Jose Zerpa — OGILVIE

Jose Zerpa P Inland Empire 66ers

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs A peak 0.5 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%13.9%

BB%6.7%

K-BB%7.2%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL6060

CMD4040

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	12	0	23	96	34	8	0	0%	1.9	24.1%	10.4%	13.7%	0.0%	2.70	2.39	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	12	0	23	96	34	8	0	0%	1.9	24.1%	10.4%	13.7%	0.0%	2.70	2.39	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	12	0	23	96	34	8	0	0%	1.9	35.4%	8.3%	27.1%	0.0%	2.70	1.21	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	10	0	11	49	9	6	1	0%	1.1	18.4%	12.2%	6.1%	2.0%	4.22	4.22	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	10	0	11	49	9	6	1	0%	1.1	18.4%	12.2%	6.1%	2.0%	4.22	4.22	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	10	0	11	49	9	6	1	0%	1.1	18.4%	12.2%	6.1%	2.0%	4.22	4.32	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	58	237	46	15	2	0%	1.7	14.6%	5.4%	9.2%	1.7%	3.39	3.50	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	58	237	46	15	2	0%	1.7	14.6%	5.4%	9.2%	1.7%	3.39	3.50	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	0	58	237	46	15	2	0%	1.7	19.4%	6.3%	13.1%	0.8%	3.39	2.74	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	10	0	23	98	23	4	2	0%	2.3	17.4%	4.8%	12.6%	2.7%	4.70	3.70	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	10	0	23	98	23	4	2	0%	2.3	17.4%	4.8%	12.6%	2.7%	4.70	3.70	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	SEA	10	0	23	98	23	4	2	0%	2.3	23.5%	4.1%	19.4%	2.0%	4.70	2.76	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SEA	52	0	55	233	38	15	7	0%	1.1	16.3%	6.6%	9.7%	2.8%	4.56	4.48	+0.0
2028	23	MLB MLE	SEA	54	0	57	242	43	16	7	0%	1.1	17.8%	6.5%	11.3%	2.8%	4.41	4.32	+0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	SEA	56	0	59	247	46	16	7	0%	1.0	18.6%	6.4%	12.2%	2.8%	4.31	4.23	+0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	SEA	56	0	59	250	48	16	7	0%	1.1	19.1%	6.3%	12.8%	2.8%	4.23	4.18	+0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	SEA	56	0	59	250	48	16	7	0%	1.1	19.3%	6.3%	13.0%	2.8%	4.19	4.16	+0.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	SEA	56	0	58	247	48	16	7	0%	1.0	19.3%	6.3%	12.9%	2.8%	4.19	4.20	+0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	SEA	26	0	27	114	19	7	3	0%	1.0	16.3%	6.6%	9.7%	2.8%	4.56	4.48	+0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	SEA	40	0	42	177	32	11	5	0%	1.1	17.8%	6.5%	11.3%	2.8%	4.41	4.32	+0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	SEA	47	0	49	207	38	13	6	0%	1.0	18.6%	6.4%	12.2%	2.8%	4.31	4.23	+0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	SEA	50	0	52	220	42	14	6	0%	1.0	19.1%	6.3%	12.8%	2.8%	4.23	4.18	+0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	SEA	51	0	54	228	44	14	6	0%	1.1	19.3%	6.3%	13.0%	2.8%	4.19	4.16	+0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	SEA	51	0	54	228	44	14	6	0%	1.1	19.3%	6.3%	12.9%	2.8%	4.19	4.20	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		265	0	278	1174	218	75	33	0%	1.0	18.6%	6.4%	12.2%	2.8%	4.29	3.86	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	157	54	24	0%	1.1	18.6%	6.4%	12.2%	2.8%	4.29	3.86	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		66	0	115	480	84	33	8	0%	1.7	17.4%	7.0%	10.5%	1.6%	3.59	3.39	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		114	0	200	832	145	58	13	0%	1.7	17.4%	7.0%	10.5%	1.6%	3.59	3.39	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Zerpa (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	13.9%	6.7%	2.9%	—	4.34	17.6%	11.1%	171	-0.39	—	—	—
Tyler Zombro R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	22	SU	4.37	14.6%	8.9%	2.5%	.295	2.67	15.7%	12.7%	134	-1.70	2.22	172	90
Frainger Aranguren R 2018 · 4.06 FIP	21	SU	4.06	14.6%	8.3%	2.1%	.305	4.81	13.1%	-1.9%	70	+0.75	3.20	234	90
Aaron Brooks R 2015 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	15.2%	7.3%	2.5%	.314	3.54	13.7%	6.0%	77	-0.55	3.54	109	89
Dahan Batista R 2021 · 4.02 FIP	21	SU	4.02	12.5%	5.7%	2.3%	.323	4.34	9.2%	2.6%	36	+0.32	3.59	100	89
Joseilyn Gonzalez R 2022 · 4.98 FIP	20	SU	4.98	14.5%	8.5%	3.7%	.321	5.20	14.5%	-3.2%	107	+0.22	4.98	168	88
Matthew Gorst R 2017 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	15.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.269	3.89	16.6%	8.0%	130	-0.24	3.20	199	87
Fabian Anguamea R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	21	SU	4.77	14.7%	5.4%	4.1%	.284	4.38	17.4%	3.3%	87	-0.39	3.99	164	87
Justin Garcia R 2015 · 4.06 FIP	22	SU	4.06	14.0%	7.8%	2.1%	.234	4.71	16.0%	3.5%	112	+0.65	4.06	164	87
Elliot Ashbeck R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	21	SU	4.62	13.6%	4.5%	3.8%	.284	3.29	19.5%	13.3%	99	-1.33	2.24	229	87
Robbie Welhaf R 2018 · 4.06 FIP	23	SU	4.06	14.0%	7.6%	2.1%	.309	3.11	18.1%	15.0%	90	-0.95	3.11	121	87
Jake Newberry R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	21	SU	3.83	16.5%	7.2%	2.2%	.262	4.25	18.7%	9.1%	184	+0.42	3.23	410	87
Stephen Nogosek R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	21	SU	3.75	14.1%	5.6%	2.1%	.340	4.39	20.5%	6.6%	172	+0.64	2.56	419	86
Alexander Campos R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	17.0%	6.0%	3.0%	.281	4.66	11.1%	6.0%	135	+0.61	4.02	157	86
Mariano Rivera R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	22	SU	4.60	12.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.290	4.12	13.5%	5.8%	66	-0.48	3.64	135	86
Riley Davis R 2022 · 4.12 FIP	23	SU	4.12	15.3%	6.4%	2.7%	.237	4.41	13.3%	3.2%	81	+0.29	4.12	108	86
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	86
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	86
Sam Held R 2017 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	12.7%	5.4%	1.9%	.359	3.32	13.3%	9.7%	86	-0.43	3.32	119	86
Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.02	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.61	3.80	155	86
Gilberto Mendez R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	15.9%	5.8%	2.3%	.320	4.16	15.1%	7.4%	128	+0.41	3.75	189	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	55	18.0%	6.4%	1.08	4.35
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Brandon Kintzler ('21)	1.5	50	16.2%	6.3%	0.91	3.57
Adam Cimber ('24)	1.6	52	18.3%	6.6%	0.75	3.75
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43