Riley Davis
P
Modesto Nuts
Age 27
RHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 56 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119109vR 100
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
K%22.7%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.4%
ROS IP56
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 0 | 29 | 124 | 26 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 15.3% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.42 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 0 | 29 | 124 | 26 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.0% | 6.5% | 14.5% | 3.2% | 4.60 | 3.92 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 7 | 84 | 368 | 66 | 34 | 5 | 33% | 4.0 | 13.3% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.86 | 4.59 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 7 | 84 | 368 | 66 | 34 | 5 | 33% | 4.0 | 17.9% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 1.4% | 3.86 | 3.52 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 54 | 0 | 56 | 239 | 54 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 9.3% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 52 | 0 | 55 | 231 | 52 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 50 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 50 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 47 | 0 | 49 | 208 | 46 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 4.64 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 27 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 31 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 4.64 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 78 | 0 | 82 | 345 | 77 | 33 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.23 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 188 | 81 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.23 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 41 | 7 | 113 | 492 | 68 | 45 | 13 | 17% | 2.8 | 13.8% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 4.05 | 4.55 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 72 | 12 | 200 | 868 | 120 | 80 | 23 | 17% | 2.8 | 13.8% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 4.05 | 4.55 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Riley Davis (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 22.7% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.58 | 22.4% | 12.8% | 156 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 86 |
| Taylor Grover R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 80 |
| Derek Gordon R 2024 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 80 |
| Wil Jensen R 2025 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.41 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 368 | 80 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 79 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 78 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 78 |
| Jordan Lyles R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.89 | 22.6% | 6.7% | 3.4% | .284 | 4.94 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 379 | +1.05 | 3.38 | 1,080 | 77 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .295 | 3.60 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 269 | 77 |
| Caleb Bolden R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.55 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 222 | 76 |
| Jordan Milbrath R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 2.5% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 386 | 76 |
| Robert Kwiatkowski R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 18.3% | 9.0% | 2.4% | .255 | 4.31 | 15.9% | 2.3% | 20 | +0.30 | 4.01 | 254 | 76 |
| Brayden Spears R 2024 · 4.25 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.25 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 105 | 76 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.25 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 4.4% | .307 | 3.44 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.81 | 3.32 | 227 | 76 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 76 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.96 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 4.5% | .341 | 4.97 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 71 | +0.01 | 3.75 | 223 | 75 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .230 | 3.59 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 40 | -0.49 | 2.74 | 188 | 75 |
| Roman Mendez R 2025 · 4.13 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.13 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 2.5% | .246 | 4.87 | 20.9% | 10.7% | 116 | +0.74 | 4.12 | 230 | 75 |
| Jake Stinnett R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.07 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 356 | 75 |
| Nick Morreale R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.92 | 19.0% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .271 | 3.72 | 11.7% | -1.1% | 14 | -0.20 | 2.97 | 280 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 53 | 22.5% | 9.5% | 1.23 | 4.48 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |