Luis Rodriguez
P
Asheville Tourists
Age 22
RHP
6'2" / 181 lbs
A+
peak 0.3 · 2030
2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146137vR 128
ERA5.67
FIP5.67
K%13.6%
BB%14.2%
K-BB%-0.5%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 127 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL White Sox | 15 | 0 | 33 | 138 | 45 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 2.2 | 22.2% | 5.4% | 16.7% | 0.7% | 3.55 | 2.30 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL White Sox | 15 | 0 | 33 | 138 | 45 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 2.2 | 32.6% | 4.3% | 28.3% | 0.7% | 3.55 | 1.31 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 7 | 62 | 260 | 64 | 23 | 3 | 37% | 3.2 | 17.3% | 10.7% | 6.6% | 1.3% | 2.63 | 3.68 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 7 | 62 | 260 | 64 | 23 | 3 | 37% | 3.2 | 24.6% | 8.8% | 15.8% | 1.2% | 2.63 | 2.78 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 13 | 105 | 455 | 89 | 50 | 10 | 52% | 4.2 | 14.6% | 12.9% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.33 | 4.93 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 13 | 105 | 455 | 89 | 50 | 10 | 52% | 4.2 | 19.6% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 2.2% | 3.33 | 4.07 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 14 | 14 | 62 | 282 | 44 | 24 | 11 | 100% | 4.4 | 12.0% | 9.8% | 2.2% | 4.9% | 5.95 | 6.00 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 65 | 274 | 37 | 39 | 8 | 100% | 5.0 | 13.6% | 14.2% | -0.5% | 2.8% | 5.67 | 5.67 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 13.6% | 14.2% | -0.5% | 2.8% | 5.67 | 5.67 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 127 | 556 | 81 | 63 | 19 | — | — | 14.6% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.81 | 5.83 | -0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 13.6% | 14.2% | -0.5% | 2.8% | 5.67 | 5.29 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 76 | 323 | 52 | 41 | 9 | 100% | 7.0 | 16.0% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 5.39 | 5.29 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 78 | 331 | 57 | 40 | 9 | 100% | 6.5 | 17.3% | 12.0% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 5.16 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 79 | 335 | 61 | 39 | 9 | 100% | 6.6 | 18.1% | 11.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 5.01 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 26 | 21 | 4 | 100% | 6.3 | 16.0% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 5.39 | 5.29 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 55 | 232 | 40 | 28 | 6 | 100% | 6.9 | 17.3% | 12.0% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 5.16 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 64 | 270 | 49 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 18.1% | 11.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 5.01 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 24 | 24 | 157 | 665 | 115 | 80 | 18 | 100% | 6.6 | 17.3% | 12.0% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 5.15 | 4.69 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 30 | 30 | 200 | 844 | 146 | 102 | 23 | 100% | 6.7 | 17.3% | 12.0% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 5.15 | 4.69 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 73 | 34 | 262 | 1135 | 176 | 121 | 30 | 47% | 3.6 | 15.5% | 10.7% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 3.81 | 4.59 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 26 | 200 | 866 | 134 | 93 | 23 | 47% | 3.6 | 15.5% | 10.7% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 3.81 | 4.59 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Rodriguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.67 | 13.6% | 14.2% | 2.8% | — | 5.09 | 17.1% | 5.0% | 234 | -0.58 | — | — | — |
| Will Childers R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.30 | 11.8% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.22 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 143 | -1.08 | 3.50 | 202 | 89 |
| Jacob Meador R 2027 · 5.28 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.28 | 15.6% | 14.0% | 3.1% | .301 | 6.83 | 14.7% | -6.6% | 50 | +1.55 | 5.28 | 139 | 88 |
| Ike Buxton R 2027 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .241 | 4.68 | 14.8% | -0.6% | 123 | -0.25 | 4.52 | 196 | 87 |
| Cobi Johnson R 2027 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.34 | 16.0% | 14.8% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.62 | 19.9% | 1.4% | 41 | -0.72 | 4.62 | 140 | 87 |
| Kyle Johnston R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.48 | 16.2% | 13.8% | 1.8% | .290 | 4.01 | 16.4% | 4.5% | 194 | -0.47 | 3.80 | 395 | 86 |
| Sam Stuhr R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.71 | 15.5% | 12.6% | 2.4% | .347 | 5.74 | 18.4% | 13.3% | 39 | +1.03 | 4.71 | 135 | 86 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.17 | 11.4% | 14.7% | 2.1% | .315 | 5.67 | 15.0% | -1.3% | 55 | +0.50 | 4.52 | 112 | 85 |
| Ben Ethridge R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.48 | 14.4% | 13.2% | 1.7% | .250 | 6.15 | 13.0% | 2.0% | 66 | +1.67 | 4.48 | 144 | 83 |
| Jacob Cravey R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.20 | 14.4% | 18.0% | 1.9% | .333 | 5.70 | 14.6% | 0.7% | 120 | +0.50 | 5.13 | 204 | 83 |
| Jonathan Hughes R 2028 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.59 | 12.9% | 12.5% | 1.8% | .351 | 3.81 | 16.5% | 6.2% | 146 | -0.78 | 3.50 | 219 | 83 |
| Dawson Netz R 2028 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 83 |
| Jason Savacool R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.79 | 14.9% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .275 | 5.02 | 17.2% | 4.6% | 128 | +0.23 | 4.43 | 225 | 82 |
| Kevin Gowdy R 2025 · 5.62 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.62 | 11.1% | 17.0% | 2.4% | .321 | 5.82 | 16.3% | 6.0% | 130 | +0.20 | 3.31 | 333 | 82 |
| Chase Cohen R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.67 | 15.8% | 13.0% | 2.3% | .317 | 4.66 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 85 | -0.01 | 3.68 | 263 | 82 |
| Brooks Auger R 2027 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 11.8% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .299 | 3.81 | 26.3% | 14.4% | 46 | -1.19 | 3.81 | 138 | 82 |
| Boone Whiting R 2029 · 5.21 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.21 | 11.3% | 13.9% | 2.4% | .337 | 4.78 | 10.9% | 4.8% | 132 | -0.43 | 4.78 | 227 | 82 |
| Dillon Tate R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.72 | 14.0% | 10.6% | 2.7% | .358 | 4.09 | 15.7% | 8.6% | 261 | -0.63 | 3.02 | 599 | 81 |
| Anyelo Gómez R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.85 | 17.1% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 2.69 | 24.2% | 15.6% | 68 | -2.16 | 2.69 | 145 | 81 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.55 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.24 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.31 | 3.72 | 283 | 81 |
| Ryan Degges R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.50 | 15.1% | 16.7% | 2.8% | .296 | 6.74 | 21.2% | 5.9% | 21 | +1.24 | 5.50 | 102 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 77 | 16.3% | 12.6% | 1.08 | 5.30 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |