Johnny Tincher — OGILVIE

Johnny TincherC Chesapeake Baysox

Age 24 R/R 5'6" / 177 lbs AA HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 11 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.100 / .182 / .100

PA11

HR0

K%27

BB%9

BABIP267

ISO71

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	22	A+	Lake County Captains	—	216	176	31	5	0	3	33	56	5	0	1	176	322	256	578	80	235	26	15	279	75	-7	-0	—	—	+5	-0.2
2025	23	A+	Lake County Captains	—	234	198	40	10	0	1	27	47	5	3	1	202	313	268	581	66	253	20	12	272	70	-8	+0	—	—	+5	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	216	185	25	4	0	2	24	74	5	0	1	135	252	189	442	54	200	34	11	209	28	-19	-0	—	—	+5	-1.5
2025	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	234	206	32	7	0	1	19	62	5	3	1	155	243	204	447	49	203	26	8	206	26	-21	+0	—	—	+5	-1.6
2024	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	216	185	25	4	0	2	24	74	5	0	1	135	252	189	442	54	207	34	11	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	—	216	176	31	5	0	3	33	56	5	0	1	176	322	256	578	80	235	26	15	279	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	234	206	32	7	0	1	19	62	5	3	1	155	243	204	447	49	211	26	8	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	—	234	198	40	10	0	1	27	47	5	3	1	202	313	268	581	66	253	20	12	272	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	216	185	25	4	0	2	24	74	5	0	1	135	252	189	442	54	200	34	11	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	234	208	32	7	0	1	19	62	5	3	1	154	243	202	445	48	203	26	8	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	216	185	25	4	0	2	24	74	5	0	1	135	252	189	442	54	200	34	11	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	234	208	32	7	0	1	19	62	5	3	1	154	243	202	445	48	203	26	8	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	BAL	—	58	53	11	2	0	1	1	15	2	0	0	208	250	302	552	94	263	26	2	221	36	-4	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A RAW	BAL	—	15	14	5	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	357	400	643	1.043	286	333	7	0	454	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	24	AA RAW	BAL	—	43	38	6	1	0	0	2	11	1	0	0	158	220	184	404	26	214	26	5	185	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	24	AA MLE	BAL	2%	11	10	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	100	182	100	282		263	27	9	252	57	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	24	AA MLE	BAL	—	69	63	12	2	0	1	2	18	2	0	0	190	239	270	509	79	244	26	3	226	39	-5	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	BAL	31%	291	260	52	10	1	3	24	73	5	4	1	200	280	281	561	81	264	25	8	263	64	-12	+0	+0	+5	+6	-0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	BAL	45%	352	314	65	13	1	5	29	88	6	5	2	207	287	303	589	96	267	25	8	270	69	-13	+0	+0	+6	+8	0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	BAL	49%	378	337	70	14	1	6	32	94	6	6	2	208	288	309	597	101	268	25	8	273	71	-13	+0	+0	+7	+8	0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	BAL	52%	393	351	72	14	1	6	33	98	6	6	2	205	285	302	587	97	268	25	8	273	71	-14	+0	-1	+7	+9	0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	BAL	52%	395	352	72	14	1	6	34	99	6	6	2	205	286	301	587	97	267	25	9	271	70	-14	+0	-1	+7	+9	0.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	BAL	52%	395	352	72	14	1	6	34	100	6	6	2	205	286	301	587	97	266	25	9	268	68	-15	+0	-2	+7	+9	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	BAL	31%	90	82	16	3	0	1	7	23	1	1	0	195	267	268	535	73	268	26	8	255	64	-4	+0	+0	+2	+2	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	BAL	45%	157	141	30	6	1	2	13	39	2	2	1	213	288	312	601	99	271	25	8	262	69	-6	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	BAL	49%	186	165	35	7	1	3	16	46	3	3	1	212	293	321	615	109	272	25	9	265	71	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	BAL	52%	203	181	39	8	1	3	17	51	3	3	1	215	294	320	614	105	272	25	8	266	71	-7	+0	-0	+4	+4	0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	BAL	52%	204	182	39	8	1	3	17	51	3	3	1	214	292	319	611	104	271	25	8	264	70	-7	+0	-1	+4	+4	0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	BAL	52%	203	181	37	7	1	3	17	52	3	3	1	204	284	304	587	99	270	26	8	261	68	-8	+0	-1	+4	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1043	932	196	39	5	15	87	262	15	15	5	210	288	311	599	101	274	25	8	263	62	-38	+1	-2	+19	+23	0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	121	24	3	9	54	163	9	9	3	208	285	306	592	98	272	25	8	263	62	-24	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	2665	2367	461	90	6	35	230	691	45	36	13	195	279	282	561	87	257	26	9	259	62	-82	+2	-4	+40	+48	0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	112	22	1	9	56	169	11	9	3	194	278	282	560	88	256	26	9	259	62	-24	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	4.3	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
/162	664	4	15	+6.9	+19.7	2.4	pk7: 11
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.6	1,047	15	16	207	284	306	+19	+12	1.0	1.0
/162	664	10	10	+11.9	+7.6	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Johnny Tincher (OGILVIE)	24	35	25	45	50	195/273/267	73	263	2	3	26%	8%	57	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Stephen McGee 2015 · A	24	41	36→40	44→30	48	195/279/260	65	269	4	4	27%	9%	57	-1.8	202/281/288	86	287	7	4	29%	9%	64	-1.3	198/284/292	94	281	8	1	30%	10%	64	-0.5
✕Bryan Johns 2013 · A	24	44	35→30	43→45	49	203/282/267	64	282	2	7	26%	9%	59	-1.6	201/270/283	82	287	6	8	30%	7%	59	-1.7	152/218/211	59	220	7	5	32%	5%	22	-1.1
✕Adam Weisenburger 2013 · AA	24	43	36→40	43→30	46	202/277/267	66	268	4	5	25%	8%	58	-1.7	217/296/304	87	281	6	4	23%	8%	74	-0.6	216/301/298	83	274	6	2	21%	8%	72	-0.3
✕Coty Blanchard 2015 · A	23	41	36→40	48→45	47	192/261/260	67	258	2	6	25%	8%	50	-2.3	227/277/301	74	309	3	7	26%	6%	64	-1.3	246/290/315	69	329	2	7	24%	5%	70	-0.4
✕Chris Clare 2019 · A	24	43→45	37→40	46→40	48	202/278/274	72	262	5	5	24%	8%	60	-1.6	197/269/270	73	270	4	7	26%	7%	55	-1.9	153/231/183	30	223	0	3	28%	7%	19	-1.4
✕Connor Justus 2019 · AA	24	39→38	38→40	42→45	46	188/272/267	79	265	6	8	29%	8%	57	-1.8	177/251/244	67	256	4	8	30%	7%	43	-2.8	152/224/201	49	226	2	6	31%	7%	21	-2.7
✕Yoel Romero 2021 · A	23	43	38→40	46→50	45	206/268/286	80	275	6	9	26%	7%	58	-1.7	216/267/308	92	323	7	4	33%	6%	62	-1.4	212/260/299	87	317	7	0	34%	5%	55	-0.8
✕Will Piwnica-Worms 2014 · A	24	44	38→40	49→50	50	210/290/289	79	270	5	9	23%	9%	68	-1.0	210/277/303	93	289	8	8	28%	7%	65	-1.2	184/246/269	85	256	9	5	30%	6%	47	-1.0
✕Kawika Emsley-Pai 2013 · A	24	43	36→30	46→40	55	198/298/270	72	275	3	7	26%	12%	67	-1.1	197/293/273	76	284	5	7	29%	11%	65	-1.2	163/278/221	58	239	5	4	30%	13%	48	-0.7
✕Brian Ward 2011 · A	25	41	36→40	43→45	47	193/272/257	64	268	4	6	28%	8%	54	-2.0	218/284/303	85	271	6	8	20%	7%	68	-1.0	224/288/309	84	270	6	8	18%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Ricardo Valenzuela 2015 · A	24	43	37→30	45→50	43	204/256/274	69	260	4	4	22%	6%	51	-2.3	204/258/266	62	255	4	3	20%	6%	49	-2.4	224/272/272	48	261	5	0	16%	6%	54	-0.7
✕Claudio Finol 2023 · AA	23	38	37→40	50→45	40	186/240/263	77	257	4	8	28%	6%	42	-2.9	207/267/299	92	292	8	10	30%	7%	61	-1.5	192/260/271	78	271	9	12	31%	7%	51	-0.6
✕Micael Ramirez 2023 · A	24	44	37→30	45→40	50	210/279/277	68	265	4	5	22%	8%	60	-1.6	211/272/284	73	266	6	5	22%	7%	59	-1.7	206/266/266	60	253	6	2	20%	7%	51	-0.8
✕Shawn Roof 2008 · A	23	44	35→30	45→50	43	204/266/259	55	283	2	9	27%	6%	51	-2.2	226/286/279	53	297	2	10	23%	6%	63	-1.4	245/294/293	48	320	1	17	22%	5%	65	-0.5
✕Todd Davison 2008 · A	24	43	39→40	47→50	46	208/271/296	89	269	5	11	24%	7%	61	-1.5	222/282/296	74	300	5	10	26%	7%	65	-1.2	229/291/272	42	313	2	9	25%	7%	61	-0.7
✕Jose Toussen 2014 · A	24	43	35→30	44→50	44	201/250/258	57	261	2	9	23%	6%	44	-2.8	208/257/276	68	282	3	12	26%	6%	51	-2.2	198/236/237	39	271	0	19	26%	5%	32	-1.1
✕Jairo Rodriguez 2013 · A	24	45	37→30	46→30	42	216/262/286	70	276	5	4	23%	5%	55	-1.9	210/253/268	58	258	3	4	19%	5%	47	-2.5	196/234/232	36	232	0	1	15%	3%	31	-1.0
✕Jeremy Dowdy 2014 · A	24	43	37→40	45→30	40	205/249/276	71	284	4	5	28%	6%	48	-2.5	223/277/300	77	281	5	4	21%	7%	64	-1.3	225/284/301	76	272	5	1	18%	7%	63	-0.5
✕Dan Rizzie 2018 · A	24	44	35→30	47→40	43	209/261/264	55	282	2	4	26%	6%	50	-2.3	210/260/275	65	283	4	4	26%	6%	52	-2.2	202/252/252	50	269	3	1	25%	6%	43	-0.9
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	39→40	49→50	44	177/255/257	79	269	8	14	35%	9%	48	-2.5	207/287/299	92	295	7	12	29%	9%	69	-0.9	212/301/305	93	294	5	13	27%	10%	75	-0.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps