Tanner Jones
P
Quad Cities River Bandits
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION68 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 113
ERA4.96
FIP4.96
K%14.7%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%5.9%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 120 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 9 | 7 | 40 | 170 | 34 | 10 | 3 | 78% | 4.5 | 14.8% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 2.0% | 4.02 | 3.80 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 9 | 7 | 40 | 170 | 34 | 10 | 3 | 78% | 4.5 | 20.0% | 5.9% | 14.1% | 1.8% | 4.02 | 3.12 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 15 | 10 | 68 | 294 | 51 | 20 | 8 | 67% | 4.5 | 13.4% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 5.45 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | KC | 8 | 8 | 52 | 221 | 33 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.5 | 14.7% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 4.96 | 4.96 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | KC | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14.7% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.91 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | KC | — | — | 120 | 515 | 84 | 40 | 14 | — | — | 16.2% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 5.24 | 4.89 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | KC | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 14.7% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | KC | 8 | 8 | 54 | 227 | 38 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 6.7 | 16.6% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 4.82 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | KC | 8 | 8 | 54 | 230 | 41 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 6.8 | 17.6% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.71 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | KC | 8 | 8 | 54 | 230 | 42 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 6.8 | 18.1% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.65 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | KC | 8 | 8 | 54 | 226 | 41 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 6.7 | 18.3% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.65 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | KC | 8 | 8 | 52 | 220 | 40 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 6.5 | 18.1% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.70 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | KC | 4 | 4 | 23 | 97 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.6% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 4.77 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | KC | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 27 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.6% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.66 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | KC | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 33 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.1% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.60 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | KC | 7 | 7 | 46 | 194 | 35 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 6.6 | 18.3% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.60 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | KC | 7 | 7 | 46 | 194 | 35 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 6.6 | 18.1% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.65 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 30 | 30 | 195 | 822 | 147 | 71 | 23 | 100% | 6.5 | 17.9% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.64 | 4.25 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 31 | 31 | 200 | 844 | 151 | 73 | 24 | 100% | 6.4 | 17.9% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.64 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 24 | 17 | 108 | 464 | 64 | 35 | 13 | 71% | 4.5 | 13.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 4.92 | 4.45 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 31 | 200 | 859 | 119 | 64 | 25 | 71% | 4.5 | 13.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 4.92 | 4.45 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tanner Jones (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.96 | 14.7% | 8.9% | 2.9% | — | 4.68 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 162 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| Nick Belzer R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 14.5% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .291 | 4.55 | 12.8% | 4.2% | 63 | +0.32 | 4.23 | 112 | 91 |
| Jordan Geber R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 15.3% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .341 | 4.51 | 15.5% | 7.5% | 176 | -0.63 | 4.16 | 239 | 87 |
| Matt Ager R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 146 | 85 |
| Michael Ross R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.05 | 16.3% | 9.9% | 3.8% | .275 | 5.83 | 12.5% | 3.6% | 64 | +0.78 | 5.05 | 146 | 85 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 84 |
| Bradley Brehmer R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.40 | 14.6% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .349 | 2.88 | 21.3% | 13.7% | 82 | -1.52 | 2.76 | 153 | 84 |
| Nick Payero R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.06 | 16.5% | 6.3% | 2.8% | .285 | 5.72 | 16.6% | 4.6% | 107 | +1.66 | 4.06 | 178 | 84 |
| Garrett Burhenn R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.60 | 13.5% | 8.4% | 2.9% | .312 | 4.38 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 247 | -0.22 | 4.19 | 433 | 83 |
| Matthew DeRosier R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.04 | 16.6% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .294 | 5.49 | 15.1% | 6.0% | 57 | +1.45 | 2.72 | 200 | 83 |
| Nick Dean R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .275 | 3.50 | 21.7% | 14.6% | 111 | -0.50 | 2.73 | 202 | 82 |
| Deivi Villafana R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.22 | 14.9% | 6.1% | 2.9% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 109 | 82 |
| Conor Fisk R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.74 | 11.2% | 6.7% | 3.2% | .282 | 4.13 | 15.2% | 8.4% | 352 | -0.61 | 3.32 | 523 | 82 |
| Kevin Folman R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.54 | 13.2% | 5.9% | 3.3% | .312 | 5.71 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 122 | +1.17 | 4.54 | 161 | 82 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 81 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.01 | 3.42 | 237 | 81 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 81 |
| Carlos Sano R 2028 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 81 |
| Tyler Davis R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.84 | 16.7% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .349 | 4.39 | 12.0% | 6.5% | 196 | -0.45 | 4.17 | 294 | 81 |
| Logan Martin R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.93 | 16.9% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .278 | 4.47 | 17.1% | 5.7% | 121 | +0.54 | 3.93 | 223 | 80 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | .300 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 107 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 53 | 17.3% | 8.7% | 1.13 | 4.75 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |