Riley Davis
P
Modesto Nuts
+0.7
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.9 · 2028
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.7%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.4%
IP81
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2028
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 20 | 0 | 29 | 124 | 26 | 8 | 4 | 15.3% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 4.60 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 21 | 7 | 84 | 368 | 66 | 34 | 5 | 13.3% | 10.1% | 2.0% | 3.86 | 4.38 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 15 | 15 | 81 | 341 | 77 | 32 | 10 | 22.7% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 15 | 15 | 82 | 344 | 78 | 32 | 10 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.38 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 80 | 337 | 82 | 28 | 10 | 24.4% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.15 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 77 | 326 | 79 | 28 | 10 | 24.1% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.23 | 4.22 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 75 | 315 | 75 | 27 | 10 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.27 | 4.30 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 72 | 302 | 71 | 26 | 10 | 23.6% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.34 | 4.38 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 68 | 289 | 67 | 26 | 10 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 3.3% | 4.42 | 4.48 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 63 | 25 | 9 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 4.52 | 4.59 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 58 | 24 | 9 | 22.5% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 4.63 | 4.71 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 53 | 23 | 9 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 3.7% | 4.76 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 41 | 7 | 113 | 492 | 68 | 45 | 11 | 13.8% | 9.2% | 2.2% | 4.05 | 4.29 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 72 | 12 | 200 | 868 | 120 | 79 | 19 | 13.8% | 9.2% | 2.2% | 4.05 | 4.29 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Riley Davis (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 22.7% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.25 | 23.7% | 15.0% | 238 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Danny Farquhar R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 87 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 86 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 86 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 83 |
| Brett Sears R 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 83 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.06 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.83 | 2.32 | 1,443 | 82 |
| Wil Jensen R 2025 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.50 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 368 | 82 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 81 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .275 | 3.86 | 22.1% | 11.7% | 73 | +0.10 | 3.76 | 180 | 80 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.55 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.5% | .306 | 5.15 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.60 | 3.55 | 244 | 80 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.46 | 24.9% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .301 | 4.57 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 205 | +0.11 | 4.07 | 530 | 80 |
| Jordan Lyles R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.69 | 22.6% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .284 | 4.86 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 379 | +1.17 | 3.49 | 1,080 | 80 |
| Luis Cessa R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.54 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | .272 | 4.05 | 18.9% | 11.2% | 167 | -0.49 | 3.15 | 891 | 80 |
| Michael Lorenzen R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .266 | 3.90 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 160 | +0.47 | 3.19 | 1,070 | 80 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 80 |
| Tyler Duffey R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 21.1% | 6.5% | 3.2% | .265 | 2.81 | 30.4% | 22.3% | 158 | -1.08 | 2.34 | 803 | 79 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .368 | 4.33 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 79 | +0.28 | 2.95 | 492 | 79 |
| Heath Holder R 2025 · 3.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.24 | 21.9% | 7.5% | 1.9% | .263 | 5.58 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 85 | +2.34 | 2.92 | 367 | 79 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .341 | 4.75 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.05 | 3.70 | 205 | 78 |
| Trent Baker R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.77 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 420 | 78 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | -$0.0M |
| Totals | $6M | $16M | +$10M | ||