Luis Rodriguez — OGILVIE

Luis Rodriguez P Asheville Tourists

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 181 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 62 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146137vR 129

ERA5.92

FIP5.92

K%11.9%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%-1.1%

ROS IP62

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	15	0	33	138	45	6	1	0%	2.2	22.2%	5.4%	16.7%	0.8%	3.55	2.37	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL White Sox	15	0	33	138	45	6	1	0%	2.2	32.6%	4.3%	28.3%	0.7%	3.55	1.31	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	7	62	260	64	23	3	37%	3.2	17.3%	10.7%	6.6%	1.4%	2.63	3.75	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	7	62	260	64	23	3	37%	3.2	17.3%	10.7%	6.6%	1.4%	2.63	3.75	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	7	62	260	64	23	3	37%	3.2	24.6%	8.8%	15.8%	1.2%	2.63	2.78	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	13	105	455	89	50	10	52%	4.2	14.6%	12.9%	1.7%	2.7%	3.33	4.98	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	13	105	455	89	50	10	52%	4.2	14.6%	12.9%	1.7%	2.7%	3.33	4.98	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	13	105	455	89	50	10	52%	4.2	19.6%	11.0%	8.6%	2.2%	3.33	4.07	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	14	14	62	282	44	24	11	100%	4.4	12.0%	9.8%	2.2%	4.9%	5.95	6.00	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	14	14	62	282	44	24	11	100%	4.4	12.0%	9.8%	2.2%	4.9%	5.95	6.00	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	14	14	62	282	44	24	11	100%	4.4	15.6%	8.5%	7.1%	3.9%	5.95	5.15	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	HOU	9	9	62	262	31	34	9	100%	6.9	11.9%	13.0%	-1.1%	3.3%	5.92	5.92	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	97	410	59	49	13	100%	6.9	14.4%	12.0%	2.4%	3.2%	5.62	5.54	-0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	98	415	66	47	13	100%	7.0	15.9%	11.3%	4.5%	3.2%	5.40	5.32	-0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	98	415	69	46	13	100%	7.0	16.7%	11.1%	5.6%	3.2%	5.27	5.22	-0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	97	409	69	45	13	100%	6.9	16.8%	11.1%	5.7%	3.2%	5.24	5.23	-0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	94	397	66	45	13	100%	6.7	16.7%	11.3%	5.4%	3.3%	5.29	5.32	-0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	90	379	62	44	13	100%	6.9	16.5%	11.5%	5.0%	3.5%	5.38	5.45	-0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	84	356	57	42	13	100%	7.0	16.1%	11.8%	4.3%	3.7%	5.53	5.62	-0.7
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	42	177	26	21	6	100%	7.0	14.4%	12.0%	2.4%	3.2%	5.62	5.54	-0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	9	9	65	274	44	31	9	100%	7.2	15.9%	11.3%	4.5%	3.2%	5.40	5.32	-0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	78	329	55	37	10	100%	7.1	16.7%	11.1%	5.6%	3.2%	5.27	5.22	-0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	83	350	59	39	11	100%	6.9	16.8%	11.1%	5.7%	3.2%	5.24	5.23	-0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	84	355	59	40	12	100%	7.0	16.7%	11.3%	5.4%	3.3%	5.29	5.32	-0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	82	346	57	40	12	100%	6.8	16.5%	11.5%	5.0%	3.5%	5.38	5.45	-0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	78	329	53	39	12	100%	7.1	16.1%	11.8%	4.3%	3.7%	5.53	5.62	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	74	511	2157	352	246	72	100%	6.9	16.3%	11.4%	4.9%	3.3%	5.37	4.99	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		29	29	200	844	138	96	28	100%	6.9	16.3%	11.4%	4.9%	3.3%	5.37	4.99	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		73	34	262	1135	176	121	31	47%	3.6	15.5%	10.7%	4.8%	2.7%	3.81	4.63	-6.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	26	200	866	134	93	23	47%	3.6	15.5%	10.7%	4.8%	2.7%	3.81	4.63	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.92	11.9%	13.0%	3.3%	—	5.36	15.7%	4.2%	294	-0.56	—	—	—
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	86
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	84
Dane Myers R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	23	SW	5.32	12.2%	11.5%	3.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.26	125	82
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	82
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	82
LJ Brewster R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	9.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	143	82
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	82
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP-	4.98	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	.348	3.92	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.06	3.30	218	81
Aaron Cook R 2002 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP-	4.83	9.1%	8.4%	2.6%	.301	4.27	7.8%	0.7%	304	-0.56	3.65	1,406	81
Jheyson Caraballo R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	21	SW	5.25	11.9%	10.6%	3.3%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	101	81
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	81
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	81
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	80
Tyler Schlaffer R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	23	SP-	5.08	14.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.298	4.13	20.3%	7.7%	190	-0.95	3.79	399	80
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	80
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	80
Jorge Sosa R 2002 · 5.77 FIP	25	SW	5.77	11.1%	12.4%	3.7%	.228	4.55	15.7%	5.5%	362	-1.22	4.06	773	80
Justin Dillon R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	24	SP-	5.26	11.8%	8.8%	3.7%	.265	4.34	15.6%	9.1%	124	-0.92	3.65	239	80
Zach Willeman R 2019 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	10.8%	15.0%	2.7%	.296	4.98	21.3%	7.8%	108	-0.59	4.05	264	80
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	90	15.8%	11.6%	1.28	5.43
Mac Suzuki ('02)	2.3	93	15.4%	12.5%	1.29	5.72
Paul Abbott ('04)	3.6	80	15.6%	12.3%	1.26	4.92
Brandon Duckworth ('08)	2.6	73	16.4%	9.9%	1.11	5.28
Blake Stein ('02)	2.4	95	17.4%	13.2%	1.48	5.41
Mike Oquist ('99)	2.8	111	14.1%	9.8%	1.18	5.46
Matt Kinney ('05)	1.9	97	16.8%	9.9%	1.39	5.29