Josiah Romeo

P Stockton Ports

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 195 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.4 · 2031

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKOAK	13	11	48	8.81	3.43	14.0%	9.7%	—	K 9.5% · BB 12.2% · FIP 4.19
2026	20	MIX2 levels	23	21	107	5.05	3.90	19.7%	8.1%	—	K 14.3% · BB 9.7% · FIP 4.97
2027PROJ	21	MLBOAK	15	15	75	5.89	5.89	10.7%	13.2%	-0.8
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBOAK	10	10	50	5.54	5.43	13.9%	12.2%	-0.3
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBOAK	14	14	76	5.28	5.16	15.8%	11.6%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff20Control40Command20

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 90%

CompsTroy Miller (age 22) · Chad Durbin (age 22) · Ofreidy Gómez (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.89

FIP5.89

K%10.7%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%-2.4%

Proj IP75

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2020

CTRL4040

CMD2020

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	13	11	48	236	33	23	1	85%	3.7	9.5%	12.2%	-2.7%	0.6%	8.81	4.19	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	13	11	48	236	33	23	1	85%	3.7	9.5%	12.2%	-2.7%	0.6%	8.81	4.19	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	13	11	48	236	33	23	1	85%	3.7	14.0%	9.7%	4.2%	0.4%	8.81	3.43	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	107	468	92	38	12	91%	4.7	14.3%	9.7%	4.6%	3.4%	5.05	4.97	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	107	468	92	38	12	91%	4.7	14.3%	9.7%	4.6%	3.4%	5.05	4.97	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	107	468	92	38	12	91%	4.7	19.7%	8.1%	11.5%	2.6%	5.05	3.90	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	OAK	15	15	75	317	34	42	10	100%	5.0	10.7%	13.2%	-2.4%	3.0%	5.89	5.89	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	OAK	20	20	101	427	59	52	13	100%	5.1	13.9%	12.2%	1.6%	2.9%	5.58	5.47	-0.6
2029	23	MLB MLE	OAK	20	20	105	443	70	51	13	100%	5.2	15.8%	11.6%	4.2%	2.9%	5.32	5.20	-0.4
2030	24	MLB MLE	OAK	19	19	108	454	77	51	13	100%	5.7	17.0%	11.2%	5.8%	2.9%	5.13	5.04	-0.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	OAK	19	19	109	459	81	50	13	100%	5.7	17.7%	10.9%	6.7%	2.9%	5.01	4.95	-0.1
2032	26	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	109	459	82	50	13	100%	6.0	17.9%	10.9%	7.0%	2.9%	4.96	4.92	-0.0
2033	27	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	107	453	81	50	13	100%	6.0	17.9%	11.0%	6.9%	2.9%	4.96	4.96	-0.1
2034	28	MLB MLE	OAK	17	17	104	439	78	49	13	100%	6.1	17.8%	11.1%	6.7%	3.0%	5.01	5.04	-0.2
2035	29	MLB MLE	OAK	17	17	99	419	74	48	13	100%	5.8	17.5%	11.4%	6.2%	3.2%	5.11	5.18	-0.3
2036	30	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	93	394	68	46	13	100%	5.8	17.2%	11.7%	5.5%	3.4%	5.26	5.35	-0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	50	211	29	26	6	100%	5.0	13.9%	12.2%	1.6%	2.9%	5.54	5.43	-0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	76	321	51	37	9	100%	5.4	15.8%	11.6%	4.2%	2.8%	5.28	5.16	-0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	89	376	64	42	11	100%	5.6	17.0%	11.2%	5.8%	2.8%	5.09	5.00	-0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	96	405	72	44	11	100%	6.0	17.7%	10.9%	6.7%	2.8%	4.97	4.91	-0.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	99	418	75	46	12	100%	6.2	17.9%	10.9%	7.0%	2.8%	4.92	4.88	-0.0
2033	27	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	99	418	75	46	12	100%	6.2	17.9%	11.0%	6.9%	2.8%	4.92	4.92	-0.1
2034	28	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	97	410	73	46	12	100%	6.1	17.8%	11.1%	6.7%	2.9%	4.97	5.00	-0.2
2035	29	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	94	397	70	45	12	100%	5.9	17.5%	11.4%	6.2%	3.1%	5.07	5.14	-0.3
2036	30	MLB CTX	OAK	15	15	89	376	65	44	12	100%	5.9	17.2%	11.7%	5.5%	3.3%	5.21	5.30	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		136	136	790	3337	574	376	97	100%	5.8	17.2%	11.3%	5.9%	2.9%	5.08	4.68	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	145	95	25	100%	5.8	17.2%	11.3%	5.9%	2.9%	5.08	4.68	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		36	32	155	704	90	74	17	89%	4.3	12.7%	10.5%	2.2%	2.5%	6.21	4.71	-2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	41	200	908	115	96	22	89%	4.3	12.7%	10.5%	2.2%	2.5%	6.21	4.71	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josiah Romeo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.89	10.7%	13.2%	3.0%	—	5.23	15.6%	4.0%	314	-0.66	—	—	—
Troy Miller R 2019 · 5.09 FIP	22	SP	5.09	12.0%	12.7%	2.5%	.299	5.30	18.3%	8.3%	45	+0.21	5.09	168	88
Chad Durbin R 2000 · 5.93 FIP	22	SP	5.93	10.6%	12.0%	4.0%	.301	4.85	12.2%	4.7%	179	-1.08	3.37	811	87
Ofreidy Gómez R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	21	SP	5.17	12.8%	14.5%	2.4%	.266	4.86	14.4%	4.0%	401	-0.31	3.58	664	86
Heath Fillmyer R 2015 · 5.38 FIP	21	SP	5.38	12.8%	14.9%	2.7%	.339	4.43	15.2%	6.6%	433	-0.95	3.52	687	85
Yoan López R 2015 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP	4.83	12.6%	12.9%	2.1%	.290	4.00	22.8%	12.1%	154	-0.83	2.21	377	85
Moises Ruiz R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	8.7%	12.8%	3.0%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	104	84
Jefry Rodriguez R 2015 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	9.9%	14.6%	2.0%	.286	4.07	16.6%	5.2%	333	-1.13	3.30	578	83
Dan Wright R 2001 · 5.82 FIP	23	SP	5.82	11.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.299	5.25	14.3%	5.0%	300	-0.57	4.85	367	83
Luis Cedeno R 2015 · 6.24 FIP	21	SP	6.24	10.4%	13.6%	4.2%	.275	4.11	16.4%	6.3%	169	-2.13	3.36	215	83
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	82
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	82
Shane Watson R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	21	SP	5.11	11.5%	10.6%	3.0%	.333	4.91	12.5%	2.1%	194	-0.20	4.51	237	82
Bryce Warrecker R 2024 · 5.43 FIP	22	SP	5.43	11.3%	11.7%	3.3%	.271	3.82	20.1%	9.6%	91	-1.61	2.47	154	82
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	82
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	82
Igol Feliz R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	22	SP-	4.90	7.2%	12.4%	1.5%	.234	5.77	6.7%	-2.1%	73	+0.87	4.90	135	81
Abel Duarte R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	21	SP-	4.84	12.5%	10.3%	2.7%	.306	3.93	13.9%	6.7%	79	-0.91	3.19	127	81
Jeffry Fernandez R 2015 · 6.08 FIP	22	SP	6.08	9.2%	10.6%	4.4%	.286	4.51	12.8%	3.7%	80	-1.57	4.51	195	81
Edelvis Perez R 2024 · 5.19 FIP	19	SP	5.19	11.9%	13.8%	2.4%	.267	5.56	17.9%	-1.9%	62	+0.37	5.19	103	81
Nate Cornejo R 2001 · 6.17 FIP	21	SP	6.17	10.1%	11.1%	4.6%	.329	4.63	6.7%	0.3%	270	-1.54	4.56	313	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.0	101	16.5%	11.5%	1.16	5.20
Paul Abbott ('04)	3.6	80	15.6%	12.3%	1.26	4.92
Jesse Jefferson ('73-'81, -1 WAR*)	5.4	121	17.2%*	10.7%*	1.32*	5.13*
Roxie Lawson ('30-'40, 1 WAR*)	4.3	106	14.5%*	11.3%*	1.22*	4.77*
Jaret Wright ('07)	4.9	108	16.0%	10.7%	0.92	5.09
Pete Broberg ('71-'78, -4 WAR*)	4.8	120	18.6%*	10.9%*	1.18*	5.49*
Kip Wells ('12)	6.7	112	16.1%	10.6%	1.02	4.71