Luis Rodriguez — OGILVIE

Luis Rodriguez P Asheville Tourists

+0.2 WAR

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 181 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 2.0 · 2030

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%19.6%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%8.8%

IP105

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.0peak

2030

K†4555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	19	ROK	DSL White Sox	15	0	33	138	45	6	1	22.2%	5.4%	0.7%	3.55	2.31	+1.0
2024	20	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	19	7	62	260	64	23	3	17.3%	10.7%	1.4%	2.63	3.74	+0.9
2025	21	A+	Asheville Tourists	25	13	105	455	89	50	10	14.6%	12.9%	2.7%	3.33	4.96	+0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	2	2	6	26	8	2	2	—	—	—	8.53	—	—
ROS	22	MLB	HOU	19	19	105	445	87	48	13	19.6%	10.8%	2.8%	4.76	4.76	+0.6
2026 Total	22	MLB	HOU	—	—	112	471	95	50	15	20.2%	10.6%	3.1%	4.97	4.49	+1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	23	MLB	HOU	23	23	129	546	113	54	15	20.7%	9.8%	2.8%	4.59	4.52	+1.1
2028	24	MLB	HOU	27	27	148	627	134	58	18	21.4%	9.2%	2.8%	4.45	4.37	+1.6
2029	25	MLB	HOU	30	30	162	685	149	61	19	21.8%	8.9%	2.8%	4.36	4.30	+1.8
2030	26	MLB	HOU	31	31	169	715	157	63	20	22.0%	8.8%	2.8%	4.31	4.27	+2.0
2031	27	MLB	HOU	31	31	172	726	160	64	20	22.0%	8.9%	2.8%	4.29	4.28	+2.0
2032	28	MLB	HOU	31	31	171	724	159	65	21	22.0%	8.9%	2.8%	4.30	4.31	+1.9
2033	29	MLB	HOU	30	30	168	707	155	64	20	21.9%	9.0%	2.9%	4.33	4.36	+1.8
2034	30	MLB	HOU	30	30	162	686	149	62	20	21.6%	9.1%	2.9%	4.38	4.42	+1.6
2035	31	MLB	HOU	29	29	157	662	142	61	20	21.4%	9.2%	3.0%	4.45	4.49	+1.4
2036	32	MLB	HOU	27	27	150	635	134	60	20	21.1%	9.4%	3.1%	4.53	4.58	+1.2
2037	33	MLB	HOU	26	26	144	607	126	58	19	20.8%	9.6%	3.2%	4.62	4.68	+1.0
2038	34	MLB	HOU	25	25	136	576	118	56	19	20.5%	9.8%	3.3%	4.72	4.79	+0.8
2039	35	MLB	HOU	23	23	129	543	109	54	18	20.1%	10.0%	3.4%	4.83	4.91	+0.6
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			61	22	206	879	150	96	19	17.1%	10.9%	2.1%	3.32	4.21	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—			59	21	200	852	145	93	18	17.1%	10.9%	2.1%	3.32	4.21	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	19.6%	10.8%	2.8%	—	4.39	21.4%	12.1%	440	-0.37	—	—	—
Braden Webb R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.79	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.34	4.45	308	93
Aaron Davenport R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP-	4.86	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	5.01	16.9%	5.2%	391	+0.15	4.06	498	93
Chris McElvain R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	22	SP-	4.78	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	4.29	16.7%	6.6%	122	-0.49	4.06	218	93
Jake Peppers R 2026 · 5.10 FIP	22	SP-	5.10	15.3%	12.2%	3.2%	.293	4.80	15.7%	0.5%	63	-0.30	4.80	160	92
Adam Hill R 2026 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP-	4.99	15.6%	12.6%	2.9%	.297	6.14	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.15	4.99	213	92
Chase Cohen R 2026 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP-	4.69	15.8%	13.0%	2.3%	.317	4.28	22.1%	9.2%	85	-0.41	3.54	263	92
Will Sanders R 2026 · 4.90 FIP	22	SP-	4.90	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.297	4.22	20.2%	11.5%	139	-0.68	4.01	231	91
Matt Ruppenthal R 2027 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.25	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.26	3.75	283	91
Sam Carlson R 2026 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	17.9%	11.2%	2.3%	.334	3.73	19.9%	9.1%	153	-0.56	3.20	313	91
Josh Bostick R 2026 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP-	4.71	19.3%	11.2%	3.3%	.304	5.41	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.70	4.71	226	91
Tanner Houck R 2026 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP-	4.96	16.5%	13.3%	2.9%	.294	3.10	24.3%	14.8%	215	-1.86	2.28	733	91
Jamison Hill R 2027 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP-	4.80	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	4.97	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.17	4.68	326	91
Kyle Johnston R 2026 · 4.52 FIP	22	SP-	4.52	16.2%	13.8%	1.9%	.290	4.08	16.4%	4.5%	194	-0.44	3.80	395	90
Devereaux Harrison R 2026 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP-	4.96	17.6%	11.3%	3.5%	.252	4.82	17.2%	4.7%	230	-0.14	4.73	324	90
David Palladino R 2026 · 4.93 FIP	22	SP-	4.93	14.4%	11.8%	2.8%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	122	90
Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.87	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.68	2.16	615	90
Garrett Cave R 2026 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP-	4.99	16.4%	14.9%	2.5%	.301	4.97	17.8%	-8.8%	40	-0.02	4.97	156	90
Austin Brice R 2027 · 4.61 FIP	23	SP-	4.61	18.5%	13.7%	2.4%	.295	3.70	19.0%	12.0%	222	-0.91	3.45	542	89
Nick Hull R 2027 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.78	18.8%	6.8%	146	+0.51	4.27	238	89
Wil Crowe R 2027 · 4.65 FIP	23	SP-	4.65	15.0%	10.9%	2.6%	.278	4.65	18.9%	9.7%	266	+0.00	4.00	518	89

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.0	$18M	+$17M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.0	$19M	+$18M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.9	$18M	+$17M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.8	$18M	+$16M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.6	$16M	+$13M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.4	$15M	+$11M
Totals		$12M		$103M	+$91M