Jason Doktorczyk

P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs A+ peak 0.6 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	AMIN	21	12	86	5.00	3.73	22.5%	7.4%	—	K 16.7% · BB 8.8% · FIP 5.04
2026	23	A+MIN	12	7	38	7.34	4.94	17.5%	10.2%	—	K 13.5% · BB 11.7% · FIP 5.77
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIN	9	9	57	5.48	5.48	13.8%	10.9%	-0.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBMIN	5	5	34	5.29	5.24	15.7%	10.5%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBMIN	8	8	52	5.16	5.12	16.8%	10.4%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control50Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsDavid Rodriguez (age 22) · Justin Dillon (age 24) · Ryan Jensen (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.48

FIP5.48

K%13.8%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%2.8%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	21	12	86	391	88	29	11	57%	4.1	16.7%	8.8%	7.9%	4.1%	5.00	5.04	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	21	12	86	391	88	29	11	57%	4.1	16.7%	8.8%	7.9%	4.1%	5.00	5.04	—
2025	22	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	21	12	86	391	88	29	11	57%	4.1	22.5%	7.4%	15.1%	2.8%	5.00	3.73	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	12	7	38	177	31	18	6	58%	3.2	13.5%	11.7%	1.8%	4.2%	7.34	5.77	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	12	7	38	177	31	18	6	58%	3.2	13.5%	11.7%	1.8%	4.2%	7.34	5.77	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	12	7	38	177	31	18	6	58%	3.2	17.5%	10.2%	7.3%	3.4%	7.34	4.94	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIN	9	9	57	241	33	26	8	100%	6.3	13.8%	10.9%	2.8%	3.2%	5.48	5.48	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	79	332	52	35	11	100%	6.6	15.7%	10.5%	5.2%	3.2%	5.29	5.24	-0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	79	332	56	34	11	100%	6.6	16.8%	10.4%	6.4%	3.2%	5.16	5.12	-0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	78	327	56	34	11	100%	6.5	17.1%	10.4%	6.7%	3.2%	5.12	5.12	-0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	75	318	54	33	11	100%	6.3	17.2%	10.5%	6.7%	3.3%	5.15	5.19	-0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	72	303	51	32	11	100%	6.5	16.9%	10.7%	6.2%	3.5%	5.25	5.32	-0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	68	285	47	31	10	100%	6.1	16.6%	11.0%	5.5%	3.7%	5.40	5.49	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIN	5	5	34	144	23	15	5	100%	6.8	15.7%	10.5%	5.2%	3.2%	5.29	5.24	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	52	220	37	23	7	100%	6.5	16.8%	10.4%	6.4%	3.2%	5.16	5.12	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIN	10	10	60	253	43	26	8	100%	6.0	17.1%	10.4%	6.7%	3.2%	5.12	5.12	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIN	10	10	63	266	46	28	9	100%	6.3	17.2%	10.5%	6.7%	3.3%	5.15	5.19	-0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIN	10	10	63	266	45	29	9	100%	6.3	16.9%	10.7%	6.2%	3.5%	5.25	5.32	-0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIN	10	10	61	258	43	28	9	100%	6.1	16.6%	11.0%	5.5%	3.7%	5.40	5.49	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	53	333	1405	236	149	47	100%	6.3	16.8%	10.6%	6.2%	3.4%	5.22	4.87	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	142	90	28	100%	6.3	16.8%	10.6%	6.2%	3.4%	5.22	4.87	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		33	19	124	568	89	55	23	58%	3.8	15.7%	9.7%	6.0%	4.1%	5.72	5.27	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	31	200	914	143	88	38	58%	3.8	15.7%	9.7%	6.0%	4.1%	5.72	5.27	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jason Doktorczyk (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.48	13.8%	10.9%	3.2%	—	5.16	16.5%	6.1%	235	-0.32	—	—	—
David Rodriguez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP-	4.50	13.5%	11.7%	1.9%	.316	3.85	16.9%	9.9%	125	-0.65	3.80	184	85
Justin Dillon R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	24	SP-	5.26	11.8%	8.8%	3.7%	.265	4.34	15.6%	9.1%	124	-0.92	3.65	239	84
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	84
Jonathan Hughes R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SP-	4.60	12.9%	12.5%	1.8%	.351	3.79	16.5%	6.2%	146	-0.81	3.44	219	83
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	83
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	82
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	82
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	82
Zach Miner R 2006 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP-	4.35	14.8%	7.8%	2.8%	.300	4.24	13.8%	4.6%	264	-0.11	3.55	386	82
Felipe Gonzalez R 2016 · 5.47 FIP	24	SP-	5.47	14.7%	10.6%	4.1%	.330	4.12	19.9%	10.4%	139	-1.35	3.27	339	82
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	81
Jeff Manship R 2009 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	14.4%	10.3%	2.7%	.330	4.23	14.9%	9.5%	51	-0.46	2.83	250	81
Dane Myers R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	23	SW	5.32	12.2%	11.5%	3.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.26	125	80
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	80
Marco Camarena R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	11.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.365	3.75	8.4%	0.9%	73	-0.74	3.75	142	80
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	80
Lauro Ramirez R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	25	SP-	5.80	9.5%	10.1%	4.1%	.382	4.99	7.2%	-3.4%	90	-0.81	4.99	140	80
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	80
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	79
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	72	16.4%	10.6%	1.29	5.25
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Lance Painter ('03)	2.2	56	16.7%	9.0%	1.32	5.24
Lance Cormier ('11)	2.3	67	13.0%	10.7%	1.25	5.07
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Fred Scherman ('69-'76, 1 WAR*)	2.7	77	18.0%*	10.0%*	1.17*	4.29*