10	100%	6.3	17.9%	7.9%	10.0%	2.8%	4.47	4.51	+0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	86	363	64	29	11	100%	6.1	17.7%	8.1%	9.6%	3.0%	4.57	4.64	+0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	82	346	60	29	11	100%	6.3	17.3%	8.4%	8.9%	3.1%	4.71	4.81	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		86	86	535	2260	398	179	64	100%	6.2	17.6%	7.9%	9.7%	2.8%	4.52	4.16	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	149	67	24	100%	6.2	17.6%	7.9%	9.7%	2.8%	4.52	4.16	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		32	23	142	607	93	51	17	72%	4.4	15.3%	8.4%	6.9%	2.9%	4.57	4.44	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	32	200	857	131	72	24	72%	4.4	15.3%	8.4%	6.9%	2.9%	4.57	4.44	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner Jones (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	14.7%	8.1%	2.9%	—	4.59	17.3%	9.6%	308	-0.27	—	—	—
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	89
Ubert Mejias R 2023 · 3.74 FIP	22	SP-	3.74	14.2%	7.9%	1.5%	.326	4.43	14.0%	8.0%	264	+0.69	3.74	326	86
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.4%	7.7%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	85
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	84
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	84
Matthew DeRosier R 2017 · 3.89 FIP	23	SP-	3.89	16.6%	6.6%	2.5%	.294	5.67	15.1%	6.0%	57	+1.78	2.72	200	84
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	84
Kevin Folman R 2018 · 4.54 FIP	23	SP	4.54	13.2%	5.9%	3.3%	.312	5.37	16.0%	6.4%	122	+0.83	4.54	161	83
Garrett Burhenn R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	13.5%	8.4%	2.5%	.312	4.36	18.1%	10.2%	247	-0.03	4.30	433	83
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	83
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	83
Conor Fisk R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP-	4.77	11.2%	6.7%	3.2%	.282	4.20	15.2%	8.4%	352	-0.57	3.38	523	82
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	81
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	81
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	81
Cesar Gomez R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	14.0%	9.0%	1.9%	.364	4.89	16.1%	7.0%	196	+0.78	4.11	345	81
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	81
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	81
Chris Clarke R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SP	4.59	15.8%	6.7%	3.6%	.340	3.85	16.2%	9.8%	241	-0.74	3.57	291	80
Braden Olthoff R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	12.5%	8.0%	2.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	108	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	93	17.3%	7.9%	1.17	4.66
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13