Tom Guerrero — OGILVIE

Tom GuerreroSS DSL Padres Brown

Age 21 R/R 6'0" / 170 lbs ROK HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 75 proj PA

wRC+†47

AVG/OBP/SLG.177 / .259 / .246

PA75

HR0

K%30

BB%9

ISO69

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	18	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	47	41	6	1	0	0	5	18	0	0	1	146	239	171	410	24	250	38	11	198	-31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	158	125	19	9	0	0	29	36	3	1	2	152	325	224	549	72	211	23	18	272	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	47	43	4	1	0	0	3	23	0	0	1	93	152	116	268	23	163	49	6	123	-31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	158	134	13	6	0	0	20	43	3	1	2	97	229	142	371	45	132	27	13	181	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	47	43	4	1	0	0	3	23	0	0	1	93	152	116	268	23	190	49	6	123	-31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	—	47	41	6	1	0	0	5	18	0	0	1	146	239	171	410	24	250	38	11	198	-31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	158	134	13	6	0	0	20	43	3	1	2	97	229	142	371	45	141	27	13	181	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	—	158	125	19	9	0	0	29	36	3	1	2	152	325	224	549	72	211	23	18	272	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	47	44	4	1	0	0	3	23	0	0	1	91	152	114	266	23	163	49	6	123	-31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	158	134	13	6	0	0	20	43	3	1	2	97	229	142	371	45	132	27	13	181	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	47	44	4	1	0	0	3	23	0	0	1	91	152	114	266	23	163	49	6	123	-31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	158	134	13	6	0	0	20	43	3	1	2	97	229	142	371	45	132	27	13	181	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	SD	0%	268	239	42	9	1	1	24	79	3	3	1	179	261	248	509	69	257	29	9	237	47	-17	+0	+0	+3	+6	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	SD	34%	119	106	20	4	1	1	11	35	1	1	1	184	266	262	528	78	260	29	9	245	52	-7	-0	+0	+1	+3	-0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	SD	34%	41	37	6	1	0	0	4	12	0	0	0	181	263	256	519	76	255	29	10	241	52	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	41	37	6	1	0	0	4	12	0	0	0	162	244	189	433	27	240	29	10	241	24	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	95	16	0	0	63	190	0	0	0	162	243	189	432	27	239	29	10	241	24	-37	+0	+0	+7	+14	-1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	399	350	49	14	1	1	41	123	5	3	4	140	240	194	434	54	210	31	10	204	24	-12	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	570	81	23	2	2	67	200	8	5	7	142	242	200	442	58	212	31	10	204	24	-39	+0	+0	+7	+14	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tom Guerrero (OGILVIE)	21	20	20	40	60	177/259/246	69	257	0	1	30%	9%	47	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Franklin Tineo 2016 · A	21	34	36→40	41→50	50	164/251/229	65	218	4	7	25%	9%	40	-3.0	171/250/245	74	225	5	10	24%	8%	43	-2.8	151/236/222	71	188	5	13	21%	9%	31	-1.3
✕Willy Diaz 2015 · A	21	33	35→40	45→40	50	160/258/217	57	223	3	5	27%	10%	41	-3.0	176/256/247	71	278	4	4	35%	8%	46	-2.6	168/246/241	74	269	4	2	36%	8%	39	-1.1
✕Luis Sanchez 2008 · A	21	37	36→30	45→40	45	179/256/239	60	261	4	7	31%	8%	44	-2.8	203/263/257	54	283	2	4	27%	7%	49	-2.4	198/256/242	45	274	1	2	26%	7%	41	-1.4
✕Jesus Rojas 2007 · A	21	39	36→30	42→45	50	187/263/251	64	235	4	6	21%	8%	49	-2.4	223/284/311	88	288	7	5	23%	8%	70	-0.9	254/309/352	98	317	9	1	22%	8%	88	+0.2
✕Victor Duarte 2022 · A	21	38	38→30	48→45	42	185/249/264	79	253	5	7	28%	6%	47	-2.6	199/274/279	80	289	6	6	31%	7%	59	-1.6	182/251/245	63	250	5	11	28%	7%	41	-0.8
✕Luis Rubio 2022 · A	20	37	34→30	44→45	43	175/249/228	53	281	2	7	36%	9%	38	-3.2	183/251/238	55	283	2	8	33%	8%	41	-3.0	157/234/187	30	233	0	8	30%	8%	21	-1.0
✕Elio Prado 2023 · A	21	43→37	36→40	46→50	48	198/289/264	65	284	4	6	29%	9%	62	-1.4	193/263/288	95	261	9	12	28%	7%	57	-1.8	178/246/269	91	241	10	14	29%	7%	44	-1.5
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	37	37→30	46→55	50	177/256/249	71	223	4	9	21%	8%	46	-2.6	192/277/264	72	230	5	17	18%	10%	57	-1.8	176/273/236	60	201	6	25	15%	11%	49	-0.8
✕Jheremy Vargas 2024 · A	21	38	36→30	46→55	48	180/271/242	61	272	4	12	32%	10%	51	-2.3	194/260/252	58	257	4	16	24%	8%	48	-2.5	188/252/233	45	242	3	17	22%	7%	38	-1.6
✕Yoan Bravo 2022 · A	20	35	34→30	41→50	49	163/264/214	51	257	2	9	34%	11%	42	-2.9	180/260/242	62	260	3	8	29%	9%	46	-2.6	115/215/143	28	157	2	9	26%	10%	6	-1.1
✕Ariel Baez 2012 · A	21	36	38→40	43→45	46	176/252/255	79	230	5	5	25%	7%	47	-2.6	186/247/259	73	254	4	6	27%	6%	44	-2.8	148/209/202	54	199	2	6	25%	6%	15	-1.5
✕Rafael Medina 2013 · A	21	39	36→40	46→45	48	188/256/250	62	241	4	5	23%	8%	46	-2.6	204/253/280	76	245	5	4	18%	5%	51	-2.3	196/241/265	69	222	6	2	14%	5%	42	-0.8
✕Anthony Rodriguez 2016 · A	20	35	37→30	39→45	40	171/236/242	71	239	4	3	29%	6%	36	-3.3	159/247/221	62	227	4	5	29%	9%	38	-3.2	120/231/166	46	169	3	4	28%	10%	18	-1.7
✕Diego Gonzalez 2024 · A	21	43	37→40	41→40	43	203/259/272	68	273	4	6	26%	6%	51	-2.2	192/262/262	70	275	6	4	30%	8%	51	-2.3	164/244/217	52	234	5	2	30%	8%	33	-1.2
✕Daniel Berg 2006 · A	21	38	37→40	44→40	40	184/249/253	69	256	5	9	29%	6%	45	-2.7	189/255/279	90	281	7	4	33%	7%	52	-2.2	188/258/276	89	278	8	2	33%	7%	51	-1.2
✕Hector Martinez 2022 · A	21	40	35→30	46→50	45	187/257/244	56	259	2	7	27%	8%	45	-2.7	196/250/267	71	299	4	5	33%	6%	47	-2.6	154/201/211	57	237	3	0	35%	6%	13	-0.9
✕Geoandry Montilla 2017 · A	21	40	38→40	45→50	49	193/267/274	81	247	6	9	23%	8%	55	-1.9	189/257/281	92	297	6	8	36%	7%	53	-2.1	129/200/229	100	234	8	7	45%	7%	19	-1.2
✕Elvis Rijo 2024 · A	20	39	35→30	39→45	44	183/256/237	54	245	2	5	25%	7%	43	-2.8	185/260/245	60	268	2	6	30%	6%	47	-2.6	173/262/211	38	243	0	6	26%	4%	38	-1.1
✕Jose Sanabria 2023 · A	20	40	35→30	45→50	48	187/264/246	60	252	3	9	25%	8%	49	-2.4	193/264/245	52	294	2	10	32%	8%	47	-2.5	182/252/224	43	284	1	11	34%	8%	35	-1.5
✕Juan Zabala 2019 · A	20	37	34→40	43→50	51	173/260/225	52	223	1	7	22%	9%	42	-2.9	187/250/272	85	285	6	6	34%	6%	49	-2.4	205/266/287	81	283	8	16	29%	7%	55	-0.8