Christian Herberholz

P Norfolk Tides

Age 26 RHP 5'11" / 195 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	24	MIX3 levels	31	0	48	3.21	2.89	23.6%	7.5%	—	K 18.4% · BB 8.4% · FIP 3.72
2026	25	MIX2 levels	31	15	89	4.97	5.11	19.4%	8.2%	—	K 16.3% · BB 7.9% · FIP 5.60
2027PROJ	26	MLBBAL	48	0	50	5.16	5.16	17.1%	8.1%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	27	MLBBAL	31	0	33	5.10	5.11	17.7%	8.3%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	28	MLBBAL	46	0	48	5.10	5.14	18.0%	8.5%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsJorge Reyes (age 27) · Tyler Yates (age 26) · Donovan Hand (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.16

FIP5.16

K%17.1%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%9.0%

Proj IP50

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	0	48	199	47	15	3	0%	1.5	18.4%	8.4%	10.0%	2.0%	3.21	3.72	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	0	48	199	47	15	3	0%	1.5	18.4%	8.4%	10.0%	2.0%	3.21	3.72	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	0	48	199	47	15	3	0%	1.5	23.6%	7.5%	16.1%	1.5%	3.21	2.89	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	15	89	391	76	32	18	48%	2.9	16.3%	7.9%	8.4%	5.2%	4.97	5.60	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	15	89	391	76	32	18	48%	2.9	16.3%	7.9%	8.4%	5.2%	4.97	5.60	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	15	89	391	76	32	18	48%	2.9	19.4%	8.2%	11.3%	4.6%	4.97	5.11	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	BAL	48	0	50	211	36	17	8	0%	1.0	17.1%	8.1%	9.0%	3.8%	5.16	5.16	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	BAL	75	0	79	332	59	27	13	0%	1.0	17.7%	8.3%	9.4%	3.8%	5.10	5.11	-0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	BAL	73	0	76	322	58	27	12	0%	1.0	18.0%	8.5%	9.5%	3.8%	5.10	5.14	-0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	BAL	69	0	73	307	55	27	12	0%	1.1	18.0%	8.7%	9.3%	3.9%	5.16	5.23	-0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	BAL	65	0	68	289	51	26	12	0%	1.1	17.8%	9.0%	8.8%	4.1%	5.28	5.38	-0.6
2028	27	MLB CTX	BAL	31	0	33	139	25	12	5	0%	1.1	17.7%	8.3%	9.4%	3.8%	5.10	5.11	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	BAL	46	0	48	203	36	17	8	0%	1.0	18.0%	8.5%	9.5%	3.8%	5.10	5.14	-0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	BAL	50	0	53	224	40	20	9	0%	1.1	18.0%	8.7%	9.3%	3.9%	5.16	5.23	-0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	BAL	52	0	55	232	41	21	10	0%	1.1	17.8%	9.0%	8.8%	4.1%	5.28	5.38	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		180	0	189	797	143	69	31	0%	1.0	17.9%	8.7%	9.2%	3.9%	5.17	4.85	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	152	73	33	0%	1.1	17.9%	8.7%	9.2%	3.9%	5.17	4.85	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		62	15	136	590	100	47	25	24%	2.2	17.0%	8.0%	9.0%	4.2%	4.36	4.97	-2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		91	22	200	866	147	70	36	24%	2.2	17.0%	8.0%	9.0%	4.2%	4.36	4.97	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Herberholz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.16	17.1%	8.1%	3.8%	—	5.16	17.9%	9.4%	228	-0.00	—	—	—
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	87
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	86
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	84
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	83
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	82
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	82
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	81
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	80
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	80
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	80
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	79
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	79
Bernie Martinez R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	26	SW	4.96	14.8%	6.7%	4.1%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	1.01	126	79
Brandon Backe R 2004 · 4.41 FIP	26	SW	4.41	18.4%	7.8%	3.4%	.316	4.77	13.2%	3.4%	221	+0.36	4.41	525	79
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	78
Ranfi Casimiro R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	26	SW	4.62	16.4%	10.7%	2.8%	.285	4.93	8.4%	-0.2%	16	+0.31	3.81	420	78
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	78
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	78
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	77
Brooks Hall R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	26	SW	4.30	14.2%	6.7%	2.8%	.284	3.45	13.6%	6.2%	55	-0.85	3.45	274	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	69	17.8%	8.5%	1.51	5.16
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Ricky Stone ('07)	1.3	64	15.2%	8.0%	1.55	4.68
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*