Phil Fox

P Birmingham Barons

Age 24 RHP 5'9" / 183 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	46	0	64	3.25	2.24	30.1%	4.6%	—	K 23.3% · BB 5.6% · FIP 3.37
2026	23	MIX2 levels	34	2	42	2.98	3.95	24.1%	8.0%	—	K 18.0% · BB 9.5% · FIP 5.22
2027PROJ	24	MLBCWS	86	0	90	4.36	4.36	20.8%	6.9%	0.2
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBCWS	38	0	40	4.29	4.25	21.7%	6.8%	0.1
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBCWS	58	0	61	4.24	4.20	22.2%	6.8%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control55Command60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsShay Schanaman (age 24) · Breckin Williams (age 24) · Silvino Bracho (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.36

FIP4.36

K%20.8%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%13.9%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD6060

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	64	259	78	12	5	0%	1.4	23.3%	5.6%	17.6%	2.8%	3.25	3.37	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	64	259	78	12	5	0%	1.4	23.3%	5.6%	17.6%	2.8%	3.25	3.37	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	64	259	78	12	5	0%	1.4	30.1%	4.6%	25.5%	1.9%	3.25	2.24	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	2	42	174	42	14	6	6%	1.2	18.0%	9.5%	8.5%	4.4%	2.98	5.22	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	2	42	174	42	14	6	6%	1.2	18.0%	9.5%	8.5%	4.4%	2.98	5.22	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	2	42	174	42	14	6	6%	1.2	24.1%	8.0%	16.1%	3.4%	2.98	3.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CWS	86	0	90	380	79	26	12	0%	1.0	20.8%	6.9%	13.9%	3.2%	4.36	4.36	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CWS	87	0	91	385	84	26	12	0%	1.0	21.7%	6.8%	14.9%	3.2%	4.29	4.25	+0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	CWS	87	0	91	385	86	26	12	0%	1.0	22.2%	6.8%	15.4%	3.2%	4.24	4.20	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	CWS	85	0	90	379	84	26	12	0%	1.1	22.2%	7.0%	15.2%	3.2%	4.25	4.24	+0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	CWS	83	0	87	367	81	26	12	0%	1.0	22.1%	7.1%	14.9%	3.3%	4.30	4.33	+0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	CWS	79	0	83	351	77	26	12	0%	1.1	21.8%	7.4%	14.5%	3.4%	4.40	4.46	+0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	CWS	74	0	78	330	77	23	12	0%	1.1	23.5%	6.9%	16.6%	3.6%	4.38	4.37	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	CWS	38	0	40	169	37	12	5	0%	1.1	21.7%	6.8%	14.9%	3.2%	4.29	4.25	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	CWS	58	0	61	258	57	18	8	0%	1.1	22.2%	6.8%	15.4%	3.2%	4.24	4.20	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	CWS	67	0	70	296	66	21	9	0%	1.0	22.2%	7.0%	15.2%	3.2%	4.25	4.24	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	CWS	70	0	73	308	68	22	10	0%	1.0	22.1%	7.1%	14.9%	3.3%	4.30	4.33	+0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	CWS	70	0	73	308	67	23	11	0%	1.0	21.8%	7.4%	14.5%	3.4%	4.40	4.46	+0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	CWS	67	0	70	296	69	20	11	0%	1.0	23.5%	6.9%	16.6%	3.6%	4.38	4.37	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		368	0	387	1634	364	115	55	0%	1.1	22.3%	7.0%	15.3%	3.3%	4.31	3.94	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	188	59	28	0%	1.1	22.3%	7.0%	15.3%	3.3%	4.31	3.94	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		80	2	106	433	92	31	15	2%	1.3	21.1%	7.2%	14.0%	3.4%	3.14	4.11	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		151	4	200	817	173	59	28	2%	1.3	21.1%	7.2%	14.0%	3.4%	3.14	4.11	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Phil Fox (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	20.8%	6.9%	3.2%	—	4.23	22.1%	15.2%	272	-0.13	—	—	—
Shay Schanaman R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	21.0%	7.6%	3.7%	.292	6.05	16.4%	2.8%	90	+1.71	4.34	148	89
Breckin Williams R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	22.6%	7.3%	2.8%	.282	2.78	23.4%	15.8%	48	-0.87	2.76	107	88
Silvino Bracho R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	24	SU	4.04	20.9%	6.6%	3.4%	.316	3.74	29.0%	20.6%	121	-0.30	2.49	395	87
Nick Rumbelow R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	23	SU	3.28	22.6%	6.1%	2.4%	.295	3.54	24.8%	16.4%	64	+0.26	2.03	164	87
Kyle McClellan R 2008 · 3.68 FIP	24	SU	3.68	18.0%	7.3%	2.1%	.304	4.41	15.6%	8.0%	284	+0.73	3.68	378	87
Matt Pierpont R 2015 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	17.8%	7.1%	3.1%	.295	3.25	21.7%	13.8%	190	-0.96	2.76	280	86
Alex Phillips R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	24	SU	3.26	22.0%	8.0%	1.8%	.263	4.62	23.2%	14.6%	72	+1.36	3.26	139	85
Kaleb Fontenot R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	24	SU	4.48	20.7%	8.6%	3.7%	.264	3.71	14.7%	5.2%	69	-0.77	3.71	155	85
Mayckol Guaipe R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	24	SU	3.97	17.0%	7.1%	2.6%	.330	2.49	21.2%	16.0%	33	-1.48	1.88	136	85
John Stankiewicz R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	24	SU	3.91	19.3%	6.6%	2.9%	.251	4.47	16.2%	7.1%	107	+0.56	2.78	271	85
J.R. Graham R 2015 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	18.7%	7.4%	3.5%	.317	3.63	20.4%	10.1%	61	-0.76	3.31	125	85
Ramon E Ramirez R 2006 · 3.32 FIP	24	SU	3.32	21.4%	8.4%	1.8%	.272	3.33	20.4%	11.9%	159	+0.01	2.37	568	85
Nelson Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	25	SU	3.42	19.6%	7.7%	1.8%	.293	4.98	17.7%	7.8%	115	+1.56	3.42	258	85
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	85
Micah Dallas R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	24	SU	4.04	18.7%	7.1%	3.0%	.273	4.34	17.8%	8.2%	104	+0.30	3.60	202	84
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	23.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.262	6.05	20.5%	11.4%	128	+2.53	3.52	207	84
Nick Merkel R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	25	SU	3.99	22.8%	7.1%	3.5%	.284	3.44	20.7%	10.3%	129	-0.55	3.15	205	84
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	83
John Brebbia R 2016 · 4.11 FIP	26	SU	4.11	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.346	3.20	27.6%	21.4%	215	-0.91	2.89	576	83
Ben Bracewell R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	24	SU	3.21	19.0%	6.3%	1.7%	.270	3.96	14.7%	7.4%	350	+0.75	3.21	538	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	87	22.0%	7.0%	1.28	4.31
Mike Ryba ('35-'46, 4 WAR*)	3.9	112	19.5%*	7.2%*	1.34*	4.23*
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Jimmy Zinn ('19-'29, 1 WAR*)	1.5	75	21.3%*	7.0%*	1.24*	4.61*
Mickey Harris ('40-'52, 8 WAR*)	5.2	117	23.2%*	8.1%*	1.19*	4.34*
Matt Andriese ('24)	2.6	74	21.8%	6.7%	1.36	4.65
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20