Johnny Tincher — OGILVIE

Johnny TincherC Chesapeake Baysox

Age 24 R/R 5'6" / 177 lbs AA HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 165 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†49

AVG/OBP/SLG.196 / .274 / .270

PA165

HR1

K%26

BB%8

BABIP267

ISO74

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	22	A+	Lake County Captains	—	216	185	25	4	0	2	24	72	5	0	1	135	252	189	442	54	204	33	11	209	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	Lake County Captains	—	216	176	31	5	0	3	33	56	5	0	1	176	322	256	578	80	235	26	15	279	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	Lake County Captains	—	234	206	30	6	0	1	19	61	5	3	1	146	235	189	424	44	196	26	8	201	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	Lake County Captains	—	234	198	40	10	0	1	27	47	5	3	1	202	313	268	581	66	253	20	12	272	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	AA	BAL	—	58	53	10	2	0	1	1	16	2	0	0	189	232	283	515	94	243	28	2	219	26	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
YTD	24	AA	BAL	—	58	52	11	2	0	1	2	12	2	0	0	212	268	308	576	96	250	21	3	254	53	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
ROS	24	AA	BAL	2%	165	148	29	6	1	1	13	43	3	2	1	196	274	270	545	74	261	26	8	250	49	-9	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.2
ROS	24	MLB	BAL	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						265	33	0	240	42	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	24	AA	BAL	—	61	56	10	2	0	1	1	17	2	0	0	179	220	268	488	89	231	28	2	220	27	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
TOT	24	AA	BAL	—	223	201	39	8	1	2	14	59	5	2	1	194	264	274	537	80	261	26	6	242	43	-14	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	BAL	31%	291	260	52	10	1	3	24	74	5	4	1	200	280	281	561	81	265	25	8	262	59	-14	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.0
2028	26	MLB	BAL	45%	352	314	65	13	1	5	29	88	6	5	2	207	287	303	589	96	267	25	8	270	64	-14	+0	+0	+6	+10	0.2
2029	27	MLB	BAL	49%	378	337	70	14	1	6	32	95	6	6	2	208	288	309	597	101	268	25	8	272	67	-14	+0	+0	+7	+11	0.4
2030	28	MLB	BAL	52%	393	351	72	14	1	6	33	99	6	6	2	205	285	302	587	97	268	25	8	273	67	-15	+0	-1	+7	+11	0.3
2031	29	MLB	BAL	52%	395	352	72	14	1	6	34	100	6	6	2	205	286	301	587	97	267	25	9	271	65	-15	+0	-1	+7	+11	0.2
2027	25	MLB	BAL	31%	90	82	16	3	0	1	7	23	1	1	0	195	267	268	535	73	269	26	8	254	52	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2028	26	MLB	BAL	45%	157	141	30	6	1	2	13	39	2	2	1	213	288	312	601	99	271	25	8	262	58	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.0
2029	27	MLB	BAL	49%	186	165	35	7	1	3	16	47	3	3	1	212	293	321	615	109	272	25	9	265	61	-8	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.1
2030	28	MLB	BAL	52%	203	181	39	8	1	3	17	51	3	3	1	215	294	320	614	105	272	25	8	265	61	-9	+0	-0	+4	+6	0.0
2031	29	MLB	BAL	52%	204	182	39	8	1	3	17	52	3	3	1	214	292	319	611	104	271	25	8	263	60	-9	+0	-1	+4	+6	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	843	754	159	32	4	12	70	213	12	12	4	211	288	312	600	101	276	25	8	263	59	-39	+1	-1	+15	+24	-0.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	123	25	3	9	54	164	9	9	3	212	288	312	600	100	277	25	8	263	59	-30	+1	-1	+12	+18	-0.0
Career	—			—	2424	2153	415	81	6	30	208	632	42	32	12	193	277	278	554	85	255	26	9	256	54	-125	+2	-2	+43	+69	-1.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	112	22	2	8	56	169	11	9	3	194	278	281	558	87	257	26	9	256	54	-33	+1	-1	+12	+18	-0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	22	A+	Lake County Captains	—	216	176	31	5	0	3	33	56	5	0	1	176	322	256	578	80	235	26	15	279	71	-7	-0	—	—	+6	-0.1
2025	23	A+	Lake County Captains	—	234	198	40	10	0	1	27	47	5	3	1	202	313	268	581	66	253	20	12	272	66	-9	+0	—	—	+7	-0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#4J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	844	12	13	207	284	305	+15	+8	0.7	0.7
	/162	664	10	10	207	284	305	+11.9	+6.3	0.5	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Johnny Tincher (OGILVIE)	24	35	25	45	50	194/264/274	80	261	2	2	26%	6%	43	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Clare 2019 · A	24	42→45	37→30	46→40	49	198/278/268	70	258	4	5	24%	8%	53	-1.5	194/266/265	71	270	4	7	28%	7%	47	-1.9	146/222/176	30	221	0	3	31%	6%	3	-1.5
✕Adam Weisenburger 2013 · AA	24	42	36→40	43→30	45	197/271/262	65	269	3	5	26%	7%	49	-1.8	214/294/304	90	284	7	4	25%	8%	69	-0.4	213/299/301	87	276	6	2	23%	8%	69	-0.2
✕Stephen McGee 2015 · A	24	42	37→40	44→30	48	197/281/263	66	269	4	4	27%	9%	53	-1.5	202/281/291	89	289	7	4	30%	9%	61	-1.0	196/283/297	101	281	10	1	31%	10%	60	-0.4
✕Bryan Johns 2013 · A	24	44	35→30	43→45	48	205/281/267	62	284	2	7	27%	9%	54	-1.4	202/269/283	81	288	6	8	30%	7%	53	-1.5	150/216/208	58	216	7	5	32%	5%	10	-1.1
✕Kawika Emsley-Pai 2013 · A	24	43	36→30	46→40	53	198/292/268	70	276	3	7	27%	11%	59	-1.1	195/288/272	77	280	6	7	29%	11%	59	-1.1	161/272/222	60	234	6	4	30%	12%	39	-0.7
✕Brian Ward 2011 · A	25	40	36→40	43→45	48	192/273/255	63	265	4	6	27%	9%	48	-1.9	220/287/306	86	274	6	8	20%	8%	66	-0.6	227/292/315	88	275	6	8	19%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Jeremy Dowdy 2014 · A	24	43	37→40	45→30	41	206/252/277	72	284	4	5	28%	6%	43	-2.2	226/279/305	79	285	5	4	21%	7%	62	-0.9	229/288/312	82	278	6	1	19%	7%	63	-0.3
✕Coty Blanchard 2015 · A	23	41	36→40	48→45	47	192/261/260	67	258	2	6	25%	8%	43	-2.2	223/272/296	73	306	3	7	26%	6%	56	-1.3	239/281/303	65	323	1	7	25%	5%	59	-0.5
✕Will Piwnica-Worms 2014 · A	24	43	38→40	50	50	205/285/287	82	263	6	9	23%	9%	61	-1.0	207/276/302	95	284	8	8	28%	8%	60	-1.0	181/247/265	84	252	9	5	30%	7%	39	-0.9
✕Connor Justus 2019 · AA	24	40→37	38→40	42→45	45	190/273/269	79	271	6	8	30%	8%	52	-1.6	172/246/239	67	256	5	8	32%	7%	33	-2.9	143/216/191	47	222	3	6	34%	7%	5	-2.9
✕Yoel Romero 2021 · A	23	43	38→40	46→50	45	205/266/285	80	275	6	9	27%	7%	52	-1.6	212/262/306	94	320	8	4	34%	6%	55	-1.4	201/249/291	90	304	8	0	35%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Micael Ramirez 2023 · A	24	45	36→30	45→40	50	211/281/277	66	266	4	5	21%	8%	56	-1.3	211/273/287	76	268	7	5	22%	7%	55	-1.4	206/268/271	65	257	7	2	21%	7%	46	-0.7
✕Todd Davison 2008 · A	24	43	39→40	47→50	46	208/271/296	89	269	5	11	24%	7%	56	-1.3	222/282/296	74	300	5	10	26%	7%	61	-1.0	229/291/272	42	313	2	9	25%	7%	56	-0.6
✕Jairo Rodriguez 2012 · A	23	39	35→30	46→30	41	187/226/248	61	230	3	5	20%	4%	24	-3.5	214/259/272	58	268	3	3	20%	5%	44	-2.1	216/259/262	46	264	2	1	18%	4%	39	-0.8
✕Claudio Finol 2023 · AA	23	38	37→40	50→45	40	187/240/263	77	259	4	8	29%	5%	35	-2.8	204/263/296	92	292	8	10	31%	7%	53	-1.5	181/246/258	77	260	9	12	32%	7%	35	-0.7
✕Jason Delay 2019 · A	24	43	36→45	49→40	44	205/276/267	62	277	4	5	26%	7%	52	-1.6	203/253/330	127	289	15	5	34%	5%	58	-1.2	225/284/302	76	298	3	2	23%	6%	61	-0.4
✕John Ziznewski 2015 · A	24	43	35→40	48→50	43	200/261/256	56	297	2	7	32%	8%	41	-2.3	218/280/301	83	347	5	10	35%	7%	61	-1.0	226/292/319	93	370	5	13	37%	8%	67	-0.2
✕Jose Toussen 2014 · A	24	43	35→30	44→50	44	201/249/258	57	260	2	9	23%	6%	37	-2.7	206/257/275	69	281	3	12	26%	6%	44	-2.1	192/232/231	38	269	0	19	27%	5%	19	-1.1
✕Matthew Devins 2007 · A	24	45	37→40	45	51	213/291/280	67	258	5	9	19%	8%	62	-0.9	221/289/308	87	273	7	6	21%	8%	68	-0.5	223/292/314	92	264	9	2	18%	8%	69	-0.2
✕Taylor Krick 2011 · A	23	43	38→30	48→40	51	205/292/282	77	270	6	7	25%	10%	63	-0.8	226/312/290	64	313	3	5	26%	8%	73	-0.1	233/324/284	51	328	2	2	26%	8%	74	-0.0