Aaron Munson — OGILVIE

Aaron Munson P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 24 RHP 5'10" / 195 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 114

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%15.7%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%2.8%

ROS IP57

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	1	9	34	5	2	0	20%	1.8	14.7%	5.9%	8.8%	0.0%	1.00	2.60	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	1	9	34	5	2	0	20%	1.8	14.7%	5.9%	8.8%	0.0%	1.00	2.60	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	1	9	34	5	2	0	20%	1.8	14.7%	5.9%	8.8%	0.0%	1.00	2.66	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	53	238	68	32	2	0%	1.3	21.5%	15.6%	5.8%	1.1%	4.78	3.86	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	53	238	68	32	2	0%	1.3	21.5%	15.6%	5.8%	1.1%	4.78	3.86	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	53	238	68	32	2	0%	1.3	28.6%	13.4%	15.1%	0.8%	4.78	2.83	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	30	0	48	205	40	18	0	0%	1.6	15.0%	10.1%	4.9%	0.0%	2.81	3.11	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	30	0	48	205	40	18	0	0%	1.6	15.0%	10.1%	4.9%	0.0%	2.81	3.11	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	30	0	48	205	40	18	0	0%	1.6	19.5%	8.8%	10.7%	0.0%	2.81	2.56	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	42	0	68	307	73	28	7	0%	1.6	17.6%	9.0%	8.6%	3.3%	4.26	4.54	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	42	0	68	307	73	28	7	0%	1.6	17.6%	9.0%	8.6%	3.3%	4.26	4.54	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	TOR	5	0	10	49	17	7	0	0%	2.1	34.7%	14.3%	20.4%	0.0%	4.35	1.98	—
2026	24	AA RAW	TOR	37	0	57	258	56	21	7	0%	1.5	21.7%	8.1%	13.6%	2.7%	4.24	3.79	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TOR	64	0	67	283	49	34	7	0%	1.0	17.1%	12.0%	5.2%	2.5%	4.97	4.91	-0.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	TOR	64	0	67	283	51	33	7	0%	1.0	17.9%	11.7%	6.1%	2.5%	4.88	4.84	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	TOR	63	0	66	279	51	33	7	0%	1.0	18.1%	11.7%	6.4%	2.6%	4.85	4.85	-0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	TOR	61	0	64	271	49	32	7	0%	1.1	18.1%	11.8%	6.4%	2.7%	4.89	4.92	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	TOR	28	0	29	122	21	15	3	0%	1.0	17.1%	12.0%	5.2%	2.5%	4.97	4.91	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	TOR	43	0	45	190	34	22	5	0%	1.0	17.9%	11.7%	6.1%	2.5%	4.88	4.84	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	TOR	49	0	51	215	39	25	6	0%	1.0	18.1%	11.7%	6.4%	2.6%	4.85	4.85	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	TOR	51	0	54	228	41	27	6	0%	1.1	18.1%	11.8%	6.4%	2.7%	4.89	4.92	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		171	0	180	758	136	89	20	0%	1.1	17.9%	11.8%	6.1%	2.6%	4.89	4.50	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	151	99	22	0%	1.0	17.9%	11.8%	6.1%	2.6%	4.89	4.50	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		119	1	177	784	141	87	13	1%	1.5	18.0%	11.1%	6.8%	1.6%	3.86	3.88	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	1	200	884	159	99	14	1%	1.5	18.0%	11.1%	6.8%	1.6%	3.86	3.88	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Munson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.13	15.7%	13.0%	2.4%	—	4.87	17.7%	5.9%	200	-0.26	—	—	—
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	91
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	91
Parker Markel R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	13.6%	12.3%	2.1%	.313	3.18	15.9%	6.2%	61	-1.49	3.18	266	89
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	89
Darin Gillies R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	15.0%	10.8%	1.8%	.270	4.95	22.5%	12.9%	124	+0.73	4.22	295	89
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	88
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	88
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	88
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	88
Logan Clayton R 2023 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	16.7%	13.2%	1.7%	.364	4.97	13.4%	3.1%	157	+0.69	4.28	206	87
Matt Lollis R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	18.5%	12.2%	2.7%	.237	4.95	19.2%	4.7%	56	+0.39	4.56	120	87
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	87
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	87
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	87
Damien Magnifico R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	13.9%	11.0%	1.5%	.241	3.64	19.1%	4.9%	186	-0.50	2.96	293	86
Ryan Moseley R 2019 · 4.07 FIP	24	SU	4.07	16.9%	11.9%	1.6%	.282	5.26	14.1%	1.1%	48	+1.19	4.07	264	86
Matthew Gorst R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	24	SU	4.66	16.2%	11.3%	2.7%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	199	86
Ryan Ledbetter R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	24	SU	4.76	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	124	86
Josh Uhen R 2016 · 4.09 FIP	24	SU	4.09	16.1%	9.7%	2.0%	.303	4.02	15.6%	1.2%	82	-0.07	3.17	185	86
Mitchell Osnowitz R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	13.2%	13.8%	1.5%	.330	5.30	16.5%	-2.2%	23	+0.76	4.54	132	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	64	17.4%	12.0%	0.99	4.94
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58