David Carrera

OF DSL NYY Bombers

Age 20 R/R 6'3" / 180 lbs ROK HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	ROKDSL NYY Bombe…	167	.266/.427/.336	2	14	53	—	.175/.311/.212
2026	19	ROKDSL NYY Bombe…	225	.333/.507/.594	9	8	91	—	.193/.345/.326
2027PROJ0% MLB	20	MLBNYY	335	.203/.291/.287	3	7	67	-0.3
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBNYY	92	.209/.297/.307	1	2	73	-0.2
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBNYY	183	.213/.300/.320	3	4	77	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

wOBA98

wRC+96

Chase%96

ISO94

BB%91

K%66

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsRobert Gonzalez (age 20) · Jesus Hernandez (age 20) · Albertson Asigen (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 194 proj PA

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .289 / .285

PA194

HR2

K%27

BB%10

ISO84

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	122	98	27	10	2	0	15	32	7	11	2	276	408	418	827	143	397	26	12	371	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	167	128	34	3	0	2	34	37	2	14	6	266	427	336	763	70	348	22	20	356	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	225	165	55	12	2	9	52	41	6	8	5	333	507	594	1.101	261	393	18	23	476	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	122	103	18	6	1	0	10	39	7	11	2	175	292	252	544	78	253	32	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	167	137	24	2	0	1	25	45	2	14	6	175	311	212	523	36	232	27	15	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	225	181	35	7	1	5	36	50	6	8	5	193	345	326	671	133	233	22	16	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	122	103	18	6	1	0	10	39	7	11	2	175	292	252	544	78	273	32	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	122	98	27	10	2	0	15	32	7	11	2	276	408	418	827	143	397	26	12	371	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	167	137	24	2	0	1	25	45	2	14	6	175	311	212	523	36	245	27	15	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	167	128	34	3	0	2	34	37	2	14	6	266	427	336	763	70	348	22	20	356	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	225	181	35	7	1	5	36	50	6	8	5	193	345	326	671	133	234	22	16	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	225	165	55	12	2	9	52	41	6	8	5	333	507	594	1.101	261	393	18	23	476	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	122	104	18	6	1	0	10	39	7	11	2	173	292	250	542	77	253	32	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	167	138	24	2	0	1	25	45	2	14	6	174	311	210	521	36	232	27	15	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	225	181	35	7	1	5	36	50	6	8	5	193	345	326	671	133	233	22	16	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	122	104	18	6	1	0	10	39	7	11	2	173	292	250	542	77	253	32	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	167	138	24	2	0	1	25	45	2	14	6	174	311	210	521	36	232	27	15	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	225	181	35	7	1	5	36	50	6	8	5	193	345	326	671	133	233	22	16	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	NYY	0%	335	296	60	11	2	3	32	89	4	7	2	203	291	287	578	84	275	27	10	267	67	-13	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	NYY	34%	267	235	49	9	2	3	26	70	4	6	2	208	296	303	599	95	277	26	10	275	73	-9	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.4
2029	22	MLB MLE	NYY	48%	377	333	71	13	2	6	36	97	5	9	2	212	300	316	616	104	279	26	10	282	77	-10	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.4
2030	23	MLB MLE	NYY	54%	449	397	86	15	3	8	43	115	6	11	3	216	302	326	628	110	281	26	10	286	80	-11	+1	+0	-3	+10	-0.3
2031	24	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	497	439	95	17	3	9	48	126	7	12	3	218	304	334	638	115	282	25	10	290	83	-10	+1	+0	-3	+11	-0.1
2032	25	MLB MLE	NYY	56%	524	462	102	19	3	10	50	132	7	13	3	220	306	339	645	119	283	25	10	293	84	-10	+1	+0	-3	+11	-0.0
2033	26	MLB MLE	NYY	56%	539	475	104	19	3	10	52	136	7	13	4	220	306	339	645	119	282	25	10	293	84	-10	+1	+0	-3	+12	-0.1
2034	27	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	544	480	105	19	3	10	52	138	7	13	4	219	305	336	641	118	282	25	10	291	83	-11	+1	+0	-3	+12	-0.1
2035	28	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	543	479	104	19	3	10	52	139	7	12	4	217	302	332	634	115	281	26	10	288	81	-12	+1	-1	-3	+12	-0.4
2036	29	MLB MLE	NYY	53%	535	473	101	18	3	9	51	138	6	11	3	214	300	325	625	111	279	26	10	285	79	-14	+1	-1	-3	+12	-0.6
2028	21	MLB CTX	NYY	34%	92	82	17	3	1	1	9	24	1	2	1	209	297	307	603	98	277	26	10	277	73	-3	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	NYY	48%	183	161	34	6	1	3	18	47	2	4	1	213	300	320	620	107	279	26	10	283	77	-5	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.2
2030	23	MLB CTX	NYY	54%	244	215	46	8	2	4	24	62	3	6	2	216	303	330	634	114	281	25	10	288	80	-6	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	275	243	53	9	2	5	26	70	4	7	2	219	305	338	644	119	282	25	9	292	83	-6	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.1
2032	25	MLB CTX	NYY	56%	293	259	57	10	2	6	28	74	4	7	2	221	307	344	651	123	283	25	10	295	84	-6	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.0
2033	26	MLB CTX	NYY	56%	303	267	60	11	2	6	29	76	4	7	2	221	306	344	651	123	282	25	10	295	84	-6	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.0
2034	27	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	301	265	58	10	2	6	29	76	4	7	2	220	305	341	647	121	282	25	10	293	83	-6	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.1
2035	28	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	298	263	58	10	2	6	29	76	4	7	2	218	303	336	640	118	281	26	10	290	81	-7	+1	-0	-2	+6	-0.2
2036	29	MLB CTX	NYY	53%	286	254	55	10	2	5	27	74	3	6	2	215	300	330	630	114	279	26	9	287	79	-7	+0	-1	-2	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2275	2009	438	77	16	42	219	579	29	53	16	218	304	335	639	117	283	25	10	290	79	-51	+4	-1	-14	+49	-1.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	574	126	22	5	12	63	165	8	15	5	220	305	338	643	118	285	25	10	290	79	-14	+1	-0	-4	+14	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	4983	4364	928	169	28	83	500	1276	74	137	42	213	304	321	625	109	278	26	10	285	79	-104	+9	-2	-27	+97	-2.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	569	122	22	4	11	65	166	10	18	5	214	306	325	631	111	280	26	10	285	79	-15	+1	-0	-4	+14	-0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Willie Harrislast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,743 PA	4.1	2,743	39	106	241	331	351	-11	-2	5.3	6.2
/162	664	9	26	-2.7	-0.5	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Jake Powell'30-'45 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,767 PA	4.2	2,767	22	65	248*	294*	373*	-14	-2	0.2	2.0
/162	664	5	16	-3.3	-0.5	0.0	pk7: 4
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
#6Eric Owens'95-'03 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,576 PA	3.9	2,576	26	126	253*	303*	334*	-18	+1	-0.9	0.4
/162	664	7	32	-4.5	+0.2	-0.2	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.7	2,468	42	57	217	300	329	-15	+0	0.0	0.3
/162	664	11	15	-4.0	+0.0	0.0	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
David Carrera (OGILVIE)	20	40	20	60	60	201/289/285	84	275	2	4	27%	10%	67	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Robert Gonzalez 2021 · A	20	40	39→40	54→60	52	186/296/275	89	275	5	8	30%	12%	68	-1.0	190/293/264	74	252	5	17	24%	10%	64	-1.3	151/292/187	36	182	3	30	16%	14%	48	-0.8
✕Jesus Hernandez 2024 · A	20	42	37→40	51→55	53	199/281/271	72	257	5	13	23%	10%	60	-1.6	199/278/287	88	284	6	18	29%	9%	63	-1.4	199/280/289	90	282	6	24	29%	9%	62	-0.7
✕Albertson Asigen 2023 · A	21	43	35→40	56→55	50	201/277/262	60	263	2	12	23%	9%	56	-1.9	215/296/295	80	325	5	20	32%	9%	71	-0.8	209/299/294	85	336	7	27	36%	9%	69	-0.3
✕Ryan Vega 2017 · A	20	44	40	54→45	41	212/260/305	93	270	8	9	24%	5%	59	-1.6	212/271/300	88	287	7	7	27%	6%	63	-1.4	190/257/269	79	268	7	6	30%	7%	50	-1.3
✕Adanson Cruz 2021 · A	20	45	37→40	52→50	45	211/283/292	81	298	4	9	28%	8%	65	-1.2	178/244/250	72	372	5	6	49%	7%	41	-3.0	148/219/207	58	306	4	6	49%	7%	21	-1.3
✕Jenner Emeterio 2013 · A	20	42	37→30	48→60	49	198/268/270	72	254	4	13	22%	8%	55	-2.0	197/293/251	54	252	2	24	20%	11%	61	-1.5	183/298/219	36	231	1	34	18%	13%	54	-0.8
✕Frank Frias 2014 · A	20	44	37→30	52→55	48	205/293/280	76	289	5	20	28%	9%	68	-1.0	219/288/306	87	317	6	13	30%	8%	70	-0.8	227/294/318	91	329	7	13	31%	8%	71	-0.2
✕Anthony Alford 2014 · A	20	44→52	40→45	55	45	209/282/305	97	298	6	12	30%	8%	68	-1.0	213/286/308	95	348	7	16	37%	9%	70	-0.8	220/302/313	92	336	7	21	33%	9%	75	-0.3
✕Glenn Santiago 2021 · A	20	41	36→40	54→45	48	191/268/264	73	243	2	13	21%	8%	54	-2.0	204/266/293	89	275	7	9	27%	7%	59	-1.6	185/249/263	77	271	7	8	32%	7%	44	-1.1
✕Cesar Gonzalez 2015 · A	20	42	36→40	54→60	43	195/260/262	67	275	2	19	28%	7%	49	-2.4	203/255/272	69	317	3	11	34%	6%	50	-2.3	184/229/215	32	332	0	4	42%	5%	23	-1.0
✕Gilberto Celestino 2019 · A	20	43→53	38→45	52→55	42	209/257/289	80	280	6	12	27%	6%	54	-2.0	226/281/328	102	291	8	8	24%	7%	72	-0.7	239/317/316	76	309	5	10	22%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Guillermo Pimentel 2010 · A	20	40	37→30	49→55	45	189/274/253	64	275	5	17	31%	8%	55	-2.0	200/259/279	79	339	6	8	40%	6%	53	-2.1	178/227/247	69	320	8	2	44%	5%	31	-1.0
✕Jorge Alcantara 2012 · A	20	44	40→45	52→50	42	209/274/307	98	306	7	12	32%	8%	65	-1.2	190/261/285	95	288	7	14	34%	8%	55	-1.9	143/221/238	95	216	5	25	34%	8%	30	-1.0
✕Ricardo Rosario 2023 · A	20	39	36→40	50→55	44	186/249/258	71	249	3	12	26%	7%	45	-2.7	204/271/288	84	283	7	19	28%	7%	60	-1.6	202/282/289	86	263	10	29	26%	8%	63	-0.7
✕Che-Hsuan Lin 2009 · A	20	44→54	41→40	58→55	45	214/276/316	101	271	7	21	23%	6%	68	-1.0	239/308/317	78	289	5	20	18%	8%	80	-0.2	245/318/310	65	292	4	22	16%	8%	79	-0.2
✕Jake Fox 2023 · A	20	46→44	39→40	55→50	52	216/312/311	95	298	6	15	27%	11%	81	-0.1	202/278/301	99	278	7	11	27%	9%	65	-1.2	203/291/297	94	273	5	13	25%	11%	68	-0.5
✕Pablo Olivares 2018 · A	20	44	36→40	49→50	43	207/279/278	72	283	3	10	26%	6%	61	-1.5	227/298/305	78	294	6	13	23%	6%	74	-0.5	220/297/294	73	283	5	14	22%	7%	68	-0.5
✕Tito Polo 2015 · A	20	43→53	39→45	54→60	42	206/268/296	90	278	5	17	27%	6%	61	-1.5	222/276/320	98	295	8	26	26%	5%	69	-0.9	235/290/350	114	311	11	32	27%	5%	78	-0.2
✕Candido Pimentel 2010 · A	20	45	35→30	53→55	54	207/295/272	65	273	2	17	23%	11%	65	-1.2	211/275/265	54	294	2	15	26%	8%	55	-1.9	234/284/275	41	327	1	17	27%	6%	57	-0.7
✕Druw Jones 2024 · A	20	45→55	39→40	51→55	45	208/281/293	85	320	7	13	35%	9%	65	-1.2	223/301/314	91	356	6	18	35%	10%	77	-0.3	226/303/314	88	356	5	23	35%	9%	76	-0.4

David Carrera

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps