Johnny TincherC
Lake County Captains
Age 24
R/R
5'6" / 177 lbs
A+
K +5%HR +5%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.9 · 2029
wRC+†66
AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .285 / .303
PA168
HR2
K%27
BB%9
MLB%0%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
35→35
PWR
25→25
SPD
45→45
EYE
54↘50
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2030
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.3 | $1M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$5M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $9M | $11M | +$2M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 216 | 185 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 69 | 5 | 0 | 1 | .141 | .257 | .195 | .452 | .054 | .207 | 32 | 11 | .213 | 21 | -19 | -0 | +0 | +4 | +6 | -1.0 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 234 | 206 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 59 | 5 | 3 | 1 | .160 | .248 | .209 | .457 | .049 | .213 | 25 | 8 | .211 | 20 | -21 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +7 | -1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 168 | 150 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 45 | 2 | 3 | 1 | .207 | .283 | .300 | .583 | .093 | .277 | 27 | 8 | .271 | 66 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB 10% | CLE | 220 | 196 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 58 | 3 | 3 | 1 | .214 | .294 | .327 | .620 | .112 | .280 | 26 | 9 | .281 | 73 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB 25% | CLE | 301 | 267 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 79 | 4 | 5 | 1 | .217 | .299 | .333 | .632 | .116 | .282 | 26 | 9 | .287 | 78 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +9 | 0.7 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB 43% | CLE | 344 | 305 | 66 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 89 | 5 | 5 | 1 | .216 | .299 | .334 | .634 | .118 | .282 | 26 | 9 | .289 | 79 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +10 | 0.9 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB 52% | CLE | 371 | 329 | 72 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 34 | 97 | 5 | 6 | 1 | .219 | .302 | .337 | .639 | .119 | .282 | 26 | 9 | .289 | 79 | -9 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +11 | 0.9 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB 63% | CLE | 381 | 338 | 72 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 35 | 101 | 5 | 5 | 1 | .213 | .296 | .322 | .619 | .109 | .281 | 27 | 9 | .286 | 77 | -10 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +11 | 0.7 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB 81% | CLE | 386 | 343 | 72 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 35 | 103 | 5 | 5 | 1 | .210 | .292 | .318 | .610 | .108 | .280 | 27 | 9 | .283 | 75 | -11 | +1 | -2 | +7 | +11 | 0.6 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB 87% | CLE | 367 | 325 | 68 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 34 | 100 | 5 | 4 | 1 | .209 | .294 | .320 | .614 | .111 | .278 | 27 | 9 | .279 | 72 | -12 | +0 | -3 | +7 | +10 | 0.3 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 342 | 304 | 63 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 95 | 4 | 4 | 0 | .207 | .289 | .312 | .602 | .105 | .277 | 28 | 9 | .275 | 69 | -12 | +1 | -4 | +6 | +10 | 0.1 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 307 | 272 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 87 | 4 | 3 | 0 | .206 | .289 | .309 | .598 | .103 | .275 | 28 | 9 | .270 | 64 | -12 | +1 | -4 | +5 | +9 | -0.2 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 259 | 231 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 76 | 3 | 3 | 0 | .199 | .280 | .299 | .579 | .100 | .273 | 29 | 9 | .263 | 60 | -12 | +1 | -5 | +5 | +7 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3896 | 3451 | 705 | 136 | 12 | 65 | 354 | 1058 | 55 | 49 | 10 | .204 | .289 | .307 | .596 | .103 | .272 | 27 | 9 | .272 | 67 | -147 | +6 | -20 | +70 | +110 | 2.0 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 576 | 118 | 23 | 2 | 11 | 59 | 177 | 9 | 8 | 2 | .205 | .289 | .309 | .598 | .104 | .273 | 27 | 9 | .272 | 67 | -24 | +1 | -3 | +12 | +18 | 0.3 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 216 | 176 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 33 | 56 | 5 | 0 | 1 | .176 | .322 | .256 | .578 | .080 | .235 | 26 | 15 | .279 | 71 | -7 | -0 | — | — | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 234 | 198 | 40 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 47 | 5 | 3 | 1 | .202 | .313 | .268 | .581 | .066 | .253 | 20 | 12 | .272 | 66 | -9 | +0 | — | — | +7 | -0.2 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Johnny Tincher (OGILVIE) | 24 | 35 | 25 | 45 | 50 | .206/.285/.303 | .097 | .277 | 2 | 3 | 27% | 9% | 66 | -0.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Taylor Krick 2011 · A |
23 | 43 | 39→30 | 48→40 | 49 | .206/.285/.289 | .084 | .266 | 7 | 7 | 24% | 9% | 62 | -0.9 | .224/.308/.287 | .063 | .307 | 4 | 5 | 26% | 8% | 71 | -0.3 | .233/.323/.283 | .051 | .326 | 2 | 2 | 26% | 8% | 73 | -0.0 |
|
✕Ronnie Richardson 2014 · A |
24 | 44 | 42→40 | 48→50 | 45 | .213/.275/.318 | .106 | .281 | 8 | 8 | 26% | 7% | 64 | -0.8 | .216/.308/.313 | .097 | .284 | 6 | 10 | 24% | 9% | 78 | +0.2 | .210/.315/.303 | .093 | .277 | 5 | 10 | 23% | 10% | 77 | +0.1 |
|
✕Chris Denove 2006 · A |
23 | 44 | 40 | 47→40 | 46 | .212/.286/.304 | .092 | .282 | 7 | 6 | 26% | 8% | 66 | -0.6 | .200/.260/.271 | .071 | .268 | 4 | 4 | 25% | 7% | 46 | -2.0 | .245/.301/.340 | .096 | .298 | 7 | 3 | 19% | 6% | 79 | +0.1 |
|
✕Chadd Krist 2014 · A |
24 | 43 | 42→40 | 43→45 | 47 | .211/.283/.319 | .108 | .273 | 9 | 6 | 25% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .191/.249/.289 | .098 | .272 | 9 | 6 | 31% | 6% | 46 | -2.0 | .157/.206/.245 | .089 | .229 | 10 | 3 | 35% | 5% | 12 | -1.5 |
|
✕Franklin Torres 2021 · A |
24 | 45→41 | 39→40 | 49→50 | 46 | .213/.283/.297 | .084 | .301 | 7 | 6 | 30% | 8% | 62 | -0.9 | .209/.261/.301 | .092 | .314 | 7 | 5 | 33% | 6% | 53 | -1.5 | .196/.240/.281 | .086 | .294 | 6 | 0 | 34% | 5% | 35 | -1.1 |
|
✕Aaron McKeithan 2023 · A |
23 | 45 | 40 | 45→40 | 44 | .215/.290/.307 | .093 | .291 | 8 | 4 | 28% | 7% | 69 | -0.4 | .217/.295/.297 | .080 | .272 | 8 | 4 | 22% | 7% | 69 | -0.4 | .202/.287/.263 | .061 | .244 | 8 | 1 | 19% | 7% | 57 | -0.4 |
|
✕Vito Friscia 2021 · A |
24 | 43 | 40→45 | 49→40 | 42 | .208/.266/.303 | .094 | .290 | 7 | 5 | 30% | 7% | 56 | -1.3 | .211/.293/.327 | .116 | .322 | 12 | 4 | 35% | 10% | 75 | -0.0 | .200/.291/.320 | .120 | .304 | 13 | 2 | 35% | 10% | 71 | -0.2 |
|
✕Connor McVey 2019 · A |
24 | 45 | 40→30 | 46→50 | 45 | .214/.287/.304 | .090 | .311 | 7 | 9 | 32% | 8% | 66 | -0.6 | .205/.305/.281 | .076 | .291 | 6 | 9 | 29% | 10% | 69 | -0.4 | .188/.306/.248 | .060 | .265 | 6 | 9 | 28% | 12% | 59 | -0.7 |
|
✕Xorge Carrillo 2013 · A |
24 | 42 | 43→40 | 50→30 | 41 | .211/.258/.321 | .110 | .276 | 11 | 8 | 28% | 6% | 57 | -1.2 | .240/.292/.325 | .085 | .299 | 7 | 4 | 21% | 5% | 72 | -0.2 | .242/.299/.328 | .086 | .289 | 8 | 1 | 18% | 5% | 74 | -0.0 |
|
✕Stephen McGee 2015 · A |
24 | 42 | 37→40 | 45→30 | 49 | .199/.285/.266 | .067 | .268 | 5 | 4 | 26% | 9% | 56 | -1.3 | .202/.282/.286 | .084 | .287 | 7 | 4 | 29% | 9% | 59 | -1.1 | .193/.281/.289 | .096 | .278 | 9 | 1 | 31% | 10% | 58 | -0.4 |
|
✕Adam Weisenburger 2013 · AA |
24 | 43 | 37→40 | 44→30 | 46 | .202/.276/.270 | .069 | .270 | 4 | 5 | 25% | 8% | 53 | -1.5 | .214/.291/.304 | .090 | .282 | 7 | 4 | 25% | 8% | 68 | -0.5 | .212/.296/.301 | .089 | .272 | 7 | 2 | 23% | 8% | 68 | -0.2 |
|
✕Jose Herrera 2021 · A |
24 | 43 | 40 | 47→40 | 51 | .209/.287/.304 | .095 | .275 | 8 | 5 | 25% | 10% | 66 | -0.6 | .215/.289/.310 | .095 | .290 | 9 | 5 | 27% | 9% | 68 | -0.5 | .210/.286/.290 | .080 | .278 | 8 | 3 | 26% | 9% | 58 | -0.5 |
|
✕Greg Cullen 2021 · A |
24 | 44→42 | 41→40 | 42→40 | 48 | .215/.292/.315 | .100 | .268 | 8 | 3 | 22% | 8% | 72 | -0.2 | .229/.319/.338 | .109 | .306 | 11 | 4 | 26% | 10% | 89 | +0.9 | .232/.336/.332 | .100 | .317 | 11 | 4 | 27% | 12% | 91 | +0.4 |
|
✕Bryan Holaday 2012 · AA |
24 | 42 | 41→45 | 48→40 | 41 | .206/.264/.302 | .095 | .280 | 9 | 7 | 29% | 6% | 55 | -1.4 | .216/.266/.302 | .086 | .273 | 7 | 5 | 22% | 5% | 56 | -1.3 | .217/.286/.341 | .124 | .252 | 13 | 2 | 19% | 7% | 71 | -0.1 |
|
✕Eric Yang 2022 · A |
24 | 40 | 39→40 | 45→40 | 46 | .188/.284/.275 | .087 | .276 | 6 | 6 | 31% | 9% | 59 | -1.1 | .190/.268/.271 | .081 | .289 | 6 | 6 | 33% | 8% | 50 | -1.8 | .174/.249/.240 | .066 | .269 | 5 | 3 | 34% | 8% | 30 | -0.8 |
|
✕Onix Vega 2023 · AAA |
24 | 45 | 39→30 | 48→45 | 45 | .215/.286/.299 | .083 | .286 | 6 | 7 | 26% | 7% | 64 | -0.8 | .203/.277/.273 | .070 | .266 | 5 | 6 | 24% | 8% | 53 | -1.5 | .186/.269/.228 | .042 | .240 | 3 | 5 | 22% | 9% | 38 | -0.9 |
|
✕Gerardo Bustamante 2010 · A |
24 | 42 | 40 | 47→50 | 44 | .204/.259/.295 | .091 | .269 | 8 | 6 | 27% | 7% | 51 | -1.7 | .206/.265/.296 | .090 | .272 | 8 | 10 | 26% | 6% | 54 | -1.4 | .219/.256/.308 | .088 | .269 | 11 | 12 | 23% | 4% | 49 | -0.6 |
|
✕Jackson Brennan 2007 · A |
24 | 47→42 | 42→45 | 46→50 | 48 | .223/.311/.332 | .110 | .296 | 9 | 10 | 26% | 9% | 84 | +0.6 | .210/.302/.309 | .099 | .287 | 8 | 10 | 28% | 9% | 75 | -0.0 | .195/.295/.281 | .087 | .270 | 7 | 10 | 28% | 9% | 63 | -0.4 |
|
✕Quincy McAfee 2022 · AA |
24 | 43 | 43→45 | 48→45 | 49 | .208/.299/.326 | .118 | .272 | 10 | 10 | 26% | 9% | 78 | +0.2 | .194/.278/.319 | .125 | .257 | 14 | 8 | 29% | 8% | 67 | -0.5 | .179/.262/.309 | .130 | .227 | 16 | 8 | 28% | 7% | 55 | -0.8 |
|
✕Luis Perez 2014 · A |
23 | 45 | 43→30 | 50 | 40 | .222/.267/.338 | .116 | .279 | 10 | 9 | 24% | 5% | 66 | -0.6 | .219/.258/.331 | .112 | .307 | 10 | 6 | 30% | 5% | 59 | -1.1 | .217/.244/.347 | .129 | .299 | 11 | 2 | 31% | 3% | 54 | -0.4 |