Kevin Vaupel — OGILVIE

Kevin Vaupel P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 25 LHP 6'1" / 210 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 70 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA5.01

FIP5.01

K%18.7%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%7.1%

ROS IP70

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2025	23	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	30	1	53	244	62	23	5	3%	1.8	18.8%	11.1%	7.7%	2.6%	3.71	4.33	—
2025	23	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	30	1	53	244	62	23	5	3%	1.8	18.8%	11.1%	7.7%	2.6%	3.71	4.33	—
2025	23	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	30	1	53	244	62	23	5	3%	1.8	25.4%	9.4%	16.0%	2.0%	3.71	3.29	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIA	67	0	70	296	55	34	9	0%	1.0	18.7%	11.6%	7.1%	3.0%	5.01	5.01	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIA	67	0	70	296	57	34	9	0%	1.0	19.4%	11.4%	8.0%	3.0%	4.92	4.92	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIA	66	0	69	291	57	33	9	0%	1.0	19.7%	11.3%	8.4%	3.0%	4.89	4.91	-0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIA	64	0	67	282	56	32	9	0%	1.0	19.7%	11.3%	8.4%	3.1%	4.92	4.96	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIA	61	0	64	270	53	31	9	0%	1.0	19.6%	11.5%	8.1%	3.3%	5.01	5.08	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIA	29	0	30	127	25	14	4	0%	1.0	19.4%	11.4%	8.0%	3.0%	4.92	4.92	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIA	41	0	43	182	36	20	5	0%	1.0	19.7%	11.3%	8.4%	3.0%	4.89	4.91	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIA	48	0	50	211	42	24	7	0%	1.0	19.7%	11.3%	8.4%	3.1%	4.92	4.96	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIA	50	0	52	220	43	25	7	0%	1.0	19.6%	11.5%	8.1%	3.3%	5.01	5.08	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		167	0	175	741	145	84	23	0%	1.1	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	3.1%	4.94	4.60	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	96	26	0%	1.1	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	3.1%	4.94	4.60	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		31	1	54	247	47	27	6	3%	1.8	19.0%	11.0%	8.0%	2.5%	3.64	4.28	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		114	4	200	909	173	100	23	3%	1.8	19.0%	11.0%	8.0%	2.5%	3.64	4.28	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kevin Vaupel (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.01	18.7%	11.6%	3.0%	—	4.93	19.6%	8.3%	206	-0.08	—	—	—
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	88
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	87
Luis Perez L 2011 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	18.4%	8.8%	3.1%	.317	3.32	22.3%	13.2%	42	-1.03	3.32	173	87
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	86
Joe Kemlage L 2023 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.6%	11.7%	4.1%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	128	85
Williams Jerez L 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	17.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.294	3.81	24.0%	15.1%	127	-0.24	3.58	364	85
Aaron Fultz L 2000 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.7%	9.4%	2.7%	.294	3.88	19.4%	12.5%	180	-0.12	3.46	480	84
Robby Ahlstrom L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	21.9%	11.6%	2.1%	.294	4.02	20.7%	11.1%	120	+0.13	3.79	332	84
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	84
Will Lamb L 2016 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	15.3%	11.7%	4.3%	.280	5.78	20.0%	6.0%	67	+0.12	3.64	178	84
Ryne Slack L 2017 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	17.4%	13.2%	2.0%	.308	5.59	13.9%	1.8%	49	+1.17	4.07	212	83
Gerardo Concepción L 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	16.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.53	104	83
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	83
Michael Johnson L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	25	SU	4.67	18.2%	10.4%	3.3%	.352	4.72	17.4%	7.6%	129	+0.05	3.92	256	83
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	82
Russell Smith L 2024 · 4.00 FIP	25	SU	4.00	19.0%	13.9%	1.4%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	175	82
Trent Szkutnik L 2019 · 4.38 FIP	25	SU	4.38	18.4%	11.8%	2.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	429	82
Tom Windle L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	25	SU	4.01	16.7%	10.3%	1.8%	.228	4.13	19.3%	7.0%	105	+0.12	3.68	330	82
Nick Swiney L 2024 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.7%	11.2%	3.8%	.307	4.93	15.1%	1.5%	49	-0.02	2.29	290	81
Paul Fry L 2017 · 4.66 FIP	25	SU	4.66	21.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.338	3.43	24.6%	14.6%	159	-1.23	1.78	560	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	19.4%	11.4%	1.19	4.95
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Miguel Castro ('25)	2.3	67	20.4%	11.7%	1.14	4.24
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43